Citrus: World Markets and Trade - USDA

[Pages:13]July 2023

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Citrus: World Markets and Trade

Chile Mandarin Production and Exports Estimated to Rebound

Chile mandarin/tangerine production for 2022/23 is estimated to increase by 27 percent to 215,000 tons, driven by new orchards reaching production and favorable precipitation leading to higher yields. In line with the increase in production, exports are estimated up 25 percent totaling 180,000 tons. In Chile, the marketing year starts in April with the beginning of the harvest season. Chile exports from April until December, peaking in September. The top export market is the United States accounting for over 95 percent of exports. Chilean consumption is estimated at 33,000 tons, which is up from 2021/22 but average for the last four years.

1,000 Metric Tons

Chile Mandarin Production and Exports Rebound

250 Production Exports

200

150

100

50

0

Due to high profits, mandarin/tangerine area planted nearly tripled since 2014/15 growing from 3,996 hectares to an estimated 11,184 hectares in 2022/23. Specifically, the W. Murcott variety became a viable alternative to replace other crops such as oranges or tables grapes, which are less profitable than mandarins, or avocados, which are sensitive to cold temperatures and excessive irrigation. The Coquimbo region is the top mandarin production region in Chile, holding 5,309 hectares, which represents 47.4 percent of area planted. The O'Higgins and the Valparaiso regions, in the central part of the country, hold 21.9 percent and 20.7 percent of the area planted, respectively. Area planted in all mandarin/tangerine producing regions grew in the past three marketing years and is projected to increase around 1,000 hectares per year. Chilean official data for area planted is updated only once every three years for each region.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

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Tangerines/Mandarins

Global tangerines/mandarins production for 2022/23 is estimated down 900,000 tons to 36.9 million with declines in China and Morocco due to unfavorable weather. Consumption is expected to be lower with the reduced supplies. Exports are also estimated down with one-third fewer exports from Morocco due to the drop in production.

China production is estimated down 2 percent to 26.5 million tons due to lower yields, but exports are forecast higher. Consumption is down with the decrease in production and higher exports. Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to remain the top export markets.

EU production is estimated down 4 percent to 3.0 million tons as higher production in Greece due to favorable conditions during fruit set is not enough to offset lower production in Spain due to unfavorable warm temperatures during the summer. Consumption is estimated lower in line with the reduction in production. Imports are projected down while exports are expected to decrease with the reduced supplies. Morocco and South Africa are anticipated to remain the leading import suppliers.

Turkey production is estimated up slightly to 1.9 million tons as the bloom was less impacted than expected by freezing temperatures. While exports are projected flat, consumption is up with the higher supplies.

Million Metric Tons

Global Tangerines/Mandarins Exports

Drop in Morocco is Offset by Rise in China

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0 Others

2.5

EU

2.0

South Africa

China

1.5

Turkey

1.0

Morocco

0.5

0.0

Morocco production is estimated to shrink 32 percent to 927,000 tons due to heat stress, water scarcity, and reduced area harvested. Consumption and exports are projected to fall with the reduced production. The European Union, Russia, and the United States are expected to remain the top export markets.

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U.S. production is estimated up 23 percent to 819,000 tons due to favorable weather and higher yields in California but still the second smallest in the last 5 years. Consumption is down with estimated lower imports while exports are expected to be higher with the increased supplies.

South Africa production is estimated to rise 41,000 tons to a record 12 year high of 680,000 as good rainfall has led to sufficient water resources for irrigation in major production areas along with an increasing number of new plantings reaching full production. Consumption and exports are expected up with the higher production.

Peru production is estimated down 20,000 tons to 550,000 as a result of a delayed season and lower harvest of early-season varieties. Consumption is down with the lower production while exports are estimated flat. Nearly two-thirds of the exports are expected to be shipped to the United States.

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Oranges

Global orange production for 2022/23 is estimated 5 percent lower to 47.8 million tons as lower production in the European Union, Turkey, and the United States is only partially offset by a larger crop in Egypt. Consumption and fruit going into processing are both down with the lower production and an uptick in exports.

U.S. production is estimated to drop by over a quarter to 2.3 million tons, the lowest level in over 56 years. Yields continue to decline in Florida due to fruit drop caused by citrus greening, reduced area harvested and high winds from hurricanes. California is estimated to produce over twice as many oranges as Florida in 2022/23. Consumption and exports are flat while oranges for processing are lower with the drop in Florida production.

Million Metric Tons

U.S. Orange Production Continues Downward Trend in Florida

6.0

5.0

4.0

Florida

California

3.0

Others

2.0

1.0

0.0

Brazil production is forecast down 179,000 tons to 16.8 million as a result of an off year and thus lower fruit load per tree. However, assuming there is also a reduced early fruit drop rate due to favorable weather, there should be increased average weight of oranges harvested. Consumption is forecast to be relatively unchanged while fruit for processing is forecast lower with the reduced available supplies.

China production is projected up slightly to a record 7.6 million tons due to higher area. Consumption is estimated up with the higher production. Imports are expected up on higher domestic demand and exports are anticipated to go down as more fruit goes to consumption.

European Union production is expected to decline 13 percent to 5.9 million tons due to dry and unusually warm summer conditions in Spain and Italy. The reduced domestic availability is anticipated to be only partially offset by imports. As a result, fresh consumption, fruit for processing, and exports are

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down with the lower supplies. Egypt and South Africa are expected to continue to be the leading import suppliers.

Mexico production is estimated to drop 395,000 tons to 4.2 million due to prolonged drought in northeastern Mexico that most severely affected the states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. While fruit for processing and exports are down with the reduced production, consumption is flat.

Egypt production is estimated to rise 600,000 tons to tie a record 3.6 million tons due to increased area harvested and favorable weather during flowering which favored fruit set. Consumption and near record exports are projected up due to higher supplies with a greater share of supply expected to go towards exports to meet high global demand for the fruit. Top export markets are expected to include the European Union, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

South Africa production is estimated up slightly to a record 1.6 million tons as a result of favorable weather and slightly higher area harvested. Consumption is estimated down while exports (at a record high for the third year in a row) are estimated to grow with the greater available supplies. The European Union is expected to remain the largest export market.

Turkey production is estimated to fall 430,000 tons to 1.3 million as a freeze affected the bloom. Consumption and exports are expected to drop with the decreased supplies.

Morocco production is estimated to fall 367,000 tons to 783,000 due to reduced area harvested and lower yields caused by unfavorable weather during the growing season and water shortages. Consumption and exports are projected to drop by around one-third as a result of the lower supplies. The European Union is expected to remain the top export market.

Chile production is estimated to rise 10,000 tons to 174,000 on expected favorable weather after last year's frost and slightly higher harvested area. Consumption and exports are estimated up with the increased available supplies. The United States is expected to remain the top export market with around 90 percent market share.

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Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2022/23 is estimated 9 percent lower to 1.5 million tons (65 degrees brix). Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and the United States. Consumption is mostly flat while exports are estimated down with the reduced available supplies.

Global Orange Juice Production Forecast to Drop in All 4 Top Producers

2.5

Million Metric Tons (At 65 Degrees Brix)

2.0

1.5

Others

EU

U.S.

1.0

Mexico

Brazil

0.5

0.0

Brazil production is forecast down slightly to 1.1 million tons as fewer oranges are available for processing. Consumption is forecast to be higher as orange juice consumption has been steadily rising. Exports are down slightly with the reduced supplies and stocks are unchanged. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

Mexico production is projected to decrease by 18 percent to 176,000 tons as a result of fewer oranges available for processing. Consumption is up due to growing demand while exports are estimated to dip with the lower supplies. The United States is expected to remain the top export market.

U.S. production is estimated to fall nearly 50 percent to a record low 85,000 tons due to a drop in oranges available for processing, especially in Florida. Consumption is estimated down with the reduced production but is somewhat offset as imports are estimated to increase over 30 percent.

EU production is estimated to drop 21 percent to 64,000 tons on a reduced quantity of oranges being used for processing. Consumption is flat as exports are estimated down with the lower supplies.

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Grapefruit

Global grapefruit production in 2022/23 is estimated down 2 percent to 6.8 million tons due to unfavorable weather and reduced production in China, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States. Consumption, fruit for processing, and exports are all down with the lower supplies.

Lemons/Limes

Global lemons/limes production in 2022/23 is estimated down 11 percent to 9.1 million tons with lower production in Argentina, the European Union, Turkey, and the United States due to unfavorable weather. Lower available supplies reduce global consumption and fruit for processing with exports coming in flat.

For further information, please contact Reed Blauer at (202) 720-0898 or Reed.Blauer@.

Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular is scheduled for January 2024.

FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Citrus: World Markets and Trade circular is based on reports from FAS Overseas Posts since June 2023 and on available secondary information. Individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: .

European Union definition: includes 27 countries in the customs union (Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden).

PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available online at:

Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) U.S. Exports and Imports at:

Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Citrus website at: for additional data and analysis.

Situation and outlook information on U.S. citrus can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: Publications are available from the National Agricultural Statistics Service at:

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Oranges, Fresh: Production, Supply and Distribution in Selected Countries (1,000 Metric Tons)

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

Jan 2022/23

Production Brazil China European Union Mexico Egypt United States South Africa Vietnam Turkey Morocco Argentina Australia Costa Rica Chile Guatemala Other

Total Fresh Dom. Consumption

China European Union Brazil Mexico Vietnam Egypt United States Turkey Morocco Russia Saudi Arabia Iraq Argentina United Kingdom Guatemala Other

Total For Processing

Brazil Mexico United States European Union Egypt China Costa Rica Australia Argentina South Africa Other

Total

19,298 7,200 6,800 4,716 3,600 4,923 1,590 855 1,900 1,183 800 515 295 140 178 309

54,302

7,059 5,878 4,961 2,486

906 1,537 1,259 1,539

968 540 402 268 410 243 212 1,771 30,439

14,362 2,200 3,378 1,309 360 520 216 210 307 333 197

23,392

14,870 7,400 6,268 2,530 3,200 4,766 1,414 1,017 1,700 806 700 485 285 135 170 356

46,102

7,240 5,963 4,967 1,596 1,062 1,372 1,409 1,348

654 501 369 393 428 219 208 1,832 29,561

9,915 900

3,050 848 335 400 213 195 190 76 182

16,304

14,676 7,500 6,531 4,649 3,570 3,981 1,511 1,161 1,300 1,039 750 505 290 200 167 356

48,186

7,291 5,954 4,582 2,416 1,235 1,519 1,234 1,018

897 513 428 364 478 238 216 1,888 30,271

10,118 2,200 2,498 1,026 350 350 215 226 186 123 196

17,488

16,932 7,550 6,720 4,595 3,000 3,108 1,609 1,583 1,750 1,150 830 535 300 164 168 416

50,410

7,460 5,947 4,669 2,391 1,634 1,400 1,183 1,296

965 329 410 449 569 250 209 1,784 30,945

12,291 2,150 1,826 1,110 300 249 212 215 200 180 219

18,952

16,524 7,600 5,854 4,200 3,600 2,452 1,650 1,150 1,400 750 800 505 305 200 180 358

47,528

7,520 5,640 4,636 2,400 1,200 1,600 1,207 1,044

630 518 423 373 542 250 228 1,820 30,031

11,913 1,760 1,140 659 300 240 221 210 200 184 193

17,020

Split years refer to the harvest and marketing period, which corresponds roughly to November-October in the Northern Hemisphere.

For the Southern Hemisphere, harvest occurs almost entirely during the second year shown and the harvest and marketing period begins in the second year shown:

Argentina - January through December South Africa - February through January Australia - April through March Brazil - July through June.

Import and export totals may not equal due in part to different marketing years such as those listed above.

Jul 2022/23

none 16,753

7,600 5,856 4,200 3,600 2,288 1,630 1,583 1,320

783 623 505 305 174 168 377

47,765 none 7,565 5,470 4,690 2,398 1,618 1,600 1,168 1,068 663 518 443 418 371 250 213 1,698

30,151 none

12,090 1,760 975 831 300 220 218 210 200 155 192

17,151

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