Oil product demand

Oil product demand

Ladislas Paszkiewicz

SVP Strategy & Climate

Oil demand dominated by transport and petrochemicals

Emerging markets underpinning rising demand

2015 world oil demand by use

Other uses, including refinery consumption

12%

Industry 7%

26%

Light duty vehicle

Buildings 8%

92.5 Mb/d

6% Power gen.

Transport 18%

11%

Petrochemicals

1% 6% 5%

Other

transport Marine Aviation

Heavy duty vehicle

2017 Field Trip

1

Oil demand since 2000

Growth dominated by transportation

World oil demand by sector

Mb/d

+1.7%

+0.8%

per year

+1.6%

per year

90

per year

Transportation

Petrochemicals

Industry, agriculture & non-energy

Buildings Power gen

2000

2007

2014

2017

Rapid non-OECD economic development

Clear elasticity of oil demand to price: acceleration since 2014 after oil price drop

Growth concentrated in transportation, but also petrochemical feedstock and industry

2017 Field Trip

2

More driving boosts passenger transport fuel demand

Efficiency improvements mitigate increased driving

Passenger transportation* fuel demand

Mb/d

50

+2 Mb/d

Efficiency gains

Biofuels & nat. gas

2015-40

25 EVs

More vehicle

kilometres

Demand for passenger transport: High growth in emerging countries ? 2000-15 average: +3.6%/y km driven ? Assumption: km driven to grow 3.5%/y ? 2 & 3 wheelers continue rapid growth

Regulation drives faster efficiency gains ? New car fuel efficiency +3%/y ? By 2040, new car consumption: 3-4 l/100 km

EV penetration by 2040

2015

2040

? Case considers aggressive penetration:

50% of sales, 32% of fleet

? EVs drive fewer km/y (mainly urban users)

* Light Duty Vehicles (LDV) + 2&3 Wheelers + Buses

2017 Field Trip

3

Growing road freight oil demand

Continuous increase in freight transport

Road freight transportation fuel demand

Mb/d

Load factor

+6 Mb/d

2015-40

25 Efficiency gains Biofuels, H2 EVs & nat. gas

More tonnekilometres

Growth dominated by long-haul freight ? 2000-15 average: +3.4%/y tonne-km ? Assumption: tonne-km to grow at same pace

Faster efficiency gains expected ? New truck fuel efficiency +1.5%/y ? Big-Data tools help boost load factor

Growing natural gas penetration

2015

2040

EV technology less suitable for heavy loads

and long distances

2017 Field Trip

4

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download