Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

[Pages:168]Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

Thirty-seventh Edition

NCES 2009-062

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

Thirty-seventh Edition SEPTEMBER 2009

William J. Hussar National Center for Education Statistics Tabitha M. Bailey IHS Global Insight

NCES 2009-062

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education Arne Duncan Secretary

Institute of Education Sciences John Q. Easton Director

National Center for Education Statistics Stuart Kerachsky Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and highquality data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to

National Center for Education Statistics Institute of Education Sciences U.S. Department of Education 1990 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006-5651

September 2009

The NCES World Wide Web Home Page address is . The NCES World Wide Web Electronic Catalog is .

Suggested Citation

Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2009). Projections of Education Statistics to 2018 (NCES 2009-062). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC.

For ordering information on this report, write to

U.S. Department of Education ED Pubs P.O. Box 1398 Jessup, MD 20794-1398

or call toll free 1-877-4ED-Pubs or order online at .

Content Contact William J. Hussar (202) 502-7359 william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2018 is the 37th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degreegranting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2017. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2018. This is the first edition of the Projections of Education Statistics to include projections of first-time freshmen in public and private postsecondary institutions.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2018 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology and describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate. For further information, see appendix A.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative projections) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a range of outcomes.

Val Plisko, Associate Commissioner

Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division

September 2009

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Contents

Page

Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................................. xii

About This Report .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Guide to This Edition .................................................................................................................................. 1 Limitations of Projections ............................................................................................................................ 1

Summary of Projections ........................................................................................................................................... 3

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ...................................................................................... 5

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 5

National ......................................................................................................................................... 5

State and Regional (Public School Data) ......................................................................................... 6

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 7

Section 2. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions ...................................................... 8

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 8

Total Enrollment ............................................................................................................................ 8

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution .................................................. 9

First-Time Freshmen Enrollment .................................................................................................... 11

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 11

Section 3. High School Graduates .............................................................................................................. 12

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 12

National .......................................................................................................................................... 12

State and Regional (Public School Data) ......................................................................................... 13

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 13

Section 4. Degrees Conferred ...................................................................................................................... 14

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 14

Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient ........................................................................... 14

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 16

Section 5. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .......................................................................................... 17

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 17

Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools .............................................................................. 17

Pupil/Teacher Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 18

New Teacher Hires .......................................................................................................................... 19

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 19

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Contents--Continued

Page

Section 6. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education .................................................. 20

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 20

Current Expenditures ..................................................................................................................... 20

Accuracy of Projections ................................................................................................................... 21

Reference Figures ..................................................................................................................................................... 23

Reference Tables ....................................................................................................................................................... 41

Technical Appendixes ............................................................................................................................................... 83 Appendix A. Projection Methodology ......................................................................................................... 85

Enrollment ..................................................................................................................................... 89

High School Graduates ................................................................................................................. 110

Degrees Conferred ........................................................................................................................ 111

Elementary and Secondary Teachers ............................................................................................. 113

Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ..................................................... 119

Appendix B. Supplementary Tables .......................................................................................................... 125

Appendix C. Data Sources ........................................................................................................................ 133

Appendix D. List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 141

Appendix E. References ............................................................................................................................. 143

Appendix F. Glossary ................................................................................................................................. 145

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