ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES …

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS WEEKLY GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL UPDATE

Oct 04, 2024

WEATHER CONDITIONS Over the past week, temperatures were above average throughout the Great Lakes region and most of the area experienced very dry conditions. However, in southeast Michigan and in the southern portions of the Lakes Erie and Ontario basins, about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain fell over the weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Helene pushed north into the region. During the work week, high-pressure systems have dominated over the Great Lakes region bringing drier and seasonable weather to the region. This is forecast to continue into next week with warmer than normal temperatures and little rain is forecasted in the upcoming week. The largest chance for rain will come Saturday night into Sunday as a low-pressure system tracking over Ontario, Canada will bring a chance for precipitation in the northern and eastern portions of the basin.

LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS

Forecasted water levels for October 4th are 3 to 5 inches below last month's levels and range from 1 to 7 inches below levels from last year on all lakes. Projected October 4th levels are above their long-term October average levels on all the lakes, besides Lake Superior, which is 5 inches below its October average level. The lakes are in their period of seasonal decline and are forecast to continue their declines in the coming month. By November 4th, water levels are forecast to decline on Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron by 2 to 3 inches, while Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario are forecast to drop about 5 to 7 inches. For more information, please see our water level data web page.

FORECASTED MONTHLY OUTFLOWS/CHANNEL CONDITIONS Lake Superior's outflow into the St. Marys River is expected to be below average for October. Lake Michigan-Huron's outflow through the St. Clair River and Lake St. Clair's outflow into the Detroit River are projected to be slightly above average for October. Lake Erie's outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario's outflow from the St. Lawrence River are projected to be above average in October.

ALERTS Water levels shown are still-water surface elevations over the entire lake surface. Water levels at specific locations may differ due to meteorological influences. Official records are based on monthly average water levels and not daily water levels. Great Lakes, connecting channels, and St. Lawrence River users should keep informed of current conditions before undertaking any activities affected by changing water levels. Mariners should use navigation charts and refer to current water level readings.

Forecasted Water Level for Oct 4, 2024 (feet)

Chart Datum (feet)

SUPERIOR 601.71 601.10

MICH-HURON 579.13 577.50

ST. CLAIR 575.13 572.30

ERIE 572.11 569.20

ONTARIO 245.08 243.30

Difference from chart datum (inches)

+7

+20

+34

+35

+21

Difference from average water level for Sep 4, 2024 (inches*)

-3

-4

-4

-4

-5

Difference from average water level for Oct 4, 2023 (inches*)

-7

-3

-1

-3

-1

Difference from long-term monthly average of Oct (inches)

Difference from highest monthly average of record for Oct (inches)

Year of highest recorded monthly mean

Difference from lowest monthly average of record for Oct (inches)

Year of lowest recorded monthly mean

-5 -20 1985 +12 1925

+2 -39 1986 +32 1964

+11 -26 1986 +41 1934

+11 -22 1986 +43 1934

+3 -20 1945 +35 1934

Projected net change in levels by Nov 4, 2024 (inches)

-2

-3

-7

-5

-6

ALL DATA SHOWN IN THIS SUMMARY ARE REFERENCED TO IGLD 1985 *VALUES FOR SPECIFIC DAY ARE BASED ON 3-DAY DAILY AVERAGE AROUND SPECIFIED DATE

LONG TERM AVERAGE PERIOD OF RECORD, 1918-2022

FORECASTED INFORMATION PROVIDED BY Department of the Army

Detroit District, Corps of Engineers

Detroit District Home 1-888-694-8313 ext. 1

RECORDED DATA (1918 ? present) provided by

NOAA Center for Operational Oceanic Products and Services

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT Detroit District Great Lakes Homepage

International Joint Commission

Great Lakes Information Network

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