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Census:1st modern day census in USA in 17902011: “Our census, our future”: 15th census since 1972. India’s census is the largest in world, China doesn’t conduct itUnion list subject. Conducted by Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner (MHA)2011 population estimation of 1.21 Bn growth at 1.7% per year Decadal population growth rate highest(Meghalaya, D&N) & lowest (Nagaland, Lakshadweep)4 stages of India’s population growthStagnant population: 1901-1921: minus 0.31% WW1, Drought, Epidemics, Spanish flu influenza. 1921 known as year of Demographic Divide as population just grew then onwardsSteady growth: 1921-1951: Less occurrence of famines because of rail transport. Mortality induced growth because Crude Death Ratio began to fall Rapid High growth: 1951- 1981: Fertility induced growth, known as period of population explosion (2.2% growth per year)High growth with signs of slowing down: 1981-2011: Family planning, nuclear family, high cost of livingBirth rate and Death rateCrude birth/death: Live births/death/1000 mid-year population (~20 BR, ~7-8 DR) Demographic transition: India is transition from stage 3 to stage 4 Sex ratio: Worse in Urban area; has improved since 2001 Census; expected to fall further as sex ratio between ages of 0-6 years is 25 pt. below the national averageOverall: Total- 943, Rural- 949, Urban- 929Age (0-6): Total- 919, Rural- 923, Urban- 905Total Fertility rateTotal fertility rate?(TFR)?in?simple terms refers to total?number?of?children born or likely to be born to a woman?in?her life time if she were subject to?the prevailing?rate of?age-specific?fertility in the population. TFR?of?about 2.1 children per woman?is called Replacement-level fertility?(UN, Population Division). India has TFR of 2.4Fertility rate: Live births per 1000 women in 15-49 agePopulation and Pop. DensityPopulation: Highest- UP (states), Delhi (UT), Lowest: Sikkim (States), Lakshdweep (UT)Density: Total pop/total land area (sq.km): Highest- Bihar(states), Delhi (UT), Lowest: Arunachal Pradesh (States), A&N (UT)EAG states: 8 socioeconomically backward?states?of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, referred to as the?Empowered Action Group?(EAG)?states, lag behind in the demographic transition and have the highest infant mortality rates in the countryDemographic dividendThe economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) (62.5%) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger (30%), and 65 and older (8%)). A country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. Closely linked with Dependency ratio, Population not in working age/ Population in working age (15-60 years)How higher DD can fuel economic growth: Swelling of the labour force, as more people reach working age. Increased fiscal space created by the demographic dividend to divert resources from spending on children to investing in physical and human infrastructure.Rise in women’s workforce that naturally accompanies a decline in fertility, and which can be a new source of growth. Increase in savings rate, as the working age also happens to be the prime period for saving. Additional boost to savings that occurs as the incentive to save for longer periods of retirement increases with greater longevity. Recent study by UNFPA highlights some interesting facts on the variation of DD across states and broadly classifies the states into the following 3 categories: The focus in the states where the window is closing soon will have to be on ageing and migrant-friendly policies and programs, The focus in the states where the window is open and will close in the next 10-15 years will have to be on empowering girls and women, provisioning of health, education and skill development for young people, and employment generation. The focus in the states where the window is yet to open will have to be threefold—addressing harmful practices such as child marriage, access to quality sexual and reproductive health services and family planning services to all, and provisioning of health, education, life and vocational skills to all the young peopleCurse or BoonDepends on whether the bulge in working population can be trained, and enough jobs created to employ the 10 million more people who will join the labour force every year. Lack of jobs combined with a demographic dividend will increase the share of the population that is dependent on the working population.Depends on how prepared the states that should benefit from a young population are. Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and other lagging states will experience a much bigger bulge in working population than more developed states like Tamil Nadu. Unfortunately, the less-developed states are also the least prepared to take advantage of the demographic change they will undergo. Human capital is now the fastest-growing component of India’s wealth.?Investing in people through healthcare, quality education, jobs and skills helps build human capitalHistory of Family planning in India: Family planning is the practice of controlling the number of children one has and the intervals between their births, particularly by means of contraception or voluntary sterilizationBefore independence: No specific focus1950-1960: Clinical based knowledge and research approach; demographic ratio estimation starts1960-1970: Extension/compressive coverage approach, IUCD; first targets 1970-1980: Mass vasectomy camps by IG, shift to voluntarism approach by Janta Party1980-1990: Net reproduction rate of 1; emphasis on family limitation 1990-2000: Target free approach; shift from national to region specific efforts 2000- onwards: National Population policy, participative approachNational Population Policy 2000Reproduction related: Girl Marriage @20| 2 child80% institutionalized deliveriesMMR: <100 / lakhTFR: 2.1 @2010 (2.4 currently); Stable population @2045 (at current TFR, will stabilize in 2070)Safe abortion, Sterilization, family planningHIV controlUniversal immunizationCompulsory registration of birth and deathNational Commission on Population under PM, Health Min.Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh (JSK)- society registration. Budget under Health Dept Secretary National Policy for Sr. Citizens (>60 age) 2011Mainstream concern of senior citizens, especially older womenPromote income security, pension, insurance, homecare services etc. Recognize old age citizens as countries invaluable resources and protect their rightsPromote long term savings instruments and credit activities Encourage employment in income generating activities after superannuation National Policy for Youth (15-29 age – 27.5%) 2014 UN definitionsYoung people: 10-24 yearsYouth: 15-24 yearsAdolescents: 10-19 yearsObjectivesPriorityCreate productive workforce that can make sustainable contribution to India’s economic developmentEducationSkilling and EmploymentEntrepreneurshipDevelop a strong and healthy generation equipped to take on future challengesHealthHealthy lifestyleSportsInstill social values and promote community service to build national ownershipValue educationSocial entrepreneurshipFacilitate participation and civil engagement at all levels of governanceVoting and participation in politicsYouth engagementSupport youth at risk and create equitable opportunity for all disadvantaged and marginalized youthInclusive growthSocial justice ................
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