FRIENDS, FOES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

STRATEGIC RETHINK

FRIENDS, FOES, AND FUTURE

DIRECTIONS

U.S. Partnerships in a Turbulent World

COR PORAT ION

Hans Binnendijk

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Preface

This report is the third in a series of volumes in which RAND explores the elements of a national strategy for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy in a fast-changing world. The initial volume in this Strategic Rethink series, Choices for America in a Turbulent World, examined the most critical decisions the next president is likely to face, and thus likely to be debated during the 2016 election campaign. It covered two global issues, climate change and the world economy; assessed potential directions for national defense; evaluated issues related to counterterrorism and cybersecurity; and explored U.S. strategic choices in three key regions, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, and East Asia.

The subsequent studies in this series take up where the initial volume left off and examine in more detail a range of long-term policy issues and organizational, financial, and diplomatic challenges that will confront senior U.S. officials now, in 2017, and beyond, including national defense, institutional reform of the U.S. system for managing national security, reducing strategic surprise, and the global economy.

This volume focuses on U.S. friends and potential foes, and analyzes how alliances and partnerships may evolve to meet the diverse potential challenges to regional and global security. It considers the degree to which the United States wishes to be assertive, to collaborate, or to retrench, given the demands of the emerging strategic environment.

This volume should be of interest to defense and foreign policy decisionmakers in the United States and allied nations, analysts, the media, the staff and advisers to the 2016 presidential candidates, non-

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iv Friends, Foes, and Future Directions

governmental organizations, and others concerned about the role of the United States and other nations in advancing global security.

This project results from the RAND Corporation's Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by philanthropic contributions from donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. Special appreciation goes to the Hauser Foundation for its generous gift in support of the project and to Rita Hauser for encouraging RAND to undertake it.

For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).

Contents

Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Figures and Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

CHAPTER TWO

The Partnership Setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 The Historical Importance of U.S. Partnerships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Global Trends Affecting U.S. Partnerships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Partnerships Increasingly Require U.S. Political Flexibility.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Alternative U.S. Approaches to Partnership Engagement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

CHAPTER THREE

Anatomy of the Potential Adversaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 North Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Salafi Jihadists. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Cooperation Among Potential Adversaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 These Adversaries Create Vulnerable Partners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Back to Bipolarity?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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