Leading & Coincident Indicators
US Economic Indicators: Leading &
Coincident Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 20, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
Please visit our sites at blog.
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Leading & Coincident Indicators Coincident Indicators Lagging Indicators GDP & Coincident Indicators Components of Leading Economic Indicators Components of Coincident Economic Indictors Corporate Profit Margin & LEI/CEI ECRI & Leading Economic Indicators Leading Economic Indicators & Boom-Bust Barometer Leading Economic Indicators & Payroll Employment Leading Economic Indicators Weekly Leading Indexes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-11 12 13
December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
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Leading & Coincident Indicators
Figure 1.
125
115 LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
105
(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)
95
85
75
65
55
45
Economic Indicators Leading
Coincident 35
125 Nov
115 105 95 85 75 65 55
45
35
25
25
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board.
Figure 2.
1.4
1.4
RATIO LEADING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.2
1.2
Nov
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.
Page 1 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
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Coincident Indicators
Figure 3.
125
115 COINCIDENT INDICATORS 105 (2016=100, sa, ratio scale)
95 85 75
65
55
45
125 115 Nov 105 95 85 75 65
55
45
35
35
24
106
36
58 12
92
120
73
128
25
25
58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Numbers above time line reflect number of months of expansion. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 4.
125
115 COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS
105
(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)
95
85
68 Months
33 Months
1/08-10/13
75
2/01-11/03
65
23 Months 7/90-6/92 55
25 Months
45
8/81-9/83
32 Months 11/73-7/76
19 Months
35
10/69-5/71
125
115
Nov
105
95
16 Months
85
2/20-6/21
75
65
55
45
35
30 Months 61 Months 5/71-11/73 7/76-8/81
82 Months 9/83-7/90
104 Months 6/92-2/01
50 Months 11/03-1/08
77 Months 10/13-2/20
25
25
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries. Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.
Page 2 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Lagging Indicators
Figure 5.
125
115 LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
105
(2016=100), ratio scale
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
125
115
Nov
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
25
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.
Figure 6.
1.3
1.3
RATIO LAGGING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
Nov
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.8
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.
Page 3 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
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GDP & Coincident Indicators
Figure 7.
20
REAL GDP & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change)
10
0
CEI (3.6) Real GDP (4.9) -10
20
10 Q3 Nov
0
-10
-20
-20
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board.
Figure 8.
25
25
REAL GDP & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
20
(yearly percent change)
20
15
15
10
Nov
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
LEI (9.8)
-15
Real GDP (4.9)
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.
Page 4 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Components of Leading Economic Indicators
Figure 9.
46
COMPONENTS OF LEADING
44 ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Workweek
42
(hours, sa)
Nov
40
38
36 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
3.2
Building Permits
(million units,
2.8
saar)
2.4
2.0 Nov 1.6
1.2
.8
.4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
4900
4300 Jobless Claims 3700 (thousands, sa)
3100
2500
1900
1300
700
100
Nov
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
.4
.2
Average of Conference Board & University of Michigan Expectations Indexes (normalized index)
.0 Nov
-.2
-.4
-.6
-.8
-1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
175 Consumer Goods Orders (billions of 1982 dollars, sa)
150
125 Nov
100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
90 ISM New Orders Index
80 (50+=increasing, sa)
70
60
Nov
50
40
30
20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Nov 4800 4400
4000
S&P 500 Composite Price Index
3600
(1941-43=10, nsa)
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
15
Leading Credit Index
10
(normalized index,
percent)
5
Nov 0
-5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
57
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders
51
Excluding Aircraft
(billions of 1982 dollars, sa)
45
Nov 39
33
27 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Conference Board.
600 Interest Rate Spread (basis points, nsa)
400
200 Nov
0
-200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Page 5 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Components of Coincident Economic Indictors
Figure 10.
170
150
COMPONENTS OF
130
COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (ratio scale)
110
170
Nov
150
130
110
90
90
Payroll Employment
(millions, sa)
70
70
50
50
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
17.5
17.5
15.5 13.5
Nov
15.5 13.5
11.5
11.5
9.5
9.5
7.5
7.5
5.5
5.5
Real Personal Income Less
3.5
Transfer Payments
3.5
(trillion 2012 dollars, saar)
1.5
1.5
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000
800
1800
Nov
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
600
400
Manufacturing & Trade Sales
400
(billion 2012 dollars)
200
200
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
140
140
120
120
100
Nov
100
80
80
60
60
40
Industrial Production 2012=100, sa
40
20
20
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve Board.
Page 6 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators
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