S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends - Yardeni Research
Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 7, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Buybacks & Dividends
3-6
Buybacks
7
S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors
8
Buybacks & Dividends
9
Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings
10
S&P 500 Sectors Buybacks
11
S&P 500 Sectors Cumulative Buybacks Since Q1-2009
12
S&P 500 Sectors Dividends
13
S&P 500 Sectors Buybacks
14
January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 1.
1050
S&P 500 BUYBACKS 950 (billion dollars, annualized)
850 Actual x 4 (938.6)
750
4-Quarter Sum (742.2)
1050
Q3
950
850
Q3
750
650
650
550
550
450
450
350
350
250
250
150
150
50
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
550
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, annualized)
500
550 Q4
500
450
450
400
Actual x 4 (534.4)
400
4-Quarter Sum (511.4)
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 3 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 3.
300
S&P 500 BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly, nsa)
200
300
Q3 200
100
100
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
140
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, quarterly)
120
140 Q4
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 4 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 5.
5
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (trillion dollars, annualized)
4
Buybacks
3
Dividends
S&P 500 Index
5 Dec
4
3
2
2
Q3
1
1
Q4
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
1000
S&P 500 BUYBACKS (billion dollars, annualized)
800
1000 Q3
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
12
12
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD
10 (percent)
10
8
8
6
6
12/31
4
4
BoFA Merrill Lynch AAA
2
Corporate Bond Yield (2.6)
Dec 2
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (4.7) 0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 stock price index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Standard & Poor's and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Page 5 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 7.
1600
S&P 500 BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS 1400 (billion dollars, annualized)
1600 Q3
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
Total* (1243.4)
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1000
1000 Q3
800
800
600
Buybacks* (742.2)
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
550
550
Q4
500
500
450
450
400
Dividends* (511.4)
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
*4-quarter sum. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 6 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks
Figure 8.
600
600
TOTAL GROSS ISSUANCE OF STOCKS MINUS S&P 500 BUYBACKS
(billion dollars)
400
Total Gross Issuance
400
of Stocks Minus
S&P 500 Buybacks
200
(annualized)
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-600
Corporate Equities: Net Issuance
Nonfinancial Corporate Business
-800
(4-quarter sum)
-400 Q3
-600 Q3
-800
-1000
-1000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 7 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors
Figure 9.
50000
S&P 1500 DIVISOR*
48000
46000
44000
42000
40000
S&P 1500 DIVISOR* (y/y percent change)
1/7
8
6
4
2
1/7
0
-2
-4
38000 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
9750
S&P 500 DIVISOR*
9250
8750 1/7
8250
7750
-6 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
10
S&P 500 DIVISOR*
(y/y percent change)
8
6
4
2
1/7
0
-2
7250 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
-4 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
3000
S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR*
2500
2000
S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change)
10
5
0 1/7
-5
1500
-10
-15
1000
1/7
-20
500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
-25 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
2500
S&P 600 SMALLCAP DIVISOR*
2000 1500
S&P 600 SMALLCAP DIVISOR* (y/y percent change)
10 5 1/7 0 -5
1000 1/7
500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
-10
-15
-20 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* Divisor is used to ensure that changes in shares outstanding, capital actions, and the addition or deletion of stocks to the index do not change the level of the index. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 8 / January 7, 2022 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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