Economic Indicators: Auto Sales - Yardeni Research

US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 1, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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Debbie Johnson

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Mali Quintana

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Car & Light Truck Sales & Production

2

Domestic Auto Inventories

3-8

December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

24

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

22

24 Latest (15.6)

22

20

20

18

18

16

16

Nov

14

14

12

12

10

10



8

8

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

12

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

10

8

12

Auto Sales

Domestic Cars (2.2)

Domestic Light

10

Trucks (9.2)

Imports (4.1)

8

6

6

4

4

2

Nov 2



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Car & Light Truck Sales & Production

Figure 3.

18

18

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION (million units, saar)

15

15

12

12

9

Oct 9

6

6

Domestic Auto

Production (8.9)

3

3

0

0



-3

-3

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 4.

10

10

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION

9

(million units, saar)

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

Autos (1.6)

1

Light Trucks (7.3)

0

2 Oct

1

0

-1

-1



-2

-2

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 2 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 5.

5.0

DOMESTIC AUTO INVENTORY/SALES RATIO*

4.5

(month's supply)

5.0

Latest (1.1) 4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

Oct

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Autos produced in US, Canada, and Mexico and sold in US. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 6.

308

278 248

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR & CPI:

218

USED AUTOS

188

(ratio scale)

158

128

98

68

308 278 248 218 Oct 188 158 Oct 128

98

68

38

PCED: Used Autos (135.9)

38

CPI: Used Cars & Trucks (187.3)



8

8

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 3 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 7.

700

700

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLES

650 (billion 2012 dollars, saar)

650

600

600

Total* (499.7)

550

550

500

Oct 500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200



150

150

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* New plus used. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 8.

450

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLES (billion 2012 dollars, saar)

400

Used

350

New

300

450

400

350 Oct

300

250

250

200

200

Oct

150

150

100

100



50

50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 4 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 9.

60

60

USED CAR PRICES (yearly percent change)

40

40

Used Car Prices Manheim Index (-7.0) CPI (-6.6)

20

20

0

0

AMpary



-20

-20

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Manheim, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics.

Figure 10.

60

60

MEASURES OF CONSUMER PRICES (yearly percent change)

CPI Vehicles*

New (1.9)

40

Used (-7.1)

40

20

20

Oct

0

0

Oct



-20

-20

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* New and used cars and trucks. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 5 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 11.

450

450

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (trillion dollars, saar)

400

400

350

350

New Motor Vehicles*

Real

Oct

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150



100

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* New domestic, foreign and light trucks. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 12.

60

60

CPI vs PCED: USED CARS (12-month percent change)

40

Used Autos

40

CPI (Oct=-7.1)

PCED (Oct=-7.1)

20

20

0

0

Oct



-20

-20

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Census Bureau

Page 6 / December 1, 2023 / US Consumer Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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