Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 14, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Margin Debt

3-6

January 14, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

960

900 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000

Margin Debt

50 N1/o1v3

840

780 Margin Debt*

40

720

(billion dollars) (918.6)

660

600

Wilshire 5000 Market Cap

30

540

(trillions) (47.1)

480

420 20

360

300

240

180

10

120

60



0

0

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

3.0

3.0

MARGIN DEBT*

(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

Nov

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2



1.0

1.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / January 14, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

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Margin Debt

Figure 3.

400

400

MARGIN DEBT*

350 (yearly change, billion dollars)

350

300

300

250

250

200

Nov

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100

-150

-150



-200

-200

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.

100

100

MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)

50

50

Nov

0

0



-50

-50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / January 14, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 5.

1000

MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500

Margin Debt

800

Margin Debt*

(billion dollars) (918.6)

S&P 500 Market Cap (40.0)

600

50 Nov

1/12

40

30

400

20

200

10



0

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

4

4

MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)

3

3

Nov

2

2



1

1

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / January 14, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

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Margin Debt

Figure 7.

950

MARGIN DEBT & RUSSELL 3000

900

850

Nov 1/13

3000

800

750

Margin Debt*

(billion dollars)

700

650

Russell 3000 Index

2000

600

550

500

450

400

350

1000

300

250

200

150

100



50

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Wall Street Journal.

Figure 8.

1050

1/13

1050

1000 MARGIN DEBT & S&P 1500

1000

950

950

900

Nov

900

850

S&P 1500 Composite Index

850

800

800

750

750

Margin Debt*

700

(billion dollars)

700

650

650

600

600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100



50

50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / January 14, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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