The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019

[Pages:239]THE STATE OF

FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION

IN THE WORLD

SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS

AND DOWNTURNS

This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Required citation: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2019. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome, FAO. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.

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COVER PHOTOGRAPH ?Shutterstock/Valeriya Anufriyeva

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. Young woman selling fruit at a street market.

ISSN 2663-8061

2019

THE STATE OF

FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION

IN THE WORLD

SAFEGUARDING AGAINST ECONOMIC SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2019

CONTENTS

FOREWORD METHODOLOGY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS KEY MESSAGES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

vii

ANNEXES

121

x

xi

ANNEX 1A

xiii

Statistical tables to Part 1

122

xiv

xvi

ANNEX 1B Methodological notes to statistical tables

148

PART 1

FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION

ANNEX 2

AROUND THE WORLD IN 2019

1

Methodologies Part 1

159

1.1 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity 3

1.2 Progress towards global nutrition targets

27

ANNEX 3

PoU change point definitions, methodology

1.3 Towards an integrated understanding of food

and country lists

165

security and nutrition for health and well-being 42

1.4 Conclusions

46

ANNEX 4

Economic growth and change in PoU

PART 2

between 2011 and 2017

169

SUSTAINED ESCAPES FROM FOOD INSECURITY

AND MALNUTRITION IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC

SLOWDOWNS AND DOWNTURNS

49

ANNEX 5 The main drivers of crisis-level acute

2.1 Economic slowdowns and downturns

food insecurity in 2018

176

and their impact on food security and nutrition 51

2.2 Commodity dependence and its relevance

ANNEX 6

for food security and nutrition

61

Commodity dependence definitions

and country lists

178

2.3 Nexus between economic growth,

poverty, and food security and nutrition:

ANNEX 7

the role of inequality

79

Glossary

185

2.4 Policies for achieving sustainable escapes

from food insecurity and malnutrition in the

NOTES

191

context of economic slowdowns and downturns 102

2.5 Conclusions

118

| ii |

TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES

TABLES

1 Prevalence of undernourishment

(PoU) in the world, 2005?2018

8

2 Number of undernourished people in the world, 2005?2018 9

3 Prevalence of moderate or severe

food insecurity, and severe food

insecurity only, measured with the

Food Insecurity Experience Scale,

2014?2018

15

4 Number of people experiencing

moderate or severe food insecurity,

and severe food insecurity only,

measured with the Food Insecurity

Experience Scale, 2014?2018

18

5 Association between food

insecurity and various forms of

malnutrition: cross-country analysis

based on national data

44

6 Association between food

insecurity and overweight or

obesity in different age groups:

micro-level data analysis from

selected countries

45

7 Association between household food insecurity, child stunting and wasting, and anaemia in women of reproductive age: micro-level data analysis from selected countries 46

8 Economic shocks were significant

secondary and tertiary drivers of

food crises in 2018

60

9 High levels of commodity-export

and -import dependence negatively

affect food security

67

10 Government spending on social and health sectors and UHC coverage in high commodity-dependent countries 76

11 Coping strategies, their

availability in times of economic

slowdowns and downturns and

possible negative effects

78

12 Multisectoral policies for

reducing poverty, and the constraints

that must be overcome to improve

food security and nutrition

116

A1.1 Progress towards the Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs): Prevalence

of undernourishment, moderate or severe

food insecurity, selected forms of

malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding

and low birthweight

122

A1.2 Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Number of people who are affected by undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition; number of infants exclusively breastfed and number of babies born with low birthweight 135

A2.1 Definition of variables and sources

160

A2.2 Definition of variables

and sources

162

A2.3Results

162

A2.4 Malnutrition indicators by age/sex class (dependent variables)

163

A2.5 Independent variables 164

A3.1 Countries with an increase in PoU change point corresponding to economic slowdowns or downturns, years 2011?2017 166

A4.1 Descriptive statistics of PoU

and economic growth between

2011 and 2017

172

A4.2 Regression of the change

in PoU and economic growth

between 2011 and 2017

173

A4.3 Regression of the change in PoU between 2011 and 2017 and the three drivers of PoU increase 174

A4.4a Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU ? drivers regressed separately for each income group 175

A4.4b Estimated coefficients of the regressions between the change in PoU (between 2011 and 2017) and the three drivers of PoU ? drivers regressed together for each income group 175

A5.1 Countries and territories

with food crises in correspondence

with economic shocks, 2018

176

A6.1 Definition of country commodity-export and commodity-import dependence

179

A6.2 Countries and territories by

typology of primary commodity

dependence (1995?2017)

179

A6.3 Countries with economic slowdowns or downturns in correspondence to an increase in PoU change point and/or affected by food crises

180

FIGURES

1 The number of undernourished

people in the world has been on

the rise since 2015, and is back to

levels seen in 2010?2011

6

2 Undernourishment is rising

rapidly in Western Africa

10

| iii |

TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES

3 Undernourishment increases

sharply in countries affected by

conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

10

4 Droughts are one of the

factors behind the recent

increase in undernourishment in

sub-Saharan Africa

11

5 Western Asia is the only

subregion in Asia where

undernourishment is on the rise

12

6 Undernourishment is on the rise in Western Asian countries affected by popular uprisings in the recent past 12

7 Increasing undernourishment in South

American countries is putting upward

pressure on the Latin America and the

Caribbean regional average

13

8 The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

shows a significant increase in the

prevalence of undernourishment in

recent years

13

9 Even though Asia still predominates,

more than thirty percent of the

undernourished in the world live

in Africa

14

10 Over the past five years

(2014?2018), total levels of food

insecurity have been on the rise at the

global level, mainly due to increases

in Africa and Latin America

19

11 The concentration and

distribution of food insecurity by

severity differs greatly across the

regions of the world

20

12 As the country level of income falls, the prevalence of food insecurity increases and so does the proportion of severe food insecurity over the total 21

13 The numbers of undernourished

and of food insecure have been on

the rise in recent years, after a

decade-long decline in extreme

poverty and undernourishment

22

14 In every continent, the prevalence of food insecurity is slightly higher for women than for men, with the largest differences found in Latin America (2016?2018 three-year averages) 23

15 Progress on malnutrition is too

slow to achieve the 2025 and 2030

global nutrition targets

29

16 Stunting, wasting and overweight

still impact the lives of far too many

children under 5 years

30

17 Overweight prevalence increases

over the life course and is highest

in adulthood

33

18 Across all regions, the prevalence

of overweight is increasing in all age

groups, with particularly steep trends

among adults and school-age

children, including adolescents

34

19 The increase in prevalence of

obesity between 2000 and 2016

has been even larger than that

of overweight

35

20 The gap between urban and

rural areas in mean body mass

index is closing

36

21 Examples of policies and programmes aimed at preventing or reducing overweight and obesity 39

22 Real GDP per capita growth has

been uneven since the 2008?2009

sharp global downturn

53

23 Consecutive years of economic

slowdowns and downturns since

2011 in many subregions

54

24 PoU increasing change points

associated with the occurrence

of economic slowdowns and

downturns

55

25 Low-income countries face higher increases in hunger as a result of decreases in economic growth (between 2011 and 2017) 58

26 Commodity prices (though high) fell year on year from 2011 to 2016 63

27 Many low- and middle-income

countries are high commodity-dependent

countries

65

28 Between 2003 and 2017, high

commodity-dependent countries faced

steeper declines in economic growth

compared to low commodity-dependent

countries ? for those with rising hunger

the situation was even worse

66

29 Potential negative impacts of

international commodity price reductions

on food security and nutrition in

commodity-dependent economies:

transmission channels

69

30 Falling commodity prices triggered a devaluation of the Colombian and Chilean currencies 71

31 Prevalence of undernourishment

(PoU) and child stunting rates are

correlated with extreme poverty at

the country level

87

32 High levels of child stunting

are not only found in the poorest

households

88

| iv |

33 Most of the world's extreme

poor now live in Africa, but the

majority of the world's hungry and

children affected by stunting live

in Asia

89

34 High and persistent levels of

income inequality in low- and

middle-income countries

92

35 Income inequality is rising in

nearly half the countries of the world,

including in several low-income

countries and some middle-income

countries

93

36 Some countries have reduced

income inequality, while for others

it has worsened

94

37 Inequality in the distribution of agricultural land is high in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa 98

BOXES

1 Two indicators for SDG Target 2.1 to monitor progress on ending hunger and ensuring access to food for all 4

2 Revised series of estimates of

the prevalence of undernourishment

and projections for 2018

7

3 Computing FIES-based estimates so that they are globally comparable 16

4 How do estimates of food insecurity

compare to other important indicators

of human development?

25

5 Different food security assessments

for different objectives

26

6 Overweight and obesity and

the effect of malnutrition throughout

the life cycle

32

7 Risk factors for overweight and

obesity in school-age children

38

8 Double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition in the context of humanitarian assistance 41

9 What are economic slowdowns

and downturns?

52

10 Why did world hunger not

rise during the global food and

financial crises?

56

11 What is commodity dependence

and how is it measured?

64

12 Economic slowdown and the cost of basic food in Colombia 73

13 Explaining poverty and food

security and nutrition trends in China

and India: the pattern of growth

and initial inequalities

82

14 Addressing inequality in the

context of economic growth in

Brazil ? a way out of hunger

and malnutrition

95

15 Increasing opportunities for indigenous populations is key to nurturing their dietary diversity

100

16 Gender dimensions of

inequality in agriculture and

rural areas

101

17 Social protection is critical for

food security and nutrition, especially

during economic slowdowns

and downturns

105

18 Homegrown school feeding as a way to prevent undesirable coping strategies

106

19 Boosting small-scale farming

for diversification and market

integration in Sao Tome and

Principe, and Senegal

111

20 Trade policy, food systems, and food security and nutrition 113

| v |

TAJIKISTAN Fresh Tajik puff cakes being prepared as part of a project supporting inclusive agriculture and food security initiatives. ?FAO/Nozim Kalandarov

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