Leading & Coincident Indicators

US Economic Indicators: Leading &

Coincident Indicators

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 20, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Leading & Coincident Indicators Coincident Indicators Lagging Indicators GDP & Coincident Indicators Components of Leading Economic Indicators Components of Coincident Economic Indictors Corporate Profit Margin & LEI/CEI ECRI & Leading Economic Indicators Leading Economic Indicators & Boom-Bust Barometer Leading Economic Indicators & Payroll Employment Leading Economic Indicators Weekly Leading Indexes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-11 12 13

December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Leading & Coincident Indicators

Figure 1.

125

115 LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

105

(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)

95

85

75

65

55

45

Economic Indicators Leading

Coincident 35

125 Nov

115 105 95 85 75 65 55

45

35



25

25

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board.

Figure 2.

1.4

1.4

RATIO LEADING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1.2

1.2

Nov

1.0

1.0



.8

.8

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.

Page 1 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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Coincident Indicators

Figure 3.

125

115 COINCIDENT INDICATORS 105 (2016=100, sa, ratio scale)

95 85 75

65

55

45

125 115 Nov 105 95 85 75 65

55

45

35

35

24

106

36

58 12

92

120

73

128



25

25

58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Numbers above time line reflect number of months of expansion. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 4.

125

115 COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS

105

(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)

95

85

68 Months

33 Months

1/08-10/13

75

2/01-11/03

65

23 Months 7/90-6/92 55

25 Months

45

8/81-9/83

32 Months 11/73-7/76

19 Months

35

10/69-5/71

125

115

Nov

105

95

16 Months

85

2/20-6/21

75

65

55



45

35

30 Months 61 Months 5/71-11/73 7/76-8/81

82 Months 9/83-7/90

104 Months 6/92-2/01

50 Months 11/03-1/08

77 Months 10/13-2/20

25

25

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries. Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.

Page 2 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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Lagging Indicators

Figure 5.

125

115 LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

105

(2016=100), ratio scale

95

85

75

65

55

45

35

125

115

Nov

105

95

85

75

65

55

45

35



25

25

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.

Figure 6.

1.3

1.3

RATIO LAGGING TO COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

Nov

1.0

.9

.9



.8

.8

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.

Page 3 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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GDP & Coincident Indicators

Figure 7.

20

REAL GDP & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change)

10

0

CEI (3.6) Real GDP (4.9) -10

20

10 Q3 Nov

0

-10



-20

-20

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board.

Figure 8.

25

25

REAL GDP & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

20

(yearly percent change)

20

15

15

10

Nov

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

LEI (9.8)

-15

Real GDP (4.9)

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board.

Page 4 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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Components of Leading Economic Indicators

Figure 9.

46

COMPONENTS OF LEADING

44 ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Average Workweek

42

(hours, sa)

Nov

40

38

36 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

3.2

Building Permits

(million units,

2.8

saar)

2.4

2.0 Nov 1.6

1.2

.8

.4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

4900

4300 Jobless Claims 3700 (thousands, sa)

3100

2500

1900

1300

700

100

Nov

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

.4

.2

Average of Conference Board & University of Michigan Expectations Indexes (normalized index)

.0 Nov

-.2

-.4

-.6

-.8

-1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

175 Consumer Goods Orders (billions of 1982 dollars, sa)

150

125 Nov

100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

90 ISM New Orders Index

80 (50+=increasing, sa)

70

60

Nov

50

40

30

20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Nov 4800 4400

4000

S&P 500 Composite Price Index

3600

(1941-43=10, nsa)

3200

2800

2400

2000

1600

1200

800

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

15

Leading Credit Index

10

(normalized index,

percent)

5

Nov 0

-5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

57

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

51

Excluding Aircraft

(billions of 1982 dollars, sa)

45

Nov 39

33

27 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Conference Board.

600 Interest Rate Spread (basis points, nsa)

400

200 Nov

0

-200

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Page 5 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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Components of Coincident Economic Indictors

Figure 10.

170

150

COMPONENTS OF

130

COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (ratio scale)

110

170

Nov

150

130

110

90

90

Payroll Employment

(millions, sa)

70

70

50

50

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

17.5

17.5

15.5 13.5

Nov

15.5 13.5

11.5

11.5

9.5

9.5

7.5

7.5

5.5

5.5

Real Personal Income Less

3.5

Transfer Payments

3.5

(trillion 2012 dollars, saar)

1.5

1.5

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000

800

1800

Nov

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

600

400

Manufacturing & Trade Sales

400

(billion 2012 dollars)

200

200

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

140

140

120

120

100

Nov

100

80

80

60

60

40

Industrial Production 2012=100, sa

40



20

20

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve Board.

Page 6 / December 20, 2021 / Leading & Coincident Indicators

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