Trading Down ($): Last Report Time Event Estimate Date Est ...

Percent Change

Today's Events

Overnight Trading

0.40

Asia Opens

0.20

0.00

-0.20

Europe Opens

Other Markets

Noteworthy Macro Events

Japan China Germany

h Closed % h 0.0 i -0.6

- Biden Authorizes Release of Reserves from SPR. - Nasdaq Futures Lower as Treasuries Sell-Off Again.

UK

h 0.1

-0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.00 -1.20 -1.40

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00

Oil

76.36 i

Gold 1790.8 i

$/Euro 0.888 i

$/Yen 114.88 #

Bitcoin 56,632 h

10-Yr 1.66 h

-$39.0 -$15.5

0.00 0.0 354 0.03

Overnight Trading

Trading Up ($): TSLA (14.13), ISPC (8.28), AADI (8.15), GS (2.74), MU (1.72), WDC (1.57)

Trading Down ($): ZM (-21.28), BBY (-15.33), A (-9.78), AMZN (-8.57), GME (-4.84), URBN (-4.12)

Stock Specific News of Note

Ticker News

A

Reported better than expected EPS on inline sales guided inline; down 5%.

ADI Reported better than expected EPS on stronger sales; guided inline.

AEO Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; stock down 3%.

AMWD Reported weaker than expected EPS and sales; stock down 2%.

Analyst Actions

Upgrades Ticker Firm ABBV Soc Gen BMBL Evercore CBRE KBW

From Hold Inline Mkt Perf

To Buy Outperf Outperf

ANF ATVI BBY BURL CMTL DKS DLTR

Reported better than expected EPS on stronger sales; ann'd $500 mln buyback; stock down 6%. Announces formation of Workplace Responsibility Committee to help eliminate harassment. Better than expected EPS and sales; lowered holiday sales forecast; stock down 10%. Reported better than expected EPS on stronger sales; gives no guidance citing uncertainty. Outerbridge releases presentation calling for overhaul of board citing poor performance. Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; raised guidance; stock down 3%. Reported better than expected EPS on inline revenues; guided inline; stock down 2%.

CPA JP Morgan

MU

Mizuho

WDC Mizuho

Downgrades

Ticker Firm

EBAY Guggenheim

VG

Baird

Underwgt Neutral Neutral

From Buy Buy

Neutral Buy Buy

To Neutral Neutral

DY Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues.

J

Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; guided inline.

KEYS MDT SJM TITN URBN ZM

Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; guided inline; stock down 2%. Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; reaffirmed full year guidance. Reported better than expected EPS and sales; raised guidance. Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; raised guidance; stock up 5%. Reported better than expected EPS on inline revenues; comps sales up 14%; stock down 10%. Reported modestly better than expected EPS and sales; guided inline; down 9%.

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm

Action

AIG

Goldman

Initiated

ALL

Goldman

Initiated

CSIQ Wells Fargo Initiated

ENPH Wells Fargo Initiated

Rating Buy Sell Mkt Wgt Overwgt

ETSY Guggenheim Initiated Buy

Market Timing Model

Bearish

Category Sentiment Technicals Fundamental Overall Average (all days)

Neutral

Bullish

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

One Week Two Weeks One Month

0.19

0.39

0.70

0.21

0.39

0.70

0.22

0.29

0.55

0.21

0.37

0.69

0.17

0.33

0.67

Indicators/Events

Time Event

Estimate Date Est

9:45 Markit US Manufact

59.3

11/1 59.2

9:45 Markit Services

59.1

11/3 58.2

10:00 Richmond Fed

10

10/26 5

THRY Will replace ECHO in the S&P 600 effective 11/24.

DDS Special $15 one-time dividend (ex date 11/26).

Last Report Act. Diff. S&P 58.4 -0.8 -0.18 58.7 0.5 0.65 12 7 0.18

Best Worst Ener C Svcs C Disc Ener Ener Indu

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

1

Tomorrow and Beyond

Key Major Economic Indicators Last Report

Time Event

Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Jobless Claims

266

11/18

8

0.34

8:30 Continuing Claims

2075 11/18 -40 0.34

8:30 Wholesale Inventories 1.1

11/10 0.3 -0.82

8:30 GDP

2.2

10/28 -0.6 0.78

8:30 Durable Goods

0.2

11/3

0.1 0.65

8:30 Personal Income

0.3

10/29 -0.7 0.19

8:30 Personal Spending

1.0

10/29 0.0 0.19

10:00 Michigan Confidence 66.8

11/12 -5.7 0.72

Key Earnings Reports

Beat Rate Raised Price Reaction Ticker Date TOD EPS Sales Guid. (Last 8 Reports) DE 11/24 AM 81% 61% 18% Price Reaction: most recent report is on the left.

Other Key Events

THRY Will replace ECHO in the S&P 600 effective 11/24. DDS Special $15 one-time dividend (ex date 11/26). SITM Will replace EBS in the S&P 400 effective 11/30. EBS Will replace UFS in the S&P 600 effective 11/30.

10:30 DoE Energy Inventories 12:00 EIA Nat Gas 13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count 14:00 FOMC Minutes

Market and Sector Seasonality ? Last 10 Years

One Week

One Month

Three Months

0.86%

2.08%

6.01%

80

77

97

Median Performance (%) From 11/23 Close...

Sector

One Week One Month Three Months

Comm Services (XLC)

0.72

2.92

5.41

Cons Discret (XLY)

1.60

1.80

7.23

Cons Staples (XLP)

0.89

2.54

2.70

Energy (XLE)

0.21

0.94

-1.62

Financials (XLF)

0.67

3.74

6.10

Health Care (XLV)

1.11

1.27

5.79

Industrials (XLI)

0.11

1.10

4.58

Materials (XLB)

0.87

1.78

4.18

Real Estate (XLRE)

0.09

0.91

6.47

Technology (XLK)

1.76

2.33

8.54

Utilities (XLU)

0.51

2.03

5.44

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread

Extreme Overbought Overbought

Nov-20

Jan-21

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

Ma r- 21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

S&P 500 Internals

Indicator

Change

50-Day Moving Avg Spread i

10-Day A/D Line

i

# of Overbought Stocks

i

# of Oversold Stocks

h

P/E Ratio

Trailing

h

Forward

h

Dividend Yield

h

Current One Week Ago

3.7 % 4.2 %

-230

567

184

251

91

52

25.71 22.47

1.29 %

25.71 22.45

1.28 %

Credit Spreads (bps) High Yield Corporate Bonds

h

324

310

h

94

91

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage)

100 Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

Trading Ranges: Sectors

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago OS

N

OB

90

S&P 500

OB

OB

80

Cons Discret. OB

OB

70

OB

Cons Staples OB

OB

60

Energy

N

N

50

Financials

N

N

Health Care N

N

40

36.8

Industrials

OB

OB

30

Materials

OB

OB

20

18.2

Technology OB

OB

10

0 Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

OS Sep-21 Nov-21

Comm. Svcs N

N

Utilities

OB

N

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

0.50

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago OS

N

OB

0.40

$/Euro

OB

OB

$/Yen

OB

OB

0.30

2-Year

OS

OS

10-Year

N

N

0.20

Gold

N

OB

Silver

N

OB

0.10

Copper

N

N

0.00

-0.10 Nov-20

Jan-21

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Crude Oil

N

N

Heating Oil

N

N

Gasoline

N

N

Natural Gas OS

N

For an explanation of the first two pages of this report, please click here.

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

2

Yesterday's Movers

Average Return (%)

Next Day

Next Week

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

VG 27.0 8 -1.6 25.0

2.6 50.0

TMST 13.0 25 -1.1 36.0 -1.9 28.0

CHS 12.4 31 0.4 54.8 -5.7 41.9

CATO 8.9 35 -0.1 57.1

0.5 62.9

CRNC -20.6 13 3.6 76.9 BLFS -10.3 7 -0.3 42.9 VCEL -8.5 51 -0.2 54.9 AMKR -8.1 41 0.7 53.7

5.6 53.8 5.2 57.1 1.2 60.8 -0.1 43.9

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

Ticker STZ

Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of

Price Above 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive

234.32

2.28

-1.15

39.5

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise

Ticker PENN

Standard Deviations Avg % Return Percent of

Price Below 50-Day Avg (One Week) Time Positive

53.12

-2.02

5.93

45.5

BIIB 252.21

-2.04

2.25

50.0

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

S&P 500: Last Six Months

4850 4750 4650 4550 4450 4350 4250 4150 4050 3950 3850

5/25

50-DMA: 4516

6/23

7/22

8/19

4683

200-DMA: 4278

99//1177 1100//1155 1111//1122

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

4762

4730

4698

4666

4634

4602

4570 11/2 11/4 11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

2550

2331

2450

2350

50-DMA: 2294

2250

2150

200-DMA: 2261

2050

5/25

6/23

7/22

8/19

9/17

10/15 11/12

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

2480

2455

2430

2405

2380

2355

2330

2305 11/2

11/4

11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

Gold Future: Last Six Months

1950

1808

1900

1850

200-DMA: 1794

1800

1750 50-DMA: 1792

1700

1650

5/25

6/23

7/22

8/19

9/17

10/15

1111//1122

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1880

1860

1840

1820

1800

1780

1760 11/2 11/4 11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

167

165

160.34

163 162 161

159

200-DMA: 158

157 156 155

153 5/28

50-DMA: 160

6/28

7/27

8/24

9/22

10/20

11/17

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

164.5

163.0

161.5

160.0

158.5 11/2 11/4 11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

16550

16050

15855

15550

15050

14550

14050

13550

13050 5/25

50-DMA: 15190

200-DMA: 14350

6/23

7/22

8/19

9/17

1100//1155 1111//1122

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

16270

16070

15870

15670

15470 11/2

11/4

11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

DJ Transports: Last Six Months

18700

17600

16739

16500 15400

50-DMA: 15394

14300

13200

200-DMA: 14867

5/25

6/23

7/22

88//1199

99//1177 1100//1155 1111//1122

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

18500

18000

17500

17000

16500

16000

15500 11/2

11/4

11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

Oil Future: Last Six Months

90

85

80

75

70

65

50-DMA: 79

60

55

5/25

6/23

7/22

8/19

200-DMA: 70

99//1177

1100//1155

76.36

1111//1122

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

86

84

82

80

78

76

74 11/2

11/4

11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

1190

1185

1180

1170

1160

1150

1140

1130

200-DMA: 1143

1120

50-DMA: 1161

1110

5/28

6/25

7/23

88//2200

99//1177 1100//1155 1111//1122

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1186

1181

1176

1171

1166

1161

1156 11/2

11/4

11/8 11/10 11/12 11/16 11/18 11/22

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

3

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Morning Commentary

Snapshot: Treasury yields are continuing to climb in the wake of the Powell nomination, while equities are trying to come back from weak price action overnight; futures currently price an opening gap down of 12 bps. Oil futures are slightly lower while natural gas trades higher and industrial commodities trade flat. Finally, the Bloomberg USD Index is at another 52-week high; the index is the furthest above its 200-DMA since April 24th of 2020. Global Economic Scorecard

Earnings: While earnings season proper is most definitely over, there are still some interesting names on the tape this morning. Zoom (ZM) reported revenue, EPS, and Q4 guidance beats last night, completing a Triple Play. The stock is still down a dramatic 10% in pre-market trading, though. Other notables this morning including Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Best Buy (BBY). DKS reported Q3 (ending October) EPS 60% above estimates with sales 10% higher than expected and full year guidance 2.7% higher than previous. Inventories were up 7% YoY (a good sign for supply chains) while e-commerce nearly doubled year-over-year. DLTR delivered a Triple Play of its own, with comp sales slightly ahead of 1.5% YoY estimated. The company is also seeing margin pressure, with gross margins the lowest in the company's history at 27.5%. The company's low-margin, low-price business model is clearly suffering in a higher inflation environment. BBY also reported a Triple Play but missed gross margins slightly; while comp sales broadly beat (especially in the US), the stock is plunging premarket amidst very high expectations.

APAC Markets: Overnight, APAC had a mixed session with the Hang Seng down 1.2%, onshore China little-changed, Korea and Taiwan lower, and Australia and India up. Japan was closed, but USDJPY hit a 52-week high as the dollar continued to gain versus local currencies. Iron ore futures traded in Singapore rose for a fourth straight session; they've risen 14% from 52-week lows last week and are trading back near $100.

Europe Markets: Energy prices continue their volatile swings with Dutch natural gas futures up 4.7% in

USD/mm BTU terms; they're trading about 6x higher than equivalently-priced US Henry Hub futures.

Day-ahead German baseload power futures are at their second-highest levels off the year (see chart at

right). Monthly, less volatile contracts are trading at less dramatic levels, but are nonetheless picking

up again. ECB commentary has been to the hawkish side this morning with Central Bank of Ireland Gov-

ernor and Governing Council member Gabs Makhlouf arguing the ECB can't be "complacent" on infla-

tion, while Dutch central bank Governor and Governing Council member Klaas Knot argues 350

German Power Prices Once Again Ramp

the PEPP asset purchase program will be wound 300

down in March and saying "if markets are right 250 on inflation, they will be right on rate hike pric- 200

Germany Baseload Power Prices, Day Ahead,

ing" as well. European equities are broadly low- 150

er in response but have climbed off session lows 100

to trade 82 bps lower on 3:1 negative breadth. 50

EURUSD is little-changed after swinging back 0

and forth, while yields bear-steepen across the -50

Eurozone.



For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

4

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Morning Commentary

Turkey: The Turkish lira is suffering a total collapse today as the currency weakens 9.2% versus the dollar; session lows were around 7:15 AM ET and there has been a bounce, but spot is off 23% in November. The catalyst today was a speech from President Erdogan doubling down on his refusal to defend the lira, along with a speech from a key ally attacking CBRT independence. Turkish equities are up in local currency terms but down almost 9% in dollars while 100y bond yields continue to climb towards their peak from 2018.

Flash PMIs: Markit updated flash manufacturing and services PMI readings for Australia, France, Ger-

many, the Eurozone, and the UK ahead of US flash PMI today. As shown below, PMI readings across

manufacturing and Services beat estimates and were generally higher in November than October. Price

Flash PMIs Beat Across The Board, Picking Up

indices across both manufacturing and services (both

70

input and output) generally rose as input cost infla-

65

tion, material shortages, and logistics costs ramped

60

55

up. Of note in the Eurozone data, the outlook for

50

both manufacturing services data deteriorated

45

40

Australia - Manufacturing - 58.5 vs 56.8 prior

France - Manufacturing - 54.6 vs 55 prior

35

Germany - Manufacturing - 57.6 vs 58.4 prior

Eurozone - Manufacturing - 58.6 vs 58.6 prior

30

UK - Manufacturing - 58.2 vs 57.1 prior

25

US - Manufacturing - Pending

amidst surging delivery times and high inflation. Therefore, while the headline data wasn't weak, it wasn't as strong as it looks after accounting for internals.

80

70

60

50

40

Australia - Services - 55 vs 45.5 prior

France - Services - 58.2 vs 56.2 prior

30

Germany - Services - 53.4 vs 56.2 prior

20

Eurozone - Services - 56.6 vs 56.4 prior

UK - Services - 58.6 vs 55.4 prior 10

US - Services - Pending

0

French Election Polling: September to Current (% Respondents)

30 Jean-Luc M?lenchon (La France Insoumise)

25

Anne Hidalgo

(Socialist)

Other Left/Socialist

20

Yannick Jadot (Green)

15

10

5

0 9/11

9/25

10/9 10/23 11/6 11/20

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche)

Nicolas DupontAignan (DLR)

Marine Le Pen (National Rally)

?ric Zemmour (Les Republicains)

All Other

French Elections: With the first round of the French Presidential election coming on April 10th, incumbent President Macron looks very likely to win. As shown at bottom left, in polling he has a commanding lead over conservative candidates and the next-closest candidate after those two is leftist Jean-Luc M?lenchon. If Macron makes the second round, he is virtually certain to defeat whatever challenger emerges; while Socialist Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo or Green Yannick Jadot could hypothetically be competitive with him in the second round, extremist candidates from the right (Marine Le Pen, who was blown out by Macron in the second round of hist first election or new-comer ?ric Zemmour) or Left (M?lenchon) would be blown out by the centrist President.

It's still a long time until the vote, but as things currently stand it's hard to see a way that someone other than Macron ends up occupying the ?lys?e Palace, leaving French policy and one of the most important EU countries in the centrist political control status quo for another half decade.



For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward

5

? Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

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