US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 23, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Debbie Johnson
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Weekly Leading Indexes
1-5
December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Weekly Leading Indexes
Figure 1.
180
ECRI, FIBER WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMTER
160
140 ECRI
120
180
160
8/30
140
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
160
160
12/17
140
140
120
120
100
100
FIBER
80
80
12/18
60
60
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
260
260
240
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
Boom-Bust Barometer*
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
*CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER), Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.
Page 1 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Weekly Leading Indexes
Figure 2.
400
ECRI & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
ECRI
300
Boom-Bust
Barometer*
400
12/18 300
200
200
8/30
100
100
0
0
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.
Figure 3.
160
ECRI & FIBER
140 120 100 80 60
ECRI FIBER
160 12/17 8/30
140
120
100
80
40
60
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).
Page 2 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Weekly Leading Indexes
Figure 4.
160
ECRI & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
140 ECRI Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
120
160 8/30
140
Nov
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and The Conference Board.
Figure 5.
170
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
150
130
ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100, 4-wa)
110
170
150 8/30
130 Nov
110
90
90
70
70
Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
50
50
30
30
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Page 3 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Weekly Leading Indexes
Figure 6.
140
BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
120
Boom-Bust
Barometer*
Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
100
12/18 300
250 Nov
200
150
100 80
50
60 0
40
-50
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: The Conference Board, Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.
Figure 7.
120
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
CRB Raw Industrials Index* 100
Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
Nov 700 12/21 650
600 550 500 450
400 80
350
300
250
60
200
150
100
40
50
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Conference Board and Commodity Research Bureau.
Page 4 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Weekly Leading Indexes
Figure 8.
5000
S&P 500 INDEX & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
4000
S&P 500 Index 3000
Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
2000
140 12/22 Nov 120
100
80
1000
60
0
40
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's and the Conference Board.
Figure 9.
2500
US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (percent)
High Yield Spread
2000
(basis points)*
Conference Board LEI (2016=100)
1500
Nov 120 110 100
1000
90
500
80
12/22
0
70
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* US high-yield corporate less US treasury 10-year bond yield Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and The Conference Board.
Page 5 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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