Monday, March 6, 2017 Today’s Futures Closes

Today's Futures Closes:

Monday, March 6, 2017

Mar 17 Corn May 17 Corn July 17 Corn Sep 17 Corn Dec 17 Corn Mar 17 Oats Dec 17 Meal Dec17 SB Oil Jun 17 Cattle May 17 Feeder Jun 17 Hogs

$3.7275 $3.785 $3.855 $3.915 $3.98 $2.64 $329.8 $34.85 106.275 122.200 76.750

-2.0 -2.25 -1.75 -1.5 -1.25 +3.5 -0.8 -0.09 -0.475 -0.200 +0.300

Mar 17 Soybeans May 17 Soybeans Jul 17 Soybeans Nov 17 Soybeans Jan 18 Soybeans Nov 17 Rapeseed

Mar 17 Cotton May 17 Cotton Dec 17 Cotton

Jan 17 Rice Nov 17 Rice

$10.2675 $10.3725

$10.46 $10.2175 $10.2675

$511.3 $78.39 $79.11 $75.44 $957.5 $1020.5

-0.25 -0.25 unch -0.25 unch -1.0 +1.11 +1.12 +0.50 -1.0 -1.0

Mar 17 CH Wheat July 17 CH Wheat Mar 17 KC Wheat July 17 KC Wheat Mar 17 MN Wheat Sep 17 MN Wheat Mar Dollar Index

May Crude Oil June Gold March S&P

Mar Dow Jones

$4.3825 $4.73

$4.6425 $4.8575 $5.3125 $5.5775 101.660 $53.72 $1229.8 2377.30 20954

+4.5 +4.75 +2.25 +2.5 -5.75 -2.75 +0.112 -0.06 unch -3.90

-27

(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Today's trade was pretty dull, with the only real happening being short-covering in wheat & selling corn. Friday's Commitment of Traders Report showed managed funds still short 55,000 contracts of wheat, while long 82,000 contracts of corn, long 100,000 contracts of cotton, & long 132,000 contracts of soybeans. So today appeared to be about evening some up. Funds ended the day net sellers of 7,000 contracts of corn & buyers of 2,000 contracts of wheat. The chart at right shows the July wheat ? July corn spread, which appears to be trending higher but remaining under $1.00. I don't see this spread having a lot of strength due to the amount of wheat in the US & world that needs to compete as a feed grain. But world wheat demand is also improving, which has helped this spread.

The HOT market right now continues to be cotton! Though ending stocks numbers don't necessarily support it, continued growth in export demand has seen funds continue to add to their long positions, with their long position

This Thursday USDA will release its March Supply/Demand Report. The trade expects only slight cuts to US ending stocks. But the bigger interest will be in what USDA predicts for changes in South American crops. ABARE in Brazil will also release its updated Brazilian production estimates Thursday as well.

of 103,000 contracts 2 weeks ago the largest ever! RSI's of 65 on May cotton & 73 on December cotton show that this market is nearing "overbought" status. I still like long put / short call spreads to protect new crop cotton.

From The Hueber Report's Jake Wiener on increasing volatility in December corn futures: "We've been lulled to sleep as the bear forced us into hibernation this winter...but now be aware that grain markets tend to trade in a much wider range (high to low/low to high) as we move into summer, starting with an average .27 ? in March to peak of June @ .63 1/2. So on average Dec corn has average just over .27 ct per bushel, so given Dec 17 corn on 3/1 as had a low of $3.92 1/2 and a high of $4.01 ? we could guesstimate the follow:

$3.92 1/2 + .27 1/4 = $4.19 3/4 $4.01 ? - .27 1/4 = $3.74 ? Something tells me the week leading into the Planting Intentions Report (3/27 ? 3/31) could be our most volatile weeks of trade!"

And regarding volatility on November soybeans, Jake shared: "At least for the past 3 years, March hasn't quite shaken off the winter blues as far as volatile trade. Not that .56 cents movement from high to low or low to high is quiet trade, but the fireworks really don't get started until April (.72 ?)/May (.73) and with the big boom coming in June ($1.26) and July ($1.37). So on March 1st the low was $10.17 ? - so if we were to add .55 ? = $10.73 ? might be the high end of the monthly range? Conversely taken high of $10.33 on March 1st, if we were to subtract .55 ? = $9.77 ? here might be the low end of the monthly range? And to be honest either SIDE could come about with the Planting Intentions numbers on March 31st - ALL IN ONE TRADE DAY..."

This is also the reason that Price Select for the period of June/July usually tends to work, since volatility during that timeframe typically means higher prices. Price Select gives you more guaranteed dollars with your revenue policy if the average futures price in the month selected is higher than the February & October averages. This doesn't always mean you will collect ? that depends how good your yields are ? but getting a higher guarantee could allow you to cover your cost of production, which is the goal with this program. With fewer acres of corn expected to be planted this year, it seems to me that December corn might have some potential upside in the months ahead, esp if we get any kind of weather scare.

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. CGB Diversified Services, Inc is a registered introducing broker and a member of the NFA. Except as otherwise indicated DS does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of DS. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, DS or its affiliates may have positions in, and effect proprietary transactions in, futures, options, securities or other financial instruments which may be referred to herein. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract,

option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange. Diversified Crop Insurance Services is a company of CGB Enterprises, Inc. and is an equal opportunity provider. Diversified Services Marketing Group / Rich Morrison 1610 West Lafayette Ave Jacksonville, Illinois 62650 (217) 479-6012

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download