Minutes from the BH-8 Reunion - Bylo
Oct 26, 2010 · Figure 9 [of the Vanguard publication] provides projections of the total bond market returns. The center of the distribution is 23% probability of 3.5%-4% returns. The graph shows a 21% probability of 3.0%-3.5% returns and a 19% probability of 4.0%-4.5% returns. But I don’t believe it. Monte Carlo does not work. ................
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