Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2022: Q4 - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2024: Q3
AUGUST 16, 2024
Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow--the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2024: Q3
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
5
4 Atlanta Fed
GDPNow estimate
3
2 Blue Chip consensus
1
0
Range of top 10 and bottom 10 average forecasts
-1 24-Jun 30-Jun
6-Jul
12-Jul 18-Jul 24-Jul 30-Jul
5-Aug 11-Aug 17-Aug
Date of forecast
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP growth estimates for 2024: Q3
Date
Major Releases
GDP*
26-Jul Initial GDPNow 24:Q3 forecast 2.8
1-Aug ISM Manuf. Index, Constr. spending 2.5
2-Aug Emp. situation, M3-2 Manuf, Auto sales 2.9
5-Aug
ISM Services Index
2.9
6-Aug
International trade
2.9
8-Aug
Wholesale Trade
2.9
Producer Price Index, Monthly Treasury
13-Aug
Statement (8/12)
2.9
14-Aug
Consumer Price Index
2.9
Retail trade, Industrial production,
15-Aug
Import/Export Prices
2.4
16-Aug
Housing starts
2.0
*Note: Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2024: Q3, growth rates and changes
Date 25-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 1-Aug
Major Releases Latest BEA estimate for 24:Q1 Latest BEA estimate for 24:Q2 Initial GDPNow 24:Q3 forecast ISM Manuf. Index, Constr. spending
GDP 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.5
EquipPCE ment
1.5 1.6 2.3 11.6 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.6
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
7.7 3.4 16.0 4.5 -3.3 -1.4 6.1 -1.5 -1.9 6.1 -2.0 -1.3
Change
in net Change
Govt. Exports Imports exp. in CIPI
1.8 1.6 6.1 -42 -26
3.1 2.0 6.9 -47 43
2.4 4.1 2.8
1
0
2.3 3.6 2.2
3
-3
2-Aug Emp. situation, M3-2 Manuf, Auto sales
5-Aug
ISM Services Index
6-Aug
International trade
8-Aug
Wholesale Trade
Producer Price Index, Monthly Treasury
13-Aug
Statement (8/12)
14-Aug
Consumer Price Index
Retail trade, Industrial production,
15-Aug
Import/Export Prices
16-Aug
Housing starts
2.9 2.9 2.6 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.8 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.6 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.6 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.6 2.7
2.9 3.0 2.5 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.5 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.6 2.7
2.4 3.0 1.7 5.9 -2.2 -1.5 2.0 2.9 1.9 2.0 3.0 1.7 5.9 -2.2 -11.7 2.0 2.8 1.9
3
9
3
9
-2
9
-2 10
-2
9
-2
9
1 -16 1 -16
Maximum forecast of real GDP growth
8-Aug
Wholesale Trade
Minimum forecast of real GDP growth
16-Aug
Housing starts
2.9 3.0 2.5 5.9 -1.9 -1.5 2.1 3.6 2.7 2.0 3.0 1.7 5.9 -2.2 -11.7 2.0 2.8 1.9
-2 10 1 -16
Note: The first two rows are published BEA estimates for the most recent two quarters. Rows including and below row three are GDPNow forecasts. CIPI is "change in private inventories." Changes in net exports and CIPI are both in billions of 2017 dollars (SAAR). All other numbers are quarterly percent changes (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "TrackingHistory" in the online Excel file for the entire history. Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2024: Q3, contributions to growth
Date 25-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 1-Aug
Major Releases Latest BEA estimate for 24:Q1 Latest BEA estimate for 24:Q2 Initial GDPNow 24:Q3 forecast ISM Manuf. Index, Constr. spending
2-Aug Emp. situation, M3-2 Manuf, Auto sales
5-Aug
ISM Services Index
6-Aug
International trade
8-Aug
Wholesale Trade
Producer Price Index, Monthly Treasury
13-Aug
Statement (8/12)
14-Aug
Consumer Price Index
Retail trade, Industrial production,
15-Aug
Import/Export Prices
16-Aug
Housing starts
GDP 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.5
EquipPCE ment
0.98 0.08 1.57 0.55 1.99 0.15 1.78 0.13
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
0.41 0.10 0.59 0.24 -0.10 -0.05 0.33 -0.05 -0.08 0.33 -0.06 -0.05
Net Govt. exports
0.31 -0.65 0.53 -0.72 0.42 0.05 0.40 0.08
CIPI -0.42 0.82 0.00 -0.06
2.9 1.96 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.37 0.07 0.17 2.9 1.95 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.37 0.08 0.17 2.9 2.02 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.37 0.01 0.17 2.9 2.02 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.37 0.01 0.18
2.9 2.02 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.36 0.01 0.17 2.9 2.02 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.36 0.01 0.17
2.4 2.03 0.09 0.32 -0.07 -0.06 0.36 0.05 -0.28 2.0 2.03 0.08 0.32 -0.07 -0.50 0.36 0.05 -0.28
Maximum forecast of real GDP growth
8-Aug
Wholesale Trade
Minimum forecast of real GDP growth
16-Aug
Housing starts
2.9 2.02 0.13 0.32 -0.06 -0.06 0.37 0.01 0.18 2.0 2.03 0.08 0.32 -0.07 -0.50 0.36 0.05 -0.28
Note: The first two rows are published BEA estimates for the most recent two quarters. Rows including and below row three are GDPNow forecasts. CIPI is "change in private inventories." All numbers are percentage-point contributions to GDP growth (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "ContribHistory" in the online Excel file for the entire history. Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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