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『Contents』

Bank（银行） 4

Introducing Wall Street's new rainmakers 4

华尔街银行巨头高层大洗牌 5

Chinese Leader Blasts Banks 5

温家宝抨击国有银行垄断局面 7

In Asia, Fickle Millionaires Vex Banks 9

亚洲富豪“薄情寡义” 银行很受伤 10

Obscure Banks Find Profits In Iran Trade 11

小银行从西方强化对伊朗制裁中获益 12

Costs Hobble Banks' Profits 13

成本上升拖累美国银行业利润 15

Put the World in World Bank 16

把世界银行还给世界 17

Economic Analysis（经济分析） 18

Soros: Euro Crisis Is Lethal, A Break Up Is Possible 18

索罗斯：债务危机会“毒杀”欧元区 19

Stiglitz & Greenwald: Alan Greenspan Was No Genius, He Was Irrelevant 20

诺贝尔得主：格林斯潘不是天才，其政策“一点用都没有” 21

Subprime Lending Is Back, And That's Not Such A Bad Thing 22

次贷再度兴起，未必就是坏事 23

No Deal. Why you shouldn’t believe the theory behind Groupon’s business model. 24

没戏。为什么你不该轻信Groupon模式背后的理论。 26

Charlemagne: Still sickly 27

欧元区，病未痊愈 28

America’s JOBS Act——Uncuffing capitalism 29

美国的JOBS法案——为资本主义松绑 31

Investment（投资） 32

Gold Becomes Pricier Than Platinum, That's Rare And Scary 32

黄金价超铂金，岂有此理？ 33

Gold's Decade-Long Bull Run Is Dead, Gartman Says 34

黄金十年大牛市已然终结 35

Why China Loves Gold 36

中国人为什么喜欢买黄金？ 37

India's Gold Imports Set To Resume 37

印度金店罢工结束 黄金进口将恢复 38

The next leg of gold’s bull run 39

金价仍会上涨的几点理由 40

Gold Shines On 41

投机性需求减弱之际实物黄金需求依然强劲 42

Financial Time（金融时报） 43

China Yuan Inches Closer To Global Currency 43

人民币离国际化还有两年 44

Sino-Forest Seeks Court Protection 44

嘉汉林业就整体出售或重组寻求保护 45

Shanghai Cracks Door Open for Hedge Funds 46

Pimco高管：人民币仍处在升值初期阶段 46

Eurozone ministers boost firewall to $1tn 47

欧元区财长将防火墙设定为1万亿欧元 49

More Steps Considered in Push to Open Yuan 50

中国考虑建立中资企业离岸人民币贷款机制 51

Fushi Shakes Off Muddy Waters Report 52

浑水研究报告未损傅氏科普威股价 53

Buffett Feasts On Goldman Scraps 53

高盛亏本甩卖贷款资产 巴菲特接盘 54

Investors Smell Mud in The Water Fushi Tumbles 55

做空机构“浑水”威力不再 56

Stock（股票） 57

Can The Stock Market Soar With Icarus Wings? 57

美股现见顶之迹 59

Google Q1 Revs In Line; EPS Edges Street; Sets Odd 2-For-1 Split; Shr Rise 61

谷歌宣布拆股，旨在保住创始人大权 63

Thanks, China: Analysts Slaps $1000 Price Target on Apple Stock 64

苹果目标股价破1,000美元多亏中国 65

Stocks, Commodities Nosedive On European Woes: Daily Markets Wrap 66

欧洲灾难导致股市和大宗商品暴跌 66

New Europe Woes Hit Stocks 67

欧债危机担忧再起 国际金融市场重挫 68

Stocks End Five-Day Skid 70

美股反弹 结束连续五个交易日下跌局面 71

Global IPOs Boosted By Private Equity As Markets Recover-Survey 72

调查：私募股权投资公司助推全球IPO交易 72

Emerging-Market Stocks Sputter 73

新兴市场股市涨势受阻 74

Seeking 'Second' Life After Facebook 75

美二级市场股票交易来到十字路口 77

Fund（基金） 78

Eurozone ministers agree €500bn in new bailout funds 78

欧元区国家财长再增5000亿元稳定基金 79

Should private equity lower its hurdles? 80

私募股权基金应降低最低回报率吗？ 81

IPOs close out banner quarter 81

美国IPO市场一季度完美收官 82

Bond（债券） 82

Tepid Sale Adds to Spain's Woes 82

西班牙国债拍卖结果凸显欧债乏人问津困境 83

BlackRock's Street Shortcut 84

贝莱德拟出新平台 绕过券商直接交易 85

Private Debt Will Likely Weigh on Growth for Years 86

欧洲经济增长难以摆脱私人债务重压 88

Bank（银行）

Introducing Wall Street's new rainmakers

Wall Street banks appear to have finally decided it's time for change. A new crop of investment bankers are on the rise.

There are a bunch of new butts to kiss on Wall Street.

In the past few months nearly every Wall Street firm has named a new head of either its entire investment bank or one of its key businesses. Two big banks, Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C), have made significant changes to their boards of directors. German financial giant Deutsche Bank has recently overhauled its entire management ranks following the promotion of its head of investment banking, Anshu Jain, to co-CEO.

"It's unusual to have this many changes at the top of investment banking organizations," says Wall Street recruiter Russ Gerson. "There has been a fundamentally significant change going on Wall Street."

So far this year, Bank of America (BAC), Deutsche, Credit Suisse and UBS have all named new heads of their investment banks. Citigroup has shaken up its lagging mergers and acquisition by naming a co-head of that division. That bank also has a new chairman of its board, Michael E. O'Neill. Hong Kong-based HSBC also has a new head of its mergers practice. French bank Societe General, which last year was dogged by rumors that it might need a bailout, reportedly has an entire new team of bankers running its investment bank. Goldman has also made some changes in Europe, with a new head of so-called financing and capital markets in the region. And it's not just the large global banks that were battered by the financial crisis changing up their management. Eduardo Mestre, who had headed up U.S. investment banking at boutique firm Evercore, said he was giving up the role in late February. Evercore has yet to name his replacement.

Wall Street recruiters say there are a lot of reasons for the management shuffle on Wall Street. First of all, it was overdue. While nearly every bank fired its CEO during the financial crisis or leading up to it, many investment banking chiefs were able to hang on. Now, with the prospect of new business for Wall Street growing with a stock market that has been rising until recently, those executives are being pushed out, or moving on as well.

The new appointments also likely mark a shift on Wall Street. For much of the past decade, banks made much of their money from underwriting and trading debt. By the mid-2000s, debt traders and bankers from the firm's bond divisions came to run many of the businesses at financial firms. That reign appears to be over. The world appears to be over leveraged already. And Dodd-Frank and other regulations are making it tougher for banks to generate a lot of income from trading. What's more, debt traders didn't turn out to be the best at managing Wall Street's risks. "The fixed-income takeover of Wall Street was a bloody disaster," says top Wall Street recruiter Rolfe Kopelan, who heads up the Capstone Partnership.

Recruiters also say disappointing bonuses and a general feeling on gloom on Wall Street have caused some bankers to call it quits. Some recruiters say even top Wall Street bankers are feeling strapped. "Part of my theory is that these people have cashflow and liquidity problems," says John Owens, who runs CREW Advisory Services, which specializes in recruiting for Wall Street firms. "A number of bankers have recently told me I need X to cover my bills. I have never heard that before."

One example of those being elevated is Colin Fan. Fan, 39, who took over as co-head of investment banking at Deutsche, is the youngest of Wall Street's new leadership crop. Even so, Fan does come from the debt side of Wall Street. But the Canadian-born, Chinese banker, who is based in London, has spent a good deal of time working in the emerging markets as well. Before the promotion, Fan ran a division of Deutsche that generated $3.5 billion in revenue a year. A recent article in a trade publication called Fan "one of the most promising investment bankers of his generation."

华尔街银行巨头高层大洗牌

看来华尔街的银行巨头们这回终于下定决心要改革了，而第一步就是换将，一批新的投资银行家借着这股东风，正在扶摇直上。

华尔街新晋权贵开始粉墨登场。

过去几个月里，几乎每家华尔街大行都任命了新的投行或其他核心业务的主管。高盛（Goldman Sachs）和花旗（Citigroup）这两家大行对董事会人员作出了大幅调整。德国金融巨头德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）近日在将投行业务主管安舒•贾恩擢升为公司联席首席执行官之后，又对整个管理层进行了大调整。

“投行高层纷纷换将并不寻常，”华尔街猎头罗斯•吉尔森称。“华尔街正在经历根本性的重大变革。”

今年迄今为止，美国银行（Bank of America）、德意志银行、瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）和瑞士银行（UBS）都已任命了各自投行业务的新主管。花旗重整拖后腿的并购业务部，为该部门新任命了一名联席主管。该行还有一位新的董事会主席迈克尔•奥尼尔到任。总部位于香港的汇丰银行（HSBC）也任命了新的并购业务主管。法国兴业银行（Societe General）去年曾受到传言拖累，称它已经沦落到需要救助的地步。如今，据报道其投资银行业务也已开始由一个全新的银行家团队打理。高盛在欧洲也进行了一些调整，任命了该地区被称为融资和资本市场业务的新主管。而且，这波银行高管人事变动潮并非仅限于受到金融危机打击的大型国际银行。在独立投行Evercore担任美国投行部门负责人的埃杜尔多•米斯特里2月末宣布将离职。迄今Evercore都没有宣布他的继任者人选。

华尔街猎头们表示，华尔街高管大洗牌原因有很多。首先，早就该这么干了。虽然几乎每家华尔街大行都在金融危机期间或之前解雇了首席执行官，但很多投行业务主管却得以幸免。如今，随着股市上涨，华尔街的新型业务前景上升，这些高管要么被解职，要么另谋高就。

这些新的人员任命可能也标志着华尔街业务重心的转移。上个十年的大部分时间里，华尔街银行的很多利润来自于债券承销和交易。到2005年左右，债券交易员和来自银行债券业务部门的银行家们开始掌管金融机构大量的业务部门。这种统治看来已经终结。整个世界早已过度杠杆化了。而且《多德-弗兰克法案》（Dodd-Frank） 等监管规定增加了银行通过交易赚取大量利润的难度。另外，债券交易员们也并没有证明，自己就是管理华尔街风险的最佳人选。Capstone Partnership的负责人、华尔街头号猎头拉尔夫•科普兰称：“固定收益人员把持华尔街是场血腥灾难。”

猎头们还表示，令人失望的奖金以及普遍对华尔街前景感觉沮丧也促使一些银行家退出。一些猎头表示，即便是华尔街一流的银行家也感到了手头拮据。“我的一部分观点是这些人的现金流和流动性都出现了问题，”专为华尔街公司提供猎头服务的CREW Advisory Services的负责人约翰•欧文表示。“很多银行家最近告诉我，我需要X来帮我付账单。过去我可从来没听到过这样的话。”

获得升职的案例包括范昆仑。现年39岁的范昆仑被任命为德意志银行投行业务联席主管，成为华尔街新晋领导层中最年轻的一员。而且，范昆仑还是债券业务出身。这位在加拿大长大的华裔银行家目前常驻伦敦，工作的很大一部分时间都放在新兴市场上。获得升职前，范昆仑在德意志银行管理的部门创造的年营收达到了35亿美元。某行业出版物近期一篇文章将范昆仑称为“他这一代最前途无量的投资银行家之一”。

Chinese Leader Blasts Banks

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a national audience on Tuesday that China's state-controlled banks are a 'monopoly' that must be broken up, in a blunt appeal for a shake-up of the creaky financial system of the world's No. 2 economy.

In an evening broadcast on state-run China National Radio, Mr. Wen told an audience of business leaders that China's tightly controlled banking system needs to change. 'Let me be frank. Our banks earn profit too easily. Why? Because a small number of large banks have a monopoly,' said Mr. Wen, according to the transcript of the program on the broadcaster's website. 'To break the monopoly, we must allow private capital to flow into the finance sector.'

Mr. Wen's comments tap into a rich vein of popular anger against China's biggest banks that has been building in recent months online and in the media. The backlash was initially prompted by frustration at what has been perceived as banks' payments of low interest rates on deposits and indiscriminate levying of fees. It has worsened in recent weeks as lenders posted record profits, even as the economy slows and some companies struggle to access credit.

Mr. Wen's push is part of a broader set of issues over China's growth, and came on the same day that Beijing unveiled programs intended to support the development of the country's capital markets and to spread international use of the yuan. Among them, China's security regulator said it would more than triple the amount that foreigners would be allowed to invest in China's heavily restricted financial markets to $80 billion.

Mr. Wen formally came into office in 2003 with a reputation as a reformer but has acknowledged publicly his regrets that he didn't go far enough. Mr. Wen is expected to step down in a once-a-decade leadership change that begins late this year.

The country's economic expansion is set to slow in coming years after racing ahead at a torrid pace over the past decade, raising questions over whether China can switch from a model based on exports and investment to one that relies more on a rising consumer culture.

That has led to a nationwide conversation over China's tight grip on its financial system, which favors big state-owned firms but has been criticized by economists and even some reformers in China for impeding more balanced growth.

Many in China now believe a crisis will come without economic reform.

Mr. Wen's remarks, in the export-oriented province of Fujian, are further indication that long-delayed economic reform is now at least a topic for public debate. His comments challenge a widespread assumption that reform will have to wait for years until the new leadership under Xi Jinping, China's designated next party chief, is installed and has established a power base and cemented allegiances.

To realize the economic transformation, 'private companies should be encouraged to get into the financial-services industry,' said Fang Xinghai, director-general of Shanghai Municipal Financial Services Office and a former World Bank economist, in an interview at China's Boao Forum for Asia this week.

For decades, China's economic growth has relied to a large extent on the captive savings of ordinary Chinese moved at cheap rates to state-owned enterprises. The system penalizes savers and rewards borrowers, perpetuating an economic imbalance marked by high rates of investment and suppressed consumption.

That model is increasingly seen as unsustainable. To lift the economy, many economists believe China must now transfer more money to consumers and aid its service sector, which is based on private enterprise.

Some economists argue that low interest rates are partly a consequence of China's efforts to keep its currency undervalued. The central bank fears that higher rates would attract speculative capital, fueling inflation.

Meanwhile, critics say that the Big Four state banks have grown bloated and complacent by living off the guaranteed spread between deposit and lending rates, currently at around three percentage points. Critics say it has impeded innovation in products and services, and encouraged lending to state-owned enterprises that has an implicit government guarantee.

The effect is that many private companies, the main generators of jobs, are starved of capital, the critics say.

Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and ex-International Monetary Fund official, said Mr. Wen's remarks reflect 'a growing frustration among reform-minded officials that the large banks are deploying their political clout to preserve their privileges and block broader reforms to the financial system.'

Other overhauls finding increasing backing by Chinese officials include loosening state control of interest rates and proposals to improve Chinese companies' ability to conduct initial public offerings in local stock markets and to allow more openness to foreign investors.

The major question is whether increasing rhetoric and new initiatives toward economic revisions will lead to broader reform. Prior efforts have faltered amid Beijing's drive to keep a tight rein on the economy and opposition from interest groups.

'The Chinese government has said similar things for many, many years and I have yet to see drastic, concrete action,' said Victor Shih, an associate professor at Northwestern University.

In his comments Tuesday, Mr. Wen referred to a pilot program announced last week intended to legitimize portions of China's informal lending system.

The program is focused on the city of Wenzhou -- an eastern center of commerce with a reputation for fostering entrepreneurship -- and the reform push includes legitimatizing and tracking the city's wide network of informal nonbank lenders.

'Those parts of the Wenzhou trial that prove a success should immediately be expanded to the rest of the country,' he said, according to the broadcaster.

China's largest banks -- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank -- reported combined profits of 632.21 billion yuan ($99 billion) for 2011, despite a slowing economy. In their public comments, they have defended their lending to smaller companies and entrepreneurs and said they were embarking on further outreach.

Meanwhile, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it raised the total amount foreigners can bring in under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, or QFII, program to $80 billion. The program provides the only way investors can convert foreign currency to invest in China's yuan-denominated securities markets.

Foreigner investors have long clamored for greater access to China's financial markets, in large part to benefit from the yuan's appreciation. But China has been loosening constraints because its slowing economy and moderating trade balance have eased pressure on the yuan to appreciate in value.

Separately, the regulator said Tuesday the foreign fund managers would be able to repatriate 70 billion yuan from overseas to invest in mainland stocks and bonds, up from a current quota of only 20 billion yuan, in an effort to foster greater international use of the Chinese currency. The move boosts China's effort to increase the yuan's use internationally, in what is seen as a challenge to the U.S. dollar's de facto role as the global currency of choice.

Last month, Mr. Wen gave what is expected to be his final news conference marking the end of the National People's Congress, China's rubber-stamp lawmaking body. Asked whether he had work left undone, Mr. Wen responded, 'I have regrets, and things left to do.'

温家宝抨击国有银行垄断局面

中国的中央人民广播电台周二报道，中国国务院总理温家宝说，中国国有银行垄断金融业的局面必须打破。温家宝直言不讳地呼吁对中国陈旧的金融体系进行重大改革。

据中央人民广播电台周二晚间播出的一档节目报道，温家宝对一批企业家说，中国受到严格管制的银行体系需要变革。中国广播网的节目文字记录显示，温家宝说，其实我这里坦率地讲，我们银行获得利润太容易了。为什么呢？就是少数几大银行处于垄断地位。我们现在所以解决民营资本进入金融，根本来讲，还是要打破垄断。

温家宝上述讲话和近几个月来网络以及媒体上对中国几家大型银行日益增大的民怨有密切关系。这股民怨最初是由存款利率较低以及银行乱收费现象所引发的。近几周来，就在银行纷纷宣布利润达到创纪录水平之际，中国的整体经济增速却在放缓，部分企业难以获得贷款，这更加重了民众对银行的怨气。

温家宝提出的银行业改革是关乎中国经济增长的一系列问题之一。就在温家宝上述讲话被报道出来的同一天，北京推出了多项政策，旨在支持中国资本市场的发展，进一步促进人民币国际化进程。其中一项政策是中国证监会3日晚间宣布，将合格境外机构投资者(QFII)的投资额度增加至800亿美元，这一额度是原来的三倍多。

温家宝2003年上任之初因致力改革而声誉卓著，但后来他也公开承认自己对改革力度不足感到遗憾。外界预计在今年晚些时候开始的10年一次的领导层换届中温家宝将卸任。

在过去10年经济高速增长之后，未来几年中国经济扩张的速度将会放缓，外界因此质疑，中国能否从基于出口和投资的增长模式向更多依赖国内消费的模式转型。

这导致全国范围内掀起一场对国家牢牢控制金融体系这一现状的讨论。中国的现有金融体系偏向大型国有企业，这遭到多位经济学家甚至是一些改革者的批评，他们认为这种体系阻碍了经济平衡增长。

很多人现在认为，如果不进行经济改革，一场危机将会发生。

温家宝在经济以出口为导向的福建省发表上述讲话进一步表明，拖延已久的经济改革现在至少是一个公共讨论的话题。温家宝的讲话挑战了一种普遍假设，即改革将会停滞数年，直到以习近平为首的中国新一届领导班子上台且巩固权力基础并获得支持之后才会继续。

上海市金融服务办公室主任、世界银行(World Bank)前经济学家方星海本周在博鳌亚洲论坛接受记者采访时说，想要实现经济转型，应该鼓励民营企业进入金融服务业。

数十年来，中国经济增长在很大程度上依赖于以较低的存款利率吸收普通民众储蓄然后将资金贷给国有企业的模式。这种模式让储户吃亏，让借款人得利，以投资率高企、消费被抑制为特征的经济失衡因此难以消除。

越来越多的人认为这种模式不可持续。许多经济学家们认为，要提振经济，中国现在必须将更多资金转移给消费者并帮助服务业，而民营企业正是服务业的基础。

一些经济学家认为，造成低利率现象的部分原因是中国持续低估人民币币值的种种举措。中国央行担心较高的利率会吸引投机性资本流入并助推通胀水平。

批评人士还说，四大国有银行由于能够依靠存贷款利率之间稳定的息差（目前约为三个百分点）轻松过活，它们变得日益臃肿而自满。批评者说，存贷差较大阻碍了金融产品和服务的创新，同时鼓励银行将资金贷给拥有政府隐性担保的国有企业。

批评者说，这种现象造成的后果就是创造了大部分就业机会的民营企业极度缺乏资金。

康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前官员普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，温家宝的讲话反映了“具有改革意识的官员对大型银行运用其政治影响力维护特权、阻止金融体系进一步改革的现象越来越感到沮丧”。

其它日益得到中国官员支持的重大改革包括放宽国家对利率的管制，提高中国企业在国内股市进行首次公开募股(IPO)的能力，以及提高对外国投资者的开放程度。

外界关心的主要问题是，政府在经济改革方面不断放出的言论和种种新倡议是否会导致更广泛的改革。由于中央试图严控经济，且各利益集团提出反对，此前的种种改革努力无法有力深入进行。

美国西北大学(Northwestern University)副教授史宗瀚(Victor Shih)说，类似内容中国政府已经谈了很多年了，我还没有看到具体的、激进的举措。

温家宝在周二的讲话中还提到了上周宣布的一项旨在使中国民间非正式借贷体系部分合法化的试点方案。

这项试点方案主要在温州推出，改革内容包括使该市规模庞大的民间借贷网络合法化，并跟踪了解其合法化后的运作情况。温州是中国东部的商业中心，以擅长培育企业家精神而著称。

据中央人民广播电台报道，温家宝说，温州的试点，有些成功的，要在全国推广，有些立即可以在全国进行。

尽管中国经济增长放缓，中国四大国有银行中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)、中国银行(Bank of China)、中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)和中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)公布的2011年利润总额仍高达人民币6322.1亿元(约合990亿美元)。四大国有银行纷纷公开替自己辩护，称他们积极向中小企业和企业家贷款，并称他们正着手进一步主动增加对中小企业的资金支持。

与此同时，中国证券监督管理委员会（简称：中国证监会）说，它将把外国投资者通过“合格境外机构投资者”(Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, 简称：QFII)机制引入中国的投资额度增加到800亿美元。QFII给外国投资者提供了惟一一条将外币兑换成人民币投资于国内以人民币计价的证券市场的渠道。

外国投资者早就希望能进一步涉足中国的金融市场，这在很大程度上是为了能受益于不断升值的人民币。但中国所以放宽限制是因为中国经济放缓、进出口贸易进一步平衡缓解了人民币面临的升值压力。

此外，中国证监会周二宣布，将人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)在香港所募集、投资内地股市和债市的人民币资金的额度从目前的200亿元增加至700亿元，此举旨在进一步推动人民币国际化。这一政策进一步加大了中国提高人民币国际化程度的努力，被外界视为对美元这一事实上的首选全球货币的地位构成了挑战。

上个月，在十一届全国人大五次会议结束之后，温家宝举行了任期内的最后一场记者会。当被记者问及如何评价自己的工作时，温家宝说，还有许多工作没有做完，许多事情没有办好，有不少遗憾。

In Asia, Fickle Millionaires Vex Banks

The private bankers who have descended on Asia hoping to tap into the world's fastest expanding pool of millionaires are finding that those clients aren't very big on relationships.

The new generation of Asian millionaires are giving some bankers fits, demanding high returns, trading fast, frequently switching to rivals or spreading their money among several companies. That behavior upends the classic private-banking model of developing long-lasting associations with individual clients mainly interested in preserving wealth for their families.

The attraction of Asia for private bankers is clear: Led by India and China, Asia's millionaire ranks rose 10% to 3.3 million in 2011, just behind the 3.4 million in North America and ahead of Europe's 3.1 million, according to the Merrill Lynch/Capgemini Asia-Pacific wealth report issued last year.

Consulting firm McKinsey & Co. expects the number of rich people in Asia to rise 14% a year through 2015 compared with 4% growth in Europe and 5% in North America.

But private bankers are discovering how different their Asian clients are.

While clients in the West want to increase their wealth, they also are concerned with keeping what they have by sticking to conservative investments, and focusing on estate- and tax-planning strategies.

In Asia, clients also tend to be first generation rich, who want to make more money, rather than preserve it. They seek, as one banker said, 'private brokers not private bankers.'

'Clients expect yield at a shorter time frame, and sometimes double-digit returns,' said Jeffrey Tang, a director at consultants Towers Watson.

McKinsey says the average Asian client has three to four private bankers, and many clients added additional bankers after the financial crisis.

'I have one client who now has more than 10 private bankers, saying he doesn't want to depend on any one bank and risk his assets,' said Kenny Lam, McKinsey's head of Asia private banking. 'Asian clients are more interested in the next hot product rather than preserving wealth and are more likely to switch to the next banker with a better investment idea.'

The competitive environment has led some smaller private bankers to pull out of the region, and industry executives expect more firms will leave the market. Last year, Australia's Macquarie Group Ltd. sold its three-year-old Asian private-banking business to Julius Baer Group AG. Bank of America Corp. sold its relatively small Korean and Australian businesses, and HSBC Holdings Ltd. sold its Japanese private-banking operations to Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group Inc.

'To be successful, you need to have critical mass, and because of this, there will be further consolidation in the private-banking sector [in Asia],' said Thomas Meier, chief executive of Julius Baer Asia.

'Everyone thinks they need to be in Asia, because of China, but it's difficult to make money,' said Eduardo Leemann, head of Zurich-based Falcon Private Bank, the former private-banking arm of American International Group Inc. Mr. Leemann said Falcon, now owned by Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Co., is breaking even.

'This is a region that's full of challenges, and high costs, but Europe isn't doing well, and Japan and China are the second- and third-biggest wealth pools in the world,' said Kathryn Shih, chief executive for wealth management in the Asia Pacific region at UBS AG.

Private banking is less profitable in Asia than in Europe and the U.S., according to data from nine leading industry players compiled by McKinsey. In Asia, private banks make around 15 cents to 20 cents in profit for every $100 that clients have under management, compared with the U.S. and Europe where the profit runs from 25 cents to 30 cents per $100 under management, according to data from McKinsey.

The large global banks that are willing to deal with those challenges because of the growth potential stand to benefit most.

Ms. Shih said UBS, which has around 1,000 'client advisers' in the region, hired 140 private bankers in the Asia Pacific region last year and have already hired 'dozens' this year. In the past year, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley have moved their international private banking heads to Hong Kong.

According to data from Publication Private Banker International, which is widely cited in the industry, UBS had the most Asia-Pacific assets under management in 2010, followed by Citigroup Inc, HSBC and then Credit Suisse. At 12th place, Julius Baer held the highest asset ranking among pure private banks.

亚洲富豪“薄情寡义” 银行很受伤

希望吸引全球增长最迅速的百万富翁群体而来到亚洲的私人银行家开始发现，亚洲的客户并不太看重与一家公司保持关系。

亚洲新一代百万富翁大大出乎一些私人银行家的意料，他们要求高回报，交易速度快，还常常转到对手公司或将财富交由多家公司打理。这种做法终结了私人银行业与客户建立持久关系的传统模式，传统的客户主要关注于为家族守住财富。

亚洲对私人银行家的吸引力一目了然：据美林(Merrill Lynch)与凯捷(Capgemini)去年联合发表的亚太财富报告显示，以印度和中国为首，2011年亚洲百万富翁人数增加了10%，至330万，仅次于北美的340万人，超过了欧洲的310万人。

咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey & Co.)预计，2015年前，亚洲富豪人数每年将增加14%，而欧洲年增幅为4%，北美为5%。

不过，私人银行家开始发现亚洲客户与西方传统客户有着巨大的区别。

西方客户希望财富升值，但他们也关心保住现有资产的价值，他们常常坚持保守的投资，并将重点放在遗产安排和避税战略上。

在亚洲，富豪客户也常常是白手起家，他们希望赚更多的钱，而不是守住手里的钱。正如一位银行家说的，亚洲的富豪想要的是私人经纪商，而不是私人银行家。

咨询公司韬睿惠悦(Towers Watson)主管Jeffrey Tang说，客户希望在更短的时间内获得收益，有时甚至是两位数的回报率。

麦肯锡说，亚洲客户平均每人有三到四名私人银行家，金融危机之后，很多客户还额外增加了银行家。

麦肯锡亚洲私人银行业主管Kenny Lam说，我有一位客户现在有10多个私人银行家，他说他不想依靠任何一家银行，将自己的资产置于风险之中；亚洲客户更感兴趣的是能够赚钱的新产品，而不是守住财富，他们更可能转到其他有更好投资建议的银行家。

激烈的竞争导致一些较小的私人银行家从该地区撤出，行业内的高管预计将有更多公司离开这一市场。去年，澳大利亚的麦格理集团(Macquarie Group Ltd.)将其运营了三年的亚洲私人银行业务卖给了瑞士宝盛(Julius Baer Group AG)。美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)出售了其规模相对较小的韩国和澳大利亚业务。汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings Ltd.)将其日本私人银行业务卖给了瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse Group Inc.)。

瑞士宝盛首席执行长迈尔(Thomas Meier)说，要想获得成功，就需要有足够数量的客户，因此，亚洲的私人银行业将会出现进一步的整合。

总部设在苏黎世的私人银行Falcon Private Bank Ltd.的负责人利文德(Eduardo Leemann)说，因为中国的缘故，人人都觉得应该来亚洲，但是要赚钱很难。Falcon Private Bank Ltd.曾是美国国际集团(American International Group Inc.)旗下的私人银行业务部门，现在归阿布扎比国际石油投资公司（International Petroleum Investment Co.所有。利文德说Falcon正逐渐实现收支平衡。

瑞银全球财富管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)亚太区负责人施许怡敏（KathrynShih）说，这个地区充满挑战，经营成本很高，但是欧洲市场情形不佳，日本和中国是世界第二大和第三大财富集中地。

根据麦肯锡(McKinsey)编制的来自九家行业领军企业的数据，私营银行在亚洲的盈利状况不如在欧洲和美国。麦肯锡的数据显示，在亚洲，私有银行平均从客户托付管理的100美元中获利约15至20美分，相比之下，在美国和欧洲的利润约为每100美元25到30美分。

由于该地区的发展潜力，一些大型的全球性银行愿意应对这些挑战，它们有望获利最多。

施许怡敏说，瑞银在该地区有约1000位客户顾问，去年该银行在亚太地区雇佣了 140位私人银行家，今年也已经雇佣了数十人。在过去一年，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)将多名国际私人银行负责人调到了香港。

根据《国际私人银行家》(Private Banker International)杂志的数据（其数据经常被业内引用），2010年瑞银在亚太地区管理的资产规模最大，排在瑞银后面的是花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、汇丰和瑞士信贷。瑞士宝盛排名第十二位，在纯私人银行中资产规模排在第一位。

Obscure Banks Find Profits In Iran Trade

As Western sanctions on Iran have grown tighter, some small banks have found a lucrative niche financing what remains of the legal trade with the Islamic Republic.

Top-tier financial institutions including Societe Generale SA and Rabobank Group have stepped back from business with Iran in recent months, citing increased political risk and logistical hassles that attend even legal trade with the country.

As a result, the remaining players are commanding higher fees and offering increasingly complicated services. Like Russia's First Czech-Russian Bank LLC and China's Bank of Kunlun Co. Ltd., they are typically small, obscure financial institutions often based in countries historically friendly to Iran.

The firms and other intermediaries still brokering these trades are charging more than 6% per transaction for legitimate trade deals with Iran, on top of traditional banking fees, according to traders and bankers knowledgeable with the process.

That is as much as triple the fees typically charged by Arab Gulf banks two years ago, before the United States and European Union significantly stiffened sanctions, according to Iranian businessmen.

'Companies still willing to facilitate Iran's global business are charging hefty fees to do so,' says Trevor Houser, a partner at New York-based economic research firm Rhodium Group. 'And those fees hit Iranians much more than their foreign customers or suppliers.'

EU exports to Iran totaled around 10.4 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in 2011. In 2010, Iranian trade with China was estimated at 16.9 billion euros.

While relatively small, the markets are large enough to attract smaller institutions. In February, some traders started flocking to First Czech-Russian Bank after word spread that it had started servicing Iran trade facilities, according to Iran trade professionals. In March, Roman Popov, the chairman and majority owner of the bank, was elected to lead the Russian-Iranian Business Council, promising to increase bilateral trade.

In Geneva, Hinduja Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., handles Iranian food transactions for Swiss companies. Achille Deodato, a manager for group and business control, said the bank remains involved 'with the authorization of Swiss authorities' in trade involving letters of credit and 'bulk agricultural commodities.'

Even in countries with historic ties to Iran, the subject is touchy. A spokeswoman for First Czech-Russian Bank declined to discuss the group's Iran business. Bank of Kunlun didn't respond to requests for comment, and a representative at state-owned China National Petroleum Corp., which controls Bank of Kunlun, said he was unaware of the matter.

Other institutions involved in financing legitimate trade with Iran declined to speak on the record, saying they feared publicity could lead the U.S. Treasury to increase its scrutiny of their U.S.-dollar operations.

'Legal or illegal, it doesn't matter. It's now political. Nobody wants a headache, and Iranian business is now a headache,' said a Gulf official working on Iran policy.

Until recently, trade with Iran was still straightforward. Businesses signed deals with Iranian counterparts, used Iranian banks to clear payments, and could readily convert rials into euros, dollars or pounds.

小银行从西方强化对伊朗制裁中获益

在西方对伊朗强化制裁的过程中，一些小银行给自己找到了一个有利可图的小众市场，那就是为外界与伊朗之间仍然合法的贸易提供融资。

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)与荷兰合作银行(Rabobank Group)等一线金融机构已在近几个月退出对伊业务，因为即使是服务于合法的对伊贸易，它们所面临的政治风险和物流困难也已增加。

因此，没有退出的银行提高了收费，所提供的服务也越来越复杂。这些银行一般都是名不见经传的小型金融机构，总部常常位于历史上跟伊朗友好的国家，俄罗斯的First Czech-Russian Bank LLC和中国的昆仑银行就属于这类机构。

据了解这些银行运作流程的贸易商和银行从业者说，对于合法的对伊贸易，这些银行和其他仍在服务对伊贸易的中介机构除了收取传统的银行服务费以外，每笔业务还另外加收相当于交易额6%以上的费用。

据伊朗商人说，这些银行总的收费最高可达阿拉伯海湾国家的银行两年前一般收费水平的三倍。当时美国和欧盟还没有大幅强化对伊朗的制裁。

纽约经济研究公司Rhodium Group的合伙人豪泽(Trevor Houser)说，那些仍愿为伊朗的国际业务提供服务的公司正为其这项服务收取高昂费用，而伊朗人承担的部分远远高于外国客户或供应商承担的部分。

2011年欧盟对伊出口总额在104亿欧元（约合136亿美元）左右。2010年，伊朗对华贸易估计为169亿欧元。

对伊贸易市场虽然相对较小，但足以吸引小型金融机构介入。据伊朗外贸人士说，今年二月份，在听说First Czech-Russian Bank已开始为伊朗贸易公司提供服务的消息后，一些贸易商开始向该行求助。三月份，该行董事长和大股东波波夫(Roman Popov)被选为俄罗斯-伊朗贸易理事会(Russian-Iranian Business Council)会长，他承诺会扩大俄伊双边贸易。

在日内瓦，Hinduja Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.为瑞士企业处理对伊食品贸易。这家银行负责集团与业务控制的经理德奥达托(Achille Deodato)说，该行“获得了瑞士当局的授权”，仍在从事涉及信用证和“大宗农产品”的对伊贸易。

即使是在与伊朗有历史姻缘的国家，这也是个敏感话题。First Czech-Russian Bank一位发言人拒绝谈论该行的伊朗业务。昆仑银行没有回复记者的置评请求。国有企业中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corp.)控股昆仑银行，该集团一位代表说他对昆仑银行开展对伊业务之事不知情。

其他为合法的对伊贸易提供融资服务的机构也拒绝公开表态，称它们担心公开之后美国财政部可能会更加密切地跟踪它们的美元业务

一位参与制定对伊政策的海湾国家官员说，合不合法并不重要，现在这是个政治问题，没有谁想惹上麻烦，而对伊贸易现在就是一个麻烦。

直到不久前，对伊贸易仍然是简便易行的。外国企业同伊朗企业签署协议，用伊朗银行结算账款，并能将伊朗货币里亚尔方便地兑换成欧元、美元或英镑。

但从去年12月末至今年1月，美国和欧盟不断实施制裁措施，以增加对伊朗的压力，迫使其改变核政策。新的制裁包括封杀伊朗央行(它曾是伊朗所有石油交易的清算行)，以及禁止24家伊朗银行使用国际银行转账系统等。

在伊朗，Saman Bank、Karafarin Bank和Pasargad Bank这三家小型私人银行已接替受制裁的大银行，发挥其职能。这几家银行没有回复置评请求。

伊朗境内外都存在金融服务需求。医药、食品和其他被认为对于伊朗人民日常福利不可或缺的物资不在美国制裁范围内。欧盟将在今年夏季同美国一道禁止从伊朗进口石油，但根据中国和俄罗斯遵守的联合国规则，能源出口不在制裁范围内。

在没有正规银行渠道的情况下，制裁规则的变化让人对哪些交易有利可图（甚至是可以进行）产生了新的疑问。违反美国对伊制裁措施的企业有可能被禁入美国市场，它们的美国子公司或将遭到起诉。

荷兰合作银行和法国兴业银行回应说，它们已经停止为对伊贸易服务或限制了贸易金融。据伊朗外贸专业人士说，韩国友利银行(Woori Bank)和韩国中小企业银行(Industrial Bank of Korea)也采取了相同措施。本报未能联系到这两家韩国银行置评。

据阿拉伯国家的官员和银行业人士透露，阿拉伯海湾国家的很多银行已冻结了与伊朗的长期关系。过去几周，阿联酋和卡塔尔两国央行分别让自己所规管的金融机构停止为伊朗贸易活动提供融资服务，无论这些交易属于何种性质的合约。

制裁效果令人不寒而栗。DF Deutsche Forfait AG为与伊朗有贸易往来的欧盟企业提供金融服务。据该公司统计，由于与伊朗做生意的成本不断上涨，那些长期地区供应商被迫出局。该公司一位高管说，德国一些医疗设备出口商近来因为找不到办理业务的银行，不得不取消贸易合约。

迫于新制裁规定，伊朗贸易伙伴已求助于那些能绕开正常银行渠道的隐晦金融机制。

其中一种方法被称作“货币兑换”，要求购买外国货物的伊朗买家在德黑兰一家银行付款，而卖家则会在国外一家银行收到同等金额的款项。有中间人在这两家银行间平衡这笔交易。

还有一种可办理伊朗外贸交易的渠道叫做“福费廷”(forfaiting)，即第三方从出口商那里购买信用证，并承担从进口商那里收货款的责任。

DF Deutsche Forfait从2000年开始为伊朗外贸活动提供福费廷服务，并说目前仍活跃在这个市场上。该公司在电子邮件中说，只要交易参与方不受制裁约束并且从事的是合法商品交易，它就会和客户合作。

该公司拒绝就这类服务的成本置评，但一位知情人士说，对于伊朗交易，收费一般在6%至8%之间。

Costs Hobble Banks' Profits

U.S. banks are having trouble losing weight.

Rising expenses are thwarting banks' repeated attempts at belt-tightening, putting added pressure on an industry struggling to find new ways to boost profits.

Banks in 2011 closed lackluster branches, moved employees to less-costly locations and initiated cost-cutting campaigns with code names such as Keyvolution. But expenses stemming from the financial crisis─the slow pace of foreclosures, litigation and compliance with an array of regulations─are frustrating cost-cutting efforts.

The failure to bring costs under better control raises the possibility of further layoffs, on top of tens of thousands already announced by large financial companies in the second half of 2011.

The expense dilemma also underscores the underlying weaknesses of the U.S. banking industry, even as investors cheer a 2012 bounce-back rally in bank stocks. Much of the industry's recent profitability has come from the release of cash that had been set aside to cover bad loans, rather than from business growth.

Many financial firms will try again to show they are clamping down on costs when they release first-quarter earnings, starting Friday with reports from J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +1.89% & Co. and Wells Fargo WFC +1.19% & Co. 'It's an enormous focus,' said Scott Siefers, a banking analyst for Sandler O'Neill + Partners LP.

Expenses at U.S. banks and thrifts increased each quarter last year after hitting a post-financial-crisis low during the three months ended in March 2011, according to SNL Financial data. The total number of people employed by the top 25 U.S. banks climbed 2% from a year earlier to 1.79 million at the end of 2011, as financial institutions bulked up their troubled-mortgage units and legal departments.

For example, the number of people handling soured real-estate loans for Bank of America Corp. BAC +3.50% ballooned to 50,000 from 30,000 during 2011. Those people now occupy at least 4.5 million square feet of office space around the country, the equivalent of 78 football fields.

The increase came despite a plan Bank of America announced last fall to cut 30,000 jobs in its retail banking unit over three years. The bank has been weighing thousands of additional cuts in investment banking and wealth management.

Bank of America isn't expected to announce further reductions when it reports earnings next week because it needs more time to make final decisions, said people familiar with the matter.

Revenue in 2011 at U.S. banks and thrifts dropped from year-earlier levels in every quarter but the third, SNL data show, reflecting both soft loan growth and new rules that limit the fees banks can collect.

'The ability to control costs will be a key differentiator in profitability over the next two years,' Credit Suisse banking analyst Moshe Orenbuch said in a research note this week.

J.P. Morgan Chase, the nation's largest bank by assets and widely considered the healthiest of the big lenders, is expected to report that profit dropped from a year ago and costs rose in the first quarter, because of compliance with regulatory matters and litigation relating to mortgage issues.

The bank recently pulled back on an expansion plan, halving the number of locations it plans to open over the next five years. It has also said it is cutting 1,000 jobs in its investment bank.

Costs aren't an issue just for the giants. Regional banks also are mounting cost-control programs, the progress of which analysts are keeping an eye on.

FirstMerit Corp., FMER +1.30% an Akron, Ohio, bank that has about 200 branches in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Chicago, may provide a first peek at the progress of its cost efforts with its earnings release, set for April 24.

Analysts also will be watching Comerica Inc. CMA +2.25% The Dallas-based bank, with branches in five states, said it has identified about 250 ways to boost revenue and lower costs, including reducing the number of vendors it uses to 300 from more than 450.

Some regional banks already have been through major cost-cutting programs. Cleveland bank KeyCorp KEY +0.72% last year notched $317 million of an expected $375 million in savings in a program dubbed Keyvolution.

For example, the bank says it has saved more than $2.5 million by setting copier machines to print on both sides of paper and taking actions that encourage employees to share documents electronically.

Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, has made cost control a top priority under Chief Executive Brian Moynihan. But operating expenses rose 3% in 2011 from the previous year, to $67 billion, while revenue dropped 15%. Litigation costs more than doubled to $5.6 billion.

Because Bank of America isn't foreclosing fast enough on delinquent properties, assessments imposed largely by government-backed mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose 800%, to $1.8 billion in 2011.

Penalties can be assessed if a lawn has to be cut or the house maintained longer than expected.

Much of the bank's added expense is locked up in the division that handles troubled real-estate loans. The loan cleanup effort eats up $2 billion a quarter, according to the bank.

Another big U.S. bank struggling to get a handle on expenses is Citigroup Inc., C +3.10% the No. 3 lender as measured by assets. Its operating costs grew 7% in 2011 to $50 billion, even as revenue tumbled 10% to $78 billion.

Citigroup said some of that spending was a necessary investment in systems and personnel following a sharp cutback during the financial crisis. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange and other unexpected costs, Citigroup has told analysts to expect an expense reduction of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in 2012.

It's hard for banks to cut costs as they face continued fallout from the financial crisis. At SunTrust Banks Inc., fourth-quarter expenses were flat despite a cost initiative executives refer to as a 'Playbook for Profitable Growth.' Though employee compensation declined at the Atlanta-based bank, costs in other areas, such as collections, rose. 'We're really tightening down,' SunTrust CEO Bill Rogers told analysts in January.

成本上升拖累美国银行业利润

美资银行“瘦身”不易。

不断上升的支出令银行紧缩开支的多次尝试以失败告终，这给苦苦寻找利润增长点的银行业增加了新的压力。

多家银行在2011年关闭了业绩不佳的分支机构，将员工迁往成本较低的地点办公，并启动了一系列成本削减计划。但金融危机造成的各项开支令削减成本的种种努力受挫。造成开支上升的因素包括：止赎程序缓慢；诉讼活动以及遵守一系列监管规定令成本上升。

未能更好地控制成本令进一步裁员成为可能。2011年下半年大型金融机构已经宣布了数万人的裁员计划。

就在投资者为2012年银行股股价的反弹而欢呼之际，如何降低开支这一难题凸显了美国银行业的根本弱点。银行业近期的利润主要来自原先计提的不良贷款准备金得以释放，而非业务增长所产生的收入。

在发布一季度收益报告时，很多金融机构将再次努力表明它们正在压缩成本。本周五率先公布一季度业绩的是摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)和富国银行(Wells Fargo)。美资券商Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP的银行业分析师塞弗斯(Scott Siefers)说，这是外界高度关注的焦点。

金融信息提供商SNL Financial的数据显示，截至2011年3月底的这一季度结束以后，美国银行和储蓄机构的开支去年每个季度都在上升，他们的开支在那个季度降至金融危机发生以来的最低点。截至2011年末，全美最大的25家银行雇佣的员工总数同比上升2%，至179万人，因为金融机构扩大了问题抵押贷款(troubled-mortgage)处理部门和法务部门的规模。

例如，美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)负责处理房地产问题贷款的员工在2011年从3万人上升至5万人。这些员工在美国国内占用的办公面积至少有450万平方英尺，这大致相当于78个美式橄榄球场的占地面积。

虽然这一业务部门的员工人数大量增加，但美国银行去年秋天宣布在三年的时间内将把零售银行部门的员工裁减3万人。该行还在考虑将投资银行部和财富管理部的员工减少数千人。

据知情人士透露，预计美国银行下周公布收益时不会再宣布裁员计划，因为该行需要更多时间来做最后决定。

SNL的数据显示，除了去年第三季度，美国的银行和储蓄机构在2011年每个季度的收入都出现了同比下滑。这既是贷款增速疲软的反映，也是因为新的监管规定限制了银行的收费。

瑞信(Credit Suisse)银行业分析师Moshe Orenbuch本周在一份研究报告中说，未来两年成本控制能力将成为区分各家银行盈利能力大小的一个关键。

预计摩根大通将公布一季度利润同比下滑、成本上升，主要是受合规问题以及抵押贷款相关诉讼案拖累。按资产计算，摩根大通是美国最大的银行，外界普遍认为它是大型银行中财务状况最好的。

该行最近缩小了一项扩张计划的规模，将未来五年内计划开设的网点数减半。该行还说，将在其投行部门内削减1,000个工作岗位。

不止巨头们需要面对成本问题。地区性银行也开始推出成本控制计划，分析人士则在密切关注这类计划的进展情况。

位于俄亥俄州阿克伦市(Akron)的FirstMerit Corp.在该州、宾夕法尼亚州和芝加哥市约有200个分支机构。该行定于4月24日公布业绩报告，届时可能初次揭示该行成本控制措施的进展情况。

分析人士还将密切关注Comerica Inc.。该行位于得克萨斯州达拉斯市，在五个州设有分支机构。该行说，已经找到约250种增加收入、降低成本的方法，其中包括将使用的供应商从逾450个减少到300个。

一些地区性银行已经实施了重大成本削减措施。位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰市的银行KeyCorp去年凭藉所谓的“Keyvolution”计划而节省了3.17亿美元，该行计划将成本降低3.75亿美元。

举例来讲，该行说，通过将复印机设置为双面打印模式和采取措施鼓励员工通过电子方式分享文档而节约了逾250万美元。

美国银行在首席执行长莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan)的领导下，已经将成本控制作为一项首要任务。不过，2011年该行运营支出同比增加了3%，至670亿美元，而收入下滑了15%。诉讼成本则增加了一倍以上，至56亿美元。按资产计算，美国银行是美国第二大银行。

由于美国银行对违约房产进行止赎的速度不够快，2011年，罚款增加了800%，至18亿美元。罚款主要是由政府支持的抵押贷款公司房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)征收的。

如果一座房屋的草坪长时间未修剪或房屋年久失修，可能会对其征收罚款。

该行增加的大部分支出来自处理问题房地产贷款的部门。据该行说，对这类贷款的清理每个季度需要花费20亿美元。

另外一个努力控制支出的大型美国银行是花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)。2011年，该行在收入大幅下滑10%、至780亿美元之际，运营成本还是上升了7%，至500亿美元。按资产计算，花旗是美国第三大银行。

花旗说，其中一些支出是在金融危机期间大幅精简后系统和人员方面的必要投资。花旗对分析人士说，不包括汇率的影响和其他意外成本，预计2012年支出将减少25亿至30亿美元。

在面临金融危机的持续影响之际，银行很难削减成本。尽管制定了高管们称之为“实现可盈利增长的剧本”的成本削减方案，但SunTrust Banks Inc.四季度支出同比还是持平。虽然这家位于亚特兰大市的银行员工薪酬降低，托收等其他方面的成本却有所上升。SunTrust首席执行长罗杰斯(Bill Rogers)今年1月对分析人士说，我们确实在节约开支。

Put the World in World Bank

The World Bank's executive directors are now deliberating on the choice of a new leader for the coming half decade. Since its founding in 1946, the bank has always been headed by an American, and U.S. President Barack Obama's nominee, Dr. Jim Yong Kim, is a superb medical expert and a proven leader of a world-class university. But times are changing and the bank's next head will need access to money, ideas and experience that only a background in the emerging world can provide.

Until a decade ago, the keys to achieving the World Bank's basic mission-to enhance the development of the poor and underdeveloped countries-were the money and ideas supplied by the advanced economies. So a U.S. president made sense, as he could help rally the widest possible political, financial and academic support for the World Bank from those countries. The World Bank owes its past success to brilliant leadership from Robert S. McNamara, James D. Wolfensohn and the outgoing Robert B. Zoellick, among many others.

To choose leaders for the future, however, we must consider the economic changes of the past decade, especially those which accelerated after the 2008-09 financial crisis.

During this period, many emerging market economies finally embarked on the road to economic prosperity, bringing billions of poor people along with them. Meanwhile, the advanced economies have mired themselves in various financial and fiscal bogs. As a result, emerging markets are better positioned than ever to provide the World Bank its two essentials-money and ideas.

Many emerging market economies are already prepared to assist others who need money. As much as $5 trillion in investment funds is in the hands of these early developers, including Brazil, China and Russia. In contrast, most advanced economies are cash-constrained due to their ongoing crises, which will likely take years more to resolve.

Yes, central banks in the advanced economies can continue creating their own money so they appear to be rich in cash, but doing so endlessly is suicidal for the global economy and not an answer to development problems. In general, today's poor economies do not appreciate and will not benefit from the continued practice of loose monetary policy in the advanced economies.

As with money, the gap between developed and developing countries in good ideas has shrunk. Many leaders in emerging market economies have finally grasped the correct concepts for development, often after becoming diligent students of development experts from the World Bank.

China is perhaps the best example here. In the last few decades, when the World Bank spoke, Chinese leaders listened attentively instead of rebutting loudly. More importantly, they took the messages from World Bank officials to their hearts, adopting the immediately useful ones and leaving others for future consideration.

Countries like China can now be good mentors in turn to less developed countries. The best students should be the best teachers; they know first hand which ideas work and which do not.

Critics of my proposal will protest that qualifications, not country of origin, should determine who is right for the job. I agree. The World Bank needs a capable president from a successful emerging market economy not so some box can be checked, but because such a leader will find it easier to communicate with emerging market economies, raise funds from them and make use of their best ideas. A leader from the emerging economies would understand on a personal level the setbacks and successes of these nations, and dedicate himself to institutional reforms far deeper than disaster-mitigation.

It serves the mission of the World Bank better to have an able leader from an emerging market economy than from the U.S. By supporting such a leader, the Obama administration can demonstrate its recognition of the emerging world's rising global leadership. Losing a U.S.-backed nominee is actually gaining a better position for the U.S., as well as for the World Bank, in a new and changing world.

Mr. Li is director of the Center for China in the World Economy and the Mansfield Freeman professor of economics at Tsinghua University.

把世界银行还给世界

世界银行(World Bank)的执行董事们正在考虑该行下一任行长的人选。自从世界银行1946年创立以来，行长之位一直由美国人担任，而美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)提名的金永吉(Jim Yong Kim)博士是一位卓越的医学专家，也是一所世界级大学的称职校长。但是时代正在发生着变化，世界银行的下一任行长需要有能力获得资金、理念和经验，而这种能力只有发展中国家的出身背景才能提供。

直到10年前，实现世界银行的基本使命──促进贫穷和不发达国家的发展──所需关键要素还是发达经济体所提供的资金和理念。所以，那时选择美国人担任世行行长是有道理的，因为美国人有助于从发达国家汇集尽可能广泛的世行所需政治、金融和学术支持。世界银行在过去所取得的成功，要归功于麦克纳马拉(Robert S. McNamara)、沃尔芬森(James D. Wolfensohn)和即将卸任的佐利克(Robert B. Zoellick)等人的杰出领导。

不过在选择世界银行未来的行长时，我们必须考虑过去10年发生的经济变化，尤其是在2008至2009年的金融危机之后加速发生的变化。

在这段时期，许多新兴市场经济体终于走上了经济繁荣之路，在这一过程中数以十亿计的穷人开始摆脱贫困。与此同时，发达经济体则陷入了各种各样的金融和财政困境。因此，新兴市场国家比以往任何时候都更适宜为世界银行提供其履行职责所必需的两样东西，即资金和思想。

许多新兴市场经济体已经开始准备帮助其他需要资金的国家。包括巴西、中国和俄罗斯在内这些发展中国家里的先行者手中握有高达五万亿美元的投资基金。相比之下，大多数发达经济体由于当前的危机而资金紧张，而解决这些危机很可能还要再花上几年的时间。

诚然，发达经济体的央行可以继续大印钞票，以便显得资金雄厚，但无休止地这样做对全球经济来说无异于自杀，同时也非应对发展问题的解决之道。对于发达经济体持续实施的宽松货币政策，现在的贫穷经济体普遍并不感激，也不会从中获得什么好处。

正如资金差距一样，发达国家和发展中国家在提出好的建议方面差距也缩小了。新兴市场经济体的很多领导人已经最终明白了发展的正确概念，通常是在成为世界银行发展专家的勤奋学生之后。

中国或许是这方面最好的例子。过去几十年来，当世界银行说话时，中国领导人会全神贯注地倾听，而不是大声反驳。更重要的是，他们确实将世界银行官员的话听进去了，采纳可以立即发挥作用的建议，将其他建议留到今后考虑。

像中国这样的国家如今可以当发达程度不及它的国家的优秀导师。最好的学生应该是最好的老师；他们从实践中总结出哪些想法可行，哪些不可行。

对我的建议持批评态度的人会反驳说，谁适合当老师，这应该由资质而不是国别决定。对此我表示同意。世界银行需要一位来自成功新兴市场经济体的有能力的行长，这样做并不是为了填补某项空白，而是因为这样一位领导人能够更容易地与新兴市场经济体沟通交流、从这些经济体筹集资金、采纳它们提出的最好的建议。一位来自新兴经济体的领导人将对这些国家遭受的挫折和取得的成功有着切身体验，并全身投入到比减灾更深远的机构改革中。

拥有一位来自新兴市场经济体的有能力的行长而非来自美国的行长，这样做更符合世界银行的使命。通过支持这样一位领导人，奥巴马政府可以展示对新兴经济体不断增强的全球领导力的认可。失去一位美国支持的人选，实际上将使美国和世界银行在一个不断变化的新世界中处于更加有利的地位。

（编者按：本文作者李稻葵现任清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任、清华大学经济管理学院佛利曼(Mansfield Freeman)经济学讲席教授。）

Economic Analysis（经济分析）

Soros: Euro Crisis Is Lethal, A Break Up Is Possible

Billionaire investor George Soros is very worried about the Euro Zone, and he’s asking leaders there to take radical action before it’s too late.

It was just over a month ago that the European Central Bank eased the fears of investors around the globe by announcing a second round of loans to banks in the Euro Zone. But cheap money just isn’t enough to end the region’s problems–particularly for Italy and Spain whose bond yields have been been worrying investors this week and sparked fears that the latter may need a bailout.

But bailouts won’t solve the entire problem. There are structural problems that need to be addressed in order for the region to truly move forward. Soros notes in a piece for the Financial Times that the ECB’s capital injection, or longer-term refinancing operations, induced a global rally but hid “an underlying deterioration” in the region. He adds, “The fundamental problems have not been resolved; indeed, the gap between creditor and debtor countries continues to widen. The crisis has entered what may be a less volatile but more lethal phase.”

Those are scary words from the legendary investor whose own net worth stands at $20 billion. It’s not the first time Soros has warned of the lingering problems in Europe. After the first round of LTRO Soros said the deal would only last a short time, from one day to three months.

There have been plenty of calls for a breakup of the Euro Zone but little action because of the perceived difficulty. Soros says though that a break-up is more possible these days than in the early days of the debt crisis. Why? Because as the crisis has progressed countries have been forced to act and behave along national lines. He notes:

“The LTRO enabled Spanish and Italian banks to engage in very profitable and low-risk arbitrage in their own countries’ bonds. And the preferential treatment received by the ECB on its Greek bonds will discourage other investors from holding sovereign debt. If this continues for a few more years, a eurozone break-up would become possible without a meltdown – but would leave creditor countries’ central banks holding big claims that would be hard to enforce against debtor countries’ central banks.

One of the barriers to a real fix in the region is Germany’s central bank, Soros writes in opinion piece. The Bundesbank is guarding against a breakup of the Eurozone to protect its own losses. He writes:

“The Bundesbank has seen the danger. It is now campaigning against the indefinite expansion of the money supply, and it has started taking measures to limit the losses it would sustain in a break-up. This is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: once the Bundesbank starts guarding against a break-up, everybody will have to do the same. Markets are beginning to reflect this.

The Bundesbank is also tightening credit at home. This would be the right policy if Germany was a freestanding country, but the eurozone’s heavily indebted members badly need stronger demand from Germany to avoid recession. Without it, the eurozone’s fiscal compact, agreed last December, cannot possibly work. The heavily indebted countries will either fail to implement the necessary measures or, if they do, they will fail to meet their targets because of collapsing demand. Either way, debt ratios will rise, and the competitiveness gap with Germany will widen.

Soros calls existing policies counterproductive and suggests a radical revision to the rules governing the region. His guidelines: modify the existing fiscal charter agreed to by 25 of the 27 EU member with revisions about the types of debt that are accepted. He also proposes that the agreement, which requires member states to reduce their public debt annually by 1/12 of the amount by which they exceed 60 percent of GDP, reward good behavior by taking up those obligations.

“By rewarding good behaviour, the fiscal compact would no longer constitute a deflationary debt trap. The outlook would radically improve. In addition, to narrow the competitiveness gap, all members should be able to refinance existing debt at the same interest rate. But that would require greater fiscal integration. It would have to be phased in gradually,” he writes.

But even Soros knows that his “radical revisions” won’t go over well with Germany. He acknowledges that the Bundesbank “will never accept these proposals.”

索罗斯：债务危机会“毒杀”欧元区

亿万富豪投资人乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）目前非常担忧欧元区，他呼吁欧元区领导人及时采取彻底的行动，否则悔之晚矣。

就在一个多月前，欧洲央行刚刚宣布对欧元区银行提供第二轮贷款，从而缓解了世界各地投资者的担忧情绪。但低息贷款完全不足以终结欧元区面临的困境，尤其是意大利和西班牙，这两个国家的国债收益率一直令投资者担忧不已，并且引发投资者担忧西班牙可能成为下一个需要救助的国家。

但救助无法解决整个问题。要使欧元区真正向前迈进，就需要解决一系列结构性问题。索罗斯在为《金融时报》撰写的一篇文章中指出，欧洲央行通过实施长期再融资操作（LTRO）向欧元区银行注入资金，导致全球金融市场反弹，但掩盖了欧元区“深层的恶化”。他补充说：“一系列根本性的问题并没有得到解决；实际上，债权国与债务国之间的差距还在继续扩大。欧元区危机进入了一个可能不那么动荡、却更为致命的阶段。”

这些都是从这位极其著名、个人资产净值达200亿美元的投资家口中说出的可怕言论。这并不是索罗斯第一次就欧洲持续面临的困境发出警告。在欧洲央行实施第一轮LTRO之后，索罗斯就曾表示，此项措施的效果只能持续很短的时间，其持续时间最短一天，最多不超过三个月。

有许多人曾呼吁欧元区解体，但由于人们意识到欧元区解体将会造成的种种困难，所以并没有多少实际行动。然而，索罗斯表示，现在欧元区的解体比债务危机爆发之初更具可能性。为什么呢？因为随着危机的逐步演进，各国已被迫按照各自的国家利益而采取行动。他指出：

“LTRO使西班牙和意大利的银行能够在各自国债领域进行高利润、低风险的套利交易。欧洲央行在其持有的希腊国债上享有优先待遇,这将打击其他投资者持有主权债券的意愿。如果这种情形再持续几年,那么欧元区在不崩盘的情况下解体将成为可能,但这将导致债权国央行持有大量难以强制债务国央行履行的债权。”

索罗斯在这篇评论文章中写道，欧元区获得真正修复所面临的障碍之一是德国央行。德国央行目前正采取措施,避免欧元区解体，以保护自己免遭损失。他写道：

“德国央行认识到了这种危险。现在它正发起行动,反对无限制扩大货币供应,并开始采取措施,以求降低自己在欧元区解体的情况下将会遭受的损失。这正形成一个会自我应验的预言:一旦德国央行开始防范欧元解体,其他所有国家都将效法。市场已开始对这种情况作出反应。

德国央行还在国内收紧信贷。倘若德国不是欧元区成员国,那么这种政策倒没错。但那些负债累累的欧元区成员国迫切需要更为强劲的德国需求来避免陷入经济衰退。没有这样的需求,去年12月达成的欧元区财政协议就不可能奏效。负债累累的国家要么无法实施一系列必要的措施,要么即便能够实施这些措施,也会因为需求突然萎缩而无法实现目标。无论哪一种情况,这些国家的负债比率都会攀升,与德国的竞争力差距也将扩大。”

索罗斯称现行政策适得其反，并建议对欧元区治理规则进行彻底修改。他的原则性建议是：修改欧盟27个成员国中25个国家签署的现有财政公约，对可接受债务类型的规则进行修订。欧盟财政公约规定，公共债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比超过60％的成员国，每年必须将超出部分的债务减少二十分之一。对此他还提议，该公约对承担这些义务的国家予以良好行为的奖励。

“通过奖励良好行为，财政协议就不再会引发通缩性的债务陷阱。前景将大为好转。此外，为了缩小竞争力差距，所有成员国还应该能够以相同利率为现有债务进行再融资。但这需要更高程度的财政一体化，这必须分阶段逐步实现。”他如是写道。

但是，即便索罗斯自己也知道，他的“彻底修改方案”不会为德国所接受。他承认，德国央行“永远不会接受这些提议。”

Stiglitz & Greenwald: Alan Greenspan Was No Genius, He Was Irrelevant

In a panel on debt and financial instability, Nobel laureate Joseph Stigitz and co-author Bruce Greenwald blasted monetary policy, considering it inefficient in the face of the current balance sheet recession. Talking along with the Bank of International Settlements’ Claudio Borio, both Columbia University economists also spend some time bashing former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, calling him “irrelevant.”

There is no denying that the global economy hasn’t recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. Europe is in recession, and struggling to remain united, while the U.S. is experiencing a very fragile recovery. Over in South East Asia and Latin America, fast-growing economies are beginning to slow down.

In a very prescient discussion, held in New York in the context of the Levy Institute’s Minsky Conference, a group of top-notch panelists broke into an intense debate over the nature of the crisis and the recovery. With Stiglitz-Greenwald representing one side of the argument, and the BIS’ deputy head Claudio Borio on the other, the panelists agreed overleveraged balance sheets were to blame for the crisis, but weren’t on the same side when it came to solutions.

Stiglitz and Greenwald went further, claiming monetary policy can do nothing to solve the problem. “In the current context, monetary policy will be inefficient,” said Stiglitz. Balance sheets, he argued, were still weak, based on what he calls “mark-to-hope” accounting, highlighting the weakness of arbitrarily priced assets held on banks’ books (such as toxic assets derived from mortgage loans).

Borio, who took on the American duo, explained that when it comes to crisis resolution, balance sheet repair requires financial institutions to recognize losses and take massive write downs. Stiglitz and Greenwald made the case that this hasn’t fully happened yet.

Indeed, major U.S. financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, and Wells Fargo still hold billions in foreclosed properties on their books. Fraudulent foreclosure practices like robo-signing forced them to slow down that offloading, but they still haven’t truly been forced to price those assets to market.

Thus, bank capitalization (only after loss recognition) is the only way out, Stiglitz and Greenwald argue. Illustrating the ineffectiveness of monetary policy, Greenwald took a very direct stab at Il Maestro:

“Alan Greenspan is not a hero or a villain, he’s irrelevant. When he got in the driver’s seat of the car that had been repeatedly driven off the road, the steering wheel had been disconnected. When the car stayed on the road, he believed he was a genius.

Borio, who also suffered the onslaught of the Stiglitz-Greenwald duo, who were aided by the FT’s Martin Wolf from the crowd during Q&A, criticized excessive and protracted easing, noting it “delays balance sheet adjustment.” The BIS economist made the case for balance sheet repair, which should lead to a self-sustaining recovery; Borio referenced the Nordic response to recession in the ‘90s, which saw rapid growth after enforcing loss recognition, direct capitalization of banks, dealing with bad assets, and reducing excess capacity in the financial sector. “A degree of public control is inevitable,” he noted.

But, in what could be seen as a criticism of the Bernanke Fed’s extended policies of quantitative easing and ultra-loose monetary policy, Borio noted “the amount of credit [in the economy] isn’t what’s important, it’s the quality.” Too much easing buys time, but masks weakness, numbs risk-taking, undermines earnings capacity, and has a limited effect on final output, he explained.

At the end of the day, both groups of economists made a similar point. Healthy balance sheets are important. Borio appears more optimistic, expecting healthy balance sheets to lead to growth, while the American duo thinks that’s not enough. Fiscal policy, and direct capitalization, is what’s needed, they said.

诺贝尔得主：格林斯潘不是天才，其政策“一点用都没有”

在一场有关债务与金融动荡的研讨会上，诺贝经济学奖得主约瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨（Joseph Stiglitz）及其合著者布鲁斯•格林沃德（Bruce Greenwald）对美国的货币政策予以大力抨击，称其在当下这场由资产泡沫破裂所引发的衰退面前，是一种徒劳。与国际清算银行的克劳迪奥•博里奥（Claudio Borio）共同切磋经济形势时，这两位哥伦比亚大学经济学家还对前美联储主席艾伦•格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）予以抨击，称其政策其实“一点用都没有”。

无可否认，全球经济仍未走出2008年金融危机的阴影。欧洲现处于经济衰退，正竭力维持团结局面；美国的经济复苏过程则异常脆弱。东南亚和拉美飞速发展的经济也开始放缓。

该研讨会隶属于在纽约举办的利维经济研究所（Levy Institute）明斯基年会（Minsky Conference）；研讨会上，顶尖经济学家就危机与复苏的本质展开了激烈辩论。讨论的一边是斯蒂格利茨与格林沃德，另一边是国际清算银行副行长克劳迪奥•博里奥。双方一致认为，资产与负债的过度杠杆化是引发危机的罪魁祸首，但在危机化解方案上，双方各执一词，互不相让。

斯蒂格利茨与格林沃德更进一步，称货币政策对解决问题毫无助益。“在当前背景下，货币政策于事无补。”斯蒂格利茨说。他认为资产负债表仍然不堪一击，遵从的仍是“按希望计价”（mark-to-hope）的会计原则，这使得银行所持主观定价资产（如住房抵押贷款产生的有毒资产）的弱点暴露无遗。

对阵两位美国经济学家的博里奥则分析认为，在如何化解危机问题上，资产负债表的修复要求金融机构确认损失，并进行大规模资产减值。斯蒂格利茨和格林沃德则反驳称情况尚未发展到这一步。

的确，美国各大金融机构如摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团以及富国银行的账面上仍然持有巨额止赎资产。“机器人签名”（指银行员工不对止赎请求作出审核，机械化予以大批量批准的操作——译注）等被定性为欺骗性的止赎操作，使银行不得不放缓处置此类资产的步伐，但仍未真正被迫按照市场将其定价。

这样一来，银行充实资本（只发生在损失确认之后）是唯一的出路，斯蒂格利茨和格林沃德说。为说明货币政策的徒劳，格林沃德对“调音大师”进行了直截了当的批判：

“艾伦·格林斯潘不是英雄也不是恶棍，他的政策实际上一点用也没有。当他坐上这辆多次冲出道路的汽车驾驶座时，方向盘已然与汽车分离。但只要汽车还行驶在道路上，他就相信自己是个天才。”

而博里奥也受到了来自斯蒂格利茨格林沃德两人的猛攻，问答环节，在听众席中的英国《金融时报》（Financial Times）马丁•沃夫（Martin Wolf）的援助下，他批评宽松政策规模过大、持续时间过长，并指出其“拖延了资产负债表的调整”。这位国际清算银行经济学家提供论据支持了修复资产负债表的重要性——它能引致一种自我维持的修复；博里奥引用了北欧在上世纪90年代应对经济衰退的例子称，当时的北欧在实施损失确认、银行补充资本、着手处理不良资产以及遏制过度金融化之后，呈现出了快速增长态势。“一定程度的管控是不可避免的。”他说。

但博里奥指出，“（经济中的）信贷规模并不是那么重要，关键在于信贷质量”，这可以视为对伯南克（Bernanke）领导下的美联储实施的过度量化宽松政策和超宽松货币政策的批评。他分析说，过量的宽松政策能够争取到一些时间，但掩盖了弱点、麻木了市场的风险偏好、削弱了盈利能力，限制了最终效果的发挥。

会议结束时，双方经济学家得出了类似的观点，即资产负债表的健康与否至关重要。博里奥显得更为乐观，期待健康的资产负债表能带来经济增长，而两位美国经济学家则认为这还不够，两人表示，财政政策以及直接资本化是必不可少的步骤。

Subprime Lending Is Back, And That's Not Such A Bad Thing

Don’t look now but banks are once again issuing lines of credit to customers with bad credit histories.

Bank credit cards, retail credit cards and auto loans are all more readily available to subprime borrowers over the last year according to a March report from Equifax.

Bank-issued credit card lending to sub-prime consumers jumped 41% between 2010 and 2011 hitting a four-year high in December 2011 with 1.1 million new bank credit cards issued. Plus, at $12.5 billion, bankcard limits are at their highest level since 2008 when the limit stood around $27.4 billion.

Retail credit cards also saw an increase in lending to riskier borrowers. From 2010 to 2011 there was a 4.7 percentage point increase in retail card originations to sub-prime borrowers, making up 31% of 2011 retail credit card originations, Equifax says.

Subprime borrowers are also seeing credit lines easing in the auto loan arena. Equifax says new auto finance loan amounts increased $11.6 billion from 2010 ($164.6 billion) to 2011 ($176.2 billion), hitting the highest originations level since 2007 ($221.1 billion).

“The evidence of increased lending to sub-prime consumers demonstrates banks’ ongoing efforts to grow lending by providing credit opportunities to more consumers,” said Equifax Chief Economist Amy Crews Cutts. “Year-over-year results show borrowers are taking advantage of the new opportunities and seeking to diversify their financial activity, which is building momentum toward economic improvement.”

That might be especially true for banks whose revenue pipelines have been squeezed in part because of new rules and regulations. The so-called Durbin amendment, for instance, limits the fees banks can collect from merchants like Target and Walmart when their customers swipe their debit cards there. The Card Act is another revenue killer for banks which, among other things, keeps them from charging overdraft fees. And there may be more limitations on the way as the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau recently launched an inquiry asking banks for data about their overdraft practices.

The New York Times wrote about the subprime lending comeback saying “As financial institutions recover from the losses on loans made to troubled borrowers, some of the largest lenders to the less than creditworthy, including Capital One and GM Financial, are trying to woo them back, while HSBC and JPMorgan Chase are among those tiptoeing again into subprime lending.”

Indeed, Trefis finds that JPM’s credit and debit card business is the most valuable unit, contributing to just under a quarter of its value. The bank reports first quarter earnings Friday and Trefis expects an increase in JPMorgan’s outstanding card loan portfolio and improvement in its provisions for credit card loans as fewer loans are expected to go bad.

For the likes of Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citi and Wells Fargo increasing revenue in this low growth and heavily regulated environment is a big challenge for the industry. So it’s not such a huge surprise that lenders are looking to widen their scope in their search for new borrowers. After all, their investors are banking sector’s growth prospects very closely in the post-crisis world.

Plus, increased lending, even if it is to subprime consumers, shouldn’t be completely frowned upon because it’s one way to help boost economic growth. Besides, lending to subprime borrowers wasn’t the whole problem–it was lending to them without so much as verifying employment, their income and assets. Remember NINJA loans?

With that in mind, the most important thing for lenders is to keep the lessons learned from 2008 crisis fresh in their memory. The key will be managing the risk that comes with territory of lending to less than stellar borrowers.

次贷再度兴起，未必就是坏事

请保持冷静听我说，各大银行又开始向信用记录不良的顾客发放信用额度了。

据著名消费者信用调查公司Equifax今年3月份发布的一份报告显示，在过去的一年里，次级贷款人比以前更加容易获得银行信用卡、零售商信用卡及汽车贷款。

从2010年到2011年，银行向次级信用消费者发放的信用卡贷款同比激增41％，2011年12月份银行新发放的信用卡数量达110万张，创四年来的新高。而且，银行卡信用额度总额达125亿美元，成为自2008年达到274亿美元以来的最高水平。

Equifax表示，美国各大零售商向高风险借款人发放的信用卡贷款也出现增长。从2010年到2011年，各大零售商向次级信用借款人发放的零售信用卡贷款同比增长了4.7%，在2011年零售信用卡贷款总额中占据31％的比例。

次级信用借款人在汽车贷款领域也得到了信贷额度的放宽。Equifax表示，新发放的汽车金融贷款总额增加了116亿美元——从2010年的1,646亿美元增加到2011年的1,762亿美元，成为自2007年汽车贷款总额达2,211亿美元以来的最高水平。

Equifax首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨（Amy Crews Cutts）表示：“向次级信用消费者放贷总额增加的迹象表明，银行继续通过向更多消费者提供信贷机会来努力增加放贷规模。同比数据显示，借款人正利用这些新的机会，设法使自己的融资方式多样化，而这正增强经济改善的势头。”

对于那些营收渠道部分因新规章制度而遭到压缩的银行而言，情况或许尤为如此。比如，所谓的《德宾修正案》（Durbin amendment）对银行向诸如塔吉特和沃尔玛等商家收取的借记卡支付手续费进行了限制。《信用卡法案》（The Card Act）是扼杀银行营收的另一件利器，该法案阻止银行向客户收取透支费等。未来可能还会出现更多的限制，消费者金融保护局（Consumer Finance Protection Bureau）最近发起了一项调查，要求各大银行提交有关处理客户透支操作的数据。

《纽约时报》就次贷再度兴起而发表了文章，该文章表示：“随着各大金融机构纷纷从向陷入困境的借款人提供贷款的亏损中恢复过来，诸如第一金融（Capital One）及通用汽车金融（GM Financial）等一些向信用不太可靠的客户提供贷款的信贷机构目前正试图把这些客户吸引回来，同时汇丰银行及摩根大通等金融机构正再次悄悄进入次贷市场。”

的确，财经网站Trefis发现，摩根大通的信用卡和借记卡业务目前是该银行最有价值的部门，对这家银行的价值贡献度接近25%。该银行本周五将发布今年第一季度的季报，Trefis预计摩根大通信用卡贷款组合的未结余额会有所增长，而其发放信用卡贷款的规定也会有所放宽，因为预计成为呆账的贷款有所减少。

对于像美国银行、摩根大通、花旗集团及富国银行等金融机构而言，在如今这个低增长而监管严的环境中提高营收是该行业目前面临的一大挑战。因此，各家贷款机构目前寄望于扩大各自寻找新贷款人的范围，这点也并不太出乎意料了。别忘了，在经济危机后的环境中，这些银行的投资者密切关注的是银行业的增长前景。

而且，贷款（即使是向次级信用消费者提供的贷款）增加不应遭到全盘否定，因为这是有助于促进经济增长的一种方式。此外，向次级信用借款人放贷并非问题的全部——问题主要在于甚至在没有核实次级信用借款人的就业、收入及资产状况就向他们提供贷款。还记得“忍者贷款”(NINJA loan,指不要求提供收入、就业及资产证明就发放的贷款）吗？

考虑到这一点，对于贷款机构而言，最重要的是要时刻牢记从2008年金融危机中吸取到的教训。关键问题是控制好向信用不佳的客户提供贷款的风险。

No Deal. Why you shouldn’t believe the theory behind Groupon’s business model.

Accounting is boring. High-tech innovation and fast-growing startups are fun. But sometimes boring things are important. And Groupon, the fast-growing market leader in the daily deal business, can’t seem to get its accounting right. On Friday, the company issued an earnings restatement saying they’d actually lost $64.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 rather than the $42.7 million they’d originally reported. That’s an embarrassing mistake, to be sure, but what makes things even worse is that the company’s accountants, Ernst & Young, said it wasn’t just a one-off error—rather, it reflected a “material weakness” in the company’s internal financial controls. But the bigger problem isn’t the losses or the restatement or even the material weakness in the controls. What investors should be alarmed about is a material weakness in Groupon’s underlying business model.

The specific error in Q4 has to do with the somewhat odd timing of the inflows and outflows of Groupon’s revenue. At any given time, the company is selling a variety of “deals”—discount prices on goods and services. Since the deal itself is the product Groupon sells, you hand the money over to them right away. Money is then paid out to the service provider on an agreed-upon timetable, and at some later point a customer actually redeems his coupon. As Groupon has started moving into deals for higher-value services, it began allowing customers to back out and get refunds under certain circumstances. In its initial report, Groupon failed to account for a surge in refunds and thus over-reported its revenue. Ernst & Young’s material weakness comment referred to a failure to account for the possibility of refunds. Neither the specific error nor the existence of a bad accounting procedure is necessarily all that damning. Groupon has been an extraordinarily fast-growing company in terms of revenue, and it’s understandable that the company’s core executive team has been more focused on growing the company than mucking around with accounting procedures.

If Groupon is a wildly successful business 10 years from now, we can expect this early brush with accounting woes to be an endlessly repeated anecdote about the culture clash between brash go-getting entrepreneurs and boring green eyeshade suits. CEO Andrew Mason’s early clash with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in which a memo he authored touting the company’s prospects leaked to the public during the “quiet period” that legally must precede an IPO, also fits into that bucket. The rule Mason broke is fussy and somewhat antiquated, and the idea that the investing public needs to be protected from CEOs bragging about their own businesses is odd. A mature executive should know better than to break the law, but nobody is shocked to learn that innovators sometimes bristle at these kinds of rules.

Groupon’s problem today is that the new accounting mix-up is bound to remind people of the company’s very first accountant-related controversy, their departure from Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in their initial IPO filing. On paper, this was cleared up swiftly. The SEC didn’t like Groupon’s heavy reliance on a non-GAAP method, segments of the business press howled in outrage, and the company filed a new S-1 that de-emphasized the newfangled Adjusted Consolidated Segment Operating Income. Groupon’s problem is that this wasn’t a question of fussy rules but represented a real difference in theory about how to think about the business. And Groupon is probably wrong.

The reason we have GAAP is that assessing a business’s health isn’t as simple as watching money flow in and out. Sometimes money goes out the door as an operating expense, like when Slate pays our electricity bills. But sometimes you’re investing in tangible assets, like when we buy desks or computers. Tangible assets are sometimes very expensive, but they also last a long time. And they might last different amounts of time. An airplane or a desk retains a lot of value, whereas a computer becomes obsolete relatively quickly. GAAP exists so that different firms with different investments in different kinds of equipment can produce comparable financial statements.

Why did Groupon use a different metric? Because it wanted to show that the company has a very healthy operating margin if you exclude the marketing costs incurred in its effort to obtain new customers. On one level, their preference for the ACSOI metric told us nothing. It’s nothing new for tech startups to prioritize growth over profitability in their early stages. But there was an important underlying theory here: that the deal industry has strong network efforts and high barriers to entry. Once everyone is on Facebook, the fact that everyone else is on Facebook becomes a good reason to be on Facebook. And since everyone’s on Facebook, everyone wants to develop aps for Facebook, which becomes another good reason to be on Facebook. In a business like that, doing whatever it takes to obtain a dominant position is the smart strategy. So Groupon might need to incur gigantic marketing expenses to get everyone to sign up, but then should be able to ease up and earn healthy profits by cheaply re-pinging existing customers.

The problem is that it’s never been clear why we should believe this. As opposed to the massive costs of starting up a new social network, there are no meaningful barriers to entry in the deals field. Groupon competes with LivingSocial, and the growth of those two companies has spawned an endless series of imitators. What Groupon acquires with its marketing dollars is little more than a customer’s email address. Any company could go out and buy a list of similar email addresses (which could be properly accounted for as an investment) for much less than Groupon spends on marketing.

The risk for Groupon is that the market leader in the daily deal game will find itself in the position of a McDonald’s or a Coca-Cola. You’d rather be No. 1 in burgers or soda than No. 2, but these leading brands are hardly free from the yoke of advertising costs. Instead, the advantage size gives a company like McDonald’s is ample revenue that allows them to mount ambitious marketing efforts to keep the brand shiny and visible. These costs aren’t one-time investments—they’re constant expenses in a never-ending struggle. There’s nothing wrong with being a business with high marketing costs, but if you’re in a marketing-intensive industry then you need revenues high enough to cover your costs. Groupon doesn’t have that, and lurking beneath its various accounting woes is the dubious underlying theory that they’ll never need them.

没戏。为什么你不该轻信Groupon模式背后的理论。

会计工作是无聊的。高科技发明和快速发展的新事业更有趣。但是有时无聊的事却很重要。Groupon，这个在日常商业交易中发展迅速的市场领导者，其会计工作好像出了错。星期五，这家公司重新发布声明称他们在2011年第四季度实际亏损6490万美元而不是原先报告的4270万美元。这确实是个很尴尬的错误，但是更糟的是会计事务所，Ernst & Young公司说这不是个偶然事件，它反映出公司内部财务控制“本质上的缺陷”。但是更严重的问题不是亏损或重申，甚至不是控制的本质缺陷。投资者应当警醒的是存在于Groupon案例潜在的商业模式中的实质性缺陷。

Q4中特殊的错误是与Groupon营业额进出的奇怪的时间息息相关。在任何时间，这个公司都在销售各种“交易”——商品和服务的折扣。由于Groupon卖的是一种交易，你得立马将钱付给他们。钱随后在约定的时间付给服务提供商，在之后的时间里顾客再真正兑现他的优惠券。随着Groupon开始转向出售高价值服务，Groupon允许顾客在特定情况下撤单并得到退款。在最初的报表中，Groupon没有计算增长的退款，因此高估了收入。Ernest & Young 所指的实质性缺陷即指没有考虑退款的可能性。不管是特殊错误还是会计程序存在问题都不是必须受到责。Groupon已经是个收入高速增长的公司，因此公司的核心决策层将更多地注意力放在发展公司而不是围着会计程序打转是可以理解的。

如果Groupon10年来特别成功的商业案例，我们可将这场的早期会计小摩擦作为不断上演的野心勃勃的企业家与枯燥无味的会计师之间文化碰撞的有趣轶事。在CEO Andrew Mason的一份备忘录中记载了在他之前与证券和交易管理委员会的一场冲突中吹捧公司前景的故事在上市前的“安静期”漏露出来也映证了该事。Mason所打破的规则是挑剔甚至有点过时，同时保护投资者不受CEO们吹嘘公司所害的想法也较少见。一位成熟的决策者应该有清晰的头脑而不是违反法律，但是得知创新者有时对这些规定火冒三丈也没人会感到惊讶。

Groupon今天的问题是新的会计混乱提醒人们该公司关于会计师的争论，在他们一开始为满足IPO条件时就远离了一般公认的会计准则。这个问题已通过书面形式被迅速处理。SEC并不喜欢Groupon违反一般公认的会计准则的做法，商业新闻对此义愤填膺，同时公司发布一份新的S-1文件，其中降低了最新的调整巩固模块经营的收入。Groupon的问题并不在于苛刻的规章而是体现了在思考如何经营中理论上的差异。并且Groupon或许错了。

一般公认的会计准则存在的理由在于帮助公司健康发展，而不是记录资金流进流出般简单。有时资金作为运营开支流出，例如Slate付电费时的开支。但有时你投资于有形资产，比如我们买桌子或电脑。有形资产有时会昂贵，但是他们会使用很长时间。他们能够使用的时间不尽相同。一架飞机或是一张桌子会保持一定价值，然而一台电脑报废相对较快。因为GAAP的存在，不同的公司投资于不同的设备便能做出具有可比性的财务报表。

为什么Groupon要使用另一套方法呢？因为它想要现示出，当除去那些为了保留保新顾客而产生的营销支出，它便拥有很健康的营业利润。某种程度上，他们对ACSOI方法的偏爱并没告诉我们任何事。对于高科技创业者在创业初期将增长速度放于营利能力之前的做并无新奇。但是在这其中有一条潜在的理论：贸易行业有着很强的网络和很高的进入壁垒。一旦每个人都上Facebook，那么其他人都在上Facebook就成为上Facebook的一个很好的理由。因此，一旦每个有都在Facebook上，那么每个人都想为Facebook开发应用，这又成为上Facebook的另一个很好的理由。在这样一个商业环境中，不管做什么都能保持领导地位的方法就是睿智的战略。因此Groupon便会发花大量的营销开支使每个人都来注册，但是之后应该减少开支并通过低成本地激发现在顾客来赢得健康的利润。

问题在于永远也搞不清楚为什么我们应该相信这些。与新建一个社交网络的巨大开支相反的是，在这个行业并没有太多的壁垒。Groupon与LivingSocial是竞争对手，两家公司的发展都产生了无数的模仿者。Groupon需要的营销资金只不过用于够买顾客的邮件地址。任何一家公司都能花比Groupon少得多的钱来够买相同的邮件地址清单（这可能算得上一项投资）。

Groupon的风险在于市场领导者在日常养商业游戏中发现自己处于同麦当劳或可口可乐一样的境地。你要做卖汉堡或是卖可乐的第一名，而不是第二，但是这些大品牌们很难从广告开支的束缚中脱身。然而，规模优势使像麦当劳这样的公司有大量收入，这样收入又允许他们提升雄心勃勃的营销能力使品牌光鲜可见。这些开支并不是一次性的，它们是没有止境的持续的花费。如果你处于一个营销密集的行业,且有高额利用来承担这些花费的话， 那么花大量的营销费用进行经营并没有什么不对。但Groupon没有，潜伏在它各种会计困难之下是的一套他们原本根本不需要的含混不清的潜在理论。

Charlemagne: Still sickly

The euro zone’s illness is returning. A cure requires more integration, but Germany isn’t keen

WHEN the editors of the German tabloid Bild met Mario Draghi recently they gave him a Pic kelhaube—a spiked helmet—to remind the Italian that they had last year depicted him in Prussian garb as the most Germanic of candidates to run the European Central Bank. It may come in useful: hardliners are taking shots at Mr Draghi for spraying banks with €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) of cheap money. This “powerful drug” may have side-effects, he says, but it works: “The worst is over” for the euro zone.

Don’t be so sure. The fever has been rising again in Spain after the government wildly overshot its deficit target last year. The Italian prime minister, Mario Monti, expressed alarm (which he later withdrew) that the Spanish illness might harm his own country’s convalescence. Portugal and Ireland are in recession, and may need second bail-outs; Greece will probably require a third rescue (and the restructuring of official debt).

As fear returns, so have calls to boost the euro zone’s rescue funds. “The mother of all firewalls should be in place, strong enough, broad enough, deep enough, tall enough—just big,” says Ángel Gurría, secretary-general of the OECD, the rich-world think-tank. But Germany prefers a slow, incremental response. The latest signal is that it will agree, at a meeting of finance ministers in Copenhagen on March 30th and 31st, to raise the firewall somewhat. The temporary rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), would be allowed to overlap with the permanent new European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which is to be activated this summer. By combining the two funds, perhaps only for a year, the lending capacity could be raised from €500 billion to about €740 billion.

This may be enough to persuade the Chinese, the Americans and others to allow the IMF to increase its resources, so helping the defences, but it is hardly the overwhelming force Mr Gurría seeks. Germany worries that reducing the pressure on weak states will lead to complacency. “The Germans think that the only way to make countries reform is to dangle them out of the window,” says one diplomat. “This only reinforces the belief in the markets that the euro zone is on the edge of disaster.”

One worrying sign for Germany was Spain’s partly successful attempt to loosen its deficit target this year. Another is growing trouble over the “fiscal compact”, a treaty signed by 25 European Union countries to toughen budget discipline. Ireland, with a history of awkward votes on EU treaties, holds a referendum on May 31st. The Socialist front-runner in the French presidential election, François Hollande, wants to renegotiate the deal to include more focus on growth. Germany’s opposition Social Democrats are making similar noises. In the Netherlands the opposition Labour Party—which is supposed to support the minority government on European issues—threatens to block ratification if the government imposes austerity to meet next year’s deficit target of 3% of GDP. (Ill-disciplined countries that have received a tongue-lashing from the Dutch are savouring the irony.)

Even assuming all these difficulties are resolved, the fate of the euro will remain uncertain. Raising the firewall and ratifying the compact will address only some of the symptoms. A cure requires “treating the whole patient”, as set out recently in a clear-eyed paper by Jay Shambaugh for Brookings, an American think-tank. It says the euro zone is afflicted by three ills: a banking crisis, a sovereign-debt crisis and a growth crisis. Dealing with one often makes the others worse.

A big problem is that the euro zone is only partly integrated. Its members have given up economic tools, such as currency devaluation and monetary policy, yet lack “federal” instruments to cope with shocks. The problem is not so much the budget deficit (though Greece was certainly profligate) as the net foreign borrowing by all actors, public and private (say to finance a trade deficit). The euro zone has only small internal transfers, and its workers tend not to move far for work. Fiscal stimulus is impossible for most governments, given their indebtedness. Structural reforms to promote growth can take years to work.

So redressing the imbalances must come through “internal devaluation”: bringing down real wages and prices relative to competitors. This was easier before 1991, when inflation around the world was higher, but has rarely been achieved since then (Hong Kong is one exception). With the ECB determined to keep inflation at around 2%, internal devaluation brings severe recession, even depression. And falling GDP wrecks the debt ratio.

Mr Shambaugh offers some advice. Deficit countries could cut payroll taxes to reduce labour costs and raise VAT to discourage imports; the effect would be magnified if surplus states did the opposite. Germany could help by stimulating its economy, or at least slowing down its budget consolidation. The ECB could let inflation run higher, especially in Germany, and could declare that it stands fully behind solvent sovereigns. The EFSF/ESM could recapitalise weak banks. A Europe-wide bank-deposit insurance scheme would help. Mutualising part of the national debts would create a risk-free European asset.

The German problem (again)

All these options ultimately run into the same obstacle: Germany. It does not want to bear bigger liabilities, it wants to set an example of budget discipline, it refuses to compromise its competitiveness, it is allergic to inflation, it does not want the ECB to print money and it thinks Eurobonds create moral hazard.

There is little sign that the chancellor, Angela Merkel, is ready to do much beyond tweaking the firewall and pushing through the fiscal compact. She talks of a future “political union”. If she really wants to save the euro, she will have to put on a Pick elhaube and lead the way to greater fiscal federalism.

欧元区，病未痊愈

欧元区的问题又回来。要治本需要更大范围的整合，但是德国热情不高。

近期德国画报《图片报》（Bild）的编辑们与马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）会面时，他们送给他一顶Pic kelhaube――一种尖刺头盔――以提醒这位意大利人，在去年他们曾把普鲁士着装风格的他描述成最有德国人作风的欧洲央行行长竞选者。这头盔或许会派上用场：强硬派大肆攻击他向欧盟各国银行散发1万亿欧元（约合1.3万亿美元）的低息贷款。他说，这剂“特效药”也许会有副作用，但确实有用：“对于欧元区来讲，最糟糕的已经过去了。”

别如此肯定。去年，在西班牙政府鲁莽地超出其赤字目标之后，欧洲经济又一直发高烧。意大利总理马里奥·蒙蒂（Mario Monti）表示他的担忧（后来他收回此种担忧）：西班牙患病可能会伤害到意大利（国内的经济）的康复。葡萄牙和爱尔兰经济不景气，也许需要第二轮经济援助；希腊可能需要第三轮经济援助（和调整国债）。

对于经济形式的恐慌也造成欧元区金融救助金（译注：即金融防火墙）的攀升。“所有防火墙的根本必须是到位的，够强，够宽，够深，够高――不仅仅是大，”经济合作与发展组织（OECD ）秘书长安吉尔·葛利亚（Ángel Gurría）谈到。经济合作与发展组织也被成为“富人世界的智囊团”。但是，德国更喜欢一种缓慢的，逐渐增长的（市场）反应。3月30日至31日，在哥本哈根的一次财长会议时，德国表示同意在一定程度上提高（金融）防火墙水平，这也是德国发出的最新信号。临时救援基金，即欧洲金融稳定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，EFSF），将会欧洲稳定机制（European Stability Mechanism，ESM）交叉存在。欧洲稳定机制是一种永久性的，全新的基金援助体制，将会在今年夏天启用。通过结合两种基金，也许仅需一年，欧洲稳定机制的借贷能力就可以从5千亿欧元提高到7千4百亿欧元。

这也许能够说服中国，美国和其他国家允许国际货币基金组织（IMF）增加援助，以增强欧洲的金融防御，但是这几乎不是葛利亚所追求的能够压倒一切的力量。德国担心减轻经济衰退国家的压力会滋生自满情绪。“德国人认为唯一促使各国改革的方法就是让负债的国家自生自灭，”一位外交官谈到，“这只会让市场更坚信欧元区正处于灾难边缘”。

德国担心的一个方面是今年西班牙部分成功尝试放宽该国的财政赤字目标。另外一个方面在于“财政紧缩”问题上麻烦不断。为了严格预算自控，欧盟25国签署了一项协议。尽管在欧盟条约公投上有过尴尬的往事，爱尔兰3月31日开始全民公投。在法国总统选举中领先的社会党总统候选人弗朗索瓦·奥朗德（François Hollande），打算重新对该协议进行谈判，以囊括更注重经济增长的决策。德国反对党社会民主党（Social Democrats）也表达了相同的言论。荷兰的反对党工党（Labour Party）――被认为是支持欧洲事务的少数派政府――如果执政党政府实施财政紧缩以期实现明年财政赤字占GDP3%的目标，工党威胁说将阻止财政紧缩方案的通过。

即使假设所有这些问题都得到解决，欧元区的命运仍然是未知数。提高金融防火墙和批准金融紧缩只是针对局部病症。正如美国智囊团布鲁金斯研究院的杰伊·项博（Jay Shambaugh）近期发表的一篇思路清晰的文章中谈及，治愈则需要“治本”。文章中谈到三种疾病折磨着欧元区：银行业危机，国债危机和经济增长危机。处理一个方面通常会恶化其他两个方面。

欧元区的的一大问题在于其部分整合性。它的成员国放弃了如货币贬值，货币政策经济等手段，同时缺少“联邦的”手段来应付经济动荡。问题所在与其说是预算赤字（虽然希腊确实浪费），不如说是所有政府和私营的净外贷（说是提供贸易逆差的资本）。欧元区内仅有小部分的内部转移，工人不愿意为了工作而迁徙。考虑到各国的债务，大多数政府来无法实施财政刺激。以结构性改革推动经济增长需要多年才会奏效。

因此纠正不平等必须通过“内部贬值”：相对于竞争对手，下调实际工资，降低价格。在1991年之前，这要简单的多，当时的世界范围内的通胀较高，但是以后几乎没有谁能做到（香港是一个例外）。随着欧洲中央银行（ECB）决定保持2%左右的通胀率，内部贬值会导致严重经济衰退，甚至是经济大萧条。同时，下滑的国内生产总值（GDP）会破坏负债率。

项博提出了一些建议。贸易逆差的国家可以减少工资总额的税收，达到减少劳动力成本，提高增值税（VAT）来抑制进口；如果其余国家采取相反方式，作用将会扩大。德国通过刺激国内经济可以提供帮助，或者至少放缓国内的预算整合步伐。欧洲中央银行应允许较高的通胀率，特别是在德国国内。同时表明自己全力支持有偿还债务能力的国家。金融稳定基金或欧洲稳定机制可再注资弱小的银行。一种全欧洲的银行存款保险方案也会有所帮助共同分担国内债务将会形成无风险的欧洲资产。

德国问题（老生常谈）

所有这些选择最终遇到同样的障碍：德国。德国不想承担更大的债务，他想树立一种预算自律的榜样，它拒绝放弃自己的竞争力，它对通货膨胀过敏，它不想欧洲央行印钞票，它想欧洲债券（Eurobonds）建立道德风险（moral hazard）。

有些迹象表明德国总理安吉拉•默克尔准备在挤压金融防火墙之外，采取更多措施，并且推动金融紧缩。她谈及一个未来的“政治联合”。如果她真想拯救欧元区，她将不得不带上一顶尖刺头盔，带头迈进更大范围的金融联邦制度。

America’s JOBS Act——Uncuffing capitalism

A welcome attempt to restore the appeal of initial public offerings in America

HAVING spent years heaping new rules onto its financial markets, America is about to take a modest step in the opposite direction. On March 27th Congress passed the JOBS (or, rather ludicrously, “Jumpstart Our Business Start-ups”) Act, which aims to revive growth by easing the regulatory burden on companies seeking to raise capital.

The act is designed to address the decline in initial public offerings (IPOs). From 2001 to 2011 the annual tally of small companies going public in America was 80% lower than in the previous two decades.

The IPO drought does not mean firms cannot raise capital. There are plenty of other ways for them to do so, from private equity and private placements to bank loans. But the public markets serve a unique purpose: they provide capital directly to young, growing firms, give early investors a means to cash out and enable ordinary investors to stake a claim in the fortunes of those firms.

There are many reasons for the drought. Rich-world economies are not exactly fizzing, and firms from emerging markets that once sought respectability by listing in the West now have options at home. But onerous regulations are also to blame.

America has more than its fair share of those. From Sarbanes-Oxley to Dodd-Frank, policymakers have responded to crisis and scandal with ever more strictures on accounting, auditing, pay, governance and Wall Street research. Some of this was needed to make markets work better. By bolstering investors’ confidence in the marketplace, regulation can help companies raise capital. But too many new rules impose costs that exceed their benefits: the intensive review of internal controls required by Sarbanes-Oxley is one example among many.

Bosses of listed firms gripe that they spend more time complying with rules than cooking up new products. More worryingly, firms that in previous decades might have gone public look at the red tape and decide not do so. Start-ups used to dream of toppling incumbents; now they aim to sell themselves to Google or Apple. Creative destruction is muffled.

Two cheers for the deregulators

The JOBS Act would make it easier for young, growing companies to go public by releasing them from some of the auditing oversight requirements of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act. It would loosen the restrictions on communication between companies about to go public and investors, on underwriters’ research, and on the advertising of new share offerings.

Such steps would reduce compliance costs while providing investors with more information. Alas, other parts of the law deprive investors of helpful disclosures. A young firm could release just two years of audited statements instead of three, and a private firm could avoid registering its shares with the Securities and Exchange Commission (which triggers broad disclosure requirements) until it has 2,000 shareholders, up from the current 500. This would allow far too many companies that are, de facto, publicly held to evade disclosure and, perversely, reduce the incentive to go public.

The law also goes too far in waiving most registration requirements for firms that “crowdfund” (ie, raise small amounts of money from lots of investors over the internet). Crowdfunding is an efficient way for entrepreneurs to raise seed capital. But it is also a good way for hucksters to fleece suckers. The Senate wisely inserted modest disclosure requirements. More safeguards are needed, especially in the case of the brokers who sell the shares.

The JOBS Act is not perfect. But it starts to cut the rules that cuff American capitalism and should thus be applauded.

美国的JOBS法案——为资本主义松绑

在美国，让首次公开募股（IPO）重获青睐的努力深受民众欢迎

在连续数年出台堆积如山的金融市场的新规后，美国将一反常态，意欲适度松绑其法规。2012年3月27日国会通过了旨在减轻对需融资企业的监管负担以重振经济发展的JOBS法案（即较匪夷所思的“全力以赴加快新创企业发展方案）。

该法案旨在解决首次公开发行股票（IPOS）的企业数量下降的问题。从2001年至2011年，美国每年上市的小企业数与前二十年相比下跌了80%。

“IPO荒”并不意味着企业无法筹集到资本。企业有等多种渠道融资，可以从私募股权或私募配售中融资或从银行贷款。但是，公开市场能提供独一无二的服务：直接向蓄势待发的新兴公司提供资本；给早期投资者提供了一个将所持股票套现的工具并能让普通股东对上市公司的财产提出相应的所有权要求。

这种“IPO荒”是由诸多原因导致的。发达国家的经济实在是杳无生机，而且那些曾通过从西方国家上市以获得商业信誉的新兴市场企业现不出国门也可享受同等待遇。然而，手续繁杂也是导致“IPO荒”罪魁祸首之一。

美国不仅仅是要实现公平的分配。从萨班斯-奥克斯利法案（Sarbanes-Oxley）至多德弗兰克法案（Dodd-Frank）的颁布表明，决策者对各种危机和丑闻的反应始终是对会计、审计、薪资、政府和华尔街研究的横加指责。有些规定是为促进市场更好运转而必不可少的。通过增加投资者对市场的信心，法律法规可帮助公司实现融资。但是太多的新规导致成本远超过其所带来的效益：萨班斯-奥克斯利法案要求强化内部控制检查的规定便是这些条条框框的一个例子。

上市公司的老板报怨说，遵守规则的过程比设计新产品的时间还长。更令人担忧的是，过去几十年来，那些有可能上市的公司可能因看到繁文缛节而退避三舍。在过去新创企业梦想着要打败现有的竞争对手，而现在他们的目标是把自己出售给谷歌或苹果这样的产业巨头。导致企业的创造性破坏裹足不前。

撤销管制带来的两大优点

JOBS法案让那些谋求上市且羽翼未丰的成长型企从2002年颁布的萨班斯-奥克斯利法案中的一些审计监督要求中 解放出来。新法案将放松对即将上市的公司和投资者之间沟通要求的限制；放宽对股票承销商的研究和新股上市规定。

这些措施将减少遵从成本的同时还能为投资者提供更多的信息。唉，该法令的其他部分却剥夺投资者享有更多有用的公司披露资料的权利。年轻的公司可只发布两年期而非三年期的审计报告；而且，须在证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission）登记股票资料（这导致大量的信息披露要求）的私营企业其股东数从现在要求的500名以上提升至2000名以上。这实际上会让越来越多的上市公司一意孤行，公然逃避信息的披露而且会事以愿违，减弱公司上市的诱因。

该法令在对那些需“密集型筹资”（ （如通过网络从众多投资者中筹得小额资金））的公司免除大部分注册要求上也有点过犹不及。密集型筹资是企业家筹集种子基金的最有效的方法。但也为那些强行推销者引“傻瓜们”上钩而大开方便之门。参议院明智地增加了对公司披露资料的适度要求。该法案需要增加更多的防范措施，尤其应加强经纪人在出售股票时的操作。

JOBS法案并非十全十美。然而，首开了减少美国资本主义“紧筘咒”的先河，因此应值得大家拍手称赞。

Investment（投资）

Gold Becomes Pricier Than Platinum, That's Rare And Scary

It’s more than “interesting” that platinum prices are lagging gold. Gold has risen nicely since the meltdown following Lehman’s collapse, with the gold price in dollars rising 130%. Until last summer, however, platinum had done better still.

Indeed, a trader “could have made a lot of money buying platinum and selling gold since Lehman Brothers,” as Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS said Wednesday, taking analyst questions after launching the precious-metals consultancy’s new Gold Survey 2012 at Thomson Reuters‘ HQ in London.

Over the 34 months to August 2011, the white metal rose 150%, recovering faster at first even than the gold price. But it needed to, however, after it dropped two-thirds of its dollar price between March and December 2008.

Since last summer, platinum has slipped faster than gold. More notably, it’s slipped below the gold price itself, something seen for only three trading days in December 2008 in the immediate aftermath of Lehman’s bankruptcy. Before that, you have to go back to the recession of 1991…the peak of the “strong dollar” disinflation of 1984…the global stock market’s once-in-a-generation low of 1982…and gold’s big tops of Jan. 1980 and Dec. 1974 to find platinum trading cheaper than the gold price.

Gold’s latest incursion above the platinum price is “interesting,” said GFMS’s Klapwijk on Wednesday. But scary might be closer to it. Running for 145 of the last 172 trading days, it’s getting to be something of a habit, too.

“There’s a case to be made for the white metal being priced at a premium to gold,” as Klapwijk said. The two metals’ scarcity in the earth’s crust is about the same, but platinum deposits tend to be more diffuse, making extraction more costly. On the demand side, it is clearly more “useful” than gold too, with one third of annual output going to industry and another third going to make auto-catalysts according to platinum experts Johnson Matthey. Fully 85% of global gold demand, in contrast, is for store-of-value or adornment. And there’s the rub.

The vast majority of investors will always prefer gold over platinum, as Klapwijk noted this week, because its store-of-value use is so very much greater than platinum’s. You could ascribe that to 50 centuries of habit, gold being “the universal prize in all countries, all cultures and in all ages,” as physicist and polymath Jacob Bronowski put it in his Ascent of Man.

Today that history is supported by the second, stronger point which Klapwijk made Wednesday: gold’s relative lack of industrial use. That makes it a far better defense against the kind of economic turmoil suffered since our financial crisis broke in mid-2007 (platinum up 24%, the gold price up 153%), as well as the economic crises of the mid-1970s and early ’80s.

Over the last 9 months in particular, Europe’s economic crisis has affected its vehicle demand, GFMS points out. That means lower demand for diesel engines and thus platinum-based catalysts worldwide. Gold may have suffered similarly lower demand amongst Western jewelry consumers, but Eurozone investors have stepped in to pick up that slack. And their counterparts in Asia are buying gold with both hands, according to GFMS’s new Gold Survey 2012, along with pretty much anyone else who cares to look.

黄金价超铂金，岂有此理？

铂金价格目前赶不上黄金价格，这不只是“耐人寻味”。自雷曼兄弟公司破产拉开金融危机序幕以来，黄金价格出现了一轮非常不错的上涨行情，按美元计的黄金价格期间涨幅达130％。然而，直到去年夏天为止，铂金价格此前走势相比黄金更为强劲。

事实上，正如全球知名贵金属咨询公司GFMS（译注：以前曾称作黄金矿业服务公司，现已更名为原名的首字母缩略词）执行董事长菲利普·克拉普维克（Philip Klapwijk）周三所述，在雷曼兄弟公司破产后，交易者“如果做多铂金同时做空黄金的话，能够赚到许多钱。”克拉普维克在GFMS于汤森路透公司（Thomson Reuters）伦敦总部发布最新的《2012年黄金调查报告》（Gold Survey 2012）后回答分析师提问时，发表了上述言论。

从雷曼兄弟公司破产到2011年8月的34个月期间，铂金价格上涨了150％，其最初反弹回升的速度甚至超过了黄金价格。但它确实需要这样，因为在2008年3月至12月期间，按美元计价的铂金价格暴跌了三分之二。

自去年夏季以来，铂金价格下跌速度超过了黄金价格。更值得注意的是，铂金价格跌到低于黄金价格的水平。而在雷曼兄弟公司破产后的2008年12月期间，也只有三个交易日出现这种情况。在此之前，你得回溯到1991年的经济衰退时期……1984年“强势美元”导致通胀放缓的高峰期……1982年全球股市处于一代人时间内的低谷期……以及1980年1月及1974年12月黄金价格涨至历史高位的时候，才能看到铂金价格低于黄金价格的现象。

GFMS的克拉普维克周三表示，黄金价格最近超过铂金价格颇为“耐人寻味”。或者说，让人觉得害怕更贴切些。在过去的172个交易日中，有145个交易日黄金价格超过铂金价格。而且，这种现象越来越成为一种“习惯”。

正如克拉普维克所述：“铂金价格超过黄金价格是有理由的。”这两种贵金属在地壳中的稀缺程度大致相同，但铂金矿藏往往更加分散，因而其开采成本更加昂贵。而且，据铂金冶炼商庄信万丰（Johnson Matthey）表示，在需求方面，铂金显然比黄金更加“有用”，铂金年产量的三分之一用于工业领域，另有三分之一用于汽车尾气净化器装置的催化剂。相比之下，全球黄金需求有85％是用于价值储存或装饰。这便是黄金价格超过铂金的矛盾之处。

正如克拉普维克本周三所述，绝大多数投资者总是倾向于投资黄金而不是铂金，因为黄金的价值储存用途远超过铂金。你可以把这归因于人类历时5,000年的习惯。正如物理学家和博学家雅各布·布罗诺夫斯基（Jacob Bronowski）在其《人类的崛起》（Ascent of Man）一书中所述，黄金长期以来一直是“所有国家、所有文化及所有时代的人们普遍珍视的财富。”

如今，这个历史得到了更为有力的第二个观点的支持——正如克拉普维克周三所述：即黄金相对而言缺乏工业用途。这使得黄金成为我们自2007年中期爆发金融危机（迄今铂金价格上涨24％，而黄金价格上涨153％）以来防御经济危机的更好手段，也是防御1970年代中期和1980年度初期经济危机的更佳选择。

GFMS指出，尤其是在过去9个月期间，欧洲经济危机已对铂金在汽车工业领域的需求造成影响。这意味着全球柴油发动机及催化剂的铂金需求明显萎缩。在西方国家的珠宝消费者当中，黄金可能也遭受了类似的需求减少，但欧元区投资者出手弥补了黄金这方面的需求不足。而根据GFMS最新发布的《2012年黄金调查报告》显示，亚洲投资者目前正全力以赴地购买黄金，外加几乎其他所有愿意关注黄金的投资者。

Gold's Decade-Long Bull Run Is Dead, Gartman Says

Bernanke delivered the fatal blow to gold’s ten year bull market, according to Dennis Gartman. Gold has been in bear territory since the summer of 2011, when it topped out above $1,900 an ounce, with the latest post-FOMC sell-off inflicting irreparable technical damage, he says. UBS’ Edel Tully adds that markets’ no-QE-for-now realization will push gold even lower, probably down to $1,550 an ounce over the next month.

Over the last couple of years, gold’s precipitous, and continued, rise fueled causal theories, with some investors attributing it to U.S. dollar weakness, others to a safe haven trade in the face of widespread market turmoil, an inflation hedge, or whatever they could correlate a chart with. The yellow metal, though, appears as a Humean experiment in causality, marrying no single trend.

Gold has fallen nearly 9% since late February, trading at $1,628.5 an ounce on Thursday in New York. Gold went on a rollercoaster ride over the last 12 months, rising to an all-time high above $1,900 last spring, then tanking about 18% to December, then rising a further 15.5% to this February.

According to Gartman, gold’s latest price action confirms the trend line has clearly been broken, indicating we’ve been in a bear market for 12 months, since it peaked. In Thursday’s Gartman Letter, “in retrospect it does appear that gold has not been in a bull market but has indeed been in a bear market” since August 2011, when it peaked above $1,900.

“Since then,” he added “each new interim low has been lower and each new interim high has followed. How, we ask, had we missed that fact!”

The catalyst for that realization has been the Fed, specifically the latest FOMC meeting and Wednesday’s minutes from that meeting. In both, markets caught a glimpse of a more optimistic Fed that, while keeping the option on the table, has seen the necessity for a further round of quantitative easing reduced by the improved economic performance. UBS’ Edel Tully adds:

“The minutes painted a rather more optimistic view on growth, a more convincing take on the basis for the decline in the unemployment rate and most worryingly of all for gold, an acknowledgement by the Fed of the potential for a change in the end-2014 forward guidance.

With the Bernanke Fed guiding markets over the last couple of years, it should come as no surprise that gold prices are very sensitive to monetary policy. Record low interest rates amid a weak global economy pushed nervous investors out of both risk assets and the safety of Treasuries. A weak U.S. dollar, along with massive liquidity injections via QE, helped investors look to gold for it has always been: a store of value.

No QE3 and higher interest rates before late-2014 would cause further damage to gold, as it would signal an improving economic environment where capital should once again channel into productive, and thus riskier, assets. Fed unwinding will definitely deal a deadly blow to gold bulls, so the real question investors should be asking is: are we out of the woods yet?

If the gradual pace of economic improvement in the U.S. and the relative calm of European markets persists, then the global economy might be close to the edge of those woods. Bernanke has remained cautious, noting downside risks still abound, while ECB chief Mario Draghi was blunter on Wednesday saying risks are definitely skewed to the downside. Housing markets in the U.S. remain depressed and labor markets, while healthier, are still relatively weak.

Among the best at illustrating the bear case is Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Precious Metals. “Don’t catch the recovery fever” he told investors in his daily newsletter, adding “the recovery is not only going to falter – it’s going to evaporate like the mirage it is!”

Schiff expects substantially higher interest rates, which went untested in the recent stress tests on banks, to blow the lid off major financial institutiosn. Large Wall Street names like JPMorgan Chase, Citi, and Bank of America have relied on cheap money from the Fed to keep operating. Rising inflation, as a consequence of money printing and bond buying by the Fed, will force Bernanke to raise rates. From Schiff’s newsletter:

“In fact, higher interest rates are not only possible, but probable. The stress tests assume long-term Treasury note yields stay under 1.8%; but that figure is the current six-month low on the 10-year, which is already dragging along its historical floor. As I write, yields are already up to 2.2%. The post-war average is about 5.2% – high enough to crater today’s banking system.

The stage is set for gold to continue falling in the immediate-term. Higher interest rates and an improved economic environment suggest it’s time to put capital back to work. The improving outlook does face substantial threats, though, particularly the European sovereign debt crisis (which promises to flare up again), which could stoke recessionary fears. Add Schiff’s predicted inflation, and you could see the yellow metal rally rise through the ashes like the phoenix. At the end of the day, it all boils down to the true strength of the economic recovery. Stay tuned.

黄金十年大牛市已然终结

丹尼斯·加特曼（Dennis Gartman）认为，美联储主席伯南克对历时10年之久的黄金牛市给予了致命一击。他表示，自金价在去年夏季突破1,900美元并创下历史高点以来，黄金一直处于熊市之中。而最近这次美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议后出现的金价下跌，对金价走势造成了不可挽回的技术性损害。瑞银集团分析师埃德尔·塔利（Edel Tully）补充说，市场认识到“美联储眼下不会推出新一轮量化宽松政策”，这将促使金价进一步走低，很可能在未来一个月内下探至每盎司1,550美元。

在过去两年里，金价急速而连续的上涨促使市场出现各种因果理论，一些投资者把金价上涨归因于美元疲软，也有投资者将之归因于面对市场普遍动荡黄金可以作为一种避险资产、一种对冲通胀的工具，或是任何一种可以跟黄金关联起来的理由。然而，黄金似乎是对因果关系进行的一场休谟式实验，并没有与任何单一趋势相结合。

自今年2月下旬以来，金价已下跌近9％，周四纽约金价已跌至每盎司1,628.5美元。黄金在过去12个月里如坐过山车般上下剧烈波动，先在去年春季上涨至每盎司1,900美元以上而创下历史最高名义价格，然后到去年12月份暴跌约18％，之后到今年2月份又上涨了15.5％。

据加特曼分析，金价最近的走势证实其上涨趋势线显然已受到破坏，表明黄金自价格见顶以来处于熊市行情已有12个月了。他在周四发表的《加特曼简讯》（Gartman Letter）中写道，“回顾过去，自2011年8月金价于每盎司1,900美元上方见顶以来，黄金似乎并没有处于牛市之中，而确实是处于熊市之中。”

“自那以来，”他补充说，“金价的每一个新的低位都是越来越低，而随后出现的每一个新的高位也都是越来越低。我们不禁要问，我们怎么没有认识到这个事实呢！”

促使我们认识到这个事实的催化剂是美联储，尤其是最近的FOMC会议及周三发布的该会议纪要。在会议后发布声明以及会议纪要公布的时候，市场都得以窥知美联储对美国经济前景更趋乐观：美联储在把量化宽松的政策选择放在其考虑范围之内的同时，看到美国经济表现好转已使进一步推行量化宽松政策的必要性有明显减少。瑞银集团的埃德尔·塔利表示：

“此次FOMC的会议纪要对美国经济增长前景给予了更为乐观的看法，而根据失业率下降，这个观点更具说服力。对于黄金而言，最令人担忧的是，美联储承认，未来有可能对2014年年底之后的预期政策指导予以调整。”

鉴于伯南克执掌的美联储在过去两年里一直在引导市场，金价对货币政策非常敏感也就不足为奇了。在全球经济疲软之际，美国推行创纪录的超低利率，促使紧张不安的投资者纷纷逃离风险资产以及安全的美国国债。美元疲软，加上通过量化宽松措施注入的大量流动性，助使投资者把黄金看作是它一直以来就担任的角色：保值工具。

美联储目前不会推行第三轮量化宽松，加上在2014年底前可能加息，这些都会对金价走势造成进一步的损害，因为这些迹象表明美国经济环境正在得到不断改善，投资者资金应该再次投向生产性（也就是风险更高）的资产。美联储量化宽松政策的结束无疑会对黄金多头造成致命一击，所以投资者现在应该提出的真正问题是：美国经济已脱离困境了吗？

如果美国经济逐步改善以及欧洲市场相对平静的状况得以持续，那么全球经济可能已接近脱离困境的边缘了。伯南克近来一直保持谨慎，指出美国经济的下行风险仍然大量存在，而欧洲央行行长德拉吉（Mario Draghi）周三坦率表示，目前诸多风险明显偏向下行。目前美国住房市场依然低迷，而就业市场虽然略有起色，但仍然比较疲弱。

欧洲太平洋贵金属公司（Euro Pacific Precious Metals）首席执行官彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）对看空美国经济前景给予了最好的理由阐述。他在其每日投资简讯中告诉投资者：“不要卷入到对美国经济复苏的狂热迷信之中。”他补充说：“美国经济复苏不仅将会止步不前——而且将会像海市蜃楼般消散无踪，而美国经济复苏现在就是一种海市蜃楼般的现象。”

希夫预计美国未来将大幅提高利率（这个情况在美联储最近对银行业的压力测试中没有予以测试），从而使主要金融机构面临的风险暴露出来。诸如摩根大通、花旗集团和美国银行等华尔街知名金融机构一直仰赖美联储提供的低息资金来维持经营。由于美联储滥发货币以及购买债券而导致的通胀率不断攀升，将迫使伯南克提高利率。以下摘自希夫的每日简讯：

“事实上，美联储加息不仅是有可能，而且是很可能发生的事情。美联储对银行业进行的压力测试假设美国长期国债的收益率保持在1.8％下方，但是1.8％是10年期国债收益率最近6个月的最低水平，而10年期国债收益率早已处于历史低位。就在我写本文之时， 10年期国债收益率已经攀升至2.2％。二战后，美国10年期国债收益率平均是5.2％左右——这个利率高得足以摧毁如今的美国银行体系。”

短期内金价势必继续下跌。预期利率攀升及美国经济环境好转表明投资者目前是时候把资金重新投放到生产性资产之中。然而，美国经济前景的改善确实也面临着诸多重大威胁，尤其是欧洲主权债务危机（很有可能再次恶化），这这可能激起投资者对经济衰退的担忧情绪。加上希夫预期的通胀压力，你可能会看到黄金如凤凰涅槃般再度上涨。最终这一切都归结到一个问题上，那就是美国经济复苏的真正力度。让我们拭目以待吧。

Why China Loves Gold

Since at least late 2010, commentators have been pointing to massive buying of gold by the Chinese as another prop for the barbarous relic. Much of the chatter has focused on solving the apparent enigma of why China would want to buy so much gold.

But a look back into history shows that there's no mystery here. There is a long tradition, in China's imperial dynasties, of hoarding vast quantities of gold. According to an article in the May 1942 issue of The Journal of Economic History by Homer Dubs, a scholar at Duke University, the treasury of Emperor Wang Mang held roughly 5 million ounces of gold around A.D. 23.

An earlier emperor, Wu, had amassed 1.6 million ounces, reported Dubs.

For comparative purposes, Dubs estimated that the ancient Persian empire controlled barely 1% as much gold and that the Roman imperial treasury at its peak had amassed only about 8% as much gold as the ancient Chinese did.

The entire stock of gold in medieval Europe, reckoned Dubs, amounted to 3.7 million ounces, while all the gold mined during the Spanish exploitation of the Americas from 1503 to 1660 totaled 5.83 million ounces.

Thus, the ancient Chinese imperial treasury may have held one of history's greatest single concentrations of gold in one place.

So there is ample precedent for the hoarding of gold by a Chinese government.

One warning note: Wang Mang ended up controlling so much gold, noted Dubs, by forbidding his empire's citizens from owning it. In the year 6 A.D., the emperor essentially nationalized the ownership of gold, confiscating it for the exclusive use of the government much as Franklin Delano Roosevelt did in the U.S. in 1933.

Gold might go up from here, or it might go down. But the Chinese aren't the newest big player in this market. They're the oldest.

中国人为什么喜欢买黄金？

从至少2010年底以来，评论人士一直把中国民众大规模购买黄金的举动称为黄金这种“野蛮的遗迹”（凯恩斯语）的又一个支撑。讨论的焦点主要在于破解这样一个貌似的谜团：中国为何想买那么多黄金。

不过，回顾一下历史就可以发现这毫不奇怪。中国古代王朝有着大量囤积黄金的悠久历史。据杜克大学(Duke University)学者达布斯(Homer Dubs)在《经济史杂志》(The Journal of Economic History) 1942年5月期上发表的一篇文章说，公元23年前后王莽执政期间，国库拥有约500万盎司黄金。

据达布斯说，在王莽之前的汉武帝囤积了160万盎司黄金。

为做比较，据达布斯估计，古代波斯帝国控制的黄金仅相当于中国古代人的1%，而在罗马帝国鼎盛时期，国库囤积的黄金仅相当于中国古代人的约8%。

据达布斯说，中世纪欧洲的黄金总储备为370万盎司，而1503年至1660年西班牙殖民美洲时期的黄金总开采量为583万盎司。

有鉴于此，中国古代王朝的国库可能是历史上黄金储备最集中的一个地方。

所以，中国政府囤积大量黄金的做法不乏先例。

值得警惕的一点是：达布斯指出，王莽是通过禁止本国民众持有黄金而最终控制了如此多的黄金。公元6年，王莽实际上将黄金所有权国有化，将私人手中的黄金充公，全部由政府使用，就像1933年美国总统罗斯福(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)实施的做法一样。

金价可能从目前的价位上涨，也可能下跌。但中国人并非黄金市场上初来乍到的大玩家，而是最古老的玩家。

India's Gold Imports Set To Resume

India's gold imports are expected to resume as jewelers restock and shoppers return after the end of a 20-day strike protesting new taxes on bullion.

'All shops have reopened,' said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association. 'Gold demand should pick up. In April and May [combined], imports will be around a 100 [metric] tons.'

While that would be a pickup from Mr. Kothari's estimate of 15 to 20 tons in March, April-May imports would still be 30% below the same period last year.

The retailers closed their shops mid-March after the government doubled the import tax on gold to 4% and imposed a tax on the trade of all gold jewelry. The government said the taxes were meant to discourage consumption, as large bullion imports were pushing up India's current-account deficit.

The reopening of the gold trade in India helped push gold futures prices higher. Gold for April delivery in New York gained $14 to settle at $1,642.50 a troy ounce.

After losing business for nearly a month, jewelers mostly are looking for the government to scrap the domestic tax when the finance minister reviews his position. 'If he doesn't, we will go on strike again,' said Haresh Soni, vice chairman of All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

Jewelers are mostly concerned about the paperwork accompanying the domestic tax. The tax already is imposed on larger gold-jewelry companies, and the filing process is complicated.

The new tax is expanded to small jewelry shops, many of which lack the financial resources to hire accountants and fear greater scrutiny from tax officials.

Higher taxes, however, had little impact on retail demand Monday as shoppers returned to the reopened jewelry stores.

'I was waiting for the strike to end as I wanted to order a pair of bangles for my wife's birthday in June,' said Chetan Dani, a 44-year-old businessman who was at Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar.

Gold sales could pick up further with Akshaya Tritiya, one of India's biggest gold-buying occasions, which falls on April 24. Moreover, the wedding season has started in some parts of India already. Gold is an integral part of most Indian weddings.

'We got calls from customers looking to buy gold on Saturday itself,' said Kumar Jain, vice president of Mumbai Jewellers' Association. 'The marriage season is continuing and we are expecting good demand.'

印度金店罢工结束 黄金进口将恢复

印度对黄金征收的新税引发了罢工。在持续了20天的罢工结束后，随着珠宝商补充库存及消费者重返商店购买黄金首饰，预计印度的黄金进口将会恢复。

孟买黄金协会(Bombay Bullion Association)会长科萨里(Prithviraj Kothari)说，所有的商店都恢复了营业，黄金需求应该会回升；今年4、5月份，黄金进口量总计将达约100吨。

尽管这个数字较科萨里预计的3月份15到20吨的黄金进口量有所上升，4、5月份的进口量仍将较去年同期低30%。

今年3月中旬，政府将黄金进口税提高了一倍至4%，并对全部黄金首饰交易征税，导致零售商关闭了店铺。政府说，征税意在为黄金消费降温，因为大量的黄金进口开始推高印度的经常项目赤字。

印度黄金交易的恢复帮助推高了黄金期货价格。纽约4月交割黄金期货上涨14美元，至每盎司1,642.50美元。

经过了近一个月的业务流失后，珠宝商普遍开始指望印度财政部长进行工作总结时会宣布取消国内黄金首饰交易税。全印珠宝首饰交易联盟(All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation)副主席索尼(Haresh Soni)说，如果不取消黄金首饰交易税，我们将再次罢工。

珠宝商普遍担心的是国内黄金首饰交易税的申报工作。该税已经向较大的黄金首饰公司征收，申报过程还非常复杂。

新税将扩大到小型珠宝店，其中很多缺乏聘用会计师的经济实力，而且还可能面临税务官员更大力度的审查。

不过，增税周一对零售需求几乎没有造成影响，消费者重返恢复了营业的珠宝店。

孟买扎韦里集市(Zaveri Bazaar)上的44岁商人达尼(Chetan Dani)说，我正等着罢工结束，因为我想为太太6月份的生日订一对手镯。

随着4月24日Akshaya Tritiya节的到来，黄金销量可能会进一步攀升。Akshaya Tritiya节是印度最大规模的黄金购买场合之一。此外，在印度一些地区，婚礼季已经开始。黄金是印度大部分婚礼必不可少的一部分。

孟买珠宝商协会(Mumbai Jewellers' Association)副会长杰恩(Kumar Jain)说，上周六就已经有客户打电话过来想买黄金，婚礼季在继续，我们预计黄金需求会很旺盛。

The next leg of gold’s bull run

Has the great bull run in gold run its course?

On the surface it looks as if it might have. After running up close to $2,000 an ounce during the market panic of last autumn, it has slipped below $1,700. And it shows little sign of reclaiming its highs.

But here’s one reason why it could have a lot further to go.

The big, developed world central banks will start buying again. And if they do, it would put real rocket fuel into the price of the precious metal.

In his budget last week, British Chancellor George Osborne caused a small flurry in the markets with a line that suggested the Bank of England might start stockpiling gold. The U.K. Treasury quickly denied it, saying that he had just been talking about reserves in general, rather than gold specifically.

But in fact, Osborne was onto something.

The developed world central banks should all be increasing their reserves dramatically. The best way would be by refilling their vaults with the precious metal.

In his speech, Osborne said that he planned to increase Britain’s reserves, something most developed countries have not worried about for the best part of three decades. They are certainly in a sorry state. For a major developed economy, the U.K.’s reserves are laughably tiny.

Under the previous prime minister, Gordon Brown, the country sold off a lot of its gold right at the bottom of the market. Its total reserves now amount to just $46 billion. That is up a bit from the $34 billion they stood at when the new government took office, mainly because of the increase in the value of its gold holdings and also the extra deposits committed to the International Monetary Fund.

But the U.K.’s hoard of gold and foreign currency is dwarfed by China’s reserves, which currently stand at a towering $3.18 trillion, as well as by Japan with $1.2 trillion, and by Saudi Arabia with $500 billion.

In common with most developed countries — Japan excluded — the U.K. has no reserves worth speaking of. In truth, what is interesting is how low the reserves held by all the developed nations now are. Switzerland is the only European country with significant reserves, with $340 billion squirreled away, whilst Germany has $257 billion, and France has $172 billion. The U.S. only has $148.5 billion, although when you can print the world’s reserve currency maybe that doesn’t matter so much. Overall, however, it is only the emerging nations that have built up significant cash piles.

But, as Osborne hinted, they need to think about raising them. He probably isn’t the only finance minister to be planning on stockpiling more assets. Even if they are not talking about it yet, others will have the same plan.

Here’s why.

First, foreign exchange reserves are critical if you face a financial crisis. If the banking system needs to be propped up, then you need some assets to play with. Of course, the central bank can always print some money. But in a crisis, the markets may demand something more solid – and that means having reserves.

Next, they give you the ability to intervene in the currency markets. The U.K. has managed to devalue its currency substantially, one of the few factors saving its economy from an outright depression. Other countries may want to do the same — getting your exchange rate right is a key plank of economic policy. But you can’t manipulate the markets without anything to sell, and that means holding reserves.

Finally, the credit rating agencies offset reserves against government liabilities, so they can be critical to maintaining your credit rating. For most of the last 50 years, the developed nations have not had to worry about their balance sheets. For the next 50 years, with ageing populations, and already downing in debt, they will have to worry about them a lot. The more reserves you have, the better (or at least less bad) your balance sheet looks.

So what is the best way to increase reserves?

Most paper currencies are sinking fast. Reserves with the International Monetary Fund have no real secure value and the IMF’s quasi-currency, known as the Special Drawing Right, is made up of four funny-looking paper currencies rather than just one.

But reserves held in gold can be expected to grow in value every year. Indeed, cynically, by holding more gold central banks are insuring themselves against their own profligacy. They print money. They price of gold goes up. And if they hold a lot of the stuff in their vaults, they are the big winners from the rise in price. If you can pull it off — and there isn’t anything to stop you — that sounds like an easy way to make a living.

Central banks in the emerging markets increasing their holdings of gold has been a big part of the bull market in the metal. At the end of last year, official net purchases of gold started to rise dramatically. In the third quarter of 2011, central banks added 148.8 tonnes to their gold stocks, more than double the entire amount of government buying in 2010, according to the World Gold Council. Interestingly, the Greek central bank has been slowly adding to its holdings of gold, which would be sort of handy, should they happen to decide to re-introduce the drachmas one day.

But the next phase will be developed world central banks moving back into precious metal; the U.K., Germany, France, Switzerland and potentially the U.S. as well.

The U.K. has given the first hints that policy makers are at least thinking about it. Actual buying maybe some way off. And if they start, it will be done discreetly, otherwise the price will shoot up.

But when it starts to happen seriously, it will provide the bull market in gold with a whole new impetus.

金价仍会上涨的几点理由

黄金的迅猛涨势已经气数已尽了吗？

表面看来似乎如此。在去年秋季的市场恐慌期，金价一度飙升至2,000美元每盎司，随后又回跌至1,700美元每盎司下方，而且几乎没有表现出什么重返高点的迹象。

不过，有一个理由能说明为什么金价还有很多上涨空间，那就是发达大国的央行将开始再次出手买入黄金。如果他们这么做了，那将会实实在在地给金价注入飙升的动力。

在上周提交预算案发表演讲时，英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)暗示英国央行或许会开始储备黄金的一句话引发市场发生了一阵小范围波动。随后英国财政部迅速予以否认，称奥斯本只是在谈论一般的储备，而不是特指黄金。

但是，奥斯本确实是透露了一些苗头。

发达国家的央行都应该要大幅提高储备，最好的方法则是重新将金库装满黄金。

奥斯本在演讲中谈到，他计划增加英国的储备，大多数发达国家在形势最好的三十年里都不曾担心过这个问题。显然它们现在的处境都不妙。对于像英国这样的重要发达经济体，其储备真是少得可笑。

在前任首相戈登•布朗（Gordon Brown）的任期内，英国正好在市场最低点以低价卖掉了不少黄金。如今其黄金总储备的价值只相当于460亿美元，比新任政府刚上台时的340亿美元高出一些，这主要得益于其黄金储备升值以及交托给国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的那批额外储备。

然而，与中国的储备相比，英国的黄金和外汇储备就相形见绌了。目前中国的储备高达3.18万亿美元，日本和沙特的储备则分别为1.2万亿美元和5,000亿美元。

与大多数发达国家情况相同（日本除外），英国没有一项值得一提的储备。实际上，有趣的事情是当前所有这些发达国家的储备到底有多低。瑞士持有价值3,400亿美元的储备，是唯一一个持有高额储备的欧洲国家，而德国和法国则分别为2,570亿美元和1,720亿美元。此外，美国只持有1,485亿美元储备，尽管对于能够印发世界储备货币的国家来说，这或许算不上什么大问题。然而，总的说来，目前的情况是只有新兴国家建立了巨大的现金储备。

不过，正如奥斯本所暗示的，这些发达国家需要考虑一下提高储备，他可能并不是唯一一个计划储备更多资产的财长。即使英国不谈论这个问题，其他国家也将会做出同样的打算。

原因如下：

首先，如果一个国家面临金融危机的话，外汇储备将起着至关重要的作用。如果金融体系需要获得支撑，那么你需要一些资产去出手相助。当然，央行总是能够自己印些钱，但在危机时期，市场可能会要求一些更稳健的资产，这就意味着你要持有储备。

其次，储备能让你具备干预货币市场的能力。英国已成功使英镑大幅贬值，这是避免其经济陷入彻底衰退的几个举措之一。其他国家或许也想这么做，因此保持恰当的汇率是经济政策的一个重要支持，但是你不能在没有任何东西可卖的情况下操纵市场，这也意味着你要持有储备。

最后，信用评级机构在评级时会以储备抵消政府债务，如此说来储备对维持一国的信用评级可能至关重要。最近50年，大多数时候发达国家都用不着担心自己的财务状况。然而，在未来50年，随着人口的老龄化，再加上陷入债务问题，这些国家将不得不非常关心储备问题。持有的储备越多，你的财务状况看上去会更好（或者至少没那么坏）。

那么，什么才是提高储备的最佳途径？

大多数纸币都在迅速贬值。此外，存在国际货币基金组织的储备也不具有实际的保值价值，而且该组织的准货币（即“特别提款权”）是由四种、而非只是一种纸币构成的。

可以期待的是，以黄金形式持有的储备有望逐年升值。实际上，具有讽刺意味的是，众央行正通过增持黄金来应对自己滥发货币的行为。它们一印钱，金价就会随之上涨。如果它们储备了大量黄金，那么它们将是金价上涨的赢家。如果能这么做的话（也没有什么事情能阻挡这种做法），这听上去倒是一个谋生的轻松方法。

增持黄金储备的新兴市场央行一直都是黄金牛市的重大参与者。去年年底，官方的黄金净买入额开始显著上升。据世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）的数据显示，2011年第三季度，众央行的黄金储备总计增加了148.8公吨，是2010年政府买入总量的两倍多。有趣的是，希腊央行也一直在慢慢增持黄金储备，如果它决定要在哪一天重新推出德拉克马的话，那就要方便一些了。

不过，接下来将是发达国家央行出马重返贵金属市场的时候了，其中包括英国、德国、法国和瑞士，美国可能也会加入。

英国已经首先发出决策者至少已经在考虑这个问题的暗示。实际出手买入或许还要等一段时间。而且一旦他们开始行动，他们也会悄无声息地做，否则金价恐怕会迅速暴涨。

当事情确实开始发生时，它将会给黄金的牛市行情带去全新的推动力。

Gold Shines On

Gold’s speculative investors may have been shaken by the yellow metal’s wild ride last year, but the physical market—particularly in China—remained faithful to bullion.

According to an annual report by metals consultancy GFMS–a unit of Thomson Reuters—demand for physical gold in the form of coins and bars grew in 2012, while Chinese appetite for gold jewelry expanded to record levels.

This contrasted with a 10% drop in overall world gold investment by tonnage, amid heavy redemptions in the over-the-counter and gold futures markets as investors cashed in their gold positions amid heavy losses in other financial markets.

While investment demand dipped, 2011 was a “bumper year for physical investment,” Philip Klapwijk, head of metals analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS said. “Gold was clearly dependent on emerging markets’ economic strength as China’s jewelry demand grew to a record level, while India’s fell by less than 3%,” he said.

Chinese jewelry fabrication soared 14.6% to hit a new record high of 496 metric tons in 2011, building on a near-20% gain to 423 tons in 2010. Indian jewelry fabrication, on the other hand, fell 3.1% to 701 tons, although this compared with a record high of 723 tons in 2010.

Physical gold bar investment meanwhile surged 37% last year to a new record of 1,209 tons, according to GFMS. This was spurred by strong demand for physical gold as a store of value in China and India as well as “safe haven” interest from western investors, the report said.

Global gold coin fabrication rose 15.2% to 245.5, spurred mainly by strong demand in Turkey and China, said GFMS.

The resilience of gold physical demand, despite heightened market volatility and a record-high gold price in September, is a reflection of the type of consumers that make up this sector of the gold market, said Mark O’Byrne, director at bullion dealer GoldCore.

Not only does investment in physical gold in the form of bars and coins tend to be “stickier,” or less speculative, than other areas of the gold market, but Asian buyers—-who account for a large proportion of the physical gold market—-tend to seek items such as gold jewelry and bars as a store of wealth and a hedge against domestic inflation, said Mr. O’Byrne.

He added:“While jewelry is seen less as a store of value in the west because of high taxes and astronomical price mark-ups, in Asia, gold jewelry is much cheaper. Gold also has an added religious significance.”

Rising concern over inflation and the rapid hike in disposable incomes in places like China is also driving demand for physical gold, said GFMS.

According to the GFMS estimates, the volume of gold bar hoarding in China rose 40% year-on-year to a new record high at 250 tons last year.

And this trend is likely to continue.

“With the supply channel of investment bars continuing to expand via the country’s banking network, growth in this area is set for further gains in coming years, are real interest rates are likely to remain negative in the short- to medium-term,” GFMS said.

The same can be said for Chinese jewelry demand, which GFMS expects to hit a new record this year.

投机性需求减弱之际实物黄金需求依然强劲

黄金矿业服务公司(GFMS)周三公布的报告显示，2011年金价的剧烈波动可能导致了投机性投资需求的减弱，但实物黄金需求依然坚挺，部分原因是来自中国和其他新兴经济体的买盘强劲，这应会有助于金价在2012年保持高位。

尽管美国的经济复苏步伐加快，但失业率高企令经济前景依然脆弱，引发了美国推出更多刺激措施的可能性，再加上欧洲的不确定性犹存，这给经济合作与发展组织(OECD)多数地区以及中国带来了通货膨胀风险。贵金属咨询机构GFMS由此看到了给金价提供足够支撑的因素。

GFMS发布的黄金报告称，全球经济前景仍充满不确定性，这将确保能够应对疲软基本面和支撑金价的足以强劲的黄金投资需求。该机构仍预计金价在2012年年底或2013年年初将达到每盎司2,000美元左右，但表示，在不远的将来，有利于金价的宏观经济因素开始变化的可能性将增加。

报告称，2011年全球黄金投资总量较上年下降10.4%，至1,605吨，原因是在去年下半年其他金融市场大跌之际，场外交易市场和黄金期货市场投资者大幅平仓。

GFMS称，尽管投机人士离场，但实物黄金需求、尤其是中国的黄金首饰、金币和金条需求却依然保持强劲，不惧2011年创下纪录高点的金价。

GFMS表示，这一趋势有望在2012年延续，因新兴市场对实物黄金的需求将继续增长，超出其他地区的需求。在通胀担忧持续和收入不断增加之际，中国2012年农历新年假日前后黄金零售额的强劲表现便是最新的例证之一。

GFMS表示，经济的持续增长以及将黄金作为另类资产的强烈愿望可能会推动中国今年的黄金首饰加工量再创新高。

报告显示，中国2011年黄金首饰加工量增长14.6%，创下496吨的纪录新高，2010年则增长近20%，至423吨。这与全球黄金首饰加工量的总体下滑趋势形成反差：2011年全球黄金首饰加工量下降2.2%，至1,973吨。

GFMS表示，2011年金条的全球需求量飙升37%，至1,209吨的纪录新高。原因在于，中国和印度市场对实物黄金作为保值资产的需求旺盛，同时西方投资者也存在避险需求。

GFMS称，2011年仅中国的金条需求就增长了40%，达到250吨，2010年为179吨。

报告称，2011年全球金币加工量增长15.2%，至245.5吨，主要受土耳其和中国的强劲增长驱动。

金条交易商GoldCore的Mark O'Byrne表示，尽管市场波动加剧且金价在去年9月触及每盎司1,920.94美元的纪录高点，但实物黄金需求依然坚挺，这反映出黄金市场中投资实物黄金的投资者的状况。

O'Byrne表示，相对于黄金市场其他领域，金条和金币等实物黄金投资中的投机性成分趋于下降，而且亚洲投资者也更倾向于投资黄金首饰和金条作为应对通胀的保值资产。

GFMS表示，中国银行系统投资性金条供应渠道的扩大应会进一步推升中国金条市场需求。

Financial Time（金融时报）

China Yuan Inches Closer To Global Currency

China’s yuan is just two years away from becoming a global trade currency.

A system to settle cross-border yuan transactions and boost the convertibility of the currency is being set up in Beijing and will be rolled out by 2014, Central Bank officials noted yesterday. Once set up, it would allow countries to settle payments in Chinese goods in yuans instead of dollars. Over the long term, the use of the yuan, particularly in Asian trade, would take some demand away from the dollar which currently enjoys the status of both the world’s reserve and trade currency.

Currently cross-border yuan clearance is conducted through the Hong Kong and Macao branches of the Bank of China, or agency banks of overseas participants. Actual demand for cross-border yuan settlement is increasing in Asia, but transaction costs in the current payment system are higher than the dollar.

“The new system will link domestic and overseas participants directly, and support different languages including Chinese and English. What’s more, the working hours will be extended to 17 or 18 from the current eight to nine hours to cover yuan settlement demand from different time zones,” said Li Yue, director of the payment and settlement department at the People’s Bank of China in a China Daily report on Thursday.

Li said that the system will adopt global standards, and probably use the international messaging service, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, commonly known as SWIFT.

International trade settled in yuan currently exceeds 2 trillion yuan ($317 billion) and foreign direct investment settled in yuan reached 110 billion yuan last year, according to the Central Bank.

For the World Bank, China’s growing role in global trade, the size of its economy and its role as the one of the world’s largest lenders, mean that the yuan’s internationalization is “inevitable”. Acceptance of the Chinese currency as a major global reserve currency, however, will depend on the pace and success of financial sector reforms and the opening of China’s external capital accounts, the World Bank said.

人民币离国际化还有两年

短短两年之内，中国人民币就将成为一种全球贸易货币。

中国央行官员昨日表示，一个旨在促进跨境人民币交易结算并增强人民币可兑换性的系统正在北京建立，而且将在2014年建成并投入使用。该系统一旦建成，将使各国能够用人民币（而不是美元）对中国商品进行支付结算。从长远来看，使用人民币进行贸易结算——尤其是在亚洲贸易中，将减少部分美元贸易结算需求，而美元目前享有世界储备货币及贸易货币的双重地位。

目前，跨境人民币结算是通过中国银行香港和澳门分行或参与跨境人民币结算的海外代理行进行。亚洲跨境人民币结算的实际需求目前正在不断增长，但目前人民币跨境支付系统的交易成本高于美元。

“这个新的人民币跨境支付系统将直接连接境内外参与者，支持包括中英文在内的各种不同语言，而且工作时间将从目前的8至9小时延长至17至18至小时，以满足不同时区的人民币结算需求。”中国人民银行支付结算司司长励跃周四在《中国日报》的一篇报道中如是表示。

励跃表示，该系统将采用全球标准，很可能使用国际通讯服务——俗称SWIFT的环球银行间金融电讯协会（Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication）。

据中国央行透露，2011年跨境贸易人民币结算量超过2万亿元（合3,170亿美元），跨境直接投资人民币结算量达1,100亿元。

对于世界银行来说，中国在全球贸易中日益增强的地位、其经济规模以及作为世界上最大贷款国的地位，意味着人民币的国际化是“不可避免的”。然而，世界银行表示，人民币是否能被接受为全球主要储备货币，将取决于中国金融部门改革的步伐及成功，以及中国对外资本账户的开放。

Sino-Forest Seeks Court Protection

Chinese timber company Sino-Forest Corp. said on Friday it will seek creditor protection under Canadian law as it pursues the sale of most of its assets.

The move marks the latest step in a downward spiral for the company that started last June, when U.S. short seller Muddy Waters LLC issued a report alleging Sino-Forest had fraudulently exaggerated the value of its plantation assets. Sino-Forest said Friday it has started legal action against Muddy Waters, alleging defamation.

Sino-Forest executives have long defended the company against Muddy Waters' allegations, but shareholders abandoned the company. A subsequent share collapse burned investors including American hedge fund billionaire John Paulson and led to several ongoing investigations by Canadian authorities.

In the months after the claims by Muddy Waters, Sino-Forest established a board committee to look into the allegations. It concluded there was no evidence of fraud.

But the company also said at the time that could not definitively value its timber holdings, further undermining investor confidence in the company. While listed in Canada, the company's main operations are in China. Trading in Sino-Forest has been halted since last August, when the stock fell to C$5 (US$5.02) from more than C$20 months earlier in Toronto.

Sino-Forest said on Friday it launched legal action against Muddy Waters, the firm's principal, Carson Block, and others relating to the allegations made against Sino-Forest. Sino-Forest said it is alleging in its legal motion with the Ontario Superior Court of Justice that public statements made by Muddy Waters and Mr. Block were defamatory. The action seeks $4 billion in damages.

Muddy Waters, a U.S.-based firm, conducts research on Chinese companies and engages in short selling of the subjects of its reports.

'This is yet another indication of what we have said all along, that Sino-Forest's management has committed a massive fraud and has deceived its shareholders and creditors,' Mr. Block said in a statement issued by Muddy Waters on Friday.

In a statement Friday, Sino-Forest said it believes the full value of its assets can only be realized if it can continue to operate while repairing relationships with customers and suppliers, adding that a court-supervised restructuring process will give it needed breathing room.

Sino-Forest and a group representing its noteholders have agreed on the material terms of a transaction which would involve either a sale of the company to a third party or a restructuring under which the noteholders would acquire substantially all of Sino-Forest's assets, it said.

嘉汉林业就整体出售或重组寻求保护

中国木材公司嘉汉林业(Sino-Forest Corp.)上周五说，在出售其多数资产的过程中，它将根据加拿大法律寻求债权人保护。

此举标志着该公司始于去年6月份的螺旋下降过程出现了最新进展。去年6月，美国空头机构Muddy Waters LLC发表报告声称嘉汉林业曾虚报林场资产价值。嘉汉林业上周五说，公司已经以涉嫌诽谤对Muddy Waters提起了诉讼。

嘉汉林业的高管长期为公司辩护，否认Muddy Waters的种种指控，但股东抛弃了这家公司。随后的股价暴跌严重打击了美国对冲基金大鳄鲍尔森(John Paulson)等投资者，加拿大有关部门也因而展开多起调查，这些调查目前仍在进行之中。

在Muddy Waters发布报告之后的几个月，嘉汉林业董事会成立委员会调查相关指控，最后认定没有证据表明存在欺诈。

但嘉汉林业当时也表示无法为其木材资产明确定价，因而进一步打击了投资者对公司的信心。虽然是在加拿大上市，该公司的主要运营机构都是在中国。嘉汉林业在多伦多的股票从去年8月份以来一直停牌，停牌之前的已从几个月前的20多加元降至5加元（约5.02美元）。

嘉汉林业上周五说，公司已经提起法律诉讼，被告包括Muddy Waters及其负责人布洛克(Carson Block)，还包括与指控嘉汉林业相关的其他方面。嘉汉林业说，它将向安大略省高级法院(Ontario Superior Court of Justice)提起诉讼，指控Muddy Waters和布洛克发布的公开言论是诽谤。这次诉讼要求对方赔偿40亿美元的损失。

总部设在美国的Muddy Waters公司研究中国公司，并参与做空其报告中的研究对象。

布洛克周五通过Muddy Waters发表声明说，这再次揭示了我们一直以来所说的事实，即嘉汉林业管理层曾经从事大规模欺诈活动，并曾欺骗股东和债权人。

嘉汉林业上周五发表声明说，公司相信，实现公司资产全面市值的唯一方法就是公司能够继续经营业务，同时修复及维护公司与客户和供应商的关系。声明还说，如果在法庭监督下进行重组，公司就能获得急需的喘息空间。

嘉汉林业和一个代表其证券持有人的团体曾就一桩交易的实质性条款达成一致。根据条款规定，要么将公司出售给第三方，要么进行重组，让证券持有人取得嘉汉林业的几乎全部资产。

Shanghai Cracks Door Open for Hedge Funds

The Chinese yuan is still in the early stages of appreciation and remains an attractive investment, although less so than previously, a senior official at bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co. said.

Ramin Toloui, global co-head of emerging markets, said in an interview that nondeliverable forwards were likely to generate a positive return over the coming year. He tipped the yuan to climb 1%-3% against the dollar, whereas NDFs imply a depreciation of 0.4%.

"Our view is that on a fundamental basis we are still in the early stages of the Chinese renminbi appreciation story," Toloui told Dow Jones Newswires.

"But the nearer-term outlook is one where the rate of currency appreciation is likely to be lower than it has been in the past."

Toloui forecast Chinese economic growth in the upper-7% area in the coming year. He said aggressive expansionary policy was unlikely as Beijing manages a dual soft landing--in demand and production, and in the financial sector--while retaining some upside for 2013, the first full year of its new leadership.

While bank reserve ratios will be the focus of any easing, verbal signaling may play as important a role, Toloui added.

"The most important thing for investors is not to be whipsawed by exaggerating the likely move in either direction," he said.

Toloui said Pimco was overweight Asian currencies, in particular the Singapore dollar, Korean won and Indian rupee, based on their yields and current valuations.

The rupee may suffer from greater volatility, due to India's current-account deficit, but its depreciation over the past year makes it more attractive from a valuation perspective, he said.

On credit, Toloui said selectivity was key, as markets globally have priced in a lot of improvement, and inflows into emerging-market assets have squeezed value out of some sectors.

Euro-zone developments will continue to be an incredibly important driver, he said, adding that the single biggest risk was if politics on the bloc's periphery started to reject crucial austerity programs. Another significant risk is that tightening weakens growth, making adjustments hard to maintain, he added.

"The market might be repricing a lot of credit risk amid continued difficulties in Europe," he warned.

Toloui said Pimco--the world's largest bond investor--continues to like South Korean policy bank bonds, given their yield advantage over Treasurys and perceived strong sovereign support.

He highlighted continuing risks to China's high-yield property sector, and said a cautious approach was definitely warranted.

"In that sector, a lot of the value has been recognized. Like in many credit sectors, there's been a pricing in of a better global economic trajectory and a better economic trajectory within China than we think is likely to materialize," Toloui said.

Pimco高管：人民币仍处在升值初期阶段

Pacific Investment Management Co. (简称Pimco)的全球新兴市场联席主管Ramin Toloui表示，人民币仍处在升值的初期阶段，作为投资对象仍具吸引力，尽管吸引力较之前有所下降。

Toloui在接受专访时表示，未来一年人民币无本金交割远期可能会实现正回报。他预计，人民币兑美元将升值1%-3%，但人民币无本金交割远期则预示人民币将贬值0.4%。

Toloui对道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)透露，该公司的观点为，从基本面看，人民币仍处在其升值的初期阶段；但估计人民币近期的升值速度或比之前放慢。

Toloui预测，未来一年中国经济增速将在7.5%至8%之间。他表示，中国政府不太可能采取积极的扩张性政策，因政府正设法在需求与产能、以及金融领域实现双重软着陆，同时还要为2013年留出一些上行空间，为新领导人上台后的首年表现做准备。

他还称，尽管政策放松将主要集中在银行业存款准备金率方面，但言论信号也将扮演重要角色。

他补充称，对投资者来说，最重要的是不要轻易被夸大任何一种方向的言论所左右。

Toloui表示，基于收益率和当前估值，Pimco增持了亚洲货币，特别是新加坡元、韩圆和印度卢比。

他谈到，受印度经常项目赤字的影响，印度卢比可能出现更大波动，但由于在过去一年中经历贬值，从估值角度来看，印度卢比变得更有吸引力。

他表示，在信用产品方面，保持选择性是关键，全球市场已对信用状况的改善进行了消化，流入新兴市场资产的资金已导致部分领域投资价值降低。

Toloui指出，欧元区形势的演变将继续成为极其重要的推动因素，目前最大的一个风险是欧元区外围国家政治人士开始反对关键紧缩措施的可能性。他同时表示，另一个重大风险是，紧缩措施将导致经济增速放缓，从而使政策调整难以为继。

他警告称，鉴于欧洲继续面临困境，市场或将对较大信用风险的出现重新作出反映。

Toloui表示，作为全球最大的债券投资机构，Pimco依然青睐韩国政策银行发行的债券，因为其收益率较美国国债具有优势，且预期这类债券将获得强有力的主权支持。

他同时强调，中国高收益的房地产行业将继续面临风险，确实应对其持谨慎态度。

他还表示，地产行业的许多价值已经被挖掘。在许多信用领域，市场已对全球及中国经济趋势好于预想有所体现。

Eurozone ministers boost firewall to $1tn

Finance ministers in Copenhagen have agreed to increase the size of the eurozone's rescue funds.

Eurozone countries agreed to boost the joint lending power of the "firewall" from 500bn to 800bn euros ($1.1tn; £667bn).

The firewall is the permanent mechanism to bail out troubled eurozone nations.

But in reality, what the eurozone countries are doing is making commitments available earlier that they had already agreed to give.

As Spain and Italy's finances have looked more precarious, investors have been worried about whether the eurozone's firewall could cope with more bailouts.

The new enlarged fund, combined with what the International Monetary Fund has agreed to lend to the eurozone, should be enough to cope with a new crisis, some suggest.

"Including the IMF commitments, this is enough to take care of Italy and Spain for the next three years and that was the point of this exercise," Christoph Weil, senior economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told the BBC.

He added that he did not think Spain and Italy would require bailouts.

Others were less convinced.

"Today's decision is a classic European compromise," said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING bank in Brussels.

"It was as far as the German government was willing to go and it was the minimum most other eurozone countries were expecting.

"A bigger increase... could have sent a stronger signal and would have been more convincing," he said.

IMF head Christine Lagarde welcomed the move.

"The IMF has long emphasised that enhanced European and global firewalls, together with the implementation of strong policy frameworks, are critical for ending the crisis and securing international financial stability," she said.

'Strategy paid off'

The existing fund - the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) - has already been used to rescue the Republic of Ireland and Portugal, and is committed to providing part of Greece's second bailout.

It will have only 200bn euros in remaining lending capacity from the middle of this year, which can only be used for new rescues "in exceptional circumstances".

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was originally intended to be a permanent replacement for the EFSF, but now the two will overlap from the middle of this year.

The combined lending of the two funds will be set at a total of 700bn euros.

Including two other loans already made to Greece, the eurozone said the firewall is now above 800bn euros.

"Robust firewalls have been established," the eurozone ministers said. "This comprehensive strategy has paid off and led to a significant improvement of market conditions."

Debate over size

Earlier this week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - a forum of the world's rich democratic nations - recommended increasing the bailout funds to 1 trillion euros, or about 11% of the eurozone's gross domestic product.

Its head, Angel Gurria, called for ministers to agree what he described as "the mother of all firewalls".

But Germany favoured only a modest increase at the summit of the finance ministers of the 17 nations that use the euro in the Danish capital.

As recently as this week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she would favour only a temporary increase to 700bn euros.

But any increase beyond the 800bn euros that the eurozone agreed would be hard to get through the German parliament, Commerzbank's Mr Weil said.

"There was speculation that the total would be higher, but from the German perspective, this was the maximum they could extract," he added.

Speaking before the meeting, the Republic of Ireland's Michael Noonan said: "If we get to 800 or beyond 800, the denominated amount in dollars... presents a very serious firewall to prevent attacks on Europe."

Many eurozone members, including France, were thought to be in favour of a big increase in order to ensure that larger eurozone countries are not drawn back into the crisis.

Concerns have been raised over Spain, which has failed to cut its borrowing as much as promised, and which faces violent protests against labour market reforms intended to boost its flagging economy.

"I am confident of our capacity to reach an agreement, we will reach a consensus," said French Finance Minister Francois Baroin as he arrived for the talks.

"The right size of the fund depends on how you approach the issue."

Third bailout?

Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has raised the possibility of a third bailout for his country in an interview with Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore.

"It cannot be excluded that some financial support may be necessary, but we must try hard to avoid such an outcome," Mr Papademos said.

"Greece will do everything possible to make a third adjustment programme unnecessary.

"Having said that, markets may not be accessible by Greece even if it has implemented fully all measures agreed upon," he said.

A meeting to decide who will be the next head of the Eurogroup - which is the eurozone countries plus the head of the European Central Bank and the Commission - broke up on Friday without a decision.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the current chairman, cancelled a scheduled news conference after becoming angry with the Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter for leaving the meeting early and announcing the decision on the firewall prematurely.

It means a delay - until mid-April - to find out who will replace Mr Juncker and whether Yves Mersch from Luxembourg will take a seat on the ECB board.

欧元区财长将防火墙设定为1万亿欧元

欧洲财长们在哥本哈根会议上达成了一致，同意加大欧元区救助基金的规模。

欧元区国家统计加强“防火墙”的借款能力，将借款规模从5000亿提高到8000亿欧元。

这个防火墙是作为一个永久性机制，援助有麻烦的欧元区国家。

实际上，现在欧元区国家做的不过就是对他们曾经达成的一致再次重申而已。

西班牙和意大利现在看起来更加不稳定，投资者开始担心欧元区的防火墙能不能像他们提供稳定基金。

有些人认为，新扩大的基金，加上国际货币基金组织同意向欧元区的借款，足以让欧元区国家应对新的危机。

法兰克福的(德国) 商业银行高级经济学家Christoph Weil对BBC说：“加上国际货币基金组织的借款，使西班牙和意大利完全可以过得去，这就是这个行动的意义所在。”

他还补充说，他认为意大利和西班牙不需要稳定基金。

其他人却没有他这么有信心。

“今天的决定是一个经典的欧洲妥协，” 布鲁塞尔的荷兰国际集团（ING）的经济学家Carsten Brzeski说。

“这和德国政府的愿望很近似，也是大多数欧元区其他国家所希望的最小额度。”

“大幅增加……释放了一个强烈的信号，也更具说服力。”他说

国际货币基金组织总裁Christine Lagarde支持这一行动。

她说：“国际货币基金组织一直重视加强欧洲和世界的防火墙，配合实施强有力的框架政策，对于结束危机，保证国际金融稳定非常关键。”

“策略取得成功”

现行的基金——欧洲金融稳定机构——已经用来挽救爱尔兰共和国和葡萄牙，也承诺为希腊提供部分第二批稳定基金。

今年上半年现在还剩下2000亿欧元的借款能力，这笔钱要用于应对“特殊情况”

最初想用欧洲稳定机制来代替欧洲金融稳定机构，但是现在看来，从今年年中开始，这两套制度要叠加使用。

两个机制加起来的借款将设定为总额7000亿欧元。

加上提供给希腊政府的其他两笔借款，现在欧元区的防火墙据说已经超过了8000亿欧元。

欧元区财长们称：“已经建立了强有力的防火墙，这个全面策略已经发挥作用，市场环境明显改善。”

对于规模的争论

这周早些时候，经济合作与发展组织——一个世界富裕、民主国家饿论坛——建议将救助基金提高到1万亿欧元，相当于欧元区国家GDP的11%。

总干事安吉尔·葛利亚要求欧元区通过他所提出的“防火墙之母”计划。

但是在丹麦首都召开的欧元区17国财长高峰会议上，德国仅仅倾向于小幅度的增加。

就在这周，德国总理默克尔说，他更乐于暂时性增长到7000亿欧元。

德国商业一行的Weil先生说，如果增加超过了8000亿欧元，那么就很难在德国议会获得通过。

他补充说：“也许考虑总额可以更高，但是在德国，这就是最大限额了。”

爱尔兰财长努南在会议前说：“如果我们能够做到8000或者多于8000亿，主要为美元……这就意味这在建立了一个防御欧洲的强劲防火墙。”

包括法国在内的许多欧元国都希望大幅增加援助基金，这样就可以保证那些欧元区的打过不会被带入到危机中去。

由于西班牙没有按照承诺的那样大幅削减借款，因此对西班牙的状态更加怀疑。它为了刺激不稳定的经济而采取的劳动市场改革也遭到了强烈抗议。

法国财长Francois Baroin讲话时说：“我相信我们有能力达成一致，我们将达成共识。”

“多大规模合适，这要看你怎么处理这个事件。”

是否需要第三轮援助基金？

希腊总理帕帕季莫斯在接受《24小时太阳报》采访时说，有可能需要第三次援助基金。

他说：“不排除需要一些金融援助，但是我们必须努力避免这种结果。”

“希腊将竭尽全力不要第三次调整。”

他说：“我们已经说过，即使全面采取我们目前达成一致的措施，希腊进入市场也非易事。”

在讨论谁作为欧洲集团首脑，同时也是欧元国家、欧洲中央银行、欧洲理事会的首脑时没有达成一致意见。

欧元集团主席让克洛德·容克对于奥地利财政部长费克特(MariaFekter)过早离开会议，并宣称现在就决定防火墙问题还为时过早表示不满，并取消了一场原定的新闻发布会。这就意味这至少要到4月中旬才能知晓谁来代替容克，以及来自卢森堡公国的Yves Mersch能否成为欧洲中央银行董事会的总裁。

More Steps Considered in Push to Open Yuan

BEIJING—China is considering increasing the ability of Chinese corporations to borrow yuan-denominated funds outside its borders for use on the mainland, according to people familiar with the matter, a potential move aimed at broadening cross-border capital flows as it pushes to make the yuan a global currency.

After a large number of complaints from consumers, China's bank regulator has warned lenders they will be severely punished for excessive fees. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to Beijing reporter Dinny McMahon.

Chinese authorities late last year started allowing mainland-based nonfinancial companies to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong, the former British colony that has become a testing ground for a freer yuan over the past two years. But, so far, Chinese companies have had limited ability to borrow yuan directly from banks offshore and bring the yuan back to the mainland.

Now, the People's Bank of China and other government agencies are weighing a quota-based system through which approved mainland businesses would be able to take out yuan loans offshore and remit the funds, the people said. The PBOC didn't respond to a request for comment.

China tightly controls capital flows as well as the yuan, also known as the renminbi. In a January speech to Chinese importers and exporters, PBOC Assistant Gov. Li Dongrong said, "We will push ahead with developing a virtuous cycle in renminbi cross-border flows and further expanding the channels for cross-border renminbi flows."

The deliberation follows a one-time approval given by China's top economic planning agency late last year to China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group. Under that approval, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the state-owned nuclear-power company was allowed to borrow and remit three billion yuan ($475 million) from Bank of China Ltd.'s Hong Kong subsidiary.

A number of issues still need to be worked out. One is whether Chinese authorities would allow funds to be remitted in the form of long-term or short-term debt. Wary of short-term speculative capital inflows, Chinese authorities restrict remittances of yuan-bond proceeds to long-term uses such as fixed capital investment. Some market participants have called for classifying more remittance as short-term, giving businesses more flexibility.

Such a shift would indicate an acknowledgment by the authorities that "offshore yuan borrowing does not embody the same level of risk as other foreign-currency borrowing," said Woon Khien Chia, a Singapore-based analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

The authorities are considering a quota-based system because they aren't yet ready to open the floodgate for fear of draining the yuan liquidity in the offshore market, said the people familiar with the matter. The offshore market already has been shrinking in recent months due to increased cross-border yuan flows and reduced expectation of yuan appreciation. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong's banking system dropped 1.7% in February from a month earlier to 566 billion yuan, according to the most recent data available, marking the third straight monthly decline.

Chinese companies have had limited ability to borrow yuan directly from banks offshore and bring the yuan back to the mainland.

Also, authorities are moving gingerly because of concerns over the potential shock to domestic monetary policy from capital inflows, the people said.

On the other hand, China is slowly loosening its grip on its currency and cross-border money flows as it explores ways to boost the use of the yuan internationally.

Analysts said enhancing the ability of Chinese companies to borrow offshore also could help China move toward a more market-based interest-rate system from the current government-regulated one, because offshore loans are priced based on market demand and supply. China currently tightly controls lending rates.

"Starting at a controlled manner, a quota system would be viewed positively by the markets," said Becky Liu, a Hong Kong-based strategist at HSBC Holdings PLC. "A quota system would carry forward interest-rate and capital-account liberalization while retaining stability in the offshore market under the backdrop of already declining offshore renminbi deposit base."

Since late last year, China has taken a number of steps toward making it easier for the yuan to flow into and out of the mainland, though it remains a long way from setting the yuan free.

It has rolled out trial programs to allow foreign investors to buy domestic stocks and bonds with yuan raised overseas and to enable Chinese businesses to use yuan for overseas investment. Most recently, Shanghai officials said they are planning to launch a program to allow foreign fund managers to raise yuan funds on the mainland for overseas investment.

In addition, yuan-denominated cross-border trade transactions, which started with a limited pilot program in 2009 and have since been expanded nationwide, now account for about 10% of China's total trade.

中国考虑建立中资企业离岸人民币贷款机制

据知情人士透露，为推动人民币国际化进程，中国正考虑增强中资企业为满足在中国大陆的资金需要而在境外举借人民币资金的能力，以便扩大跨境资本流动。

中国政府去年末开始允许大陆非金融企业在香港发行人民币计价债券。在过去两年间，香港已经成为人民币国际化的试验场。但到目前为止，中资企业直接从境外银行借入人民币并使人民币回流大陆的能力都是有限的。

知情人士称，目前，中国央行等政府机构正考虑建立一项配额机制，通过该机制，得到批准的大陆企业将能够从海外借入人民币贷款并将资金汇回大陆。中国央行未回复记者的置评请求。

中国对资金流动以及人民币实行严格管控。中国央行行长助理李东荣在1月份对中资进出口企业发表演讲时称，央行将推动实现人民币跨境流动的良性循环，进一步拓宽人民币跨境流动渠道。

在此之前，中国国家发展和改革委员会（简称：发改委）曾在去年末一次性批准中国广东核电集团(China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group)借用中国银行（香港）有限公司(Bank of China (Hong Kong)Limited, 简称：中银香港)人民币30亿元（约合4.76亿美元）的商业贷款。

还有诸多问题需要解决。其中之一就是，中国监管部门究竟应该允许海外所筹人民币资金以长期外债还是短期外债的形式汇回中国大陆。由于对短期投机性资本流入心存戒备，中国监管部门一直限制将人民币以长期外债的方式打回。一些市场人士呼吁将更多汇回的人民币资金划归为短期债务，从而给企业更大的灵活性。

苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank Of Scotland)驻新加坡的分析师Woon Khien Chia认为，如果进行这样的调整，就意味着中国监管部门承认离岸人民币借款并不蕴含与其他外币债务同等水平的风险。

知情人士称，监管层正考虑建立配额机制，因为他们还没有为放闸做好准备，主要是担心此举会耗尽离岸市场的人民币流动性。

最近几个月来，由于跨境人民币流动增多以及人民币升值预期减弱，离岸人民币市场一直在萎缩。最新的数据显示，香港银行系统2月份的人民币存款规模较前月下降1.7%，至人民币5,660亿元，为连续第三个月减少。

知情人士称，监管层之所以谨慎行事，还因为他们对资本流入可能给国内货币政策带来的冲击感到担忧。

另一方面，中国正在慢慢放松对人民币汇率和跨境资金流动的管制，以便趁美元和欧元黯然失色之际，探索扩大人民币使用的途径。

分析师们称，增强中国企业的海外借款能力有助于中国向利率市场化迈进，因为离岸贷款的定价取决于市场供求。中国目前对存贷款利率实施管制。

汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)驻香港的策略师Becky Liu表示，在起步阶段采用有管理的配额制度应该会得到市场的积极评价，配额制度一方面能够推动利率市场化和资本帐户开放，同时在离岸人民币存款基础已经开始下滑的情况下，也有助于保持离岸市场的稳定。

中国从去年晚些时候开始采取了一系列新举措来减少人民币进出中国大陆的障碍，但人民币距离完全自由兑换还有很长一段路要走。

中国已经推出了试点项目，允许海外投资者用境外筹集的人民币资金购买国内的股票和债券，并允许中资企业使用人民币进行境外投资。最近，上海市的官员表示，他们打算推出一个项目，允许海外基金公司在中国大陆筹集人民币资金用于境外投资。另外，以人民币进行结算的跨境贸易已经占到中国贸易总量的10%左右。

Fushi Shakes Off Muddy Waters Report

Time was even rumor that short-seller Muddy Waters Research Inc. was preparing a report on a firm was enough to send a stock into a nosedive. Looks like now the market has to see the goods before making up its mind.

On Tuesday around noon in the U.S., Muddy Waters posted a report on how frauds at Chinese firms come together, mentioning Nasdaq-traded Fushi Copperweld Inc. Although Fushi Copperweld had a rocky day of trading, it closed Tuesday at $6.10, up from $5.79 Monday. It closed at an even better $6.22 Wednesday.

(The posting followed a 11% drop in Fushi Copperweld’s shares on Monday. A Muddy Waters spokesman said he was unaware of the changes in share price.)

That’s a big change from June, when rumors swirled that Hong Kong-listed China Yurun Food Group Ltd. was subject to an imminent report from Muddy Waters, sending the stock down about 20%. No report appeared.

In a statement posted on its Web site Wednesday, Fushi Copperweld said it has reviewed the [Muddy Waters] report and categorically denies all of its claims, which are vague and non-specific, and were made in the absence of any discussion with the Company.

In an email to The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Block said that while Muddy Waters has done research on Fushi Copperweld, Tuesday’s report was not about the company.

We run a number of positions internally that we never publish on, and [Fushi Copperweld] was one such position,he said. Muddy Waters didn’t publish detailed research into Fushi Copperweld in the same way as it did for other companies, including Sino-Forest Corp., Duoyuan Global Water Inc., and China MediaExpress Inc. He said that the aim of the report was to bring attention to a report in the local Chinese media about how thoroughly planned frauds on U.S. investors can be.

浑水研究报告未损傅氏科普威股价

曾几何时，哪怕是做空机构浑水研究公司(Muddy Waters Research Inc.)正在针对某家公司撰写报告的传言，都足以引起一只股票的暴跌。现在，市场似乎要看到实际的东西才会决定要不要抛。

美国当地时间周二中午前后，浑水公司发布一篇报告，内容是中国企业怎样从事欺诈行为，其中提到了傅氏科普威公司(Fushi Copperweld Inc.)。虽然周二盘中傅氏股价起伏较大，但收盘价6.10美元高于周一的5.79美元。周三该股收于6.22美元，更上一层楼。

（浑水发布报告前，傅氏股价周一下跌11%。浑水公司一位发言人表示对该股价格变动不知情。）

这跟去年6月的情形相比大为不同。当时的传闻说，在香港上市的中国雨润食品集团有限公司(China Yurun Food Group Ltd.)是浑水公司即将发布的一篇报告的研究对象。这导致雨润股价下跌了20%左右。后来没有这样的报告出现。

傅氏科普威周三在其网站上发表声明说，它已看过浑水公司的报告，并完全否认浑水的指控；这些指控模糊、不具体，是在未与公司进行任何讨论的情况下进行的。

浑水创始人布洛克(Carson Block)在发给《华尔街日报》的电子邮件里说，虽然浑水公司曾经做过对傅氏科普威的研究，但周二报告不是针对该公司的。

他说，我们从来不对我们内部运营的一些头寸发布报告，傅氏科普威就是这类头寸之一。浑水没有像针对嘉汉林业(Sino-Forest Corp.)、多元环球水务(Duoyuan Global Water Inc.)和中国高速传媒(China MediaExpress Inc.)那样公布针对傅氏科普威的详细研究报告。布洛克说，周二报告的目的是让人注意中国媒体的一篇报道，报道内容是关于针对美国投资者的骗局可以达到多么彻底的程度。

Buffett Feasts On Goldman Scraps

If there is one skill Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) traders pride themselves on, it is the art of buying low and selling high.

But last year, anticipating new regulatory restrictions on proprietary trading and seeking to reduce the bank's exposure to risky assets, Goldman loan traders unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars of leveraged loans at a loss, people familiar with the matter say. Making matters worse, many of those loans have since jumped in value.

Details of one trade in particular have recently caused a stir in the market. In November, Goldman sold about $85 million of loans in troubled newspaper publisher Lee Enterprises Inc. Goldman sold the debt at about 65 cents on the dollar, having bought it months before at around 80 cents, resulting in a loss of at least $13 million.

The buyer: a unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB), according to several people familiar with the matter.

Buffett has since made a tidy paper profit on the loans, which are now worth about 82 cents on the dollar, the people said.

A Goldman spokesman declined to comment on the loan sales. Buffett didn't return requests for comment.

The sale of loans came amid discussions of new regulations that Goldman officials worried might restrict its ability to own and trade loans, and concerns within the firm that financial markets could take a turn for the worse after a promising start to the year. Goldman, as well, was conducting a broad consolidation of its credit-trading desks as it focused more on facilitating trades between customers.

Goldman decided in the spring of 2011 to vastly reduce the amount of loans held by its biggest loan-trading desk, called the global bank-loan trading and distressed-debt investing unit, which had a portfolio of more than $4 billion. The desk sold heavily through the summer, just as U.S. and European markets were collapsing. In October, that desk was merged with another desk, whose traders continued to sell, creating additional losses.

At the end of October, Goldman combined the loan-trading desk with a trading desk that specialized in bonds. The difference between the two was large. The loan desk was a private desk with access to confidential information about the borrowers of the loans it held, a crucial advantage in proprietary trading. The bond desk only had access to public information.

Traders on the enlarged public desk jettisoned many of the loans they inherited because they didn't want to risk losses on positions they weren't familiar with, the people said. That included the Lee Enterprises loans, they said.

In November, Goldman received a call from a loan trader at Citigroup Inc., who said an unidentified client was interested in buying Lee Enterprises loans, the people said.

Goldman had been working with other Lee creditors, including Monarch Alternative Capital LP and Mudrick Capital Management LP, on a bankruptcy plan for the struggling publisher that was on the verge of coming together. Nevertheless, Goldman traders agreed to sell the Lee loan.

At the time, the bank didn't know the buyer was Buffett, who also had made more than $1.5 billion on an investment he made in Goldman during the financial crisis. While the trade was agreed in November, it wasn't until March that Buffett's identity leaked out.

Through BH Finance LLC, Buffett has been buying more Lee loans, snapping up $5 million worth last week, said a person familiar with the situation. This time he paid 81.5 cents on the dollar, 25% more than he paid Goldman.

高盛亏本甩卖贷款资产 巴菲特接盘

如果说高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的交易员有一条技能可引以为傲，那就是低买高抛的艺术。

但据知情人士说，由于预见到政府将新出台限制自营交易的监管措施，并且为了降低高盛的高风险资产敞口，高盛的贷款交易员去年亏本抛掉了数亿美元的杠杆贷款。更糟糕的是，很多被抛贷款后来都大幅升值。

其中一笔交易的细节最近在市场上引起了轰动。去年11月，高盛出售了困难重重的报纸出版机构Lee Enterprises Inc.欠它的8,500万美元贷款，售价为账面价值的65%。而几个月前它是以相当于账面价值80%的铅钱买入这笔贷款的，所以至少亏了1,300万美元。

多位知情人士说，买主是巴菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下公司伯克希尔•哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的一家子公司。

这些人士说，后来这批贷款在巴菲特手中实现了不少的账面利润。目前这笔贷款的价值相当于账面价值的82%。

高盛一位发言人拒绝评论这批贷款。巴菲特没有回复置评请求。

高盛卖出这批贷款时，政府正考虑出台一些新的监管措施，高盛管理层担心这些措施可能会限制它持有、买卖贷款的能力。当时高盛内部也担心金融市场继今年实现开门红之后，可能会朝着坏的方面发展。另外，为更加侧重于辅助客户之间的交易，高盛当时还在全面整合信贷交易部门。

高盛在2011年春季决定大幅减少其最大贷款交易部门所持贷款的数额。这个部门名叫全球银行贷款交易与不良债务投资部，它当时拥有40多亿美元的投资组合。这个部门整个夏季都在大规模抛售，而当时欧美市场刚好是在暴跌。去年10月份，该部门与另外一个部门合并，它的交易员在继续抛售，造成更多损失。

10月底，高盛把这个贷款交易部门同一个专做债券的交易部门合并在一起。两者之间差异甚大。贷款交易部门是一个私人交易部门，可接触到所持贷款借款人的机密信息，这是自营交易的关键优势。而债券交易部门只能接触到公开信息。

知情人士说，扩大后的公开交易部门的交易员们抛掉了接管下来的很多贷款，因为他们对这些贷款不熟悉，不想冒亏损风险。知情人士说，这其中就包括Lee Enterprises所欠的那批贷款。

知情人士说，去年11月，高盛接到花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)一位贷款交易员打来的电话，说一位身份未明的客户有意购买Lee Enterprises的贷款。

高盛当时已经在跟Lee Enterprises的其他债主一道为这家在困境中挣扎的出版商制定一套破产方案。这些债主包括Monarch Alternative Capital LP和Mudrick Capital Management LP。但高盛还是同意卖掉Lee Enterprises的贷款。

当时高盛不知道买主是巴菲特。巴菲特还曾在金融危机期间投资高盛公司，斥资逾15亿美元。虽然这笔买卖是在2011年11月达成的，但直到今年3月份，巴菲特的身份才被泄露出来。

巴菲特后来又通过BH Finance LLC购买了Lee Enterprises公司的更多贷款，一位知情人士说，这包括上星期购入的一笔500万美元贷款。这次他付的价格是账面价值的81.5%，比付给高盛的价格高出25%。

Investors Smell Mud in The Water Fushi Tumbles

Does Muddy Waters Research LLC still have its old magic?

On Monday, Nasdaq-listed Fushi Copperweld Inc. dropped 11%, then bounced back on Tuesday. The moves came after short seller Muddy Waters posted a video report on its website dated Tuesday that included criticism of the company.

Muddy Waters -- most famous for its recommendation to sell Sino-Forest Corp. short -- was instrumental in turning investor sentiment against small Chinese stocks that had listed in the U.S. via reverse takeover, a method of going public that doesn't require the same level of disclosure as an initial public offering.

However, it most recent target until now, Focus Media Holding Ltd., managed to shake off much of the impact of the criticism, rebounding after an initial dip. It is now trading 7% down from when Muddy Waters issued its first report in November.

Muddy Waters on Tuesday said Fushi Copperweld presents 'a high risk of fraud.' In a video presentation that doesn't focus just on Fushi Copperweld, Muddy Waters founder and director of research Carson Block, described what he said is how fraud at Chinese companies works -- part one in a series Muddy Waters is calling 'Frauducation.' He cited a local media report as the basis for much of his presentation.

According to Mr. Block's voice over on the video, Muddy Waters 'previously looked at Fushi Copperweld Inc. internally because it's subject to a troubled go-private bid by its chairman.' The video showed images of what Mr. Block said were company facilities that appeared quiet, as well as what he said was discrepancies in the company's numbers and other issues.

Mr. Block's allegations couldn't be independently confirmed. As a short seller, Muddy Waters aims to make money when shares of a company decline. Muddy Waters didn't say whether it had a short position on Fushi Copperweld.

A media representative at Fushi Copperweld referred questions to investor relations personnel, who hadn't responded as of Wednesday afternoon. Mr. Block didn't respond to a request for comment.

Muddy Waters didn't publish detailed research into Fushi Copperweld in the same was as it did for others, including Sino-Forest, Duoyuan Global Water Inc., and China MediaExpress Inc.

Given Fushi Copperweld's chairman has declared his intent to take the company private at $9.50 a share, there could be a limit on how far Muddy Waters can drive the stock down. The chairman first floated his privatization plan back in November 2010 and it still hasn't happened.

But investors might be reluctant to bet against it happening after Harbin Electric finally managed to go private after a long, drawn-out battle with another short seller, Citron Research, which said it would never happen.

In some ways Tuesday's report resembles Muddy Water's open letter to the Spreadtrum Communications Inc. chairman in June. A collection of musings based on observations from public filings rather than an extensive, tire-kicking investigation, the letter still managed to send the stock down more than 30%. It's now trading about 25% higher than before Muddy Waters published its report.

做空机构“浑水”威力不再

浑水研究公司(Muddy Waters Research LLC)还有它原来的魔力吗？

纳斯达克上市公司傅氏科普威(Fushi Copperweld Inc.)周一下跌11%，周二实现反弹。在这些波动之前，做空机构浑水公司在其网站上发布标注日期为本周二的视频报告，其中包含了对傅氏的抨击。

浑水最闻名之举是推荐做空嘉汉林业(Sino-Forest Corp.)。在投资者对小型中国概念股改变看法的过程中，它的作用不可忽视。这些中国概念股是通过反向收购的办法在美国上市的，按这种方法上市，公司不必像通过首次公开募股(IPO)上市那样详尽地披露信息。

但在傅氏之前，浑水最近的攻击目标分众传媒(Focus Media Holding Ltd.)却在最初下跌之后反弹，很大程度上摆脱了抨击带来的影响。相比浑水去年11月发表第一篇报告之时，目前分众传媒股价下跌7%。

浑水周二说，傅氏科普威存在很高的“欺诈风险”。在一段不只关注傅氏的视频报告中，浑水创始人兼研究总监布洛克(Carson Block)描绘中国公司是怎样从事欺诈行为的。这是浑水公司所谓“诈骗教育”(Frauducation)系列的第一部分。报告中有很大一部分内容依据的是一篇中国媒体的报道。

根据布洛克在视频中的旁白，浑水公司先前从内部考察傅氏，是因为它的董事长想将其私有化遇到了麻烦。据布洛克说，视频中的一些画面是该公司显得静悄悄的厂房，还有一些影像是公司统计数字的矛盾之处，以及其他一些问题。

布洛克的说法无法独立印证。作为一家做空机构，浑水公司的宗旨是在某家公司股价下跌时赚钱。浑水公司未透露是否做空了傅氏科普威。

傅氏科普威一位公关代表把问题转给了投资者关系部的人员。截至周三下午，后者没有回应。布洛克没有回复置评请求。

浑水公司没有像针对其他公司一样公布它对傅氏科普威的详细研究。这里说的其他公司包括嘉汉林业、多元环球水务(Duoyuan Global Water Inc.)和中国高速频道(China MediaExpress Inc.)。

考虑到傅氏科普威董事长曾宣布他打算以每股9.50美元的价格将公司私有化，浑水公司要将其股价拉下来，其幅度可能会是有限的。傅氏董事长在2010年11月就提出了私有化计划，但到现在还没实施。

但投资者可能不愿打赌傅氏公司不会实施私有化方案。因为另一家做空机构香椽研究(Citron Research)曾表示哈尔滨泰富电气有限公司(Harbin Electric)永远不会私有化，但在与该机构展开旷日持久的争斗之后，哈尔滨泰富电气的私有化最终还是实现了。

在某些方面，周二的报告就像是浑水公司去年6月份写给展讯通信有限公司(Spreadtrum Communications Inc.)董事长的公开信。那封信是根据公开备案文件而非详尽实地调查得出一系列结论的，但它仍然造成该公司股价下跌30%有余。目前该公司股价较浑水公司发布报告之前高出25%。

Stock（股票）

Can The Stock Market Soar With Icarus Wings?

The market we’re immersed in is firmly based on reality. Last week capped six months of strengthening, broad based economic activity. You name it: industrial production, retail sales, rising employment and a rejuvenated Detroit.

I’m revising upward my numbers on new car sales from 14 million to 15 million. Based on now low historic scrappage rates, I see the industry taking out old highs of over 17 million units by 2013.

The S&P 500 Index broke through 1,400 during November of 2006, which we dwell a shade under now. Annual trading volume was enormous then, pushing close to 400 billion shares on the Big Board. Today our run rate is under 200 billion shares. The public is gone. Corporate pension funds remain underinvested in equities. Both classes of investors presently hold too much capital in bonds, and cash reserves are woefully high.

This makes no sense to me. Ben Bernanke even admitted publicly that the FRB with its easy money policy has disenfranchised savers, the country’s broad-based middle class. Nominal money market rates and a Treasuries yield curve that flaunts no sex appeal whatsoever did the trick.

When’s the last time friends piped up about their scores on the Big Board? Maybe, I’m too old and oldsters mumble about aches and pains, as well as municipal bond ladders.

Gone are the days of the Internet bubble when website purveyors sold at 25 times revenues and cellular properties sold on “pops,” their geographic reach covering prospective subscribers.

Retirees should be educating themselves on high yield bonds and big capitalization stocks with dividend yields competitive with 10-year Treasuries at 2.3 percent. Apple just joined this list that embraces IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Pfizer, Merck and many more.

The market’s peak at 1,576 was recorded near yearend, 2007. It took another 6 months for the rotten core of bank loans to surface. This global insanity of mortgage backed securities packaging was to schmeiss the averages in half and MBS litigation could last another 5 years.

Seldom remarked is that the 2006–2007 stock market was grossly overvalued before the MBS blow up. Price-earnings ratios dwelt in the mid-teens. More critical, was that operating profit margins for corporate America had reached unprecedentedly high ground. Not the metrics we have today. Operating profit margins are high but nowhere near their 2006 peak.

Corporate balance sheets rest impeccably sound. Actually, there’s not enough financial engineering taking place. We need to see more deal activity, share buybacks and dividend bump-ups. It’s coming along with increasing capital spending, still mysteriously depressed. Seems like corporate America is wait ‘n’ see on which way political winds blow. My take is Obama wins, but is no longer a captive of the party’s left leaning economists.

Lemme go back to “the old people.” Before retirement, estate managers speak is step off your motorcycle even if it’s a BMW. Bang out ragamuffin stocks that you held too long for all the wrong reasons, and then get serious about muni paper, Treasuries, even investment grade corporates.

At the risk of a vigilante committee of chartered financial analysts riding out to get me, I’ll shout out that fixed income conservatism today is a fool’s game, except for high yield paper and emerging market debt (a snake pit.) Investment grade bond yields, below 3 percent for maturities under 10 years, are potentially confiscatory. Historically, there is no precedent over postwar decades for comparably low yields. Stay away.

Those of us in their sunset years need to act counterintuitively and buy growth stocks with yields of 2 percent or better. Flex your muscles. Analytically, you want to own broad based properties selling at low multiples of free cash flow. Such companies have the capacity to increase dividends, buy back 10 to 20 percent of their outstanding stock and make cash deals. Stay away from non-growers yielding 5% like AT&T and Verizon. Widows, listen up!

There is a school of investment theory that believes the public, specifically baby boomers now entering retirement, turn into net sellers of stocks for decades to come. These academics blithely project massive forced selling drives down valuation to 9 times earnings. This is looney tunes.

If you believe it, you’ve wasted time reading my piece this week. Keep your capital in a money market fund yielding next to zero. Eventually, you will be right. When I look at LIBOR yields going back 20 years, I’d draw a trendline through 4.5 percent, maybe a 2016 event.

Meanwhile, the stock market’s rise from its spring ’09 bottom traces north of 100 percent. I expected Apple to appreciate 1.5 percent monthly based on rising earnings and its low valuation. Instead, Apple fluctuates 3 percent daily and elevated 50 percent since yearend. The market’s rise from 1,100 to 1,400 these past 6 months followed rather than lead the fundamental turn in business conditions for the country.

Because of the enormous amount of rebalancing within the S&P 500 Index last year, 25 percent of total stocks, remaining properties actually are equivalent to their market value at the 2007 peak. Many financials are much lower, but so what? Maybe, they’re next year’s story.

All these variances are reflected in the comparative performance of the indices. Year to date, the S&P 500 Index is competitive with the Russell 2000 Index of small and mid-cap stocks, doing almost as well as the emerging markets index, FTSE. Growth stocks handily outperform value properties by some 400 basis points.

Such wide variance between growth and value properties is probably the pivotal investment dynamic for 2012. Many growth stocks still are too cheap compared with iconic industrials like Caterpillar and United Technologies. Apple, after all its pyrotechnics, sells at 12 times forward 12 months’ earning power. Caterpillar goes for 15 times earnings.

The energy sector, a 12 percent weighting in the S&P 500 Index, I see 5 to 10 percent lower by yearend. Too much supply coming on stream next couple of years. So far I’m right on this call, a bullish indicator for consumer spending.

Deep basic, there’ll be wide disparities among sector components of the S&P 500 Index. Don’t focus on whether the market forges into new high ground. Icarus is safe for now. Operating margin leverage and topline growth are pivotal metrics for stocks. Bernanke’s pronouncement of no new stimulus coming was overdue and should be construed as an endorsement of near trendline growth for GDP with no inflationary biases.

The straight arithmetic Value Line Index easily surpassed its 2007 high as early as 2010 and rests 20 percent higher today. NASDAQ is nowhere near overbought. Better quality banks like JPMorgan Chase have rallied back near old 2008 highs, but way short of overvaluation. I’m hanging on, overweighted in financials, a 10 percent sector component of the S&P 500 Index, but the ride is a roller coaster.

The worst case I can muster for the S&P 500 Index is a long consolidation based on some weakness in the energy and financials sectors, nearly 25 percent of the index. Interest rates could work modestly higher so you stand to lose money on Treasuries and investment grade corporates.

The only way Icarus falls to earth is cutbacks in federal spending and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts become reality early next year. Fiscal contraction of 1.5 percent is likely, but not the 4 percent plus that exists on paper.

Technicians see the market now as overbought, but the breadth volume on the Big Board forges into new high ground.

Take your pick.

Martin T. Sosnoff is chairman and founder of Atalanta Sosnoff Capital, LLC, a private investment management company with $8 billion in assets under management. Sosnoff has published two books about his experiences on Wall Street, Humble on Wall Street and Silent Investor, Silent Loser. He was a columnist for many years at Forbes Magazine and for three years at The New York Post. Sosnoff owns personally and / or Atalanta Sosnoff Capital owns for clients the following investments cited in this commentary: IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Pfizer, Apple, Caterpillar, United Technology and JPMorgan Chase.

美股现见顶之迹

我们沉迷其中的股市正稳固立足于现实基础之上。股市历时达六个月的上涨行情在上周已出现见顶态势，而更广范围的经济活动也同样如此。所有数据都是如此：工业生产、零售销售、就业增长以及恢复活力的美国汽车产业。

我目前把美国2012年新车销量预期从1,400万辆上调至1,500万辆。根据目前旧车报废率处于历史低位，我预计到2013年，美国汽车行业将突破以前曾创下的1,700多万辆的最高新车年销量。

标普500指数在2006年11月期间曾突破1,400，而我们现在离这个关口也就一步之遥。那时美国股市的全年交易量非常巨大，纽约证券交易所全年交易量接近4,000亿股。如今，按照我们目前情况预测的2012年全年交易量不足2,000亿股。普通投资者已弃股市而去，而各家企业的养老基金目前仍然没有充分投资于股票。目前，这两类投资者把太多资金投放在债券上，而且现金储备高得离谱。

在我看来，这根本就不明智。伯南克甚至公开承认，美联储借助宽松的货币政策，剥夺了美国广大中产阶层——储蓄者的权利。货币市场名义利率以及毫无吸引力的美国国债收益率曲线就是压榨储蓄者的手段。

可曾记得上一次朋友们竞相炫耀各自在股市上斩获颇丰是什么时候？或许，我年事已高，而老人往往会对全身各种疼痛唠叨个没完，对市政债券的阶梯型组合（指投资于一系列利率不同、到期时间也不同的债券，而债券到期之后再投资于新债券）也是如此。

互联网泡沫时代已一去不复返了，那时互联网公司的股价高达每股营收的25倍，而无线通信公司的股价则按照“潜在用户数”（也即涵盖潜在用户的地理范围）而定。

退休者应通过自学了解有关高收益债券以及那些股息收益率与美国10年期国债2.3％的收益率相比具有竞争力的大市值股票。苹果刚刚加入这些大市值股票行列之中，这其中还包括IBM、微软、思科、辉瑞（Pfizer）、默克（Merck）及许多其他大市值股票。

标普500指数在2007年接近年底时曾创下历史最高位——1,576。6个月之后，银行贷款的核心业务极其糟糕的状况才浮出水面。全球对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）打包出售的这轮“疯潮”致使几大股指纷纷遭到腰斩，而有关MBS的诉讼可能还要持续5年之久。

然而，人们很少提到的是，在2006至2007年期间，也就是在MBS危机引爆之前，美国股市的估值水平早已严重过高了。那时股票市盈普遍高达15倍左右。更重要的是，当时美国企业的营运利润率已处于前所未有的高位，而不是我们如今所拥有的指标。目前美国企业的营运利润率尽管较高，但远不及他们在2006年时的巅峰水平。

企业资产负债表仍然健全得令人无可挑剔。事实上，企业并没有进行足够多的金融工程。我们需要看到美国企业进行更多的交易活动、股票回购及股息提高。同时应伴随发生的是企业部门的资本支出不断增加，而目前企业的资本支出仍不可思议地处于低迷状态。企业似乎正在观望美国的政治风向。我的看法是，奥巴马今年将在竞选中获胜连任总统，但他不会再迷恋于民主党左派经济学家。

让我回过头来谈谈“老人”问题。在退休前，财产经理人的言论会让你禁不住从摩托车上跨下来，即使那是辆宝马摩托车。抛售因各种错误理由而持有太久的那些表现糟糕的股票，然后认真考虑投资于市政债券、国债甚至投资级公司债券。

冒着由特许金融分析师组成的“金融市场治安委员会”全力出动来抓我的风险，我愿意大声疾呼，除了高收益债券及新兴市场债券（这可谓是一个恐怖而混乱的领域）之外，如今的固定收益投资保守主义就是一场“愚者的游戏”。投资级债券10年期以下的债券收益率低于3％，而且有可能被“充公”。从历史上看，如此低的收益率在美国战后几十年里从未曾有过。请远离这些低收益债券。

我们这些处于晚年的老人需要逆直觉而行事，购买股息率达2％或以上的成长型股票。从分析角度来说，积聚你的财力。你应持有范围广泛的股票，其股价与每股自由现金流的比值应较低。这些公司有能力提高股息，回购10％至20％的流通股票，并用现金进行并购交易。远离诸如AT&T及威瑞森（Verizon）等那些股息率达5％但并非成长型的股票。寡妇们，听好了！

有一学派的投资理论认为，普通投资者——尤其是现在步入退休年龄的婴儿潮一代，将在未来数十年里成为股票的净卖家。这些学者轻率地做出预测，认为这些投资者大规模被迫抛售将使得股票估值下滑至市盈率9倍的水平。他们这是彻底疯了。

如果你相信这种看法的话，那么你阅读这篇文章无异于浪费时间。把你的资金放在收益率几近为零的货币市场基金中好了。最终你总会撞到大运而有正确的时候。当我查看过去20年伦敦银行同业拆息（LIBOR）收益率时，我画出一条趋势线，指向4.5％，这或许会在2016年发生。

与此同时，标普500指数自2009年春触底以来已上涨了100％。根据苹果公司盈利不断增长以及目前估值偏低的情况，我曾预计苹果股票平均每月涨幅可达1.5％。然而，苹果股价每天上下波动的幅度就达3％，而且自去年底以来已上涨了50％。在过去六个月里，标普500指数从1,100上涨到近1,400，这是在美国企业的经营状况有根本好转之后（而不是之前）出现的。

由于标普500指数在去年进行了大规模调整，其中有25％的成分股做了调整，其余没有调整的股票目前实际上已相当于标普500指数在2007年创下峰值时各自的市场估值。而许多金融股的股价要比各自在2007年市场处于峰值时低得多，但这又怎样呢？或许金融股会成为明年的投资热点。

所有这些差异都反映在美国几大股指的相对表现之上。今年以来，标普500指数相比罗素2000中小市值股票指数较有竞争力，而且与新兴市场指数、英国富时指数的表现几乎一样出色。成长型股票的表现轻而易举地比价值型股票高出约400个基点。

成长型股票与价值型股票之间如此巨大的表现差异很可能是2012年关键的投资动向。与诸如卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）及美国联合技术公司（United Technologies）等标志性工业股相比，许多成长型股票目前仍然太过便宜了。苹果在最近这波出色表现之后，其股价仍然只是其未来12个月预期每股盈利的12倍。而相比之下，卡特彼勒的市盈率为15倍。

至于在标普500指数中占据12％权重的能源板块，我预计到今年底该板块股票价格将相比目前跌去5％至10％。在未来几年内将有太多的能源供应进入市场。到目前为止，我这个看法颇为正确，而这对于消费者支出而言可谓是利好信号。

从较深的基础层面来看，标普500指数的各板块之间将会出现较大的表现差异。别太关注于市场是否会形成新的最高点位。伊卡洛斯（Icarus）目前还很安全。公司运营利润率及营收增长是股票的关键指标。伯南克宣布未来不会推出新刺激措施的声明早该公布了，而且应被理解为美联储对美国GDP未来增长在剔除通胀因素后将接近长期趋势线的认可。

直接采取算数平均计算而得的价值线综合平均指数（Value Line Index）早在2010年就轻易地超过了其2007年的最高位，如今又上涨了20％。纳斯达克远未进入超买状态。诸如摩根大通等较为优质的银行股已涨回到以前在2008年时创下的最高价位附近，但估值远未高估。我坚决持有，超配在标普500指数中占有10％权重的金融板块，但金融板块的股价走势如坐过山车般涨跌动荡较大。

我对标普500指数能够想到的最坏情况，是由于能源及金融板块有些疲弱而导致该指数进入一个时间较久的盘整期。这两个板块加在一起占该指数的权重达25％。利率可能会小幅走高，所以你将会在美国国债及投资级公司债上亏钱。

伊卡洛斯跌回地球的唯一途径是联邦开支削减及明年初布什减税政策到期失效成为现实。美国联邦财政开支很可能缩减1.5％，但不会像提案中那样缩减4％。

技术分析者认为目前股市已处于超买状态，但纽约证券交易所的股票交易量正不断刷新纪录。

你自己做出选择吧。

马丁·索斯洛夫（Martin T. Sosnoff）是亚特兰大索斯洛夫资本管理有限公司（Atalanta Sosnoff Capital）的创始人兼董事长，该私人投资管理公司管理着超过80亿美元的资产。索斯洛夫已出版两本有关自己华尔街从业经验的书：《华尔街上的谦逊》（Humble on Wall Street）、《沉默的投资者，无言的失败者》（Silent Investor, Silent Loser）。他多年担任《福布斯》杂志专栏作家，并担任《纽约邮报》（New York Post）专栏作家三年。文中提到的索斯洛夫个人拥有、或其公司为客户持有的股票有：IBM、微软、思科、辉瑞、苹果、卡特彼勒、联合技术及摩根大通。

Google Q1 Revs In Line; EPS Edges Street; Sets Odd 2-For-1 Split; Shr Rise

Google this afternoon reported Q1 revenues ex traffic acquisition costs of $8.14 billion, right about in line with the Street consensus at $8.15 billoon. Non-GAAP profits of $10.08 a share were ahead of the Street at $9.65 a share.

Google sites revenues were up 24%; partner sites revenues rose 20%. Paid clicks rose 39% from a year ago and 7% from Q4. Cost per click as down 12% form a year ago and 6% from Q4.

The company also announced plans to issue a stock dividend of one share of a new class of non-voting stock that will trade on the NASDAQ – Class C shares – in what is effectively a two-for-one stock split. The old class A shares will still trade as GOOG, while the new Class C shares will get a new ticker not yet announced. Google, unable to do anything the normal way, is giving this a Googlesque twist by creating a new class of shares rather than simply doubling the number of existing shares outstanding.

The company did not give a distribution date for the stock dividend.

“Google had another great quarter with revenues up 24% year on year,” CEO Larry Page said in a statement “We also saw tremendous momentum from the big bets we’ve made in products like Android, Chrome and YouTube. We are still at the very early stages of what technology can do to improve people’s lives and we have enormous opportunities ahead. It is a very exciting time to be at Google.”

As for the split, the company said that the structure is “designed to preserve the corporate structure that has allowed Google to remain focused on the long term.” Since the new shares will be non-voting, selling them will not reduce a shareholder’s voting interest in the company. Google notes that Chairman Eric Schmidt and co-founders Page and Sergey Brin will be subject to a “stapling” agreement that will require them to sell voting shares if they decide to sell any non-voting shares. Google said a special board committee has been working on a plan for creating a new class of stock since January 2011. The proposal is subject to holder approval – and given the Larry and Sergey’s voting control, it will certainly be approved.

In a long “founders letter” posted in conjunction with the earnings release, Page and co-founder Sergey Brin explained the odd approach to splitting the stock. In short it is designed to make sure they continue to control the company.

“ Throughout our evolution, from privately held start-up to large, publicly listed company, we have managed Google for the long term – enjoying tremendous success as a result, especially since our IPO in 2004,” they wrote. “Sergey and I hoped, though we did not expect, that Google would have such significant impact, and this progress has made us even more impatient to do important things that matter in the world. Our enduring love for Google comes from a strong desire to create technology products that enrich millions of people’s lives in deep and meaningful ways. To fulfill these dreams, we need to ensure that Google remains a successful, growing business that can generate significant returns for everyone involved.”

The letter lays out there case for taking such an unusual approach to splitting the shares:

“Today we announced plans to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, which will be listed on NASDAQ,” Page and Brin wrote. “These shares will be distributed via a stock dividend to all existing stockholders: the owner of each existing share will receive one new share of the non-voting stock, giving investors twice the number of shares they had before. It’s effectively a two-for-one stock split – something many of our investors have long asked us for. These non-voting shares will be available for corporate uses, like equity-based employee compensation, that might otherwise dilute our governance structure.

We recognize that some people, particularly those who opposed this structure at the start, won’t support this change – and we understand that other companies have been very successful with more traditional governance models. But after careful consideration with our board of directors, we have decided that maintaining this founder-led approach is in the best interests of Google, our shareholders and our users. Having the flexibility to use stock without diluting our structure will help ensure we are set up for success for decades to come.

In November 2009, Sergey and I published plans to sell a modest percentage of our overall stock, ending in 2015. We are currently halfway through those plans and we don’t expect any changes to that, certainly not as the result of this new potential class. We both remain very much committed to Google for the long term.

It’s important to bear in mind that this proposal will only have an effect on governance over the very long term. In fact, there’s no particular urgency to make these changes now – we don’t have an unusually big acquisition planned, in case you were wondering. It’s just that since we know what we want to do, there’s no reason to delay the decision. Also note that there will be no immediate change in votes, because everyone will still have the same number. In addition, Eric, Sergey and I have all agreed to “stapling” arrangements so that, above set thresholds, if our economic interest in Google were to decline, our votes would as well. We also have provisions to ensure all shareholders are treated fairly from an economic perspective.”

With the post-earnings call still ahead, GOOG in late trading is up $5.44, or 0.8%, to $656.45.

Update: Here are some key tidbits from the release and the post-report call:

The company ended the quarter with $49.3 billion in cash.

Headcount at quarter end as 33,077, up from 32,467 at the end of December.

Non-GAAP operating margin was 37%, down from 38% a year ago.

CEO Larry Page focused first on performance. He says they had a very strong quarter. He says he has pushed hard to increase the company’s velocity. But that they still have the passion and soul of a startup.

Page says they have focused on having a simpler, more intuitive experience on the site.

Page says he just passed 2 million followers on Google+.

He says over 170 million people are on Google+.

Chrome has over 200 million users.

Display has over $5 billion in annualized run rate revenue.

Android activations are over 850,000 a day.

On the split, Page says that throughout the company’s evolution they have managed the company for the long term.

He says day-to-day dilution from employee stock options and acquisition will dilute the original structure of the company over the long term, which is a key reason why they created a new class of stock.

The new non-voting shares can be used for equity incentives and other purposes.

Page they do not have a particularly big acquisition planned. (They said the same thing in the letter.)

Drummond also discussed the split in more detail. The new stock will be like the Class A and Class B shares, but with no voting stock. Holders will now own there original shares, plus a share of the new Class C shares. Drummond emphasized that every holder will retain the same voting interest prior to the dividend.

CFO Patrick Pichette noted that revenue was up 1% sequentially. He noted that there was strength in most geographies andn verticals.

Pichette noted that the business is healthy; that shifts in paid clicks and CPC separately do not reflect the business, he says. He says there are a complex set of factors affecting CPC and click trends, including mobile, and FX. He notes that the dynamics around CPC and paid clicks are very complex, so trying to pick out single factors “doesn’t make sense.” He says lower CPCs offer opportunity for advertisers to get better return on their paid clicks.

Pichette says the company considers its cash position is a strategic asset that has “a ton of value.” (In other word, no cash dividend announcement today.)

After the call, GOOG is up $2.46, or 0.4%, to $653.47.

谷歌宣布拆股，旨在保住创始人大权

谷歌公司（Google）周四发布了第一季度财报。不计流量获得成本，谷歌第一季度的营业收入为81.4亿美元，与华尔街的预期（81.5亿美元）大体相同。按照非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP），每股收益10.08美元，高于华尔街的预期（9.65美元）。

当季谷歌站点营收同比增长24%；合作网站营收同比增长20%；付费点击同比增长39%，环比增长7%。每点击成本（CPC）同比下降12% ，环比下降6%。

此外，这家公司宣布将发行一种不含投票权，即将在纳斯达克股市交易的新型股票（C类股），以此种形式向现有股东派发股息——这实际是以2:1的比例进行拆股。现有的A类股将依然交易（股票代码：GOOG），而新发行的C类股将拥有一个尚未发布的新代码。从不循规蹈矩的谷歌公司这次也极具谷歌特色地创造出一种新型股票，而不是简单地把流通股的数量翻一番。

该公司没有公布这次“派息”的实施日期。

“谷歌公司又经历了一个伟大的季度，营收同比增长24%，”CEO拉里·佩奇（Larry Page） 在一份声明中说。“在我们做出巨大投入之后，Android、Chrome和YouTube等产品也出现了强劲的增势。在技术改善人类生活的潜能方面，我们依然处于非常初期的阶段，但前景非常广阔。身处谷歌公司是一件非常令人激动的事情。”

该公司对分拆股票进行了解释：设计这种股权结构“旨在维系使得谷歌公司专注于长期发展的公司治理结构。”鉴于新股不含投票权，售出新股将不会减少股东在公司的投票权益。谷歌公司指出，董事长埃里克·施密特（Eric Schmidt）、联合创始人佩奇和谢尔盖·布林（Sergey Brin）将受到一份“U字钉（stapling）”协议的约束——如果他们决定出售不含投票权的股票，他们就必须同时售出含投票权的股票。谷歌表示，一个由公司董事组成的特别委员会自2011年1月份以来，一直在酝酿创造一种新型股票。这项提议还需经过股东批准——鉴于两位创始人拥有的表决控制权，这项提议肯定会被批准。

在一份长长的“创始人信函”（连同收益报告一起发布），拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林对这种奇异的拆股方式做了一番解释。简言之，其目的在于确保他们两人持续掌控谷歌公司。

“在谷歌公司从最初一家私人持有企业到一家大型上市公司的演变历程中，我们自始至终从长远考虑，管理公司的各种事务——进而取得了巨大的成功，特别是自2004年上市以来，”他们写道。“谢尔盖和我希望，但我们当初的确没料到，谷歌将产生如此巨大的影响。这种进步使得我们更加迫不及待地想做对世界意义重大的事情。我们对谷歌恒久不变的热爱源自一种强烈的欲望，即创造出能够以深刻且有意义的方式丰富数百万人生活的技术产品。为了实现这些梦想，我们需要确保谷歌依然是一家业绩不断增长的成功企业，一家能够为所有与谷歌有关的人带来巨额回报的企业。”

这封信列举了采用这种别出心裁的拆股方式的理由：

“今天，我们宣布计划创造一种新型无投票权股票，它将在纳斯达克证券市场挂牌交易，”佩奇和布林写道。“这些股票将以股息的形式派发给全部现有股东：每持有1股的股东将获得1股不含投票权的股票，投资者持有的股票数量由此将增加一倍。这实际是以2:1的比例进行拆股——也是公司投资者多年来的诉求。这些不含投票权的股票可用于企业用途（比如采用股票形式发放的员工薪酬），由于不含投票权，这样做不会稀释公司治理结构。”

我们承认有一些人，特别是从一开始就反对这一结构的那些人，不会支持这一变化——我们也知道采用更传统治理模式的其它公司取得了非常巨大的成功。但公司董事经过悉心斟酌之后达成共识：维持这种以创始人为主导的公司治理模式，符合谷歌、公司股东和用户的最佳利益。在不稀释治理结构的前提下保持使用股票的灵活性，有助于我们为未来数十年的成功奠定良好的基础。

2009年11月份，谢尔盖和我宣布出售我们持有的全部股票的适当部分，出售日期截止2015年。这些计划现在已执行了一半，而且不会出现任何变化，我们当然不会因为这种新型股票的发行而改变售股计划。我们两人依然全心全意地致力于谷歌公司的长远发展。

需要铭记的是，这项提议只会在非常长的时期内对公司治理结构产生影响。实际上，现在并没有什么特别紧迫的事情促使我们做出这些改变——为了避免大家生疑，我们特此声明我们并没有特别庞大的收购计划。这样做是因为我们知道我们想做什么，而且没有理由推迟决定，仅此而已。还需要指出的是，投票权不会即刻产生变化，因为每个人拥有的股票数量依然是相同的。此外，埃里克、谢尔盖和我都同意签署“U字钉”协议：如果我们在谷歌的经济利益出现下降，我们的投票权也将随之下降。我们还制定了条款来确保所有股东的经济前景将受到公平对待。

更新：以下是一些源自谷歌季报和业绩电话会议的关键信息点：

截至2012年3月31日，谷歌拥有493亿美元的现金。

截至2012年3月31日，谷歌共有33,077名员工，较去年12月末的32,467名有所增加。

按照非公认会计准则计算，谷歌公司的运营利润率为37%，较一年前的38%略有下降。

CEO拉里·佩奇首先关注的是业绩表现。他说谷歌经历了一个增势强劲的季度。他表示，他一直在竭力提升公司的运行速度，但他们依然具有一家初创企业的激情和灵魂。

佩奇说他们注重用户在谷歌网站获得更简单，更直观的体验。

佩奇说他在Google+的追随者刚刚超过200万人。

他说Google+的用户现在已超过1.7亿人。

Chrome拥有两亿多用户。

Display广告网络按年折算的收入超过50亿美元。

Android设备每天被激活逾85万次。

在解释拆股计划时，佩奇表示，在公司的演变历程中，他们自始至终从长远考虑，管理公司的各种事务。

他表示，从长远来看，源自员工股票期权和收购的日常性摊薄，将稀释公司原有治理结构，这是他们创造一种新型股票的重要原因之一。

新发行的不含投票权股票可以应用于股权激励和其他用途。

佩奇表示，谷歌目前并无特别庞大的收购计划（他在信中也做出了这样的表示）。

谷歌高级副总裁兼首席法律顾问大卫·多姆德(David Drummond)也更为详尽地解释了此次拆股计划的细节。新股将类似于A类股和B类股，但没有投票权。股东现在将持有原有的股票和新发行的C类股。多姆德强调指出，每位股票持有人将保持与股息派发前相同的投票权益。

谷歌公司首席财务官帕特里克·皮切特（Patrick Pichette）指出，营收环比增长了1% 。他指出，谷歌公司在大多数地理区域及垂直市场的表现十分强劲。

皮切特指出，谷歌非常健康；付费点击和每点击成本分别出现的变化反映不出公司的状况，他说。影响每点击成本和点击趋势的因素非常复杂，包括移动终端和FX等等。他指出，围绕每点击成本和付费点击的动态变化非常复杂，因此试图挑出单一因素“没有任何意义。”他说，每点击成本下降为广告商提供了一个通过付费点击获得更好回报的机会。

皮切特表示，谷歌公司认为其现金头寸是一种拥有“巨大价值”的战略资产（换言之，今天不会宣布发放现金股息的计划）。

在电话会议结束后，谷歌股票上涨0.4%（2.46美元），上涨至653.47美元。

Thanks, China: Analysts Slaps $1000 Price Target on Apple Stock

Well, it was bound to happen eventually.

After a parade of ever-higher price targets for America's beloved gadget maker, Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets launched coverage of Apple this morning with a four-digit price target: $1,001.00. All of which raises the question again: Has Apple fever gotten ahead of itself?

As it turns out, 'Apple fever,' fed in part by the company's prospects in China, is precisely the notion that White, formerly of Ticonderoga Securities, uses to justify his bullish claim.

White writes in breathless tones this morning that Apple's 'unmatched aesthetics' and a brand that 'is able to touch the soul of consumers of all backgrounds' means that 'Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world.' Oh yes, and lest you raise a skeptical eyebrow, he adds: 'We see no end in sight to this trend' (emphasis ours).

Yes, there's a valuation argument to be made here, with White pegging Apple's price-to-forward earnings (ex-cash) at under 10 times. And yes, the dividend and buyback Apple launched last month is going to draw in a whole wave of new investors.

But White isn't vaulting over all the other analysts by calling Apple a value play. No sir, he's got a few other fresh new markets to be Apple-feverish about.

*The Internet: Apple is going to own the mobile Internet, thanks to its big splashy move to 4G

*China China China: If you think the mobile Internet is going to be fantastic, wait till you see the mobile Internet in China, where 1.4 billion people fiddling with mobile devices will make it 'a wonder of the tech world.' Well, Apple is there too and 'well positioned to capitalize on this trend.'

* Your living room: Yes, Apple will own your living room too. How? With 'full blown TV,' Mr. White says.

So, Wall Street analysts, what do you say? Do I have any higher bids on Apple $1,000?

苹果目标股价破1,000美元多亏中国

好吧，归根到底这是必然的事。

美国人心爱的电子产品制造商苹果公司的股票目标价位接连创下新高，随后美资券商Topeka Capital Markets的分析师怀特(Brian White)周二上午将苹果目标价调升至四位数，为1,001美元。所有这一切令我们再次提出这个问题：“苹果热”是否有些过头了？

事实证明，“苹果热”正是曾在提康德罗加证券(Ticonderoga Securities)供职的怀特看涨苹果股价的理由。苹果公司在中国的市场前景部分助推了“苹果热”。

周二上午，怀特用激动的语气写道，苹果公司“无与伦比的美学理念”以及一个“能触及各类消费者灵魂”的品牌意味着“苹果热”正像野火一样在全球燃烧。哦，是的，为了避免你对此提出疑义，他还补充说，我们认为这一趋势在可见的将来不会终结（他还记得特别强调“我们”）。

是的，眼下有关苹果股价的估值存在争论：怀特将苹果撇除现金的预期市盈率定在不到10倍的水平。同时，上个月派发股息且回购股票的苹果也将吸引一批全新的投资者。

但怀特说苹果是价值投资并非超越了所有其他分析师的看法。他还发现了另外一些将会掀起“苹果热”的新市场：

互联网：苹果将要占领移动互联网，这多亏了其进军4G的重大举措。

中国、中国，还是中国：如果你认为移动互联网战略不太实际，那么请先看一看中国的移动互联网市场再发表高见吧。14亿人摆弄着移动设备，这将成为科技界的一大奇观。苹果已经进入了这一市场，且充分准备好把握这一趋势。

你的客厅：是的，苹果也将占领你的客厅。如何占领？怀特说，凭借性能全面的电视机。

各位华尔街分析师，你们怎么看？有没有人给出比1,000美元更高的目标价？

Stocks, Commodities Nosedive On European Woes: Daily Markets Wrap

Global stocks retreated for a second straight day Wednesday over a disappointing Spanish debt auction and comments by the head of the euro zone's central bank that some Greek banks may collapse instead of being recapitalized.

Spain sold just €2.6 billion ($3.4 billion) of bonds, compared with a maximum target of €3.5 billion, and at yields that were well above previous auctions.

At a monthly conference held Wednesday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested that some Greek banks may lose their access to funding from the ECB during their recapitalization, raising renewed concerns about the outlook for Greece.

New data on business activity and retail sales in the euro zone confirmed earlier evidence that the region is in recession. A reading on U.S. private sector employment that was roughly in line with expectations failed to lift investors' sentiment, while a separate report showed service sector activities in March came in a touch below forecast.

Stocks.The benchmark S&P 500 index pulled back 14.45 points, to end at 1,398.93. SanDisk Corp. (Nasdaq: SNDK), the day's worst-performing stock, tanked more than 11 percent to close at $44.51 a share, after the company lowered its first-quarter outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 124.88 points, to 13,074.67. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 45.48 points, to 3,068.09. European and Asian markets also finished in the red.

Bonds. Investors fled to safety, pushing the 10-year Treasury yields down to 1.8 percent. The yields on Spanish and Italian bonds surged, with the yield on the five-year Spanish bond rising to a 12-week high.

Currencies. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro but lost ground against the Japanese yen. The ICE dollar index climbed to 79.75, the highest in more than two weeks. The Chilean peso, the Indian rupee and the Brazilian real declined.

Commodities. Prices sank across the board. Crude futures tumbled 2.3 percent to their lowest in seven weeks after a weekly government data showed a steep supply increase. Gasoline and heating oil also fell on the news. Gold for June delivery fell 3.5 percent, a 12-week low, to settle at $1,614.10 an ounce, while silver plunged 6.7 percent. Grains futures mostly fell.

欧洲灾难导致股市和大宗商品暴跌

周三，因为不如人意的西班牙国债拍卖和欧元区央行行长的希腊银行业将会崩溃而非再融资的言论，全球股市连续第二天下跌。

西班牙计划发售的35亿欧元国债只售出26亿（34亿美元），收益率也远高于以前。在周三的每月例会上，欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉称部分希腊银行可能在再融资期间丧失得到欧央行资金的资格，提高对希腊前景的忧虑。

新的欧元区商业活动和零售业数据印证了之前显示欧元区处于衰退中的证据。美国私营部门就业情况数据和预期基本一致，没能激发投资人的热情，而另一份报告显示三月服务业活跃情况略低于预报。

股市。指标性的标普500指数回落14.45点收于1398.93点。调低一季度盈利前景的闪迪（SanDisk）股票当天表现最差，下跌超过11%收于每股44.51美元。道琼斯工业指数下跌124.88点，收于13,074.67点。高技术板块纳斯达克指数下跌45.48点，收于3,068.09点。欧洲和亚洲股市也多数下跌。

债券。投资人逃向避险领域，把10年期美国国债收益率压倒1.8%。西班牙和意大利国债收益率激增，5年期西班牙国债升到12周一来的高点。

货币。美元对欧元升值，但对日元下跌。洲际交换指数升至79.75，这是两周多来的高位。智利比索，印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔都下跌。

大宗商品。大部下挫。政府周报数据显示原油供应量激增，原油期货下跌2.3%到7周来的地位。汽油和取暖用油也因此下跌。6月交割的黄金下跌3.5%到12周来的低位，每盎司1,614.10美元。银价也下跌了6.7%。谷物期货大部下跌。

New Europe Woes Hit Stocks

A wave of selling rolled through financial markets on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday, shattering a calm that has pervaded global markets for the past few months, as concerns flared anew about Europe's troubled economies.

Investors are growing increasingly skeptical about the ability of Spain and other heavily indebted nations to successfully implement mandated austerity measures. The worry: Deep spending cuts and increased taxes could send those economies into a downward spiral, making it even tougher to handle their debt loads.

'Now people are beginning to look at fundamentals and wondering, 'Can they achieve it?,' ' said David Tan, head of global rates at J.P. Morgan Asset management in London. 'People are looking at the math and saying, 'No, it doesn't add up.' '

Investors dumped Italian and Spanish bonds, sending prices down and yields to their highest levels this year. Italian stocks fell almost 5%, to their lowest since November, and Spanish stocks tumbled to their lowest close since March 2009.

Investors flocked to safe havens such as U.S. and German government bonds, pushing prices up and yields sharply lower. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell back below the closely watched 2% level, to 1.988%.

In the U.S., worries about Europe combined with recent signs of weakness in the economic recovery to knock the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 213.66 points, or 1.65%, to 12715.93, its biggest decline of the year. Tuesday's selloff pushed the Dow's losing streak to more than 4% over five days.

The declines come at a time when many investors were already beginning to doubt the durability of recent stock-market gains. Coming into this week, the Dow was up roughly 23% from lows hit in early October and up 7% in 2012.

Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at brokerage firm BTIG LLC, is among analysts who have been calling for U.S. stocks to pull back roughly 5% to 7%. They point to the disappointing U.S. economy, European worries and the possibility corporate earnings this quarter may be lackluster.

'Declines like that are totally normal' after such a major rally, Mr. Greenhaus said. And positive catalysts could always emerge to prop up the markets. In the U.S., the first-quarter corporate earnings season got off to a strong start Tuesday with reports from Alcoa Inc. and positive comments from glass-container maker Owens-Illinois Inc.

Some technical analysts point to signs they say point to further declines, at least in the U.S. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell below its so-called 50-day moving average, an indicator of market momentum, suggesting the index is losing steam.

Much of the rally in Europe has been attributed to European Central Bank stimulus that began in December. But that has largely worn off, and ECB President Mario Draghi indicated last week he isn't inclined to step back in.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of struggling. At the same time, some investors worry Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to wait for further signs of weakness before he would launch a third round of the stimulatory bond buying known as quantitative easing.

Tuesday's tumult raises the possibility the European debt crisis is beginning a difficult new chapter, one in which policy makers and the population are forced to face the scope of economic transformation necessary to cut governments' massive debt loads.

The drop in Europe came after a long Easter weekend. Tuesday was many investors' first chance to react to disappointing U.S. jobs data. As well, on Monday, Spain's government announced 10 billion of spending cuts in health and education.

In normal times, such a gesture of fiscal restraint might reassure bond markets. But increasingly, investors have grown concerned that measures like this in countries such as Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain may hurt their economies too much as they struggle with their debts.

Spanish 10-year government-bond yields climbed 0.21 percentage point to 5.95% as prices declined. Though that yield is still well away from the 7% level economists consider unsustainable, many traders predict the bond selloff could accelerate if yields pass the 6% level, as has happened in the past.

In a new sign the nervousness is spreading, Italian 10-year yields rose to 5.67%.

After the completion of a second bailout for Greece─where dockworkers began a two-day strike Tuesday to protest social-security changes and plans to deregulate shipping─the focus of the euro zone's three-year debt crisis has shifted to Spain and Italy.

The recent rise in borrowing costs is undoing the sharp drop since December, when the ECB began offering unlimited three-year loans to euro-zone banks.

The central bank has lent more than 1 trillion to banks under the program. Some European banks, in turn, used part of the money to buy European government bonds, helping bolster their prices and hold down governments' interest costs. For a time, it seemed there was a chance such a virtuous cycle would be able to slow the debt crisis.

But there is also the chance it could lead to a so-called negative feedback loop. Demand for the bonds appears to be waning; a Spanish debt auction last week was poorly received.

That in turn has hurt European banks. With massive amounts of their capital invested in government bonds, banks have become tethered to that market. Swings in prices for European sovereign debt now spark greater concerns about the solvency of the financial institutions.

Some European bank chiefs on Tuesday called on the ECB to revive its stimulus efforts. Alfredo Sáenz, chief executive of Spain's Banco Santander SA, the largest bank in the euro zone by market value, called for ECB purchases of government debt, something the central bank has been loath to do except in small quantities.

'The ECB has helped monetary expansion with its recent measures, but in my opinion, it should be more aggressive in the purchase of government and bank debt─that is, stronger European quantitative easing,' Mr. Sáenz said at a banking conference.

Such a move would reopen a rift on the ECB's governing board. Two of Germany's top officials at the central bank resigned over the issue last year, and German Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann has been a leading critic of ECB bond-buying. It would also be a quick policy U-turn after Mr. Draghi's comments last week.

Spanish policy makers attempted to shore up confidence in Spain at a series of public appearances. 'The agenda of reforms goes on, because we are convinced that with an economy based on austerity, reforms and equality Spain can emerge from its crisis,' Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said at a conference.

欧债危机担忧再起 国际金融市场重挫

随着投资者对欧洲困难经济体的担忧再度燃起，一股抛售浪潮周二席卷大西洋两岸金融市场，打破了过去几个月国际市场的平静。

投资者越来越怀疑西班牙和其他高负债国家能否有效实施强制紧缩措施。他们担心的是，大幅削减支出、增加税收可能会让这些经济体陷入下行螺旋，使其更难应对债务负担。

摩根大通资产管理(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻伦敦的全球利率部门负责人David Tan说，现在大家开始考察基本面，并考虑这些国家能不能实现目标；大家看着数字说，这事不太靠谱。

投资者抛售意大利和西班牙国债，导致价格下跌、收益率升至年初以来最高。意大利股市下挫近5%，跌至去年11月以来最低水平；西班牙股市跌至2009年3月以来最低收盘水平。

投资者纷纷买进美国和德国国债等避险资产，导致其价格上涨、收益率大幅下降。基准10年期美国国债的收益率降至1.988%，再次回落到受密切关注的2%关口下方。

在美国，投资者对欧洲的担忧加上近期经济复苏乏力的迹象，导致道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)下跌213.66点至12715.93点，跌幅1.65%。创下今年以来的最大跌幅。截至周二，道指连续五天下跌，总共跌去4%有余。

此时很多投资者已经开始怀疑近期股市涨势能不能维持下去。到本周开始，道指较去年10月上旬触及的低点上涨约23%，2012年以来上涨7%。

经纪公司BTIG LLC首席全球策略师格林豪斯(Dan Greenhaus)等分析师曾预计美股将回调5%到7%左右。他们的理由是美国经济不如人意、欧洲状况令人担忧，而本季度公司业绩可能也是平淡无奇。

格林豪斯说，在经历如此大幅反弹之后，这样的下跌完全是正常的。而利好因素完全有可能出现，给市场带来支撑。在美国，一季度财报发布期在周二以美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)的财报强劲开局，玻璃容器制造商Owens-Illinois Inc.也发表了乐观言论。

一些技术分析师说，迹象表明市场还会进一步下跌，至少在美国如此。标准普尔500种股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock)跌破50日“移动平均线”，意味着该指数正在失去动力。

过去欧洲股市的反弹很大程度上归因于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)始于去年12月的刺激措施。但刺激措施的效力基本已经消失，而欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上周也暗示他不愿出台新的刺激措施。

美国经济出现了一些艰难迹象。与此同时，部分投资者担心美联储(Federal Reserve)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)可能要等到更多疲软迹象出现，然后才推出第三轮量化宽松措施，也就是通过购买债券刺激经济。

周二的震荡让人看到欧债危机进入新的艰难阶段的可能性。在新阶段中，政策制定者和普通民众将不得不面对大规模的经济转型，这是削减政府庞大债务所必需的。

欧洲股市下跌是在刚刚过完复活节长周末之后。许多投资者一直到周二才有机会对令人失望的美国就业数据做出反应。另外，西班牙政府周一宣布，在医疗和教育方面削减100亿欧元支出。

一般情况下，这种紧缩财政的姿态可能会对债市起到一定的支撑。但是，投资者现在越来越担心，在希腊、葡萄牙、意大利和西班牙等国奋力解决债务问题之际，推出这类措施可能会严重损害其自身经济。

西班牙10年期国债价格下跌，收益率上升0.21个百分点，至5.95%。虽然这个收益率仍远低于7%这个经济学家认为不可持续的水平，但很多交易员预测，如果收益率突破6%，那么西班牙国债的抛盘可能会加速。这种情况以前发生过。

市场紧张情绪蔓延的一个新迹象是，意大利10年期国债收益率升至5.67%。

在完成对希腊的第二轮救助后，对欧元区已持续三年的债务危机的关注焦点转向了西班牙和意大利。周二，希腊的码头工人开始了为期两天的罢工活动，反对社保改革和解除航运监管计划。

借贷成本近来的上升扭转了去年12月以来大幅下降的势头，当时欧洲央行开始向欧元区银行提供无限制的三年期贷款。

欧洲央行已向该计划覆盖的银行提供了逾1万亿欧元的贷款。其中一些欧洲银行会用部分贷款购买欧洲政府债券，从而帮助支撑国债价格，压低政府的利息成本。这种良性循环曾一度被认为可以缓和欧债危机。

不过，此举也可能会形成一个所谓的“负面反馈回路”。对欧洲债券的需求似乎正在减弱，上周西班牙国债拍卖反响平平。

而这又影响到了欧洲银行。由于大举投资政府债券，这些银行已与债市成了一条船上的蚂蚱。现在，欧洲主权债务价格的波动更能让人对金融机构的偿付能力表示担心。

一些欧洲银行行长周二呼吁欧洲央行重新出台刺激计划。市值最大的欧元区银行西班牙国家银行(Banco Santander SA)的首席执行长萨恩斯(Alfredo S口enz)呼吁欧洲央行购买政府债务。欧洲央行一直不愿这么做，除非只是小规模的购买。

萨恩斯在一个银行业会议上说：欧洲央行最近的举措在一定程度上加速了货币扩张，但我认为，欧洲央行应该更加积极地购买政府和银行债务，也就是说，加大欧洲定量宽松的力度。

但此举会再度令欧洲央行理事会成员之间产生分歧。去年，两位德国高管就因此事从欧洲央行辞职，德国央行(German Bundesbank)行长魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)是欧洲央行购债行动的主要批评者。在欧洲央行行长德拉吉上周发表讲话后，该行政策也可能迅速出现180°大转弯。

西班牙决策者试图借一系列公开露面的机会提振投资者对西班牙的信心。西班牙财政大臣德金多斯(Luis de Guindos)在一次会议上说：西班牙会继续推进改革议程，因为我们深信，在紧缩、改革和公平的基础上，西班牙经济可以走出危机。

Stocks End Five-Day Skid

U.S. stocks bounced back Wednesday after a five-day slide, bolstered by a strong start to the corporate-earnings seasons and a drop in Spanish and Italian government borrowing rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 89.46 points, or 0.70%, to 12805.39, one day after the blue-chip index declined 1.7%, for its fifth straight decline and its biggest fall of the year. The Standard Poor's 500-stock index advanced 10.12 points, or 0.74%, to 1368.71, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 25.24 points, or 0.84%, to 3016.46.

Leading the gains on Wednesday were financial and consumer-discretionary stocks, two of Tuesday's hardest-hit sectors. Bank of America rose 3.8%, Boeing gained 1.7%, General Electric advanced 1.4%, and J.P. Morgan Chase picked up 2.4% on a day in which all 10 sectors of the S&P 500 were in positive territory.

Alcoa was the biggest advancer among Dow components, jumping 6.2% after a strong start to a new season of corporate earnings reports. The aluminum maker posted a surprise first-quarter adjusted profit of 10 cents a share, better-than-expected revenue growth and affirmed its forecast that global aluminum demand would increase 7% in 2012.

"We've had a great start to earnings season, and I expect a lot more of that to unfold because of what the economy is doing," said Michael Strauss, chief economist and chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Conn. "The economic numbers domestically should be the primary driver of our equity markets, and maybe after a 3% to 5% selloff, we're getting some re-focus on that."

In Europe, investors took some solace from remarks by Benoit Coeure, a member of the European Central Bank's executive board, who suggested that the central bank could turn to its bond-purchase program again to ease stress in Spain. Italy's 10-year bond yield fell to 5.541%, from 5.695% Tuesday, and Spain's 10-year bond yield dropped to 5.876% from 5.992%.

Separately, the region's bank stocks rallied after HSBC upgraded the sector to "overweight," saying the forces that had depressed earnings for the group are beginning to abate.

European stocks rose broadly. The German DAX index climbed 1% to end a four-day slide, and France's CAC-40 gained 0.6%.

"We have these investors that are so fearful of downside volatility, they're overreacting to anything that suggests we may have a repeat of what we saw last year," said Kristina Hooper, head of portfolio strategies at AllianzGlobal Investors, which manages $40 billion in U.S. retail assets.

Meanwhile, investors kept an eye on developments after an 8.6-magnitude earthquake hit off the westernmost province of Indonesia, triggering tsunami warnings in the region.

Asian bourses ended mostly lower in response to the U.S.'s losses on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped 0.8%, its seventh consecutive loss, to close at a two-month low. China's Shanghai Composite bucked the trend, erasing an intraday loss of as much as 1.1% to close up 0.1%.

Crude-oil prices pushed 1.7% higher to settle at $102.70 a barrel, while gold prices were roughly flat at $1,659 a troy ounce. The dollar fell against the euro but ticked up against the yen. Demand for Treasurys fell, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note soaring to 2.028%.

In economic news, the cost of goods imported into the U.S. in March posted its largest gain in nearly a year, as petroleum prices jumped. The U.S. federal budget deficit also came in at $198.2 billion, a touch higher than expectations.

The Federal Reserve's so-called "beige book" report on economic activity said the U.S. economy continued to expand at a modest-to-moderate pace through the end of March.

In corporate news, American depositary receipts of Finnish phone maker Nokia plunged 16% after it warned that competition, particularly in India, the Middle East, Africa and China, would hit its first-quarter performance.

Titan Machinery surged 17% after the maker of equipment for builders and farmers reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that were well above expectations and provided an upbeat outlook for 2012.

Opnet Technologies dropped 13% after the network-performance-management company indicated that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue would fall short of expectations.

Applied Micro Circuits gained 8.2% after the company lowered its outlook for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, citing weakness in the service-provider and wire-line markets and provided a forecast for per-share losses that was wider than current projections.

Owens-Illinois jumped 6.9% after the maker of glass containers indicated that its first-quarter results would come in above expectations, citing improved pricing trends and operational efficiencies.

Mattress Firm Holding soared 18% after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and provided an upbeat outlook for the current year.

美股反弹 结束连续五个交易日下跌局面

美国股市周三反弹，扭转连续五个交易日下滑的局面，主要因为业绩期开局良好，同时西班牙和意大利国债收益率下降也提振股市。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数涨89.46点，至12805.39点，涨幅0.70%；该指数前日下跌1.7%，创年内最大跌幅，同时也是连续第五个交易日下跌。标准普尔500指数涨10.12点，至1368.71点，涨幅0.74%。纳斯达克综合指数涨25.24点，至3016.46点，涨幅0.84%。

金融和非消费必需品类股领涨。美国银行(Bank of America)涨3.8%；波音公司(Boeing)涨1.7%；通用电气(General Electric)涨1.4%；摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)涨2.4%。标准普尔500指数10个分类指数均走高。

美国铝业(Alcoa)是涨幅最大的道指成分股，该股上涨6.2%，因其以强劲的收益表现拉开了收益季的序幕。该公司第一财政季度意外盈利，每股收益为10美分，且收入增长超出预期，并重申预计2012年全球铝需求将增长7%。

欧洲方面，欧洲央行(European Central Bank)执行理事会成员Benoit Coeure的一番讲话给投资者带来一丝安慰。Coeure暗示，欧洲央行可能再度通过债券购买计划来缓解西班牙面临的压力。意大利10年期国债收益率由周二的5.695%降至5.541%，西班牙10年期国债收益率由5.992%降至5.876%。

投资者同时还密切关注印尼西部苏门答腊岛海域发生的里氏8.6级地震的势态发展，此次地震引发了该地区的海啸预警。

经济消息方面，美国3月份进口价格因为石油价格飙升的缘故而创下近一年来的最大涨幅。

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)周三发布《当前经济形势报告概要》（俗称“黄皮书”），称2月中旬至3月底，美国经济继续保持温和适中的复苏步伐。

个股方面，诺基亚(Nokia)的美国存托股票大跌16%，因该公司警告称，市场、尤其是印度、中东、非洲和中国市场的竞争形势将对第一财季业绩带来冲击。

Titan Machinery股价飙升17%；该公司此前公布的第四财季利润和收入远超预期，并对2012财年前景作出了乐观的预期。

荣群电讯(Opnet Technologies)股价下跌13%，因该公司表示，第四财季利润和收入会逊于预期。

Applied Micro Circuits股价涨8.2%；该公司此前下调了第四财季收入预期，并且预计每股亏损会大于当前预期。

Owens-Illinois涨6.9%；因该公司表示，第一财季业绩将好于预期，因为定价趋势和经营效率有所改善。

Mattress Firm Holding飙升18%；因为该公司公布了强于预期的第四财季业绩，而且对当前财年也有乐观预期。

Global IPOs Boosted By Private Equity As Markets Recover-Survey

Private equity firms are taking advantage of recovering equity markets to sell companies in initial public offerings originally expected to take place last year, according to research released Wednesday by Ernst & Young.

The first quarter saw private equity-backed IPOs make up over a third of total IPO value globally. Buyout-backed deals accounted for $6.1 billion of a total $16.4 billion in value and for 36 of the 181 flotations.

While U.S. listings dominated, Europe produced the largest private equity-backed IPO in the period with Dutch cable firm Ziggo (ZIGGO.AE) listing on Amsterdam's Euronext in an IPO valuing the company at 3.7 billion euros.

"The U.S. economy seems to have turned around and domestic investors have much more confidence," Jeff Bunder, global private equity leader at Ernst & Young, told Dow Jones Newswires.

"But even in Europe where confidence lags, companies with good growth potential can get off the ground--Ziggo has good fundamentals and a great cash flow," he said.

Buyout firms have to balance the benefits of a sale by IPO against the inherent risks. Valuations tend to be higher for IPO exits rather than private sales to a trade buyer or another private equity firm but there is a risk because buyout firms never get out completely typically selling 10% or 20% of their stake.

"IPO is an exit that is not really an exit--a first step if you like," said Bunder. "You don't do it unless you are convinced there is a good growth trajectory."

Meanwhile, private equity firms themselves are taking advantage of more buoyant markets with Oaktree Capital Group, the U.S.-based distressed debt investor, expected to raise as much as $517.5 million in an IPO in the coming months.

The Carlyle Group is also on track to make its public market debut shortly.

调查：私募股权投资公司助推全球IPO交易

据安永会计师事务所(Ernst & Young)周三公布的调查报告显示，私募股权投资公司正借股市反弹的时机推动他们控制的公司进行首次公开募股(IPO)，这些IPO交易原本计划在去年进行。

今年第一季度，由私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易在全球IPO交易总额中的占比超过三分之一。期间，私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易额为61亿美元，交易数量36宗；全球IPO交易总额为164亿美元，交易数量总计181宗。

尽管第一季度美国市场的IPO交易规模居全球之首，但期间最大的由私募股权投资公司推动的IPO交易却出现在欧洲，即荷兰有线电视运营商Ziggo (ZIGGO.AE)在泛欧交易所(Euronext)估值37亿欧元的IPO交易。

安永全球私募股权部门主管Jeff Bunder对道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)称，美国经济似乎已经好转，国内投资者信心增强。

他称，即使在信心缺乏的欧洲市场，有良好增长潜力的公司还是可以脱颍而出，例如基本面良好、现金流强劲的Ziggo。

私募股权投资公司需平衡IPO交易的利弊。就公司估值来说，通过IPO交易将控制的公司转手通常会高于将其出售给其他买家或另外一家私募股权投资公司，但其中也存在着风险，因通过IPO交易通常只能出售在所投资公司持股总量的10%或20%，而无法全身而退。

Bunder称，通过IPO交易退出所控制的公司并非真正意义上的退出，只能说是第一步。除非确信公司有良好的增长前景，否则不宜采取这种做法。

与此同时，近期股市的上涨也令私募股权投资公司筹划自身的上市交易，包括计划在未来几个月通过IPO交易融资5.175亿美元的不良债务投资公司Oaktree Capital Group。

另外，凯雷投资集团(Carlyle Group)也计划不久后进行IPO。

Emerging-Market Stocks Sputter

Emerging-market stocks, one of last year's worst-performing sectors, rebounded sharply to start the year. But the gains have faltered in recent weeks, and strategists warn that slowing economic growth is threatening to drag the group lower in the second quarter.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 14% in the first three months of 2012, outpacing the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index by nearly two percentage points, on the way to its best first quarter since 1992. This year's early surge followed a 20% drop in 2011 versus a flat S&P 500.

But shares of companies based in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe and parts of Africa have lagged since the middle of February, with the emerging-market benchmark losing about 1.3% compared with a 3.9% rise in the S&P 500.

"Year-to-date returns have been quite deceptive. All that really happened in 2012 is a typically powerful bear-market bounce off 2011 lows," said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management.

Money has rushed into emerging-market stock mutual funds this year. In the first quarter, emerging-market stock funds soaked up $25.6 billion, the biggest net quarterly inflow since 2006, according to EPFR Global, which provides fund-flows and asset-allocation data. That compares with inflows of $1.7 billion into U.S. stock funds in the first quarter.

But investors' mood could be changing. During the final week of March, funds flowed out of emerging markets for the first time this year.

Many investors are lured to emerging-market equities because they tend to rise more sharply when global markets advance. Two popular emerging-market exchange-traded funds, the Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund, the second- and third-largest equity ETFs by market capitalization, registered gains of more than 100% from the post-financial-crisis bottom for U.S. stocks, in March 2009, to U.S. stocks' peak in May 2011. The S&P 500 gained more than 80% during that time period.

But while U.S. stocks have hit new multiyear highs this year, emerging-market stocks have yet to top last year's peak.

The recent sputter in emerging markets coincided with a series of worrying reports from China, the world's second-largest economy, as well as from India and Brazil.

"The market performance of emerging-market assets tends to be highly correlated to economic performance and growth," said Nick Chamie, global head of emerging-markets research at RBC Dominion Securities. "The ongoing soft data coming out of emerging markets will weigh on emerging-market performance." Mr. Chamie last week advised clients to "tactically take profits" in emerging-market assets.

Early last month, China cut its 2012 gross-domestic-product growth target to 7.5%, an eight-year low, from 8%. Two weeks later, an executive from mining giant BHP Billiton said China's demand for iron ore, used in steelmaking, is slowing. This month, mixed readings on manufacturing conditions in China perpetuated growth concerns.

Other emerging-market growth engines also are losing steam. Last month, India reported that in the fourth quarter of 2011 its economy grew at the slowest pace in more than two years, at 6.1%. A March report showed Brazil's economy grew less than 3% last year, well below its 7.5% growth rate in 2010.

"In the short term, growth is a concern," said Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners in Chicago. "In the global economy, it's hard to ignore the 800-pound economies."

To be sure, emerging-market growth remains far higher than in the economies of the U.S., Europe and Japan, and some strategists are bullish on developing-world stocks in the long term.

"There's not near the story in emerging markets that there was a decade ago, but there are still elements of a buy-and-hold profile as these countries are building out infrastructure and a burgeoning middle class," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management.

Average GDP growth forecasts for emerging-market economies remain above 5% for 2012, compared with about 2% for the U.S. and contraction in Europe, said Vijay Chopra, managing director of international equity at Heckman Global Advisors. "GDP growth forecasts have held up relatively well, and the long-term story is out there," he said. "Because [emerging-market stocks] did so poorly last year, they're relatively cheap."

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index's forward price/earnings ratio is about 10.4, while the S&P 500's P/E ratio is about 13.2.

And while strategists are wary that slowing growth will drive weakness in emerging-market stocks in the coming months, some contend the pullback could be an opportunity for the buy-and-hold crowd.

"Emerging markets have lagged the U.S. [in recent weeks] but are still in line with the developed world," said Adam Grimes, chief investment officer at Waverly Advisors, a Corning, N.Y.-based firm that advises pension funds and mutual funds. "We see a potential short-term tactical entry point for emerging markets and would initiate a 'long' position on strength over the next several weeks."

新兴市场股市涨势受阻

新兴市场股票是去年表现最差的资产类别之一，不过此类股票今年初出现了大幅反弹。但最近几周新兴市场的股市涨势受阻，策略师们警告称，新兴经济体增速放缓将拖累新兴市场股市在第二季度走低。

今年第一季度摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)上涨14%，较标准普尔500指数涨幅高出近两个百分点，创1992年以来第一季度最佳表现。该指数去年全年重挫20%，而同期标准普尔500指数为持平。

但从2月中旬开始，亚洲、拉美、东欧和非洲部分地区的股市开始走弱；摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数下跌约1.3%，同期标准普尔500指数上涨3.9%。

Marketfield Asset Management董事长Michael Shaoul表示，新兴市场股市年初至今的回报率相当具有欺骗性，这其实是去年触及低点后的典型的熊市反弹走势。

大量资金在今年涌入新兴市场股票共同基金。EPFR Global提供的数据显示，第一季度新兴市场股票基金共吸引资金256亿美元，是2006年以来净流入资金规模最高的一个季度。相比之下，当季流入美国股票基金的资金规模只有17亿美元。

但投资者人气可能发生变化。3月的最后一周资金流出新兴市场，是今年以来的首次。

许多投资者之所以被新兴市场股市吸引，是因为在全球市场上涨时，新兴市场股市的涨幅通常更大。在2009年3月金融危机爆发后美国股市触底至2011年5月美国股市见顶这段时间中，Vanguard摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数交易所交易基金(Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF)和iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund的涨幅超过100%，而同期标准普尔500指数的涨幅超80%。这两只EFT分别是全球市值排名第二和第三的股票ETF。

但在今年美国股市触及数年新高之际，新兴市场股市却仍未突破去年的高点。

巧合的是，出现这种情况时，中国、印度和巴西发布了一系列令人担忧的经济报告。

RBC Dominion Securities新兴市场研究部全球负责人Nick Chamie表示，新兴市场资产的市场表现与经济和增长情况存在高度相关。新兴经济体公布的疲软数据将给新兴市场的资产带来压力。Chamie上周建议客户对新兴市场资产进行战术性获利回吐。

上月初，中国宣布将2012年经济增速目标从8%调低至7.5%。两周后，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)一位管理人士称，中国的铁矿石需求正在放缓。本月，中国公布的喜忧参半的制造业报告令市场继续担忧其增长前景。

其他重要新兴经济体的增长势头也在减弱。上月，印度公布去年第四季度经济增长6.1%，创逾两年来最低增速。巴西3月份公布，该国经济2011年的增速不足3%，远低于2010年的7.5%。

Dearborn Partners驻芝加哥董事总经理Paul Nolte表示，短期而言，新兴经济体的增长前景是一大担忧。这些重要新兴经济体在全球经济中的影响力不容忽视。

当然，新兴经济体的增速依然远高于美国、欧洲和日本等发达经济体，部分策略师也看好发展中国家股市的长期表现。

Wells Capital Management首席投资长Jim Paulsen称，虽然新兴市场的表现与十年前不好比，但仍有值得投资并持有的理由，比如这些国家正在进行大规模的基础设施建设，并且中产阶级规模正在迅速壮大。

Heckman Global Advisors国际股票部门的董事总经理Vijay Chopra指出，今年新兴市场经济体的平均增速预计仍将高于5%，而美国经济的预计增幅仅约2%，欧洲经济则预计将出现萎缩。他表示，新兴经济体的增长预期仍相对较好，同时还存在长期增长前景。去年新兴市场股市的走势很差，所以它们现在的估值相对便宜。

摩根斯坦利国际新兴市场指数的预估市盈率约为10.4倍，标准普尔500指数的预估市盈率约为13.2倍。

虽然策略师担心经济增长放缓将导致未来几个月新兴市场股市走势疲软，但也有一些策略师认为回调将是逢低买进的机会。

Waverly Advisors首席投资长Adam Grimes指出，最近几周新兴市场的表现落后于美国市场，但仍跟上了发达国家的总体表现。他预计未来几周新兴市场可能出现短线买入时机，并将基于这些市场走强的预期而建立多头头寸。

Seeking 'Second' Life After Facebook

In 2008, Gideon Yu, then the chief financial officer of Facebook Inc., began steering some former employees who wanted to sell shares in the social network toward a specific buyer.

The firm, Millennium Technology Value Partners, paid about $10 million to acquire stock from about a dozen former employees of Facebook, according to people familiar with the matter.

Run by two alumni of private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP, Millennium won Mr. Yu's backing in part by vowing not to make purchases without Facebook's approval, the people said.

Millennium is one of a handful of managers that specialize in what has become known as secondary-market investing in shares of young companies that aren't yet traded on major exchanges.

The median age of companies backed by venture capital at their IPO has risen to nine years in 2010 from four years in 1999, according to the National Venture Capital Association. That is in part because of investors' sour memories of the 'tech wreck' of 2000-02 when valuations cratered after the late-1990s bubble.

As the time between companies' creation and their listing has lengthened, secondary shares have become a new asset class between venture-capital investing in startups and public markets, says Jason Jones, chief executive of HighStep Capital, which also invests in pre-IPO stocks.

While high-profile exchanges like SecondMarket Inc. and SharesPost Inc. have become the face of secondary-market trading, dozens of investment funds and vehicles have quietly emerged to buy such stock.

'Private company secondary funds are the new small cap funds,' Mr. Jones says. Others whose funds are open to wealthy and institutional investors include Saints Capital, Industry Ventures, and W Capital Partners.

The payoffs can be eye-catching. The 2006 Millenium fund that bought the Facebook shares had annual net returns of 30% on average, according to one investor.

But as Facebook, the eight-year-old darling of pre-IPO investors, prepares for a high-profile listing in May, the market is at a crossroads. Once Facebook joins other big-name social-media companies like Groupon Inc. and Zynga Inc. on the public markets, it isn't clear the secondary market can retain enough depth and breadth to deliver large returns to a growing number of investors.

'This has become a very popular way to invest and there may be too much capital chasing these types of investments,' said Marc Paley, managing partner at Scura Paley & Co., an investment banking boutique serving middle-market companies.

To be sure, there remain several heavily traded companies on pre-IPO markets, including social-media messaging service Twitter Inc., discount-deals service Living Social Inc. and flash-sale website Gilt Groupe Inc. But global volumes of private-company trading are expected to decline by 24% to $7.1 billion this year due to Facebook and other market exits, according to Nyppex LLC, which tracks and also trades in the market.

The market also has been dogged by questions about lack of disclosure and transparency. Last month, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged two managers of investment vehicles formed to hold Facebook shares with 'pocketing undisclosed fees and commissions.' One of the managers is fighting the charges; the other settled the case by paying a penalty without admitting or denying wrongdoing.

At the same time, recent regulatory changes could make pre-IPO funds less appealing for companies. One reason funds such as Millennium have been able to get stock is that companies have been required by securities rules to disclose financial information when their shareholder base exceeds 500. That rule has motivated companies like Facebook to channel pre-IPO stock sales to single, large investors, to keep the shareholder base down. Last week, however, the shareholder threshold was increased to 2,000 under a new law aimed at relaxing some securities rules for smaller companies.

Millennium executives say the future remains bright. 'We see many reasons why secondary will continue to grow even further in the coming years,' says Sam Schwerin, the former Blackstone banker who owns and runs Millennium.

Millennium, which raised a $284 million fund in 2010, eventually made investments in more than 50 private companies before an IPO or sale, including Twitter, online textbook rental service Chegg Inc., and apparel vendor Inc., all with management sponsorship similar to Facebook's.

'Clearly Facebook drove the acceptance of the market,' accounting for a majority of recent trading in pre-IPO stocks on exchanges, says Christopher Yang, who specializes in technology at Grove Street Advisors LLC, a Millennium investor that advises pension funds on venture investing. Still, he adds, 'the market potential continues to be quite large and is only growing.'

Mr. Schwerin the architect of the strategy of seeking companies' approval before buying shares, says companies still want to stay private longer, thus forcing employees and other investors who want to cash out to use the secondary market. The asset class 'has gone from obscure, unloved and sometimes unwelcomed a decade ago, to widely accepted and a fundamental part of the venture capital ecosystem today,' he says.

Millennium's own evolution underlines how secondary markets have changed. The current firm is the successor to three traditional venture funds formed during the tech bubble of the late 1990s by former Blackstone banker Daniel Burstein with money from the firm's then-chairman Pete Peterson.

The first two funds of $4 million and $10 million scored stratospheric returns of 29 and nine times their investments, respectively, investors say. But when Mr. Burstein raised $160 million from outside investors under the Millennium name in 2000, the next fund fell flat as the bubble collapsed, barely eking out a profit. Two years later, Mr Schwerin joined and hatched the idea of buying from companies' employees and other investors with management's blessing.

美二级市场股票交易来到十字路口

2008年，时任Facebook Inc.首席财务长的Gideon Yu开始劝说部分想要出售Facebook股份的前员工将股份卖给一位特定的买家。

据知情人士透露，这家名为Millennium Technology Value Partners的公司出资约1,000万美元从Facebook十几名前员工手中收购股份。

这位知情人士说，由曾在私募股权投资公司黑石集团(Blackstone Group LP)工作过的两人运营的Millennium公司所以赢得Gideon Yu的支持，部分原因是他们承诺未经Facebook批准不会进行股份收购。

Millennium是少数专门从事现在已经被外界所熟知的“二级市场投资”的机构之一。所谓“二级市场投资”是指投资那些尚未在大型交易所挂牌交易的年轻企业的股份。

美国国家风险投资协会(National Venture Capital Association)的数据显示，2010年，风险资本支持的企业进行首次公开募股(IPO)时，这些企业成立时间的中值已经从1999年的四年上升到九年。导致这种现象的部分原因是上世纪90年代末期股市泡沫破裂后，投资者对估值大跌令很多科技股在2000至2002年变得一文不值的情况还有酸涩的回忆。

对冲基金HighStep Capital的首席执行长琼斯(Jason Jones)说，随着公司从创立到上市的时间变长，二级市场股票(secondary shares)已经成为介于投资初创企业的风险资本和公开市场股票之间的一种新的资产类别。HighStep Capital也投资上市前的公司股票(pre-IPO stock)。

随着SecondMarket Inc.和SharesPost Inc.等备受瞩目的经纪商成为二级市场交易的代表，数十家投资基金和投资平台已经悄悄买入二级市场股票。

琼斯说，未上市公司二级市场基金是一种新的小型股基金。Saints Capital、Industry Ventures和W Capital Partners等公司也向富豪和机构投资者开放基金份额的申购。

此类基金的回报令人眼红。据一位投资者透露，买入Facebook股份的那只Millenium基金的年均净回报率高达30%。

但就在成立已有八年且颇受pre-IPO投资者青睐的Facebook正为其今年5月进行备受瞩目的IPO做准备之际，二级市场却处于一个十字路口。一旦Facebook像Groupon Inc.和Zynga Inc.等知名社交媒体企业一样将自己的股票在公开市场挂牌上市，二级市场能否保留足够的深度和广度向数量不断增加的投资者提供大量回报就不得而知了。

一家服务中间市场公司的小型投行Scura Paley & Co.的执行合伙人佩利(Marc Paley)说，二级市场股票已经成为一种非常受欢迎的投资品，追逐此类投资的资本可能已经数量过多。

可以肯定的是，在pre-IPO市场上仍有数家交易量很大的公司，包括社交媒体信息服务提供商Twitter Inc.、专门提供打折优惠服务的Living Social Inc.以及闪购促销网站Gilt Groupe Inc.。数据追踪商Nyppex LLC的资料显示，未上市公司股票的全球交易量今年预计将下滑24%，至71亿美元，原因是Facebook等公司退出了这一市场。Nyppex的股票也在这一市场上交易。

这个市场饱受缺乏信息披露和透明度的质疑。上个月，美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)指控专门用来持有Facebook股票的一些投资工具的两名经理人私自收取金额不明的费用和佣金。其中一位经理人正就该指控做出抗辩，另一位则通过交付罚金了结了此案，他对自己被控存在的不当行为既没承认，也没否认。

同时，最近的监管改革可能会让pre-IPO基金对企业的吸引力减少。Millennium这样的基金之所以能买到未上市公司的股票，其中一个原因是根据证券监管规定，如公司的股东基数超过500个，公司就需披露其财务状况。这一规定促使Facebook这样的公司在上市前把股票卖给了单个大型投资者，目的就是压低股东基数。不过根据一项旨在放宽对小公司证券监管的新法律，这一股东基数门槛上周已调高至2,000个。

Millennium的高管说，未来仍是光明的。目前拥有并经营Millennium的前黑石集团高管施威林(Sam Schwerin)说，我们认为有很多原因可保证二级市场在未来数年能进一步增长。

Millennium在2010年组建了一只规模达2.84亿美元的基金，该公司在50多家未上市公司进行IPO或将本公司出售给他人前投资了这些公司，其中包括Twitter、在线课本租赁服务提供商Chegg Inc.和服装零售商 Inc.等。与Facebook的情况一样，所有这些投资都得到了上述公司管理层的支持。

Millennium的投资者Grove Street Advisors LLC的科技股专家Christopher Yang说，很显然Facebook对于投资者接受二级市场起了很大作用。他还说，尽管Facebook的股票将退出二级市场，但这一市场的潜力仍很大，它还处于增长阶段。

施威林是在购买相关未上市公司股票前寻求该公司同意这一策略的设计师。他说，一些企业仍希望在较长时间内维持自己的私营状态，于是那些希望提现的员工和其他投资者就不得不来到二级市场上。他说，二级市场股票这一资产类别已从10年前的模糊、不受人待见甚至令人生厌变为了如今的被普遍接受，它已成为当今风险资本生态环境的一个基本组成部分。

Millennium自身的发展演变就可凸显出二级市场的巨大改变。这个公司的前身是上世纪90年代末科技股泡沫时期成立的三只传统风险基金，创始人是黑石集团前高管布尔斯坦恩(Daniel Burstein)，所用资金来自时任黑石董事长的彼得森(Pete Peterson)。

投资者说，前两只规模400万美元和1,000万美元的基金分别获得了29倍和9倍于自身投资的高额回报。但是，当布尔斯坦恩以Millennium之名在2000年从外部投资者那里筹到1.6亿美元时，这第三只基金却随着科技股泡沫的破裂而栽了跟头，几乎没有赚到什么钱。两年后，施威林加盟Millennium，想出了在公司管理层支持下，从公司员工和其他投资者那里购买未上市公司股票的点子。

Fund（基金）

Eurozone ministers agree €500bn in new bailout funds

Deal conforms to German prescriptions for a minimalist bailout fund, but falls short of OECD calls for the 'mother of all firewalls'

Europe's 17 single currency governments have agreed to deliver €500bn (£418bn) in bailout funds in the hope of erecting a firewall strong enough to contain the sovereign debt crisis, placate the markets and encourage non-eurozone International Monetary Fund (IMF) members to commit a similar sum to emergency reserves.

But the eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Copenhagen amid calls to erect the "mother of all firewalls", ditched explicit earlier proposals to keep a further €240bn in reserve for the next two years.

The deal agreed conformed to German prescriptions for a minimalist bailout, a recipe the European commission described in advance as inadequate to the challenges confronting the euro.

Ministers endeavoured to impress the bond markets, the Americans and the Chinese, trumpeting the agreement as worth "more than a trillion dollars" in the hope this will press the big IMF donors into doubling the monetary fund's reserves to a similar figure next month.

The French finance minister, François Baroin, said: "We are now in a strong position for discussion on the IMF in April. It is a good signal."

A statement from the eurogroup said: "Altogether, the euro area is mobilising an overall firewall of approximately €800bn – more than $1tn."

But that figure included €100bn in bilateral loans to Greece from EU countries in 2010, as well as €200bn to Ireland, Portugal and Greece from the temporary eurozone bailout fund, which closes next year, although those three programmes will run their course until 2015.

The Copenhagen summit degenerated into acrimony and some chaos when Austria's finance minister, Maria Fekter, upstaged eurozone leaders by announcing the €800bn firewall first. Jean-Claude Juncker, the veteran Luxembourg prime minister who has led the eurogroup for eight years and whose term expires in June, abruptly cancelled a press conference at which he was to unveil the news.

The new money comes in the form of the European stability mechanism (ESM), the permanent eurozone bailout kitty, and embryonic European Monetary Fund, which starts in July. The ESM's launch has already been brought forward, and ministers agreed to speed up the process of paying in capital to get the fund fully operational within two years.

Its lending capacity was capped at €500bn, as has long been planned. "As of mid-2013, the maximum lending volume of ESM will be €500bn. The combined lending ceiling of the ESM and the EFSF [European financial stability facility] will continue to be set at €700bn," the statement said in reference to the three ongoing bailouts from the temporary fund.

That fund totalled €440bn, leaving €240bn still available. A draft statement on Thursday said the spare €240bn would be held in reserve for emergency use, but that clause was dropped yesterday.

The permanent fund's lending capacity hinges on €80bn being paid in five instalments until 2014 to retain a triple-A credit rating, meaning that it could be two years before the fund is operating fully as foreseen. But the parallel operation of the current temporary and the future permanent funds will ensure a lending capacity of €500bn, the ministers said.

Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's powerful finance minister, is tipped to succeed Juncker in a post that the sovereign debt crisis has turned into one of the most crucial in the EU. But intense wrangling over how to divvy up a quartet of senior financial jobs meant those decisions were postponed.

Friday's agreement represented yet another win in the long-running euro saga for Berlin in dictating the terms of the eurozone's response to the crisis. France and others had argued for a trillion-euro firewall. Germany insisted the permanent fund should not exceed €500bn and on Monday conceded the €200bn of current bailouts could run concurrently.

"The euro area made substantial progress over the past 18 months to address the challenges stemming from the sovereign debt crisis," the ministers declared. "Important improvements were made to improve the governance of the euro area … robust firewalls have been established. This comprehensive strategy has paid off."

欧元区国家财长再增5000亿元稳定基金

最终结果符合德国提出的最低额度稳定基金方案，但是和经济合作与发展组织要求的“防火墙之母”还有差距。

欧洲17个实施单一货币的政府同意新增5000亿欧元（4180亿英镑）稳定基金借此建起一道强大的防火墙，从而遏制主权债务危机的蔓延、平息市场、鼓励非欧元区国际货币基金组织的成员拿出同样数量的应急储备。

在建立“防火墙之母”的呼声中，欧元区的财政部长们在哥本哈根召开会议，同意放弃在未来两年内预留2400亿欧元的作为应急储备的方案。

最终结果符合德国提出的最小限度稳定基金的方案。早些时候，欧洲委员会断定这个疗法不足以应对欧元目前面临的困难。

财长们尽力让债券市场、美国、中国保持信心，声称他们的目前达成的一致价值“超过1万亿元”，因为这有望推动国际货币基金组织的大股东们下个月增加一倍的货币基金存储，从而达到1万亿欧元。

法国财长弗朗索瓦·巴鲁安说：“现在我们在4月的国际货币基金组织讨论中处于有利地位，这是一个好的信号。”

欧洲集团的一份声明称：“欧元区正在动员一个总额8000亿欧元的防火墙计划-超过1万亿。”

但是这个数字包括了欧盟国家2010年向希腊提供的双边贷款，以及欧元区暂时稳定基金向冰岛、葡萄牙和希腊提供的2000亿贷款。这3笔款运行到2015年，但是暂时稳定基金明年是最后一年。

当奥地利财长突然宣布8000亿欧元计划，哥本哈根高峰会议一下子变得一团糟，与会者言辞激烈。经验丰富的卢森堡公国的首相让克洛德·容克已经执掌欧元集团8年，今年6月就要到期，在宣布这个新闻之前出人意料的取消了新闻发布会。

这笔新增货币将以欧洲稳定机制的形式出现。欧洲稳定机制将作为欧元区紧急援助基金的一种永久性机制，作为7月开始运作的欧洲货币基金组织的雏形。已经有人提出要启动欧洲稳定机制，财政们也同意加速向欧洲货币基金组织注资，促使该组织在2年内全面运行。

该组织一直计划最大贷款额度为5000亿欧元。“2013年年中的时候欧洲稳定机制的最大借款额度为5000亿欧元，加上欧洲金融稳定机制，整个借款能力的上限将持续达到7000亿。”这种说法参照了目前还在使用的3笔暂时基金款项。

暂时基金总额4400亿，现在还有2400亿预留。周四的时候曾经说过，这240亿欧元将预留应对紧急情况，但是昨天这些说法不见了。

为保持3A的信用等级，永久性基金的借款能力保持在800亿欧元，分5年分期贷款，延续到2014年。这就是说这要比原定的全面运行提前两年。财长们说，目前暂时的和未来永久的基金，将保证借款能力达到5000亿欧元。

德国强势的财政部长朔伊布勒将作为容克的继任者，而此时此刻，主权债务危机已经关乎欧盟生死存亡。但是对四分之一高级职位的激烈争吵，将让这那些应对危机的决定向后拖延。

长期以来，德国一直在应对危机中居于住到地位，周五的协议再次印证了这个不变的传奇。法国和其他国家曾经讨论过1万亿欧元的防火墙计划，但是德国坚持永久性基金不能超过5000亿欧元，周一的时候勉强同意现行的2000亿欧元紧急援助基金继续运行。

财长们说：“在过去18个月中，欧元区在应对主权债务危机的挑战中取得了实质性进展，欧元区的管理得到了重要改观，建立了强劲的防火墙，这一全面性战略已经取得阶段性胜利。”

Should private equity lower its hurdles?

Private equity investors have kept their preferred returns artificially high.

During a speech in Berlin last month, TPG Capital co-founder Jim Coulter spent a lot of time discussing the future of private equity fund structures. Most of it was in relation to general partner concessions, particularly in light of the ILPA guidelines. But then he brought up the issue of hurdle rates, and suggested that limited partners actually are getting an inappropriately sweet deal.

For the uninitiated, hurdle rates are the percentage return that a fund must generate for investors before fund managers get to begin sharing in the profits (i.e., carried interest).

Coulter said that they were originally structured to mirror 10-year U.S. Treasuries -- the broadly-accepted baseline for riskless investment. That's why hurdles were typically put at between 7% and 8%, which is where Treasuries were priced during most of the late 1980s and early 1990s (when the PE business was really becoming institutionalized). But Treasuries fell below 6% in 1998, and haven't looked back since. Hurdle rates, on the other hand, have mostly remained stable.

To be sure, there are exceptions. Firms with strong track records often propose lower hurdle rates (because they can), while firms with tougher fundraising slogs often propose higher hurdles rates (because they have to). But the original rationale seems to have been lost.

Coulter did not suggest that TPG planned to take up this particular mantle for its own fundraising efforts, nor did he think 2%-3% hurdle rates would ever become the new normal. But in a time when so much attention is focused on GP/LP alignment, I felt it was worth noting that not everything over the past decade has shifted in the GP's direction…

私募股权基金应降低最低回报率吗？

私募投资者将优先回报率人为地定得很高。

二月份，美国私募股权基金公司德州太平洋资本（TPG Capital）的共同创始人吉姆•库尔特在柏林演讲时花了大量篇幅探讨了私募股权基金架构的未来，主要谈到了一般合伙人作为基金管理者的让步，特别是从机构有限合伙人协会（ILPA）发布的指引来看。但接着，他提出了最低回报率问题，认为作为投资者的有限合伙人事实上占尽了便宜。

为了照顾那些不太了解私募股权基金的人们，这里有必要解释一下。所谓“最低回报率”就是一支基金承诺为投资者带来的回报率，只有在实现最低回报率后，基金管理人才能开始分享利润（即资本增值提成）。

库尔特表示，最低回报率最初的设计是基于10年期美国国债这一普遍接受的无风险投资基准，因此，最低回报率过去往往设定在7- 8%之间，20世纪80年代末、90年代初大多数时候美国国债的收益率都处于这样的水平（当时也是私募股权基金真正开始兴起的时候）。但1998年美国国债收益率跌破了6%，而且此后再也没有回头。但另一方面，私募股权基金的最低回报率却基本保持了稳定。

当然，也有例外。历史业绩不错的一些公司往往会给出较低的最低回报率（因为他们有资本这样做），募资困难的公司就会给出较高的最低回报率（因为他们必须这样做）。但最初的逻辑依据似乎已经丧失。

库尔特没有说德州太平洋资本未来融资将采取这样的做法，也没有说2-3%的最低回报率将成为新的常态。但当前市场这么关注一般合伙人与有限合伙人的关系，我觉得在这个时候有必要指出的是，过去十年来并不是所有事情都向着对一般合伙人有利的方向转变……

IPOs close out banner quarter

Best first quarter in years, with Facebook around the corner.

It's time to throw another shovelful of dirt on the notion of an "IPO crisis" for emerging companies.

20 venture capital-backed companies went public on U.S. exchanges during the first quarter, which is the highest Q1 number of such issuers since the beginning of 2000. They raised around $1.63 billion, which is the highest first-quarter tally since Q1 2007. The combined post-offering value was approximately $9.5 billion.

The quarter's largest VC-backed IPO was for ExactTarget (ET), an Indianapolis-based maker of email marketing software, which last week raised $161.5 million by pricing 8.5 million common shares at $19 a piece (it opened trading today at $26.49). It was followed by Millennial Media (MM), a Baltimore-based mobile advertising platform that on Wednesday night raised $133 million by pricing 10.2 million shares at $13 per share (it opened today at $25.58).

Most of the quarter's IPOs were for information technology companies, but there also were several life sciences and cleantech companies in the mix. The largest of the non-IT bunch was Cambridge, Mass.-based oncology drug company Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK), which raised $100 million earlier this week.

The only real negative for the quarter was that it didn't feature a blockbuster IPO, like LinkedIn (LNKD), Groupon (GRPN) or Zynga (ZNGA). Expect that to be rectified in Q2, when Facebook hits the public markets. We also could begin to see a slew of new issuance from small-cap companies, thanks to recent JOBS Act legislation.

美国IPO市场一季度完美收官

2012年一季度是美国IPO市场几年来最好的一季度，上市公司数量、融资总额等各项指标均创下新高，唯一的遗憾是没有出现重磅的上市活动，但是Facebook上市在即，这种局面也将得到改观。

新兴公司“IPO危机”的说法可以休矣。

2012年第一季度，有20 家由风险投资支持的公司在美国股市上市，创下2000年以来此类公司同期IPO新高。这些公司共筹集约16.3亿美元资本，也是2007年一季度以来的同期新高。上市后总市值约95亿美元。

一季度由风投支持的最大IPO是ExactTarget ，这家位于印第安纳波利斯的电邮营销软件公司上周筹集了1.615亿美元，发行850万股普通股，每股定价19美元（该股3月30日开盘价为26.49美元）。其次为Millennial Media，这家位于巴尔的摩的移动广告平台服务商在3月28日夜间筹集了1.33亿美元，发行1,020万股，每股定价13美元（该股3月30日开盘价为25.58美元）。

一季度大部分IPO公司都是IT公司，但也有几家生命科学和清洁科技公司。最大的非IT公司是总部位于马萨诸塞州剑桥的肿瘤药公司Merrimack Pharmaceuticals，该公司本周早些时候筹集了1亿美元。

第一季度唯一遗憾的是没有一场像LinkedIn、Groupon或Zynga这样的重磅IPO。第二季度随着Facebook上市，这种状况预计将得到改变。另外，由于最近通过的Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act法案，我们还将开始看到一系列小盘股发行。

Bond（债券）

Tepid Sale Adds to Spain's Woes

A weak auction of Spanish government bonds Wednesday pointed to a critical problem for Europe's financially stressed governments: Who will buy their debt?

Spain sold a total of €2.59 billion ($3.43 billion) in bonds with maturities between 2015 and 2020, near the bottom of its target volume, and it had to pay higher yields than in prior auctions to entice investors to take them. That result sent yields climbing in Italy as well, and pushed stock markets down across the region.

By early afternoon, yields on the Spanish 10-year bond were at 5.66%; they had ended Tuesday at 5.45%, according to Tradeweb. The comparable Italian bond was at 5.31%, up from 5.15%.

The potential implications of the tepid Spanish sale are broad: Spanish banks this year have gobbled up the government's debt, masking a dearth of foreign buyers. A slowdown in purchases by the local banks could portend trouble.

The auction is also a first verdict on the new government's just-announced budget plan, which calls for severe spending cuts and tax increases to trim a persistent deficit. Many economists have warned that such austerity—European policy makers' favored weapon against the debt crisis—could plunge wobbly economies into deep contraction. Spain is struggling with 23% unemployment. The government forecasts the economy will shrink 1.7% this year.

It also overshadowed a relatively good auction Wednesday of €1.5 billion in Portuguese treasury bills, with maturities between six and 18 months—the longest-dated paper that Portugal has sold since accepting a bailout last year. Portugal's medium- and long-term yields rose, albeit in thin trading.

Europe is skating into an extended Easter break. Thursday, Friday and Monday are public holidays in Spain, which likely tempered interest. Many other markets are closed on Friday and Monday.

Still, the auction represented a stark turnaround from earlier in the year, when Spain attracted heavy demand for its bonds and responded by selling them by the barrelful to Spanish banks.

Now, demand from Spanish banks is "much lower than in January and February," said Laurent Fransolet of Barclays Capital in London. It wasn't likely, he says, that local banks could have "continued to buy 20 billion [euros] of bonds a month."

Foreign investors may also be skeptical of Spain's fiscal plans. "There are a lot of question marks about the banking system and the budget," he said.

Thanks to its early sales, Spain has already completed nearly half of its planned issuance for the year.

But Wednesday's results suggest that keen demand has significantly dulled. A bond maturing in January 2015 attracted €2.8 billion in bids, 2.41 times the amount Spain ultimately sold, with an average yield of 2.89%. That same bond, at an auction just three weeks ago, attracted nearly five euros in bids for every euro sold, and Spain paid a yield of 2.44%.

Spanish banks have been huge buyers of government debt in recent months, thanks in large part to a flood of cheap, three-year money doled out by the European Central Bank at the end of 2011 and again in February.

That made borrowing from the ECB, and turning around and lending to the Spanish government, an enticing play for many domestic banks. Their holdings of Spanish debt has consequently soared.

As of February, Spanish banks held €142 billion, or 25%, of so-called unstripped government debt—that is, securities whose interest and principal payments haven't been split into separate instruments—according to data from the Spanish treasury. That was up from €119 billion in January and €94 billion in December. In the mid-2000s, the Spanish banks' holdings were typically around 6% of the total.

At the same time, foreign holdings of that debt tumbled from €281 billion in December to €245 billion in February.

西班牙国债拍卖结果凸显欧债乏人问津困境

周三西班牙国债拍卖结果疲软凸现出欧元区外围国家面临的一个重要难题：谁会买这些受困国家的债券？

西班牙周三发售了总共25.9亿欧元、2015年至2020年到期的国债，规模接近目标区间的低端。为了吸引投资者，西班牙还给出了比之前拍卖更高的收益率。受此影响，意大利国债收益率也上涨，并导致该地区股市普遍走低。

Tradeweb的数据显示，周三后市前段，西班牙10年期国债收益率报5.66%，高于周二交易时段结束时的5.45%。意大利10年期国债收益率报5.31%。

不温不火的西班牙国债拍卖结果具有多方面的潜在寓意。西班牙银行业年初曾大量购买国债，掩盖了西班牙国债缺乏外国投资者问津的事实，而眼下本地银行购买力度减弱可能导致问题最终暴露。

此次拍卖也是对西班牙政府刚刚公布的新预算案的首个重要评判，新预算案要求大力削减开支并增加税收以克服顽固的赤字问题。许多经济学家警告，这样的紧缩措施或导致原本就不稳定的经济走向严重萎缩。西班牙的失业率现居高不下。

西班牙国债拍卖结果也使周三葡萄牙国债拍卖相对较好的表现打了折扣。葡萄牙周三发行了期限6个月至18个月的国债，是该国自去年接受救助以来发行的期限最长的债券。在清淡的交投背景下，葡萄牙中长期国债收益率上升。

欧洲即将迎来复活节假期，周四、周五和下周一均为西班牙的公共假日，这可能也是投资者对西班牙国债购买意向不强烈的一个原因。

不过，拍卖结果的确表明市场形势较今年早些时候发生了明显逆转，当时西班牙国债需求十分旺盛，大量国债被西班牙本地银行购得。

Barclay Capital驻伦敦的Laurent Fransolet表示，眼下西班牙银行业对国债的需求远远低于1、2月份；本地银行不可能再维持一个月200亿欧元国债的购买规模。

海外投资者对西班牙的财政计划可能也心存疑虑，他们心中或许对西班牙银行系统及预算案存有大量问号。

得益于早先国债的发行，西班牙今年的发行计划已完成近半。

但周三的拍卖结果表明，投资者对国债的需求已大大降温。2015年1月到期的西班牙国债吸引了28亿欧元的认购资金，是最终发行规模的2.41倍，平均中标收益率为2.89%。

而三周前同期限债券拍卖时，投标倍数近五倍，中标收益率为2.44%。

西班牙银行业是近月来西班牙国债的大买家，这在一定程度上要归因于2011年底以及今年2月份欧洲央行(European Central Bank)向市场供应了大量3年期低息贷款。

向欧洲央行申请贷款，再把拿到的钱借给西班牙政府，这已经成为对西班牙许多本地银行极有诱惑力的一项操作。因此，西班牙银行业持有的西班牙债务也顺势飙升。

截至2月份，西班牙银行业持有1,420欧元的未分割政府债券（利息和本金尚未进行分割），高于1月份时的1,190亿欧元以及去年12月份时的940亿欧元。

而海外投资者2月份时持有的这类债券规模从去年12月份时的2,810亿欧元降至2,450亿欧元。

BlackRock's Street Shortcut

BlackRock Inc. is planning to launch a trading platform this year that would let the world's largest money manager and its peers bypass Wall Street and trade bonds directly with one another.

The electronic trading hub has the potential to reduce a lucrative revenue stream for investment banks at a time when their businesses are being squeezed by lackluster markets and new regulations put in place to curb risk in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

The trading platform would be run by the New York-based company's BlackRock Solutions arm and offer 46 clients─including sovereign-wealth funds, insurance companies and other money managers─the ability to trade in corporate bonds, mortgage securities and other assets, company executives say.

Under the plan, the platform would seek to match buyers and sellers of the same securities, in a process known as 'crossing trades.' BlackRock Solutions would charge a small fee for the service that would be much lower than Wall Street's trading commissions.

Some of the transactions would effectively cut out the Wall Street dealers that have long acted as middlemen in the credit markets. BlackRock's asset business, which oversees $3.5 trillion, would also use the platform.

BlackRock executives contend that the platform is aimed at lowering costs and plugging a gap in Wall Street's diminished ability to provide market liquidity, not at competing with investment banks.

'It's not going to cannibalize Wall Street,' Richard Prager, a BlackRock managing director and head of global trading, said in an interview. 'If there's a savings available to clients, we want to give it to them.'

BlackRock Chief Executive Laurence D. Fink has long been a vocal critic of the way Wall Street banks collect a large 'spread,' or price gap, between a bond's purchase and selling price, and has sought to reduce costs for clients of his firm.

The plans by BlackRock underline the structural changes taking place in the plumbing of financial markets as new regulations aimed at curbing bank risk and tighter funding markets reduce Wall Street's ability and resources to provide trading services to investors.

The trading inventories of corporate and mortgage bonds held by large dealers, mostly Wall Street banks, have declined over 70% since 2007, which marked the beginning of the credit crunch that preceded the financial crisis. Over this same period, corporate-bond issuance has grown and the amount of assets held by the investment community has risen significantly.

BlackRock representatives have begun to approach money managers about signing on to the platform and have formed an advisory group of six to eight of their BlackRock Solutions clients to work on the initiative, which is tentatively called 'Aladdin Trading Network,' after the firm's Aladdin investment-management system. Several of the clients in the advisory group also have agreed to sign on to the new platform, according to the company.

The firm also has been in talks with Wall Street dealers, which may provide price quotes to the system. The banks also could be called upon to respond to orders that can't be matched directly between investment firms.

BlackRock is seeking approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the platform. The company recently completed a test trade on the new platform and expects to launch it by year's end. An SEC spokesman declined to comment.

Across Wall Street, BlackRock's plan is seen by investment bankers as controversial because of its potential to reduce dealers' bond-trading revenues.

But BlackRock's sheer size makes it one of Wall Street's biggest customers, making it hard to ignore. The funds it manages dole out billions of dollars in trading commissions and fees to dealers each year, and BlackRock will likely continue to send a lot of business to Wall Street even if the firm does some trades on its own platform.

Some bankers, however, are skeptical that BlackRock's new trading platform can attract significant activity because there are thousands of different bonds and the likelihood that firms will want to trade the same bonds at the same time may be relatively low. A bond issuer like General Electric Co., GE +1.44% for example, has dozens of different debt securities.

BlackRock also may face an uphill battle persuading clients to support the initiative, because most money managers aren't accustomed to posting their bids and offers for others to see.

BlackRock is already trying to enhance its own ability to cross stocks, bonds and other trades among the 10,000 portfolios of mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts it manages. In late 2010 it stepped up efforts to let its funds trade stocks and bonds directly with each other. A key goal was to save on trading commissions and fees that would otherwise go to brokerages and Wall Street firms.

The money manager also recently set up a trading desk in Princeton, N.J., to handle small bond trading orders for the accounts it manages. Bond orders of $2 million or less now are moved over to the desk, where they are traded on various electronic platforms.

The company hopes to double the number of stock, bond, foreign exchange and other trades it crosses internally to 6% to 8% of its trading volume from about 3% currently.

贝莱德拟出新平台 绕过券商直接交易

贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)计划今年推出一个交易平台，该平台将使这家全球最大的资产管理公司及同行绕过华尔街而相互直接交易债券。

在眼下投行业务面临着市场低迷和为控制后金融危机时期风险而出台的新规的挤压之际，该电子交易平台有可能减少投行一个巨大的收入来源。

贝莱德高管说，该交易平台将由这家纽约公司旗下的BlackRock Solutions部门运营，将使其46家客户能够交易公司债券、抵押贷款证券和其他资产。其客户包括主权财富基金、保险公司和其他资产管理公司。

根据计划，该交易平台将力求把交易同一证券的买家和卖家进行匹配，这个过程即所谓的“交叉盘交易”。BlackRock Solutions将对这项服务收取少量费用，费用将远远低于华尔街公司的交易佣金。

其中一些交易实际上将绕过一直以来作为信贷市场中间人的华尔街券商。贝莱德的资产业务管理着3.5万亿美元，该业务也将使用这一平台。

贝莱德高管承认，该交易平台旨在降低成本，弥补华尔街提供市场流动性的能力减弱所造成的缺口，而不是为了与投行竞争。

贝莱德董事总经理、全球交易业务主管普拉格(Richard Prager)在接受采访时说，这不会吃掉华尔街；如果客户有可以省钱的机会，我们希望向他们提供这种机会。

贝莱德首席执行长芬克(Laurence D. Fink)历来直言不讳地批评华尔街银行在债券买进价和卖出价之间收取高额价差的做法，并一直寻求为自己公司的客户降低成本。

贝莱德的计划凸显出，随着旨在控制银行风险的新规和收紧的融资市场削弱了华尔街向投资者提供交易服务的能力和资源，金融市场正在发生结构性转变。

自2007年以来，大型券商（多为华尔街银行）持有的公司债券和抵押贷款债券的交易存量下滑了70%以上。2007年标志着信贷紧缩的开始，随后就发生了金融危机。在同一时期，公司债券发行一直在增长，投资业持有的资产额大幅增加。

贝莱德的业务代表已经开始接触基金经理，与他们讨论平台的注册事宜，此外，贝莱德还组建了由六到八名BlackRock Solutions客户组成的顾问团队，以完善该项目。该计划暂时被命名为“阿拉丁交易网络”(Aladdin Trading Network)，与公司阿拉丁投资管理系统一致。贝莱德说，顾问团队中的几个客户也已经同意注册使用这一新的平台。

公司还与可能为该系统提供报价的华尔街交易人员进行了交谈。当投资公司的订单无法直接匹配时，还可以让银行对这些订单进行处理。

贝莱德正在试图让美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission，简称：SEC)批准发布这一平台。公司最近在新平台上完成了测试交易，预计在年底前发布。SEC发言人对此事不予置评。

在华尔街，贝莱德的计划在投资银行家中引发了争议，因为该计划有可能让证券经纪人从债券交易中获得的收入减少。

但是贝莱德凭借规模已经是华尔街最大的客户之一，因此它很难被忽视。贝莱德管理的基金每年为证券经纪人提供数十亿美元的交易佣金和费用，而且，即使贝莱德在自己的平台上进行一些交易，它也很可能继续将大量业务交给华尔街。

不过，一些银行家怀疑，贝莱德新的交易平台不会吸引很多交易，因为债券的种类高达数千种，而公司在同一时间想交易相同债券的可能性相对来说较低。例如，像通用电气(General Electric Co.)这样的债券发行者就有数十种不同的债券。

为说服客户支持这一计划，贝莱德可能也要打一场攻坚战，因为多数基金经理还不习惯向他人公布自己的出价和索价。

贝莱德已经开始加强在其管理的1万个共同基金、对冲基金和独立账户的投资组合中交叉匹配股票、证券和其他交易的能力。2010年年末，贝莱德加大了努力，让其基金相互之间直接进行股票和证券交易。贝莱德的一个重要目标是减少支付给经纪商和华尔街公司的交易佣金和费用。

这家资产管理公司最近还在新泽西州的普林斯顿设立了交易柜台，为其管理的账户处理小规模债券交易订单。规模在200万美元及以下的债券订单现在被转移到这个柜台进行处理，这些债券在不同的电子平台上进行交易。

公司希望使其内部交叉进行的股票、证券、外汇和其他交易加倍，达到其交易总额的6%到8%。目前这一比例大约为3%。

Private Debt Will Likely Weigh on Growth for Years

Public debt has received most of the spotlight since the European debt crisis flared up more than two years ago. But private-sector debt is arguably a more intractable problem, and governments, particularly in the euro zone, appear unlikely to embrace bold policies that would ease its burden on the European economy.

The origin of the private-debt problem is mortgages: Real-estate prices soared in a number of European countries, and banks were willing to lend ever-larger sums for home purchases. The real-estate boom has since hit the rocks throughout much of Europe, but mortgage debt endures as an albatross hanging around the necks of European consumers.

Economists have found a strong link between consumption, credit booms and falling real-estate prices: Countries that experienced a sharp rise in household debt will experience a sharper fall in consumption after a housing bust than nations where debt hasn't risen as fast. If you borrowed a lot of money to buy your house (and the land it rests on), and then prices fall soon afterwards, you are more likely to want to repay the debt than go out to dinner, buy a new car or renovate your house.

Those decisions, multiplied throughout the economy, are dragging on European nations, such as the Netherlands, Denmark and the U.K., that lived through a credit boom.

"Housing busts and recessions preceded by larger run-ups in household debt tend to be more severe and protracted," the International Monetary Fund said in a report this year.

Evidence of this effect is clear in Europe. In the Netherlands and Denmark, where debt levels rose sharply before the crisis, household consumption has fallen 3.3% and 3% respectively since 2008. In the U.K., after a decade of sharply rising household debt, consumption has fallen 3.5%.

German households, which actually saw their debt relative to disposable income fall over the previous decade, consumed 2.4% more last year than they did in 2008.

What can the European Union do? The bloc has spent countless hours coming up with ways to prevent housing bubbles and credit booms from spiralling out of control. There is a new macroeconomic "scoreboard" with indicators showing that a country's economic situation might not be sustainable and penalties for euro-zone countries that don't act to fix the situation.

But all these policies are geared toward prevention, a worthy goal but one of little use to countries floundering in the aftermath of a credit boom and housing bust. And unfortunately, the EU's economic rules will make it very difficult to shrug off the burden of household debt accumulated over the previous decade.

Fiscal policy can normally help. It has in the U.S., where spending by the government has helped the private-sector deleverage. But the EU's fiscal rules are forcing all governments to cut their deficits to below the EU's limit of 3% of gross domestic product.

Nor is monetary policy likely to come to the rescue. Interest rates throughout the developed world are already low, and in the euro zone the European Central Bank appears unlikely to embark on a sustained program of unconventional monetary easing.

"I am afraid we have chosen, in a very masochistic way, the most painful path, where everybody bleeds," said Paul De Grauwe, professor of economics at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.

Finally, a bold program of debt forgiveness can make a difference, the IMF said in its report. During the Great Depression, for example, the U.S. Home Owners' Loan Corporation bought about one million distressed mortgages from banks and renegotiated softer terms for borrowers, helping ease the consumption squeeze facing households struggling with large debts.

European officials, however, are unlikely to pursue a program like this for a number of reasons. The biggest obstacle is the political problem associated with, say, Spanish households telling their German creditors that their debts won't be repaid.

"There's also nobody to force that to happen," Mr. De Grauwe said. "You really need a federal government, and we don't have that at the European level."

With no policy solutions on the horizon, highly indebted European consumers could be facing a long period of slow, growth-stunting deleveraging.

欧洲经济增长难以摆脱私人债务重压

自两年多前欧洲债务危机爆发以来，公共债务问题就成为最受瞩目的焦点。但可以说，私人债务是一个更为棘手的问题，而各国政府，特别是欧元区国家政府似乎不大可能采取大胆举措来减轻私人债务给欧洲经济带来的负担。

私人债务问题起源于抵押贷款：当初不少欧洲国家房地产价格飙升，银行也增加了对购房者的贷款投放。之后，欧洲很多地区的房地产泡沫破裂，但抵押贷款债务并未消失，成为欧洲消费者的沉重负担。

经济学家发现，消费、信贷扩张以及房地产价格下滑之间存在紧密联系。房地产泡沫破裂之后，那些私人债务大幅攀升的国家会出现较大程度的消费下滑。如果你借了很多钱买房子（包括房子占用的土地），之后房价很快下跌，那么你更有可能拿钱来还贷，而不是下馆子、买新车或装修房子。

这些消费决策在经济中会放大效应，给荷兰、丹麦、英国等经历过信贷扩张的欧洲国家造成拖累。

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, 简称IMF)今年发布的报告称，以私人债务大规模上升为前奏的房地产危机和经济衰退将更为严重，时间也更为持久。

这种现象在欧洲十分明显。荷兰和丹麦在危机之前曾出现私人债务水平大幅上升的情况，这两国的家庭消费支出自2008年以来分别下降了3.3%和3%。而在英国，经过10年的家庭债务水平激增之后，消费支出下降了3.5%。

德国去年的消费支出比2008年增长了2.4%，而之前10年，该国相对于可支配收入的私人债务水平实际上是在下降。

那么欧盟(European Union)应该做些什么呢？欧盟花费了大量时间来制定防止房地产泡沫和信贷扩张失控的措施。在新树立起来的宏观经济“记分板”上，有衡量一国经济是否已面临崩溃的指标，也写明了不采取行动解决问题的欧元区国家将受到何种惩罚。

但这些政策都只是预防性措施，出发点不错，但对信贷扩张和房地产泡沫破裂后陷入困境的国家而言却没什么用处。而且遗憾的是，欧盟的经济规则使各国很难甩掉之前10年来积累的家庭债务负担。

财政政策通常会有所帮助。美国的财政政策就发挥了作用：政府支出推动了私营领域的去杠杆化。但欧盟的财政规则迫使各国政府将赤字削减至国内生产总值(GDP)的3%以下。

通过货币政策解决问题的可能性也不大。发达国家利率水平已经很低，而欧洲央行(European Central Bank)似乎也不大可能持久实施非常规的放松性货币政策。

比利时鲁汶天主教大学(Catholic University of Leuven)经济学教授Paul De Grauwe说，恐怕欧洲是选择了一条最痛苦的路。

IMF的报告指出，最终能发挥作用的还是大胆的债务减免计划。比如，在大萧条时期，美国Home Owners' Loan Corporation从银行购买了大约100万笔不良抵押贷款，然后协商出对借款人更优惠的条款，从而缓解了债务负担沉重的家庭挤压消费的问题。

但出于多种原因，欧洲官员不大可能实施这样的计划。最大的障碍就是政治问题，比如，西班牙人会对德国债权人说，他们不会偿还债务。

De Grauwe表示，欧洲缺少一个强制执行机构。真的需要有一个全欧洲层面的联邦政府，但现在没有。

由于现在还没有什么解决之道，再加上经济不振的影响，欧洲消费者的减债之路漫长而艰苦。

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FINANCE

Vol.44,2012

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