Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 30, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Dow & S&P 500

1-4

September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

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Dow & S&P 500

45040 36040

27040

Figure 1.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (ratio scale)

18040

9040

45040 Sep 36040

27040 18040

9040



40

40

1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

Figure 2.

6004

5004 S&P 500 INDEX 4004 (ratio scale, monthly)

3004 2004

1004

6004

Sep

5004 4004

3004

2004

1004



4

4

1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

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Dow & S&P 500

50040 40040

30040

Figure 3.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE* WITH 4%-6% CAGR PATHS (base period price Dec 1917 = 74.38, ratio scale)

20040

10040

Latest (33844)

50040

40040

6%

Sep

30040

20040

5% 10040

4%



40

40

1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027

* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: The Wall Street Journal.

Figure 4.

7519

7519

6019 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS* AVERAGE 2%-6% CAGR PATHS

6019

4519 (base period price Dec 2016 = 19,763, ratio scale divided by 1000)

4519

3019

3019 6%

1519

1519 5%

4%

3%

2%



19

19

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072 2077 2082 2087 2092 2097 2102 2107 2112 2117

* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: Yardeni Research Inc.

Page 2 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

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Dow & S&P 500

50040 40040

30040

Figure 5.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE* WITH 2%-6% CAGR PATHS (base period price Dec 1920 = 75.09, ratio scale)

20040

10040

DJIA Index (33844) Index/CPI (2456)

50040

6%

40040

Sep

30040

20040 5%

10040

4%

3% 2%



40

40

1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

* Compounded monthly using base value. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Wall Street Journal.

200009 150009 100009

50009

Figure 6.

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX WITH 6% TO 11% CAGR GROWTH PATHS

(base period Dec 1935 = 14.96, ratio scale)

S&P 500 Total Return Index* (93770) Total Return Index/CPI** (4763)

11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6%

200009 150009 Q2 100009 50009

Q2



9

9

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

* Includes reinvested dividends. ** Using last month of quarter CPI. Compounded monthly using base value.

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 3 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

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Dow & S&P 500

Figure 7.

60.05

45.05 S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE*

30.05

(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)

15.05

5004 Q2 4004

3004 2004

1004

S&P 500 Reported EPS (48.4) S&P 500 Index (4445.5)



.05

4

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25

* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 4 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 and DJIA 1921-Now

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