Application of Time Series Analysis and Forecasting for ...
The exponential smoothed forecast for Yt+1 is the smoothed value at time t. Ft+1= Et, where Ft+1 is the forecast of Yt+1. Ft+1= Et = wYt + (1-w) Et-1. = wYt + (1-w) Ft. = Ft + w(Yt - Ft ). Exponential smoothed forecast are appropriate only when trend and seasonal components are relatively insignificant. Smoothed values will tend to lag behind ... ................
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