Economic Indicators: Auto Sales - Yardeni Research
US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 1, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Debbie Johnson
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Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Car & Light Truck Sales & Production
2
Domestic Auto Inventories
3-8
December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 1.
24
US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)
22
24 Latest (15.6)
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
Nov
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
12
US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)
10
8
12
Auto Sales
Domestic Cars (2.2)
Domestic Light
10
Trucks (9.2)
Imports (4.1)
8
6
6
4
4
2
Nov 2
0
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.
Page 1 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Car & Light Truck Sales & Production
Figure 3.
18
18
DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION (million units, saar)
15
15
12
12
9
Oct 9
6
6
Domestic Auto
Production (8.9)
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 4.
10
10
DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION
9
(million units, saar)
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Autos (1.6)
1
Light Trucks (7.3)
0
2 Oct
1
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 2 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Domestic Auto Inventories
Figure 5.
5.0
DOMESTIC AUTO INVENTORY/SALES RATIO*
4.5
(month's supply)
5.0
Latest (1.1) 4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Oct
1.0
1.0
.5
.5
.0
.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Autos produced in US, Canada, and Mexico and sold in US. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 6.
308
278 248
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR & CPI:
218
USED AUTOS
188
(ratio scale)
158
128
98
68
308 278 248 218 Oct 188 158 Oct 128
98
68
38
PCED: Used Autos (135.9)
38
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks (187.3)
8
8
56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 3 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Domestic Auto Inventories
Figure 7.
700
700
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLES
650 (billion 2012 dollars, saar)
650
600
600
Total* (499.7)
550
550
500
Oct 500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* New plus used. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 8.
450
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLES (billion 2012 dollars, saar)
400
Used
350
New
300
450
400
350 Oct
300
250
250
200
200
Oct
150
150
100
100
50
50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 4 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Domestic Auto Inventories
Figure 9.
60
60
USED CAR PRICES (yearly percent change)
40
40
Used Car Prices Manheim Index (-7.0) CPI (-6.6)
20
20
0
0
AMpary
-20
-20
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Manheim, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics.
Figure 10.
60
60
MEASURES OF CONSUMER PRICES (yearly percent change)
CPI Vehicles*
New (1.9)
40
Used (-7.1)
40
20
20
Oct
0
0
Oct
-20
-20
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* New and used cars and trucks. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 5 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Domestic Auto Inventories
Figure 11.
450
450
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (trillion dollars, saar)
400
400
350
350
New Motor Vehicles*
Real
Oct
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* New domestic, foreign and light trucks. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 12.
60
60
CPI vs PCED: USED CARS (12-month percent change)
40
Used Autos
40
CPI (Oct=-7.1)
PCED (Oct=-7.1)
20
20
0
0
Oct
-20
-20
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Census Bureau
Page 6 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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