Automotive Industry Outlook - Center for Automotive …

Automotive Industry

Outlook:

Managing Volatility and Leveraging Opportunities in a Dynamic Market Environment

February 2019

Mike Wall Executive Director, Automotive Analysis +1 248 728 8400 Direct +1 616 446 6885 Mobile Mike.Wall@

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

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Big Picture: Global Automotive Outlook

Implications for the Global Automotive Industry

Countersynchronization of auto sales cycles

across world regions continues with emerging markets and

developed markets on opposite waves; wave amplitude likely to

dissipate in time

Risk of broad retreat from globalization

Trump, Mexico, China Brexit, Eurozone

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Increased risk of new disruptive

business models

"breaking the forecast"

Risk of longer-term planning volatilities

uncertainties hurt long-term planning

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World Economic Growth

Global Economic Growth has Peaked and is Vulnerable; Trade Tensions Weigh on Outlook

10.0

2016 2017

8.0

Annual Real GDP Growth (in percent)

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

World

United

States

Source: IHS Markit Data Insight

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

2018 Japan

2019 2020

World Average 2019 = 2.9%

2021-2026

Eurozone Brazil Russia

India

China

Annual light vehicle sales (millions)

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

4

Global Light Vehicle Sales

Volatility Impacts the Near-Term Outlook; Mobility Dynamics Drive Slower Growth Long Term

Annual growth (%)

120

Growth rate peaks -

5.0%

downhill from here

110

110

4.0%

Average growth 3.6%

100

92 94 94 95 97

3.0%

90 2.0%

80

1.0% 70

60

0.0%

50

-1.0%

Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Annual Light Vehicle Sale (in millions)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

5

The Changing Automotive World

Emerging Markets Outlook is Key to Growth; Limited Potential in Mature Markets

50

Mature Markets

China

Emerging Markets

45

40

35

30

25

20

Market Growth

15

2012-'15 2015-'18 2018-'26

Mature 13%

3%

-3%

10

China 31%

11%

26%

5

Emerging -10%

7%

45%

0

Note: Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

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