Agricultural Weather Highlights – Thursday - September 30 ...

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Satellite image with enhanced low cloud-top temperatures for 6:10 a.m. EDT (NOAA)

Agricultural Weather Highlights ? Friday - October 4, 2024

In the West, record-breaking heat continues from California into the Southwest, while windy conditions have developed farther north. Northwestern winds, accompanied by dry weather, low humidity levels, and ample fuels, are contributing to a significantly elevated wildfire threat, especially across the northern Great Basin and northern Intermountain West. In addition, several wildfires--including the 50,000-acre Elk Fire near Dayton, Wyoming--are already actively burning.

On the Plains, unusual warmth persists across much of Oklahoma, Texas, and southeastern Kansas, where today's high temperatures should range from 85 to 95?F. Slightly cooler air has overspread the remainder of the region, but the return of warm weather is imminent across the northern High Plains. Drier areas of the Plains, including much of Nebraska and South Dakota, face an elevated wildfire threat--a concern during the harvest season--as winds begin to increase.

In the Corn Belt, scattered sub-freezing temperatures were noted this morning in the far upper Midwest, mainly from eastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota. The cool weather is not expected to have a significant effect on maturing summer crops, as 81% of South Dakota's soybeans were dropping leaves by September 29, while South Dakota's corn was 96% dented and 62% fully mature. Meanwhile, brief showers in the vicinity of a cold front extend southwestward from Michigan. Elsewhere in the Midwest, mild dry weather favors crop maturation and harvesting.

In the South, thundershowers over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico are affecting a few coastal locations from Texas to Florida. Elsewhere, warm, dry weather favors farming activities, including Southeastern hurricane recovery and damage assessments. Meanwhile in Louisiana, the sugarcane harvest is underway (6% complete by September 29), just a little over 3 weeks after Hurricane Francine traversed the production area.

Outlook: Dry, windy weather will prevail into the weekend across parts of the western and central U.S., leading to an elevated wildfire threat as far east as the western Corn Belt and as far south as central sections of the Rockies and Plains. Much of the country will experience near- or above-normal temperatures, although a brief shot of cool air will arrive early next week across the Midwest and Northeast. Precipitation will be scarce during the next 5 days, with meaningful amounts likely limited to the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Florida. Tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico could be curbed by the arrival of a cold front, although the front--in conjunction with ample tropical moisture--should result in showers lingering into next week across Florida's peninsula. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 9 ? 13 calls for the likelihood of near- or above-normal temperatures and near- or below-normal precipitation across much of the country. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be confined to the eastern U.S., excluding southern Florida, while wetter-than-normal weather should be limited to Florida, southern Georgia, and an area stretching from northern and central California and southern Oregon to the Four Corners region. Contact: Brad Rippey, Agricultural Meteorologist, USDA/OCE/WAOB, Washington, D.C. (202-720-2397)

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Product issued by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, Office of the Chief Economist. The outlook is an interpretation of National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and products. Next scheduled noon release of the "Agricultural Weather Highlights" will be Friday, October 11, 2024. On other weekdays, this product will be posted by 9 am ET.

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