Trading Up ($): Trading Down ($): Last Report Time Event ...

Percent Change

Today's Events

Overnight Trading

1.00

0.50 0.00 -0.50

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

-1.00

-1.50 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Other Markets

Noteworthy Macro Events

Japan

i -2.2 % - US Futures Bounce After Nasdaq Closes At Lowest Level Since June.

China

h Closed

- Bitcoin Higher After Briefly Topping $50K.

Germany

h

0.5

- Yellen Says Failure to Address Debt Ceiling Would Cause a Recession.

UK

h 0.8

Oil

78.55 h

Gold 1757.1 i

$/Euro 0.862 h

$/Yen 111.17 h

Bitcoin 49,821 h

10-Yr 1.49 h

$0.9 -$10.5

0.00 0.2 815 0.01

Overnight Trading

Trading Up ($): AMZN (16.01), MSTR (12.75), GOOGL (8.71), BHVN (5.57), TSLA (5.47), FB (3.91)

Trading Down ($): EXPE (-4.57), COLM (-1.68), ACI (-1.3), NFLX (-1.25), SFM (-0.82), RIDE (-0.55)

Stock Specific News of Note

Ticker News CALM Announces initiatives to expand product line into longer shelf life egg products. FB Company says services are back online after yesterday's outage. JNJ Submits request for EUA for booster shot of COVID vaccine.

Analyst Actions

Upgrades Ticker Firm AOS Baird CMA Wolfe

From Neutral Underperf

To Outperf Outperf

LULU Boosts stock buyback plan by an additional $500 mln.

CWEN Evercore

Inline

Outperf

LUV Says it will require all employees to be vaccinated by 12/8.

PCAR Wolfe

Mkt Perf Outperf

PEP Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; guided growth estimates higher.

PFE NY Times reports on study that shows 90% protection against hospitalization for 6 months. TGT Will boost pay during parts of holiday season by $2 per hour. TSLA Former employee awarded $137 million for racist behavior at company.

Downgrades

Ticker Firm

ACI

BMO Capital

From Mkt Perf

To Underperf

COLM B of A

Outperf

Neutral

DLR

Credit Suisse Outperf

Neutral

HMC JP Morgan Overwgt Neutral

RIDE M Stanley Mkt Wgt Underwgt

SFM BMO Capital Mkt Perf Underperf

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm

Action

Rating

BBBY Berenberg Resumed Underperf

CHKP Wells Fargo Initiated Underwgt

EL

B of A

Resumed Buy

NKE Wedbush Initiated Outperf

RL

Wedbush Initiated Outperf

VRNS Wells Fargo Initiated Mkt Wgt

Market Timing Model

Bearish

Neutral

Bullish

Indicators/Events

Time Event 10:00 ISM Services

Estimate 60.3

Last Report Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst 9/3 61.6 61.7 0.1 -0.03 Tech Util

Category Sentiment Technicals Fundamental Overall

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

One Week Two Weeks One Month

0.16

0.24

0.64

0.28

0.42

0.62

0.22

0.39

0.76

0.22

0.32

0.69

Average (all days) 0.16

0.32

0.66

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

1

Tomorrow and Beyond

Key Major Economic Indicators Last Report

Time Event

Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:15 ADP

460

9/1

-251 0.03

Key Earnings Reports

Beat Rate Raised Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales Guid. None

Price Reaction (Last 8 Reports)

Other Key Events

SPWR Will replace XEC in the S&P 400 effective 10/5. 10:30 DoE Energy Inventories GM Investor Day DOW Investor Day

Below we show seasonal trends for the next week, month, and quarter. The values at the top show median performance for the S&P 500 for each period over the last ten years and the numbers in the dials show the percentile ranks relative to all other periods in the last year. In the table, we show median performance for each sector during the upcoming week, month, and 3-month periods over the last ten years.

Market and Sector Seasonality ? Last 10 Years

One Week

One Month

Three Months

0.29%

1.82%

5.45%

50

Sector Comm Services (XLC) Cons Discret (XLY) Cons Staples (XLP) Energy (XLE) Financials (XLF) Health Care (XLV) Industrials (XLI) Materials (XLB) Real Estate (XLRE) Technology (XLK) Utilities (XLU)

71

94

Median Performance (%) From 10/5 Close...

One Week One Month Three Months

0.22

1.36

3.17

-0.65

0.39

5.09

0.48

0.84

3.12

0.15

-1.20

6.20

0.07

2.19

8.40

-0.37

3.42

4.75

0.74

2.42

7.39

0.01

1.23

6.69

1.31

0.62

0.81

0.82

3.74

6.86

0.80

2.40

-0.99

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread

Extreme Overbought Overbought

Sep-20

Nov-20

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

Jan-21

Ma r- 21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

S&P 500 Internals

Indicator

Change

50-Day Moving Avg Spread i

10-Day A/D Line

h

# of Overbought Stocks

i

# of Oversold Stocks

h

P/E Ratio

Trailing

i

Forward

i

Dividend Yield

h

Current One Week Ago

-3.2 % 0.0 %

-12

-145

76

127

271

153

25.75 21.43

1.38 %

26.61 21.98

1.33 %

Credit Spreads (bps) High Yield Corporate Bonds

h

320

306

h

89

86

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage)

100 Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

Trading Ranges: Sectors

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago OS

N

OB

90

S&P 500

OS

N

80

70

OB

Cons Discret. OS

OB

Cons Staples OS

OS

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21 May-21

54.2

15.2 OS

Jul-21

Sep-21

Energy

OB

OB

Financials

N

OB

Health Care OS

OS

Industrials

OS

OS

Materials

OS

N

Technology OS

N

Comm. Svcs OS

N

Utilities

OS

OS

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

0.50

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago OS

N

OB

0.40

$/Euro

OB

OB

$/Yen

OB

OB

0.30

2-Year

OS

OS

10-Year

OS

OS

0.20

Gold

N

OS

Silver

OS

OS

0.10

Copper

N

N

0.00

-0.10 Oct-20

Dec- 20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Feb-21 Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Oct-21

Crude Oil

OB

OB

Heating Oil OB

OB

Gasoline

OB

N

Natural Gas OB

OB

For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

2

Yesterday's Movers

Average Return (%)

Next Day

Next Week

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

CEIX 13.4 19 0.4 47.4 -1.7 52.6

PVAC 10.7 38 0.7 50.0

1.2 50.0

CPE 6.9 121 1.6 47.9

5.4 54.5

PDCE 6.7 87 0.3 47.1

0.1 49.4

RGNX -19.7 11 3.4 72.7

4.1 72.7

SLVM -15.1 0 n/a n/a

n/a n/a

PCRX -13.2 1 3.5 100.0 -5.8 0.0

TRHC -11.4 9 3.7 55.6

6.5 66.7

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

Ticker WMB VLO

Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of

Price Above 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive

27.345

3.52

-2.06

23.5

75.075

3.15

-1.79

44.4

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of

Ticker Price Below 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive

MTD 1372.50

-2.78

4.72

66.7

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

S&P 500: Last Six Months

4650

4550

4450

4350

4250

4359

4150

50-DMA: 4444

4050

3950

3850

200-DMA: 4131

3750 3/31

4/29

5/27

6/25

7/26

8/23

9/21

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

4550

4500

4450

4400

4350

4300

4250 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

2400

2350

2300

50-DMA: 2229

2250

2200

2150

2100

2050

2000

200-DMA: 2215

1950

3/31

4/29

5/27

6/25

7/26

8/23

2225

9/21

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

2304

2258

2212

2166

2120 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

Gold Future: Last Six Months

1950

1900

200-DMA: 1806

1850

1800

1750

50-DMA: 1788

1700

1726

1650 4/1

4/29

5/27

6/25

77//2266

88//2233

99//2211

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1830

1810

1790

1770

1750

1730

1710 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

166

163

200-DMA: 159

160

157

50-DMA: 163

154

159.44

151

4/6

5/4

6/2

6/30

7/29

8/26

9/24

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

165

164

163

162

161

160

159

158 9/9

9/13

9/15

9/17

9/21

9/23

9/27

9/29

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

15800

15300

14800

14300 13800 13300

50-DMA: 14915

14512

12800

200-DMA: 13940

12300 3/31

4/29

5/27

6/25

7/266

88//2233

99//2211

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

15500

15300

15100

14900

14700

14500

14300 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

DJ Transports: Last Six Months

16500

16000

15500

15000

14500 14000

50-DMA: 14549

13500

13000

200-DMA: 14276

12500

3/31

4/29

5/27

6/25

7/26

8/23

14243

9/21

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

14800

14600

14400

14200

14000

13800 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

Oil Future: Last Six Months

80

75

70

74.66

65

50-DMA: 70

60

55

200-DMA: 64

50 4/1

4/29

5/27

6/25

77//2266

88//2233

99//2211

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 66

9/9

9/13

9/15

9/17

9/21

9/23

9/27

9/29

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

11780

11116700

1160 1150

200-DMA: 1135

1150 1140 1140

1130 1130

50-DMA: 1148

11112200

1110

4/6

5/4

6/1

66//2299

77//2277

88//2244

1168

99//2211

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1174

1170

1166

1162

1158

1154

1150

1146

1142

1138 9/9

9/13 9/15 9/17 9/21 9/23 9/27 9/29

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

3

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Morning Commentary

Overview: Crypto prices are up as S&P 500 index futures hit session highs and point to a half-percent gain at the open amidst small yield increases led by the belly of the UST curve. Energy prices have risen by 2.3% in aggregate as natural gas continues to soar in Europe. Risk appetite isn't paying much attention to a weaker backdrop as indicated by global Services and Composite PMIs from Markit. US Markit and ISM PMIs are due today along with trade data. Global Economic Scorecard

Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP) reported fiscal Q3 organic revenues up 9.0% YoY versus 6.3% forecast, beating core EPS by 3%, revenues by 4.2%, and raising full year guidance for both top-line and EPS. The results are impressive given the company is dealing with supply chain issues. Over the next couple of days we get a few other food names including Constellation Brands (STZ), Conagra (CAG), and Lamb Weston (LW) before JP Morgan (JPM) and Fastenal (FAST) kick off the earnings season proper next Wednesday.

APAC Markets: We'll discuss the RBA decision on the further on, as well as Australia's fascinating August trade data and implications for AUDUSD. The dollar was mixed versus local FX as onshore China remained closed, and regional equities were mixed with India and Taiwan up by less than 1% versus a 2.2% drop for the Nikkei and a 1.9% drop for the KOSPI. The Korean benchmark closed at the lowest levels since March 10th and the second-lowest levels of the year. Japanese stocks as measured by the broad TOPIX are now flat versus August 30th despite gaining almost 9% in the first half of September.

Europe Markets: French industrial production and man-

Massive Eurozone Price Shock In Gas

ufacturing output rose more than expected, but the out- 340

120

look for activity remains grim amidst continued increas- 290

Eurostat: Eurozone Natural Gas PPI

100

es in energy prices. As shown at right, natural gas fu-

Futures Average

tures continue to skyrocket to unheard of prices and a 240

Price (/therm)

80

Current (/therm)

complete dearth of supply from Russia. European stocks 190

60

are recovering today with the broad market up three-

140

40

quarters of a percent on 2:1 positive breadth led by

Banks (+2.2%), Tech (+1.4%), and Media (+1.4%). UK caf? 90

20

chain Greggs (ADR GGGSY) is up almost 10% after raising

40

0

full year guidance on strong August activity levels. EU-

RUSD is slightly lower while rates are little- Canada Small Business Confidence Plunges To Start The Fall

changed. Over the last two sessions, 5 year EUR 75 inflation swaps have moved back above 2% for the 70

Canada CFIB Business Barometer

first time since September 2012 and are currently 65

the highest since March of that year.

60

55

Canada CFIB: Also a quick note on Canada, where 50

small business confidence has plunged in the 45

wake of elections and the resurgence of COVID 40

despite strong vaccination rates in the country. 35

30



For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

4

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Morning Commentary

Markit PMIs: Services activity around the world was weaker in September per Markit readings released today. Japan and Australia are bouncing back, but Europe saw a series of declines, with stronger-thanexpected flash readings generally walked back. Composite PMIs were a similar story. European composites were broadly weaker on a sequential basis. We note very high diffusion in Composite readings globally.

PMIs Broadly Rolling Over For Services Sector Around The World

Australia - Services - 45.5 vs 42.9 prior 70

Japan - Services - 47.8 vs 42.9 prior

60

US - Services - 54.4 vs 55.1 prior

Ireland - Services - 63.7 vs 63.7 prior 50

India - Services - 55.2 vs 56.7 prior

40

Russia - Services - 50.5 vs 49.3 prior

Spain - Services - 56.9 vs 60.1 prior 30

Italy - Services - 55.5 vs 58 prior

20

France - Services - 56.2 vs 56.3 prior

Germany - Services - 56.2 vs 60.8 prior 10

UK - Services - 55.4 vs 55 prior

0

Brazil - Services - Pending

Composite PMIs Are Very Diffuse, With Stronger Indices Rolling Over And Weaker Indices Hit By COVID

70

Japan - Composite - 47.9 vs 45.5 prior

UAE - Composite - 53.3 vs 53.8 prior

Saudi Arabia - Composite - 58.6 vs 54.1 prior

60

US - Composite - 54.5 vs 55.4 prior

Singapore - Composite - 53.8 vs 52.1 prior

China - Composite - Pending

50

Ireland - Composite - 61.5 vs 62.6 prior

India - Composite - 55.3 vs 55.4 prior

40

Russia - Composite - 50.5 vs 48.2 prior

South Africa - Composite - 50.7 vs 49.9 prior

Kenya - Composite - 50.4 vs 51.1 prior

30

Italy - Composite - 56.6 vs 59.1 prior

France - Composite - 55.3 vs 55.9 prior

20

Germany - Composite - 55.5 vs 60 prior

Eurozone - Composite - 56.2 vs 59 prior

Lebanon - Composite - 46.9 vs 46.6 prior

10

UK - Composite - 54.9 vs 54.8 prior

Nigeria - Composite - 52.3 vs 52.2 prior

Brazil - Composite - Pending

0

Hong Kong - Composite - Pending

Dubai - Composite - Pending

Australia - Composite - 46 vs 43.3 prior



For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

5

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

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