BALTIMORE REGION

BALTIMORE REGION

Neighborhood change in Baltimore is marked by a major city-suburban divide, reflecting its long and troubled history of racial segregation. In the suburbs, only about one in six residents lives in an area that has experienced either strong economic expansion or decline. Strong neighborhood decline is more common in the suburbs, and the low-income population in those areas has increased by about 25,000 since 2000, a 56 percent increase, causing poverty concentration.

Neighborhood change is more widespread within Baltimore proper, where about 45 percent of residents live in an area experiencing strong shifts. Within the city, on net, approximately 14,000 low- income residents have been displaced from strongly expanding areas since 2000, more than have been concentrated in declining areas. This displacement is occurring across a swath of neighborhoods: Midtown, Charles Village, Hampden, the Inner Harbor, and South Baltimore. However, outside these pockets of intense gentrification, nearly a third of low-income residents lived in strongly declining neighborhoods in 2016, including a number of areas where economic decline was accompanied by neighborhood abandonment, especially in West Baltimore. This may indicate spiraling poverty within those neighborhoods.

Regional Total Population: Regional Low-Income Population: Regional Nonwhite Population:

2,780,873 642,140 1,166,442

Central City Population: Central City Low-Income Population: Central City Nonwhite Population:

621,000 260,938 449,089

NET DISPLACEMENT (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, 2000-2016)

Central City:

-14,040

Suburbs:

-3,597

NET CONCENTRATION (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, 2000-2016)

Central City:

11,709

Suburbs:

25,517

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DETAILS ON TABLES

The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are:

? Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income* share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live).

? Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the lowincome share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live).

Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are:

? In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for nonlow-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps.

? In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline.

Three sets of tables are provided. They are:

? Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. ? Figures for central cities. ? Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city.

This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities.

Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category.

? 2016 Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share.

? 2016 Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts.

? Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes.

* For the purposes of this report, "low-income" is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less.

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DETAILS ON MAPS Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above. The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories:

? Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood's income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive.

? Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood's income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving.

? Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood's income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring.

? Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood's income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area.

The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts. The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes.

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TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Baltimore Region

ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS

ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion (Baltimore Metro)

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Decline (Baltimore Metro)

2016 Share

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

8.1% 8.9% 10.2% 10.8% 6.2% 8.1% 8.7% 9.6% 7.7% 9.9% 7.7% 7.2% 9.1% 6.9% 9.3% 7.1% 10.8% 7.6% 6.7% 8.0% 9.0% 6.8% 12.9% 12.7%

2016 Total

225,695 57,240 29,893 15,604

332 11,685 69,539 14,054 123,565 71,443 90,626 23,317 3,352 19,965 2,441 43,794 71,079 84,651 26,171 200,897 24,798 47,026 45,729 13,974

Net Change Since 2000

16.1% -23.6% -19.7% -18.4% -60.6% 157.3% 1.0% 164.4% 10.8% 122.2% -7.6% -3.1% -38.2% 7.1% -41.8% -2.5% 37.1% 14.1% 13.0% 9.2% 138.6% 16.7% 14.3% 20.4%

+31,269 -17,637 -7,356 -3,517

-511 +7,144 +705 +8,738 +12,016 +39,295 -7,461 -749 -2,072 +1,323 -1,753 -1,119 +19,232 +10,452 +3,015 +16,873 +14,403 +6,720 +5,725 +2,366

2016 Share

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

13.8% 23.2% 24.1% 22.3% 28.6% 7.2% 20.4% 16.3% 10.9% 7.6% 17.0% 13.2% 26.3% 11.5% 26.7% 13.9% 14.8% 13.1% 13.7% 14.1% 10.9% 12.1% 16.8% 20.2%

2016 Total

382,974 149,047 70,430 32,309 1,534 10,316 162,127 23,828 175,792 54,742 200,163 43,009 9,727 33,282 7,009 85,812 97,416 146,373 53,373 352,993 29,981 83,108 59,371 22,156

Net Change Since 2000

-4.4% 33.3% 45.3% 32.4% 43.4% 30.5% 7.5% 215.4% -22.6% 28.9% -7.6% -21.5% 30.5% -29.7% 27.8% -14.5% 3.8% -4.7% 0.6% -7.3% 48.7% -14.7% 10.2% 69.3%

-17,779 +37,226 +21,958 +7,910

+464 +2,413 +11,298 +16,272 -51,358 +12,273 -16,440 -11,807 +2,275 -14,082 +1,526 -14,568 +3,589 -7,171 +307 -27,595 +9,817 -14,288 +5,471 +9,071

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* (Baltimore Metro)

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* (Baltimore Metro)

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

27.9% 20.5% 22.3% 23.4% 19.2% 34.8% 21.2% 26.4% 30.7% 33.5% 24.6% 28.5% 19.2% 29.7% 19.0% 28.1% 28.8% 28.1% 25.7% 27.7% 29.9% 28.3% 27.5% 26.6%

776,599 131,436 65,160 33,908 1,031 50,079 168,949 38,655 496,265 242,673 289,279 92,821 7,100 85,721 4,992 173,871 189,788 312,619 100,321 694,041 82,558 194,611 97,338 29,158

18.6% -15.2% -7.1% -3.8% -46.6% 142.7% 13.4% 171.6% 8.4% 69.7% -0.3% 2.7% -31.4% 7.1% -34.4% 4.2% 28.5% 16.8% 40.2% 12.9% 104.4% 19.7% 10.3% 28.3%

+121,546 -23,586 -4,982 -1,339

-898 +29,444 +19,908 +24,425 +38,307 +99,692

-767 +2,412 -3,250 +5,662 -2,617 +6,970 +42,054 +45,028 +28,771 +79,396 +42,174 +32,017 +9,114 +6,432

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

34.7% 47.3% 47.7% 46.3% 50.6% 24.7% 44.4% 34.7% 30.9% 26.7% 39.2% 33.3% 51.1% 31.0% 52.4% 34.2% 36.0% 33.8% 36.2% 35.3% 29.4% 33.4% 37.6% 41.9%

966,019 303,636 139,509 66,992 2,714 35,533 353,347 50,780 499,315 193,456 460,905 108,344 18,933 89,411 13,725 211,498 236,949 376,424 141,148 885,031 80,988 229,019 133,204 45,989

-1.9% 27.8% 34.0% 26.5% 5.9% 53.1% 8.7% 188.0% -16.8% 24.2% -6.4% -19.2% 20.1% -24.4% 17.7% -14.1% 8.4% -2.9% 6.8% -5.0% 52.6% -8.0% 3.5% 55.9%

-18,418 +65,968 +35,424 +14,038

+150 +12,317 +28,251 +33,146 -100,623 +37,691 -31,448 -25,764 +3,170 -28,934 +2,060 -34,740 +18,325 -11,435 +8,941 -46,338 +27,907 -20,004 +4,526 +16,498

*The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed.

Data: U.S. Census.

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TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Baltimore

ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS

ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion (Baltimore)

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods Experiencing Strong Economic Decline (Baltimore)

2016 Share

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

19.3% 15.5% 16.4% 17.3% 16.0% 28.3% 11.5% 25.5% 34.5% 35.7% 15.0% 15.4% 13.5% 16.1% 13.1% 14.3% 26.7% 17.8% 14.5% 18.9% 23.8% 19.1% 24.7% 20.3%

2016 Total

119,668 40,326 22,665 11,884

228 4,445 44,738 7,545 59,232 44,726 44,371 9,568 2,365 7,203 1,784 18,769 48,557 41,297 11,045 108,102 11,566 21,574 31,986 11,084

Net Change Since 2000

7.8% -25.8% -22.1% -24.2% -59.7% 113.9% -11.8% 147.4% 12.7% 143.7% -22.1% -21.3% -41.6% -11.2% -45.0% -19.3% 44.9% 2.1% -19.5% 2.2% 119.3% 5.5% 10.7% 10.2%

+8,668 -14,040 -6,425 -3,789

-338 +2,367 -5,992 +4,495 +6,667 +26,372 -12,566 -2,595 -1,682 -913 -1,462 -4,489 +15,036 +843 -2,673 +2,375 +6,293 +1,118 +3,082 +1,028

2016 Share

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

24.6% 29.8% 28.6% 25.9% 40.0% 10.6% 28.4% 29.2% 16.8% 14.1% 28.3% 26.2% 29.1% 25.1% 28.3% 26.5% 21.4% 25.3% 26.8% 25.0% 19.7% 26.0% 21.3% 25.2%

2016 Total

152,754 77,862 39,505 17,779

571 1,655 110,031 8,615 28,947 17,642 84,001 16,323 5,092 11,231 3,846 34,814 38,901 58,585 20,454 143,222 9,532 29,352 27,607 13,734

Net Change Since 2000

-8.5% 17.7% 22.2% 7.1% 23.1% -12.7% -4.8% 216.4% -34.3% 32.0% -9.8% -29.2% 2.5% -37.9% 5.0% -20.8% 3.3% -7.0% -8.5% -10.8% 47.8% -22.2% 13.7% 56.6%

-14,243 +11,709 +7,173 +1,177

+107 -241 -5,562 +5,892 -15,115 +4,277 -9,107 -6,741 +126 -6,867 +183 -9,139 +1,226 -4,437 -1,905 -17,322 +3,081 -8,355 +3,319 +4,962

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* (Baltimore)

Population Change by Subgroup in Neighborhoods with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* (Baltimore)

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000

2016 Share 2016 Total Net Change Since 2000

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

30.2% 24.7% 26.4% 29.2% 21.3% 45.2% 21.7% 35.0% 46.9% 45.4% 24.7% 25.6% 21.4% 27.2% 20.7% 25.0% 39.1% 27.9% 24.8% 29.5% 38.3% 28.4% 35.4% 29.2%

187,567 64,383 36,390 20,042

304 7,086 84,213 10,332 80,658 56,918 73,303 15,892 3,754 12,138 2,814 32,824 71,212 64,598 18,933 168,994 18,573 32,099 45,821 15,927

5.1% -23.6% -18.7% -15.2% -62.6% 81.6% -7.2% 172.4% 6.2% 105.6% -16.5% -23.3% -42.5% -14.4% -45.4% -18.9% 35.5% 1.5% -12.9% 0.2% 91.9% -1.1% 4.7% 4.4%

+9,152 -19,875 -8,370 -3,579

-508 +3,184 -6,532 +6,539 +4,728 +29,237 -14,530 -4,825 -2,775 -2,050 -2,341 -7,666 +18,654 +972 -2,808 +258 +8,893 -347 +2,070 +677

TOTAL Low-Income Poverty

Extreme Poverty American Indian

Asian Black Hispanic White College-Educated Non-College Families Families in Poverty Non-Poor Families Single Mothers Children (Under 18) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35 to 64) Seniors (65 and up) U.S.-Born Foreign-Born Owner Units Renter Units Vacant Units

46.7% 53.6% 52.0% 48.9% 60.9% 31.9% 54.3% 41.3% 32.3% 32.8% 51.7% 49.7% 54.9% 47.6% 54.6% 50.0% 40.5% 48.3% 51.1% 47.5% 37.9% 48.8% 42.2% 48.9%

290,306 139,858 71,728 33,554

868 4,997 210,505 12,201 55,481 41,171 153,258 30,888 9,623 21,265 7,418 65,644 73,776 111,869 39,017 271,927 18,379 55,084 54,671 26,665

-8.1% 8.2% 9.8% -2.3% 0.1% 26.8% -6.0% 168.8% -29.1% 25.3% -9.8% -29.1% -4.7% -36.4% -3.0% -20.4% 3.9% -6.0% -10.0% -10.3% 47.1% -19.1% 2.3% 43.5%

-25,430 +10,640 +6,412

-803 +1 +1,055 -13,419 +7,662 -22,778 +8,321 -16,693 -12,662 -479 -12,183 -229 -16,815 +2,746 -7,154 -4,321 -31,315 +5,883 -12,987 +1,232 +8,089

*The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed.

Data: U.S. Census.

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