Seasonal Climate Forecast: October-December 2021

Seasonal Climate Forecast January ? March 2024

Issued: December 21, 2023

Contact: ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons 503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@odf.

ODA Team: Diana Walker; Andy Zimmerman; Jenn Ambrose; Taylor Harding ODF Team: Julie Vondrachek; Kristin Cody

El Ni?o vs La Ni?a

(SST Patterns in the Tropical Pacific Ocean)

Courtesy:

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

El Ni?o has become "strong"

Courtesy:

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Current Status and Forecast

The November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.8, reflecting El Ni?o conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The September ? November Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI +1.8?C) rose into the strong El Ni?o range. This index lags real-time sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which also reflect strong El Ni?o conditions.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects El Ni?o to persist through the winter then transition to ENSO-neutral next spring.

Important Note: This "Seasonal Climate Forecast" does not consider NOAA's ENSO forecast. It uses only historical and current ENSO conditions to find "analog years" that most-closely match the evolution of the current ENSO state.



Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

(1957-1958; 1964-1965; 1971-1972) La Ni?a

Nov. 2023 SOI was (-0.8)

ENSO-Neutral

El Ni?o

Nov. SOI analogs were all negative

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