US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 23, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Weekly Leading Indexes

1-5

December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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Weekly Leading Indexes

Figure 1.

180

ECRI, FIBER WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMTER

160

140 ECRI

120

180

160

8/30

140

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

160

160

12/17

140

140

120

120

100

100

FIBER

80

80

12/18

60

60

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

Boom-Bust Barometer*

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0



-20

-20

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

*CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER), Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.

Page 1 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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Weekly Leading Indexes

Figure 2.

400

ECRI & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER

ECRI

300

Boom-Bust

Barometer*

400

12/18 300

200

200

8/30

100

100



0

0

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.

Figure 3.

160

ECRI & FIBER

140 120 100 80 60

ECRI FIBER

160 12/17 8/30

140

120

100

80



40

60

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute and Foundation of International Business & Economic Research (FIBER).

Page 2 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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Weekly Leading Indexes

Figure 4.

160

ECRI & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

140 ECRI Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

120

160 8/30

140

Nov

120

100

100

80

80

60

60



40

40

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and The Conference Board.

Figure 5.

170

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

150

130

ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=100, 4-wa)

110

170

150 8/30

130 Nov

110

90

90

70

70

Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

50

50



30

30

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Page 3 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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Weekly Leading Indexes

Figure 6.

140

BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

120

Boom-Bust

Barometer*

Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

100

12/18 300

250 Nov

200

150

100 80

50

60 0



40

-50

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: The Conference Board, Commodity Research Bureau, and US Department of Labor.

Figure 7.

120

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

CRB Raw Industrials Index* 100

Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

Nov 700 12/21 650

600 550 500 450

400 80

350

300

250

60

200

150

100



40

50

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Conference Board and Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 4 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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Weekly Leading Indexes

Figure 8.

5000

S&P 500 INDEX & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

4000

S&P 500 Index 3000

Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

2000

140 12/22 Nov 120

100

80

1000

60



0

40

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's and the Conference Board.

Figure 9.

2500

US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (percent)

High Yield Spread

2000

(basis points)*

Conference Board LEI (2016=100)

1500

Nov 120 110 100

1000

90

500

80

12/22



0

70

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* US high-yield corporate less US treasury 10-year bond yield Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and The Conference Board.

Page 5 / December 23, 2021 / US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes

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