July 2021 Select Leading Economic Indicators

Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index January 1, 2007 - July 3, 2021

2 Peak: 8.99

1

0

-1

-2

-3 Trough:-26.72

-4

Pending Home Sales Index for the U.S. January 2001 - May 2021

140 130 120 110 100

90 80 70 60

Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits in Washington State January 1990 - May 2021 (in thousands)

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

0

Net Percentage of U.S. Lenders Reporting Increased Willingness to Make Consumer Installment Loans: 1st Qtr 2000 - 2nd Qtr 2021

30 20 10

0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50

10-Year Treasury Note and 3-MonthTreasury Bill Interest Rate Spread January 1990 - June 2021

400 350 300 250 200 150 100

50 0

-50 -100

Average Manufacturing Overtime Hours Per Week in the U.S. January 1990 - June 2021

5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021

Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12%

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance in Washington State January 1990 - June 2021 (in thousands)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

50 0

Year-over-Year Employment Growth in Washington State January 1990 - June 2021

July 2021 Select Leading Economic Indicators

Jointly prepared by the Employment Security Department/Labor Market & Economic Analysis, Economic & Revenue Forecast Council, Office of Financial Management, Department of Commerce, and Department of Financial Institutions.

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