U.S. Sector Dashboard - S&P Dow Jones Indices
[Pages:8]QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 15%
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
10% 5% 0% -5%
-10%
9.3%
2.7% 0.7%
7.7%
6.4% 1.9% 2.4%
3.3% 3.3% 1.1%
2.0% 1.2%1.3%
1.5% 0.9% 1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
-0.7%
0.9%
-0.1% -2.8%-2.9%
-2.2% -4.1% -3.8%
-6.2%
-15%
-20% -25%
-23.5% -22.2%
-30%
Utilities**
Real Estate
Consumer Staples
Technology
Financials***
Consumer Discretionary
Select Sectors
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Sectors
Industrials
Communication Services****
Materials
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Sectors
Health Care
Energy
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Communication Services**** Energy Financials*** Health Care Industrials Materials Real Estate Technology Utilities**
Select Sectors MTD QTD YTD 1.2% 1.5% 23.3% 1.7% 6.4% 23.4% 0.1% 0.9% 20.9% 3.9% -6.2% 6.1% 4.6% 2.0% 19.6% -0.2% -2.2% 5.6% 3.0% 1.0% 22.6% 3.1% -0.1% 17.1% 1.0% 7.7% 29.7% 1.5% 3.3% 31.4% 4.3% 9.3% 25.4%
COMMENTARY AND STRENGTH OF SECTOR-LEVEL EFFECTS
55% 12M Rolling Average for the S&P 500* 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Sectors
MTD
QTD
YTD
4.5% 0.9% 17.5%
3.1% 1.9% 10.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
5.4% -23.5% -23.1%
4.4% 1.2% 20.3%
-2.6% -4.1% 10.5%
4.4% -0.7% 23.2%
2.9% -2.8% 13.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.7% 1.1% 28.5%
1.4% 0.7% 14.9%
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Sectors
MTD
QTD YTD
5.0% 1.3% 10.1%
4.2% 2.4% 8.8%
N/A
N/A N/A
0.5% -22.2% -19.9%
3.8% 1.3% 14.8%
-1.1% -3.8% 5.4%
4.9% 0.6% 20.9%
9.2% -2.9% 12.5%
N/A
N/A N/A
3.7% 3.3% 25.0%
-0.1% 2.7% 8.8%
Percentage of average correlations attributable to within-sector effects Sep 90 Sep 92 Sep 94 Sep 96 Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
? Utilities and Real Estate were the top performing large-cap sectors during the third quarter.
? Energy was the worst performing sector across the cap spectrum, especially in mid and small-caps.
? The twelve-month rolling average of the proportion of S&P 500 correlations that is attributable to intra-sector effects remained steady at 35%.
*See pages 11-13 of "Sector Effects in the S&P 500?: The Role of Sectors, in Risk, Pricing, and Active Returns" for details on the strength of sector-level effects in the S&P 500. **Utilities MidCap and SmallCap Capped Sectors include constituents of the GICS Utilities and Communication Services sectors. ***Financials & Real Estate SmallCap Capped Sector combines constitutents of the GICS Financials and Real Estate sectors.
****Communication Services Select Sector Index, launched April 30, 2018, no longer overlaps with some constituents of the Technology Select Sector and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Indices. These indices became mutually exclusive as of Sept 24, 2018, coincident with the change in GICS methodology. Performance prior to April 30, 2018 is backtested. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019.
INDEX COMPOSITION
25%
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
20%
Sector Weight
15%
10%
5%
0% Cons Disc
Select Sector Indices S&P MidCap 400 Capped Sector Indices S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Sector Indices
10.15% 12.47% 14.00%
Cons Staples 7.60% 2.81% 4.26%
Energy
4.53% 2.12% 3.78%
Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Real Estate Info Tech
12.94% 16.86% 17.56%
13.65% 9.79% 12.14%
9.34% 15.91% 18.45%
2.73% 6.08% 4.65%
3.22% 11.44% 6.90%
21.93% 15.23% 14.15%
Comm Services 10.32%
2.36% 2.22%
Utilities
3.59% 4.93% 1.89%
KEY TO FACTOR SCORINGS FOR INDICES
Factor Definitions
Each constituent of the S&P 1500 index is provided with a factor "score" for each of Beta, Volatility, Momentum, Dividend, Size, Value and Quality.
Small Size Quality
Low Volatility
S&P 1500
Momentum Value
Dividend
High Beta
Factor
Measurement at single-stock level
Volatility
Trailing 12-month daily return volatility
Twelve-month price change as of one month ago ("13 minus 1 momentum"), divided by the
Momentum daily volatility during the twelve-month period that ended one month ago. For more details, see
the S&P Momentum methodology
Value
The average of (normalized) earnings to price ratio, book to price ratio and sales to price ratio. For more details, see the S&P Value methodology.
Beta
Trailing 1 year beta of stock daily returns to the benchmark's return.
Dividend Trailing 12-month dividend
Quality Size
The average of the (normalized) return on equity, the accruals ratio and the financial leverage ratio. For more details, see the S&P Quality methodology.
Free-float market capitalization
Index Factor Ranking and Factor Diagram Scaling
Index Scores Each index is provided a score in each factor from -100% to +100% based on how much of the total capitalization of the benchmark would must be excluded in order to provide a portfolio of stocks with similar exposure to that factor. This is done by examining a ranked series of hypothetical cap-weighted portfolios, including or excluding an increasing number of the stocks with the highest or lowest scores. An illustration of the process may be found at this link.
Factor Diagram Axis
Single-stock portfolio with the highest possible factor score
Fewer stocks Fewer stocks
... ...
The stocks in the benchmark are ranked in order from highest to lowest factor score, and we examine portfolios including or excluding a varying number of stocks associated to high or lower factor scores. The score in each factor (and its level on the chart) reflects the active share of a hypothetical portfolios matching the factor score of that index. The weights of stocks within the hypothetical comparison portfolios are set proportional to benchmark weights, i.e. free-float market capitalization.
...
Portfolios with a tilt against the factor begin by excluding the highest-ranked stock and end up
concentrated in the lowest-ranked stocks
Benchmark Portfolio has a factor rank defined by that of a cap-weighted average score among all stocks
Weighting matters to the ranking of the index. Each the ranked portfolios of stocks is given a factor score through the capitalization-weighted average. Factor indices can use alternative weightings, which can provide higher factor exposures with fewer stocks.
Single-stock portfolio with the lowest possible factor score
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019.
COMMENTARY
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
The diagrams below illustrate factor exposures relative to the S&P 1500 across sectors, from large to smallcaps.
For example, Consumer Discretionary starts out with more volatility than the S&P 1500, and becomes relatively more volatile at the mid and small-cap levels.
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Low_Volatility
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Consumer Discretionary Low_Volatility
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Consumer Discretionary Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality
Benchmark
Value Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Consumer Staples Select Sector Low_Volatility
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Consumer Staples Low_Volatility
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Consumer Staples Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality Dividend
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Energy Select Sector
Low_Volatility Small_Size
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Energy
Low_Volatility
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Energy
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality Dividend
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019.
Financial Select Sector Low_Volatility
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Financials Low_Volatility
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Financials & Real Estate Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality Dividend
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
High_Beta
Dividend
Value
Quality
High_Beta
Benchmark
Dividend
Value High_Beta
Health Care Select Sector Low_Volatility
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Health Care Low_Volatility
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Health Care Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Dividend
High_Beta
Industrial Select Sector Low_Volatility
Dividend
High_Beta
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Industrials Low_Volatility
Dividend
High_Beta
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Industrials Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Materials Select Sector Low_Volatility
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Materials Low_Volatility
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Materials Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
Value High_Beta
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019.
Real Estate Select Sector Low_Volatility
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Financials & Real Estate
Communication Services Select Sector ***
Low_Volatility
Low_Volatility
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Small_Size
Momentum
Quality Dividend
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Technology Select Sector
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Information Technology
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Information Technology
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Quality Dividend
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Utilities Select Sector
S&P MidCap 400 Capped Utilities & Comm Services **
S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Utilities & Comm Services **
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Small_Size
Low_Volatility
Momentum
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Quality
Benchmark
Value
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
Dividend
High_Beta
**Utilities MidCap and SmallCap Capped Sectors include constituents of the GICS Utilities and Communication Services sectors.
***Communication Services Select Sector Index, launched April 30, 2018, no longer overlaps with some constituents of the Technology Select Sector and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Indices. These indices became mutually exclusive as of Sept 24, 2018, coincident with the change in GICS methodology. Performance prior to April 30, 2018 is backtested. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019.
SELECTED KEY METRICS - SELECT SECTOR INDICES
METRICS
Communication Services*** Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Real Estate Technology Utilities
DIV YIELD P/E
1.0%
26.0
1.4%
26.5
2.7%
26.8
3.9%
18.3
2.1%
13.4
1.8%
24.4
2.0%
26.4
2.2%
28.3
3.1%
36.5
1.4%
24.1
3.0%
25.5
P/B P/S
3.6 2.9 7.7 1.7
5.8 1.6
1.5 1.1
1.5 2.1 4.2 1.7 5.2 1.7 2.3 1.7 3.9 7.3 7.8 4.5 2.4 2.8
ROE (%)
13.9% 29.0%
21.6%
8.1%
11.5% 17.2% 19.5% 8.2% 10.6% 32.3% 9.5%
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE
0.9 2.0
1.2
0.4
1.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.5
BETA
1.12 1.09
0.53
1.03
0.95 0.88 1.05 0.93 0.46 1.36 0.21
CONSTITUENT VOLATILITY
30.9% 28.4%
21.5%
27.7%
23.1% 26.0% 26.9% 27.9% 20.2% 30.4% 16.9%
DOMESTIC % OF SALES
73.0% 74.6%
70.2%
58.9%
77.2% 78.4% 60.9% 44.9% 80.7% 40.1% 96.0%
RSI - 30 DAY
54.0 59.5
58.4
57.6
62.6 50.0 62.0 57.5 56.3 56.1 71.0
VALUE SCORE
-0.20 -0.26
-0.21
0.27
0.36 -0.30 -0.22 -0.12 -0.33 -0.41 0.00
GROWTH SCORE
0.22 0.02
-0.01
0.15
0.17 0.13 0.00 0.03 -0.05 0.05 -0.01
SELECTED KEY METRICS - S&P MIDCAP 400 CAPPED SECTORS
METRICS
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Utilities & Comm Services**
DIV YIELD P/E
1.4%
26.0
1.2%
54.7
1.9%
18.1
2.5%
13.4
0.3%
35.6
1.2%
21.3
0.6%
40.4
2.1%
14.6
2.1%
25.9
P/B P/S
3.7 0.9
2.7 1.0
0.7 0.5 1.4 1.8 3.7 1.8 2.8 1.0 3.5 1.2 2.4 0.9 2.6 1.9
ROE (%)
14.2%
4.9%
3.7% 10.2% 10.3% 13.2% 8.6% 16.3% 10.1%
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE
1.8
1.2
0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1
BETA
1.07
0.62
1.50 0.93 1.11 1.16 1.36 0.98 0.53
CONSTITUENT VOLATILITY
37.1%
28.4%
51.5% 26.2% 34.4% 31.5% 36.6% 30.5% 22.7%
DOMESTIC % OF SALES
76.4%
78.1%
74.7% 85.4% 83.2% 65.4% 43.4% 64.8% 87.1%
RSI - 30 DAY
60.5
56.7
53.6 59.3 41.6 59.4 54.7 57.8 57.6
VALUE SCORE
0.01
0.15
0.28 0.24 -0.26 0.09 -0.11 0.13 -0.05
GROWTH SCORE
0.02
-0.14
0.02 -0.02 0.23 -0.06 0.05 -0.04 0.02
SELECTED KEY METRICS - S&P SMALLCAP 600 CAPPED SECTORS
METRICS
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy Financials & Real Estate Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Utilities & Comm Services**
DIV YIELD
1.5%
2.1%
0.7% 3.8% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 2.1% 2.9%
P/E
26.2
128.4
n/m 20.4 n/m 23.2 72.9 17.6 n/m
P/B P/S
2.3 0.5
2.4 0.4
0.4 0.5 1.4 1.9 3.5 1.2 2.4 0.9 2.7 1.2 2.0 0.6 1.7 0.8
ROE (%)
8.9%
1.9%
-5.9% 6.8% -8.9% 10.3% 3.7% 11.5% -62.0%
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE
1.0
0.9
0.8 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 3.0
BETA
1.06
0.73
1.62 0.81 1.16 1.15 1.30 1.27 0.78
CONSTITUENT VOLATILITY
43.2%
36.3%
59.8% 27.2% 46.2% 35.4% 40.5% 39.2% 33.0%
DOMESTIC % OF SALES
84.4%
75.1%
83.7% 69.5% 92.9% 76.3% 50.2% 62.7% 93.8%
RSI - 30 DAY
60.4
57.6
49.9 56.0 47.1 58.4 55.8 58.8 55.5
Select Sectors, MidCap and SmallCap Capped Sectors Value vs. Growth Scores (Size Proportional to Cap)
0.40
VALUE SCORE
0.32
0.16
0.51 0.15 -0.32 0.15 -0.02 0.28 -0.03
GROWTH SCORE
0.02
0.10
0.16 0.02 0.29 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 -0.07
Growth Score at 2018 rebalance
0.30
Sector Key
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Value Score at Dec 2018 rebalance
Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Info Tech Communication Services Utilities Real Estate
Utilities held the highest technical position for large caps, given its strong recent performance.
Technology and Consumer Discretionary have the highest ROEs among large-caps.
Average constituent volatility in the Communication Services Select Sector is the highest among large-caps. Meanwhile, Energy continues to be the most volatile sector in mid and small-caps.
For details on definitions of fundamental metrics, please refer to the disclosure section. **Utilities MidCap and SmallCap Capped Sectors include constituents of the GICS Utilities and Communication Services sectors. ***Communication Services Select Sector Index, launched April 30, 2018, no longer overlaps with some constituents of the Technology Select Sector and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Indices. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and FactSet. Data as of September 30, 2019.
COMMENTARY
? Dispersion decreased across most sectors, especially in small-cap Energy.
? Correlations decreased across most sectors, especially in large-cap financials.
U.S. Sector Dashboard
September 30, 2019
SECTOR DISPERSION AND CORRELATION S&P 500 Sector Average Correlation and Dispersion (Trailing 12 -Month Volatility)
0.80
Average Correlation
0.70
Utilities (13.67%)
0.60
Financials (18.46%)
Energy (22.33%)
Technology (23.96%)
Real Estate (15.38%)
0.50
Communication Services (19.97%)
Materials (18.99%)
0.40
Industrials (19.18%)
Consumer Discretionary (20.72%) Health Care (16.87%)
Consumer Staples (13.33%)
0.30
S&P 500 (16.69%)
0.20
0.10 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Average Dispersion
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Average Correlation
0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10
5%
0.80
S&P MidCap 400 Sector Average Correlation and Dispersion (Trailing 12-Month Volatility)
Utilities (14.37%)
Energy (40.69%)
Financials (19.21%)
Real Estate (16.32%)
Industrials (21.39%)
Communication Services (20.00%T)echnology (23.34%)
Materials (19.85%)
Health Care (21.25%)
S&P 400 (17.59%)
Consumer Discretionary (19.18%)
Consumer Staples (14.77%)
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Average Dispersion
S&P SmallCap 600 Sector Average Correlation and Dispersion (Trailing 12-Month Volatility)
0.70
0.60
Average Correlation
0.50
Utilities (15.15%)
Financials (19.54%)
Materials (26.65%)
Energy (43.33%)
0.40
Real Estate (17.03%) Industrials (22.35%)
0.30
Technology (24.23%)
Communication Services (23.61%)
Health Care (23.66%)
0.20
S&P 600 (19.69%)
Consumer Staples (16.45%) Consumer Discretionary (21.55%)
0.10 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Average Dispersion
50%
55%
NOTES
? The charts above decomposed volatility into its two main components: dispersion and correlation. The dispersion and correlati on data points are each sector's average monthly value over the trailing 12 months. Trailing annualized volatility is included in parentheses. Index dispersions shown based on calendar month stock -level index-weighted dispersion. Index correlation based on single stock daily total returns during each calendar month. See "Implications of Sector Dispersion" for more information.
? See "At the Intersection of Diversification, Volatility and Correlation" for details on the relationship between correlation and dispersion.
? See "Dispersion: Measuring Market Opportunity" for the definition of index dispersion and more information on the uses of dispers ion.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Data as of September 30, 2019. Index performance based on total return (USD). Charts and graphs are provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Notes On Additional Index Statistics
Statistic
Notes
Price/Earnings (P/E)
Price per share as of observation date divided by earnings per share, calculated by adding the last twelve calendar months' quarterly reported earnings per share.
Price/Book (P/B) Price/Sales (P/S)
Price per share as of observation date divided by latest annual reported book value per share. Price per share as of observation date divided by sales per share, calculated by adding twelve calendar months' quarterly reported sales per share.
Return on Equity (ROE%)
Earnings per share divided by latest annual reported book value per share.
Financial Leverage Ratio
A company's total debt divided by its latest annual reported book value, calculated as book value per share multiplied by common outstanding shares. Debt, book value per share, and common outstanding shares are latest annual reported values.
RSI - 30 Day
RSI is an indicator of the speed and change of price movements and oscillates between zero and 100. RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. RS is the average gain divided by average loss over the past 30 days. Then RSI is equal to 100 minus 100 divided by 1+RS.
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