Trading Up ($): Trading Down ($): Last Report Time Event ...
Percent Change
Today's Events
Overnight Trading
1.00
0.50 0.00 -0.50
Asia Opens
Europe Opens
-1.00
-1.50 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Other Markets
Noteworthy Macro Events
Japan
i -2.2 % - US Futures Bounce After Nasdaq Closes At Lowest Level Since June.
China
h Closed
- Bitcoin Higher After Briefly Topping $50K.
Germany
h
0.5
- Yellen Says Failure to Address Debt Ceiling Would Cause a Recession.
UK
h 0.8
Oil
78.55 h
Gold 1757.1 i
$/Euro 0.862 h
$/Yen 111.17 h
Bitcoin 49,821 h
10-Yr 1.49 h
$0.9 -$10.5
0.00 0.2 815 0.01
Overnight Trading
Trading Up ($): AMZN (16.01), MSTR (12.75), GOOGL (8.71), BHVN (5.57), TSLA (5.47), FB (3.91)
Trading Down ($): EXPE (-4.57), COLM (-1.68), ACI (-1.3), NFLX (-1.25), SFM (-0.82), RIDE (-0.55)
Stock Specific News of Note
Ticker News CALM Announces initiatives to expand product line into longer shelf life egg products. FB Company says services are back online after yesterday's outage. JNJ Submits request for EUA for booster shot of COVID vaccine.
Analyst Actions
Upgrades Ticker Firm AOS Baird CMA Wolfe
From Neutral Underperf
To Outperf Outperf
LULU Boosts stock buyback plan by an additional $500 mln.
CWEN Evercore
Inline
Outperf
LUV Says it will require all employees to be vaccinated by 12/8.
PCAR Wolfe
Mkt Perf Outperf
PEP Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; guided growth estimates higher.
PFE NY Times reports on study that shows 90% protection against hospitalization for 6 months. TGT Will boost pay during parts of holiday season by $2 per hour. TSLA Former employee awarded $137 million for racist behavior at company.
Downgrades
Ticker Firm
ACI
BMO Capital
From Mkt Perf
To Underperf
COLM B of A
Outperf
Neutral
DLR
Credit Suisse Outperf
Neutral
HMC JP Morgan Overwgt Neutral
RIDE M Stanley Mkt Wgt Underwgt
SFM BMO Capital Mkt Perf Underperf
Initiations/Reiterations
Ticker Firm
Action
Rating
BBBY Berenberg Resumed Underperf
CHKP Wells Fargo Initiated Underwgt
EL
B of A
Resumed Buy
NKE Wedbush Initiated Outperf
RL
Wedbush Initiated Outperf
VRNS Wells Fargo Initiated Mkt Wgt
Market Timing Model
Bearish
Neutral
Bullish
Indicators/Events
Time Event 10:00 ISM Services
Estimate 60.3
Last Report Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 9/3 61.6 61.7 0.1 -0.03 Tech Util
Category Sentiment Technicals Fundamental Overall
Expected S&P 500 Return (%)
One Week Two Weeks One Month
0.16
0.24
0.64
0.28
0.42
0.62
0.22
0.39
0.76
0.22
0.32
0.69
Average (all days) 0.16
0.32
0.66
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
1
Tomorrow and Beyond
Key Major Economic Indicators Last Report
Time Event
Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P
8:15 ADP
460
9/1
-251 0.03
Key Earnings Reports
Beat Rate Raised Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales Guid. None
Price Reaction (Last 8 Reports)
Other Key Events
SPWR Will replace XEC in the S&P 400 effective 10/5. 10:30 DoE Energy Inventories GM Investor Day DOW Investor Day
Below we show seasonal trends for the next week, month, and quarter. The values at the top show median performance for the S&P 500 for each period over the last ten years and the numbers in the dials show the percentile ranks relative to all other periods in the last year. In the table, we show median performance for each sector during the upcoming week, month, and 3-month periods over the last ten years.
Market and Sector Seasonality ? Last 10 Years
One Week
One Month
Three Months
0.29%
1.82%
5.45%
50
Sector Comm Services (XLC) Cons Discret (XLY) Cons Staples (XLP) Energy (XLE) Financials (XLF) Health Care (XLV) Industrials (XLI) Materials (XLB) Real Estate (XLRE) Technology (XLK) Utilities (XLU)
71
94
Median Performance (%) From 10/5 Close...
One Week One Month Three Months
0.22
1.36
3.17
-0.65
0.39
5.09
0.48
0.84
3.12
0.15
-1.20
6.20
0.07
2.19
8.40
-0.37
3.42
4.75
0.74
2.42
7.39
0.01
1.23
6.69
1.31
0.62
0.81
0.82
3.74
6.86
0.80
2.40
-0.99
? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread
Extreme Overbought Overbought
Sep-20
Nov-20
Oversold
Extreme Oversold
Jan-21
Ma r- 21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
S&P 500 Internals
Indicator
Change
50-Day Moving Avg Spread i
10-Day A/D Line
h
# of Overbought Stocks
i
# of Oversold Stocks
h
P/E Ratio
Trailing
i
Forward
i
Dividend Yield
h
Current One Week Ago
-3.2 % 0.0 %
-12
-145
76
127
271
153
25.75 21.43
1.38 %
26.61 21.98
1.33 %
Credit Spreads (bps) High Yield Corporate Bonds
h
320
306
h
89
86
S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage)
100 Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.
Trading Ranges: Sectors
Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago OS
N
OB
90
S&P 500
OS
N
80
70
OB
Cons Discret. OS
OB
Cons Staples OS
OS
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21 May-21
54.2
15.2 OS
Jul-21
Sep-21
Energy
OB
OB
Financials
N
OB
Health Care OS
OS
Industrials
OS
OS
Materials
OS
N
Technology OS
N
Comm. Svcs OS
N
Utilities
OS
OS
Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds
0.50
Stocks Outperforming Bonds
Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities
Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago OS
N
OB
0.40
$/Euro
OB
OB
$/Yen
OB
OB
0.30
2-Year
OS
OS
10-Year
OS
OS
0.20
Gold
N
OS
Silver
OS
OS
0.10
Copper
N
N
0.00
-0.10 Oct-20
Dec- 20
Bonds Outperforming Stocks
Feb-21 Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Crude Oil
OB
OB
Heating Oil OB
OB
Gasoline
OB
N
Natural Gas OB
OB
For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
2
Yesterday's Movers
Average Return (%)
Next Day
Next Week
Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up
CEIX 13.4 19 0.4 47.4 -1.7 52.6
PVAC 10.7 38 0.7 50.0
1.2 50.0
CPE 6.9 121 1.6 47.9
5.4 54.5
PDCE 6.7 87 0.3 47.1
0.1 49.4
RGNX -19.7 11 3.4 72.7
4.1 72.7
SLVM -15.1 0 n/a n/a
n/a n/a
PCRX -13.2 1 3.5 100.0 -5.8 0.0
TRHC -11.4 9 3.7 55.6
6.5 66.7
S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall
Ticker WMB VLO
Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of
Price Above 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive
27.345
3.52
-2.06
23.5
75.075
3.15
-1.79
44.4
S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise
Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of
Ticker Price Below 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive
MTD 1372.50
-2.78
4.72
66.7
? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
S&P 500: Last Six Months
4650
4550
4450
4350
4250
4359
4150
50-DMA: 4444
4050
3950
3850
200-DMA: 4131
3750 3/31
4/29
5/27
6/25
7/26
8/23
9/21
S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days
4550
4500
4450
4400
4350
4300
4250 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
Russell 2000: Last Six Months
2400
2350
2300
50-DMA: 2229
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
200-DMA: 2215
1950
3/31
4/29
5/27
6/25
7/26
8/23
2225
9/21
Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days
2304
2258
2212
2166
2120 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
Gold Future: Last Six Months
1950
1900
200-DMA: 1806
1850
1800
1750
50-DMA: 1788
1700
1726
1650 4/1
4/29
5/27
6/25
77//2266
88//2233
99//2211
Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days
1830
1810
1790
1770
1750
1730
1710 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
Long Bond Future: Last Six Months
166
163
200-DMA: 159
160
157
50-DMA: 163
154
159.44
151
4/6
5/4
6/2
6/30
7/29
8/26
9/24
Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days
165
164
163
162
161
160
159
158 9/9
9/13
9/15
9/17
9/21
9/23
9/27
9/29
Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months
15800
15300
14800
14300 13800 13300
50-DMA: 14915
14512
12800
200-DMA: 13940
12300 3/31
4/29
5/27
6/25
7/266
88//2233
99//2211
Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days
15500
15300
15100
14900
14700
14500
14300 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
DJ Transports: Last Six Months
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500 14000
50-DMA: 14549
13500
13000
200-DMA: 14276
12500
3/31
4/29
5/27
6/25
7/26
8/23
14243
9/21
DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days
14800
14600
14400
14200
14000
13800 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
Oil Future: Last Six Months
80
75
70
74.66
65
50-DMA: 70
60
55
200-DMA: 64
50 4/1
4/29
5/27
6/25
77//2266
88//2233
99//2211
Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days
78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66
9/9
9/13
9/15
9/17
9/21
9/23
9/27
9/29
BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months
11780
11116700
1160 1150
200-DMA: 1135
1150 1140 1140
1130 1130
50-DMA: 1148
11112200
1110
4/6
5/4
6/1
66//2299
77//2277
88//2244
1168
99//2211
BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days
1174
1170
1166
1162
1158
1154
1150
1146
1142
1138 9/9
9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from
3
sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
Morning Commentary
Overview: Crypto prices are up as S&P 500 index futures hit session highs and point to a half-percent gain at the open amidst small yield increases led by the belly of the UST curve. Energy prices have risen by 2.3% in aggregate as natural gas continues to soar in Europe. Risk appetite isn't paying much attention to a weaker backdrop as indicated by global Services and Composite PMIs from Markit. US Markit and ISM PMIs are due today along with trade data. Global Economic Scorecard
Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP) reported fiscal Q3 organic revenues up 9.0% YoY versus 6.3% forecast, beating core EPS by 3%, revenues by 4.2%, and raising full year guidance for both top-line and EPS. The results are impressive given the company is dealing with supply chain issues. Over the next couple of days we get a few other food names including Constellation Brands (STZ), Conagra (CAG), and Lamb Weston (LW) before JP Morgan (JPM) and Fastenal (FAST) kick off the earnings season proper next Wednesday.
APAC Markets: We'll discuss the RBA decision on the further on, as well as Australia's fascinating August trade data and implications for AUDUSD. The dollar was mixed versus local FX as onshore China remained closed, and regional equities were mixed with India and Taiwan up by less than 1% versus a 2.2% drop for the Nikkei and a 1.9% drop for the KOSPI. The Korean benchmark closed at the lowest levels since March 10th and the second-lowest levels of the year. Japanese stocks as measured by the broad TOPIX are now flat versus August 30th despite gaining almost 9% in the first half of September.
Europe Markets: French industrial production and man-
Massive Eurozone Price Shock In Gas
ufacturing output rose more than expected, but the out- 340
120
look for activity remains grim amidst continued increas- 290
Eurostat: Eurozone Natural Gas PPI
100
es in energy prices. As shown at right, natural gas fu-
Futures Average
tures continue to skyrocket to unheard of prices and a 240
Price (/therm)
80
Current (/therm)
complete dearth of supply from Russia. European stocks 190
60
are recovering today with the broad market up three-
140
40
quarters of a percent on 2:1 positive breadth led by
Banks (+2.2%), Tech (+1.4%), and Media (+1.4%). UK caf? 90
20
chain Greggs (ADR GGGSY) is up almost 10% after raising
40
0
full year guidance on strong August activity levels. EU-
RUSD is slightly lower while rates are little- Canada Small Business Confidence Plunges To Start The Fall
changed. Over the last two sessions, 5 year EUR 75 inflation swaps have moved back above 2% for the 70
Canada CFIB Business Barometer
first time since September 2012 and are currently 65
the highest since March of that year.
60
55
Canada CFIB: Also a quick note on Canada, where 50
small business confidence has plunged in the 45
wake of elections and the resurgence of COVID 40
despite strong vaccination rates in the country. 35
30
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
4
? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from
sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
Morning Commentary
Markit PMIs: Services activity around the world was weaker in September per Markit readings released today. Japan and Australia are bouncing back, but Europe saw a series of declines, with stronger-thanexpected flash readings generally walked back. Composite PMIs were a similar story. European composites were broadly weaker on a sequential basis. We note very high diffusion in Composite readings globally.
PMIs Broadly Rolling Over For Services Sector Around The World
Australia - Services - 45.5 vs 42.9 prior 70
Japan - Services - 47.8 vs 42.9 prior
60
US - Services - 54.4 vs 55.1 prior
Ireland - Services - 63.7 vs 63.7 prior 50
India - Services - 55.2 vs 56.7 prior
40
Russia - Services - 50.5 vs 49.3 prior
Spain - Services - 56.9 vs 60.1 prior 30
Italy - Services - 55.5 vs 58 prior
20
France - Services - 56.2 vs 56.3 prior
Germany - Services - 56.2 vs 60.8 prior 10
UK - Services - 55.4 vs 55 prior
0
Brazil - Services - Pending
Composite PMIs Are Very Diffuse, With Stronger Indices Rolling Over And Weaker Indices Hit By COVID
70
Japan - Composite - 47.9 vs 45.5 prior
UAE - Composite - 53.3 vs 53.8 prior
Saudi Arabia - Composite - 58.6 vs 54.1 prior
60
US - Composite - 54.5 vs 55.4 prior
Singapore - Composite - 53.8 vs 52.1 prior
China - Composite - Pending
50
Ireland - Composite - 61.5 vs 62.6 prior
India - Composite - 55.3 vs 55.4 prior
40
Russia - Composite - 50.5 vs 48.2 prior
South Africa - Composite - 50.7 vs 49.9 prior
Kenya - Composite - 50.4 vs 51.1 prior
30
Italy - Composite - 56.6 vs 59.1 prior
France - Composite - 55.3 vs 55.9 prior
20
Germany - Composite - 55.5 vs 60 prior
Eurozone - Composite - 56.2 vs 59 prior
Lebanon - Composite - 46.9 vs 46.6 prior
10
UK - Composite - 54.9 vs 54.8 prior
Nigeria - Composite - 52.3 vs 52.2 prior
Brazil - Composite - Pending
0
Hong Kong - Composite - Pending
Dubai - Composite - Pending
Australia - Composite - 46 vs 43.3 prior
For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward
5
? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from
sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its
accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
................
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