PDF But Don't Ignore the Risks It's All Good
Lower Rates, Higher Markets,
But Don't Ignore the Risks
The US economy remains strong. GDP is positive, with good consumer participation bringing business enthusiasm for further positive activity. The employment market has higher participation rates, historic low unemployment and wage growth, which is trouncing underlying core inflation numbers.
That low inflation has been trending even lower over the past many months despite higher wages and the threat of higher costs forecast from trade tirades around the globe. And with these conditions, the FOMC has pulled back from its hawkish bent on interest rates and should work to influence lower rates for the months to follow, even if it keeps its target range for the federal funds rate near current levels.
This means the economy will continue to benefit from lower interest costs, which means lower credit costs for businesses and consumers. It also means lower yields and higher prices for bonds. The bottom line: Interest rate sensitive investments should continue to do well, including REITs, utilities and a new market segment for the portfolios--gold.
But there are still risks out there. Trade disruptions from technology restrictions to tariffs remain. And the 2020 elections are now fully underway and could introduce uncertainty into 2021. Yet, potential changes in Washington and around the nation's state houses doesn't mean the end of the good times, just different opportunities.
Simply put, with the exception of near-term earnings and reduced fullyear outlooks, as well as potential over-exuberance, there are a lot of good things happening for income and growth investors.
Vol. 30, No. 8
August 2019
We've Been Here Before, And
It's All Good
Dear Friend, One of the benefits of being older is that you gain perspective. And when it
comes to the current economic and market conditions, I recall the late 1970s when US inflation, as measured by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), was soaring. By November 1980, the PCE hit 9.77%.
It was a time of many political and economic crises, and the elections on November 4 of that year brought a major series of changes. Monetary and fiscal policies were altered, and the PCE began to fall precipitously, hitting a low of a mere 2.81% by March 1987. There were many beneficiaries during this time.
The bond market soared, particularly higher-yield corporate bonds, with the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate High Yield Index gaining 188.67% from September 1981 through October 1988. Spot gold prices in the US gained 71.36% from June 1982 through February 1983. And of course, the S&P 500 Index rose 228.81% from August 1982 through August 1987.
In this issue, I'll explain how lower inflation and lower interest rates are driving specific segments of the markets today. I'll also reveal which parts of the bond markets are providing high yields now and further gains in the future as well as how you can profit from this trend.
I'll also talk about gold and how you can get paid to own it. And as always, I'll review the model portfolio positions and do some necessary housecleaning.
Growth Strategies
Why Yields Will Head Even Lower
While the US economy is in one of the longest periods of sustained growth in history, there is a conflict, which is that inflation is not only not there--it is falling. And there are plenty of reasons for this.
For example, changing consumer tastes for goods and services are bringing further competition for sales and helping to drive prices lower overall. Furthermore, with greater efficiencies from online sales and dramatically improving logistics, companies are able--if only out of necessity--to slice and dice costs to keep and gain sales.
This is showing up in many of the faster growth companies with a technology focus, which are gaining sales and market penetration but losing more money in the process. Just look at a company like Uber (UBER). It has a massive market, but it still has negative operating margins at -26.90%. Even Amazon (AMZN), with its massive command of online retail, would be at risk if it weren't for its Amazon Web Services platform, which cushions the loss-leading retail sales.
Meanwhile, many of the input costs continue to fall, particularly in raw materials. The Bloomberg Commodities Index has been falling over the trailing five years by 38.34%. This means that, even with trade tariffs, raw goods are still down in price--reducing costs and inflation pressures.
And while wages are up, with the most recent data showing annualized gains of 3.10%, this is not showing up in pricing for goods and services.
This is also evident in wholesale prices in the US, as finished goods prices for businesses have fallen over the past 12 months. The US Producer Price Index (PPI)
(continued)
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Team Corporate Bond ETF
dropipSheadrestoPreafebrreadre&lIyncothmeerSeecruarittieesoEfTF0.40% seen market actions from its rhetoric2.b50y
for thVaengmuaordsTtaxr-eEcxeemnptt mBonodnInthde'sx EdTaF ta.
individual Fed Board members, both
The key item to watch is the same current and inbound, as well as behi2n.d00
one the Federal Reserve Bank's Open the scenes activity aiding liquidity in
Market Committee (FOMC) uses as
the bond and money markets.
1.50
its inflation barometer--the Core
I am writing all of this ahead of
Personal Consumption Expenditure
the FOMC's two-day meeting on Ju1l.y00
Index (PCE), which measures pricing 30-31. For now, I expect the committee
across all consumer spending.
to cut the target rate. But even witho0.u50t
The PCE has fallen to a current
a cut next week, the FOMC is still
1.60%, which is well below the stated pointing to easier monetary conditio0n.0s0.
2.00% target of the FOMC. The
When it really comes down to interest
FOMC haJsunb7een tellJiunng14the maJrukne21ts 2019 Jurna2t8es and bJuol n8 d yieldJsu,l 1i5t is the market that it will act in accordance with the that actually decides.
PCE. But it apparently lied last year,
And this keeps showing up in lower
as it raised its target range for the
yields. Year to date, US benchmark
federal funds rate four times while inflatVViaaonnggnuuaawrrddaHRseigahnl EDosiwvtaidtheeneEdTrFYeietldoETbFe found.
LaVsatnmguaordnUthtil,itiIeswETrFote about how
Treasury yields have fallen from 14 2.60% to 1.97% for the one-year, 2.51% to 1.81% for the five-year and 12
this iVsansgiumaridlIanfrortmoat1io9n9Te5c-h1no9lo9g6y EwTFhen the FOMECneraglysSoelebcut Snegctloer dSPDitRsFtuandrget rate rangeV,anrgauiasrdinHgealtthhCrearee EtTiFmes, only to
2.69% to 2.05% for the 10-year. 10 Meanwhile, with low to negative
inflation in Europe and Japan, the 8
reverse course quickly.
European Central Bank (ECB) and 6
This led the federal funds rate down, and the bond market rallied.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) have driven yields into negative territory (see the Q&A 4
The Bloomberg Barclays US
section on page 10 for more on how th2is
Corporate Bond Index gained 32.70% works). The result is that government0
for 1995-1996. The S&P 500 Index
bonds and corporate bonds increasingly
returned 69.05%. And gold rallied
have negative yields.
-2
from its in 1996
loJwuns7 in earlJyun119495 by 11.84%.
to
itJsunh21igh20s19
Jun 2T8his is crJuela8ting anJeulv1e5n better market for US corporate bonds, which
Now, I'm way ahead of what the
are strongly in demand from US
FOMC may do this year. But I have
and global investors. Just look at my
US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index
Last Price
1.60
High on 07/31/18 2.04 2.00
Average
1.83
Low on 03/31/19 1.54
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
Jun
Sep 2018
Dec
Mar
2019
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
benchmark Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index, which is up 10.24% year to date.
For now, I see inflation remaining at bay and lower interest rates for months to follow. This sets up our model portfolios and new recommendations to continue generating strong income and gains to come. Read on for some specific recommendations and highlights from our portfolios.
Proven Growth & Income
Look to Gold for Growth & Income
With lower inflation and falling interest rates, I like gold right now. On its own, it offers no yield. Worse, it costs money to hold it. Generally, investors that buy gold bake in a loss if the price of the metal goes nowhere. So, I'm not making this recommendation lightly.
Gold must be stored somewhere, and storage costs money. On top of that, there's the opportunity cost of what you could be earning in a money market or from Treasury Bills.
For me to justify buying and owning a gold security, there have to be good reasons for prices to rise above storage and opportunity costs. And I think there are good reasons for that to be the case right now.
Mining Gold Prices
Two of the major drivers of gold prices are interest rates and the value of the US dollar. Since gold for US investors is priced in dollars, if the dollar slides--all things being equal-- gold will tend to rise. And because interest rates provide the opportunity cost to hold it, falling rates means gold is cheaper to own.
The US dollar has been stronger against most of the major currencies of the world. But the dollar is highly
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2
Profitable Investing | August 2019 | profitableinvesting.
2018
2019
impacted by changes in short-term
Spot Gold (Blue) & Bloomberg US Dollar Index (Black)
interest rates, and falling rates will drive the dollar lower. If you look at the relationship between the dollar and gold, you can see that during the Federal Reserve's tightening last year, the dollar was stronger and gold was lackluster for much of that year.
That was until the fourth quarter when stocks took a tumble and, with that, another of the opportunity costs to holding gold. As the dollar slipped into early 2019, gold continued to rise, and the same relationship has played
1450 1450 1423.15 142134.1050 1400
1350 1350
1300 1300
1250 1250
1200 1200
2.80 2.80
2.70 2.70
2.60 2.60
2.50 2.50
2.40
2.40 Last Price
GOLDS Comdty (L1) La1s4t2P3r.i1c5e
2.30
GUSO0L0D0S3CMomIndteyx((LR11)) 14232.1258 US0003M Index (R1) 2.28
22..3208 2.28
out in recent weeks as well. Furthermore, if you look at short-
Sep
Dec
Sep
2018 2018
Dec
Mar
Jun
Mar
2019 2019
Jun
term US dollar interest rates, as
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
measured by the three-month London
Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), you
Spot Gold (Blue) & US Dollar Three-Month LIBOR Rates (Black)
can see that gold muddled along for
much of 2018 as LIBOR rose. But in 2019, LIBOR has been slipping and sliding while gold has been on the rise.
Global Uncertainty Bolsters Gold
1450 1450 1423.91 142134.9010 1400
1350
1210 1210
1200 1200 1198.44
US interest rates and the dollar
1350
11119908.44
are just two of the major factors in
1300
1190
pricing gold. In addition, gold is
1300
getting buying attention as the rest
1250
1180 1180
of the globe remains in less desirable
1250
economic conditions.
1200
Europe and parts of Asia are in
1200
Last Price
GOLDS Comdty (L1) La1s4t2P3r.i9c1e
1170
BGBODLDXYS ICnodmexdt(Ry 1(L)1) 1412938.9414
1170
economic trouble and show little
BBDXY Index (R1) 1198.44
progress in their core economies. They're also facing many political headwinds.
Sep
Dec
Sep
2018
Dec
2018
Mar
Jun
Mar
2019
Jun
2019 Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
Specifically, in key European and Japanese markets, interest rates are actually negative, with depositors paying rather than receiving interest.
That has extended further into the bond markets, with government and an increasing number of corporate bonds having negative yields. That means bonds cost money to hold, and that is helping gold demand outside of the US.
Back in the US, politics and the 2020 elections are fully engaged and are presenting their own challenges, while investors and strategists are plotting alternatives as we get closer and closer to November of next year. Gold tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty.
the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has its of the profits from its gold revenues. That
underlying charges adding up to a 40 equates to a dividend yield of 1.11%,
basis points (0.40%) per year, and it which has been on the rise in actual
doesSnP'DtRpPaoyrtfoaliopInetenrmnyediiante TdeiavmidCoerpnodraste. Bond ETF distributions over the past five years by
exSpooSiViVSSsaaPIhhunnDaaggfrRrruueeoeaaPssurrotPPddrnorrtTTfeedoaaffgleexxior-r-aorrEEeeIxxlnddbdeetemm&&e,rmpptIIannttteccneBBdooooridmmanntwddeethSSIITnnaeeaddyacceetmuuxxrrtiiiEECottsiiTToeeFFrsstgpoEEoeTTrtaoFFtewBnond ETF
an average of 3.93% per year. That's n2o.5t0 a big yield, but it's far better than GLD2.,50
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV). which will cost you 40 basis points. 2.00
FNV isn't a mining company. It long
Franco-Nevada stock is proving 2.00
ago figured out that mining wasn't the to be a great way to own gold. Since1.50 most profitable and predictable way to September 11 of last year to late Jul1y.,50
cash in on gold. Instead, the company acquires and holds royalty interests
FNV has generated a total return 1.00 of 54.66% against GLD's return of 1.00
from gold producers and also owns
18.64%. That's a 193.24% better 0.50
proceeds from gold mining companies. return. And over the past five years0,.50
This means that it doesn't have to buy and run mines, so it avoids all
FNV has outperformed GLD by a 0.00 total return margin of 791.64%. 0.00
of the costJJsuunno77f capitaJJluuennq1144uipmenJJtuunna22n11d 2019
Jun Jun
22F88 NV
is
JJauullb88uy
in
thJJuuell
11N55 iche
associated uncertainties to the busine2s0s1.9 Investments portfolio under $91.00,
A Better Way to Own Gold
It just collects cash from gold produc-
As I noted earlier, holding gold comes with costs. Along with storage costs, it costs commissions to buy and sell gold. Even the leading gold ETF,
tion by its tenants. When gold prices
rise, the company makes more revenue. WhenVVaagnnggouulaadrrddpRHHreiiggiachhleEDDssiivvtaiifddtaeelnnElddT,FYYtiiheellddeEEcTToFF mpany makeVsanlegusasr,dbURuteialtitliiEetstsEatTeiFlElTmF akes money.
AnVdanigtuparadyUInstfioliirttimsesastEihoTnaFrTeechhonoldloegyrsETtFheir cut
EVannegrguyarSdelIencfotrSmeacttiornSTPeDchRnFoulongdy ETF
Profitable Investing | August 2019 | profitableinvestingEVVaan.innenggrgvuuyeaarrSsddetlHHoeeercaaptllSttlhhaeccCCteaaorr.eecSEEoPTTmDFFR Fund
ideally in a taxable account.
One last word on FNV: Current
Canadian and US tax treaties have 14 Canada pledging not to withhold incom14e taxes on US individual investors holdin11g22 Canadian stocks in retirement accounts1,0
10
883
6 6
Sep
Dec
2018
Mar
Jun
2019
which makes FNV eligible for tax-free accounts. However, I am listing it as eligible for taxable accounts, because there is no guarantee that this tax policy won't change.
More Growth & Income
Buy High Yield Corporate Bonds at Big Discounts
US inflation is low and shows all indications of remaining so. Shorterterm rates have come down even though the FOMC has yet to make headline cuts in its target range for the federal funds rate. Meanwhile, the FOMC and the Fed have taken other steps to boost liquidity and to affect market interest rates.
Looking around the world, many major global economies are in worse shape. Inflation in Japan and much of the European Union (EU) is even lower. And the markets are driving interest rates into negative territory in an effort to encourage spending, meaning depositors pay banks to hold cash.
In the US bond markets, yields are still positive, but they're falling. And falling yields mean bond prices are rising.
That's why I want you to dive deeper into the US corporate bond market. This month, I have a new closed-end bond fund that's paying a current yield of 6.11% and is priced at a steep discount to its bond holdings (net asset value). That means that you can buy corporate bonds paying multiples more than US Treasuries at a big discount and in one of the better bond markets we've had in some time.
Credit Where Credit is Due
The key to investing well in the US bond market right now is to understand that lower rated bonds are like undervalued stocks. The market is mispricing the bonds much like it underprices stocks of improving companies. But it's not as easy as just buying lower grade bonds, just like it never works to simply buy stocks of beaten-down companies.
It takes work to look at the underlying companies behind the bonds and examine their true capabilities to
4
Franco-Nevada (FNV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Total Return
Franco-Nevada Corp 60
50
40
30
SPDR Gold Shares 20
10
0
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
2018
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2019
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield & US Aggregate Bond Indexes Total Return
1450 1423.15
1400
1350
1300
Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD
2.80
20
2.70 15
2.60 10
2.50
5
1250
2.40
1200
Sep 2016
2018 2017
Last Price
0
GOLDS Comdty (L1) 1423.15
2.30
BUloSo0m0b0e3rMg BInadreclxay(Rs1U)S Agg2T.2o8tal Return Value Unhedged USD
2.28
-5
Dec
Mar 2018
2019
Jun 2019
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
service and pay off their debts. This is biggest and best asset managers,
the same work that I do for the stocks I BlackRock (BLK). I also recommend
recommend in the model portfolios.
BLK in the Niche InvestmHi:e1n4.t7s0. 15.00
B14lo50omberg Barclays has a series
BTZ's largest allocations are to12140.50
o1f42b3e.9n1chmark bond indexes that
BBB-rated bonds, which are at the14.00
trac14k00segments as well as the overall aggregate market. The High YLoiwe:ld13.07
bottom of spectrum,
tbhreinignivnegstompepnotrgtHuri:na1di3t.ey21 f1o21110r3230...055000
Co1r3p5o0rate Index has outperformed the appreciation while controlling ris1k119.28..0404
overall bond market of the US over
And it also has a series of bonds1j1u191s0.t50
the13tr0a0iling three years, generating a return of 20.93% comparedLowto: 11th.0e6
above and just below that rating tie11r,.00 again bringing opportunity and higher
6.9102%50 return for the overall market.
yields while limiting crHei:d-i9t.4r0isk. 11-8100.00
This action is being driven by a
Despite its impressive performanc-e12o.0f0
thr1iv20i0ng economy, with consumeGrOsLDS Comdty3(L51.)5L2a1%s4t2P3ro.i9cv1eer the trailing five yea1r1s-7,104t.h00e
buying and businesses generatinBgLBowDX: Y-1I6n.d0e2x (Rf1u) nd1s1t9i8l.l44trades at a 9% discount t-o16.00
more lower
revenSueeps infSleaption
and p2r0o18fits. an2d01f8alling
AdDedc in Dyeicelds and
neBtMauaMrstsatrehtevdai2ls0uc12eo90u1(9nNtAhVas)Ju.bnJeuen n narrowing
the corporate bond market is on a run sharply since last December. This means
that should continue.
a higher stock price for BTZ even if its
That's why I'm recommending BlackRock Credit Allocation
portfolio remains given my view of
fthlaetF,brawoncnhodi-cNmhevaiasdrakuCenotrlspi.kely60
IncoSmPDeR PTorrtfuolsiotIn(tBermTeZdi)at,ewTehamicChorpisoraate Bond ETF And there is an added kicker. Boaz50
closeiSdh-aerens dPreffeurnredd &rIuncnombeySeocnureitieosfETtFhe
Weinstein and his Saba Capital have2.50
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index ETF
40
Profitable Investing | August 2019 | profitableinvesting.investorplace.c2.o0m0
30
SPDR Gold Shares 1.50
2016
2017
2018
2019
taken a large stake in BTZ and want board seats. If Saba gains seats, I see the potential for a rapid closing of the discount, which would drive prices higher. I think this is a great opportunity to add BTZ to the Total Return Portfolio for further growth and higher income.
Buy BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust (BTZ) under $14.00 in the Intermediate Credit Bonds section of the Total Return Portfolio, ideally in a tax-free account.
BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust (BTZ) Stock vs. NAV
Hi: 14.70
15.00 14.50
14.00
Low: 13.07
Hi: 13.21 13.50 13.00 12.50
12.00
11.50
Low: 11.06
Hi: -9.40
11.00 -10.00
-12.00
-14.00
Total Return Portfolio
The Total Return Portfolio continues to fare well this year. Because it's balanced for opportunities and risk control, I'm maintaining my allocation mix of 56% in stocks and 44% in fixed income, including 11% in cash.
And while it might seem like a good time to lighten up on the cash and move more into the markets, remember that we're regularly piling up dividends and interest that can be used to buy into the opportunities that are presented to us.
Lower inflation looks like it will be with us for some time, and there's strong demand to lock up yield when and where it presents itself. This is particularly the case with the bond markets.
Buy Bonds
Back in my bond trader days, my Rabbi (the term for a mentor on bond trading desks) Bill Stern always said, "Buy bonds." And this is exactly what I recommend you do as well. Bonds benefit from improved economic conditions, and if stocks pause, they're defensive as well.
The underlying economy is driving generally better business revenues, and that is aiding the credit and credibility of corporate borrowers. That, in turn, drives down new borrowing costs, further aiding profitability, and drives down yields for existing issued bonds for higher prices.
In addition, the FOMC is being accommodative and may do more. The ECB, the BOJ and other central banks have driven their interest rates into negative yields. This makes US bonds
Low: -16.02
Sep
Dec
2018
Mar
Jun
2019
-16.00
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
even better opportunities for global
of the best buys right now is a closed-
investors. We already have great bond end fund that I am recommending for investments among our holdings, such the portfolio today. TFrhanecoB-NleavacdkaRCoorpck 60
as the SPDR Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (SPIB). SPIB
Credit Allocation Income Trust (BTZ) is a $1.5 billion fund that own5s0
remains a buy under $36.00 in a tax-free account.
a great collection of lower credit rated40 bonds. It trades at a discount of 9.67%
In addition, we have individual corporate minibonds, which represent good value with high yield. Buy JMP Group 7.25% Series D (JMPD)
to its NAV, and it's also generating a 30
yield of 6.11%, whichSiPsDRbGeotltdeSrhatrheas n
most of its peers.
20
Also, there's an activist investor that
under a raised price of $26.25 in
is seeking board seats, potentially to tr1y0
a tax-free account. The bond-like
and close the discount, which may lead
securities in the preferred stocks
to a near-term windfall. Buy BTZ now0
segment of the portfolio should also
under $14.00 in a tax-free account.
beSebpoughOtc.t T20h1e8 SNoevaspaDnecCorpJoanrationFeb 7.875% Series H Preferred (SSW.
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Rate-Sens20i1t9ive Stocks
Jul
PH) is a buy under a raised price
Beyond bonds, our interest-rate-
of $25.50, and the Teekay LNG
sensitive stocks continue to perform.
Partners 9.00% Series A Preferred These include the utilities found in the
(TG14P50.PA) is a buy under a raised p1r42ic3.e15of $26.00, both in tax-free acc1o4u00nts.
The bull market for municipal bonds
Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) as well as NextEra Energy (NEE), th2e.80 individual utility with a great mix of regulated power and unregulated w2i.n70d
is also intact. Strong demand for bonds and solar operations. VPU remains is b1e3i5n0g met with little new supply due to a buy under $136.00, and NEE is2a.60
ample new tax revenues and controlled fisc1a3l00policies. Our three municipal
buy under a raised price of $209.00,
both in tax-free accounts.
2.50
bond closed-end funds are still great
Regarding real estate investment
valu12e5s0, as each still trade at discounts to trusts (REITs), lower rates make for 2.40
their underlying bond holdings. Each of loweLrasitnPtreicreest costs, and the bigger
ttohtea1ml20rh0eatusrgnesnseirnacteedbehiunggeaddoduebdlein-dAGUigSOp0iLtr0Di0Sl3CMomInddteyxtw(a(LRxi1t1)-h)ad1lo4v2wa32n..e12tr58aignefdladtiiovnidaennddsloawreerwmoratrhkem2t2.o.320r8e
2018. BuySepthe BlackRock MuDnecicipal
yieldsM.arI continue to favoJrumn y long-term
Income Trust II (B20L18E) under a raised recommendati2o0n19in W.P. Carey (WPC),
price of $15.00, the Nuveen AMT-Free as this large, diverse and well-run REIT
Municipal Credit Income Fund (NVG) continues to up its dividend distributions.
under a raised price of $16.50 and
WPC remains a buy under $85.00 in a
the Nuveen Municipal Credit Income taxable account.
Fun14d50(NZF) under a raised price of
Our newer portfolio member w12it1h0 a
$114623.4.901, all in taxable accounts.
similar net lease operation, Medical
B14u0t0, as I mentioned previously, one
Properties Trust (MPW), has a pure
1200
Profitable Investing | August 2019 | profitableinvest1i3n5g0.
1198.445
1190
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