Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for 2016: Q2
[Pages:4]FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for 2016: Q2
MAY 4, 2016
Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast for 2016: Q2
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
3.5
3.0
2.5 Range of top
Blue Chip consensus
10 and bottom
10 forecasts
2.0
Atlanta Fed
1.5
GDPNow forecast
1.0 5-Apr
9-Apr
13-Apr
17-Apr 21-Apr 25-Apr Date of forecast
29-Apr
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts
3-May
Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts for 2016: Q2, growth rates and changes
Date
Major Releases
29-Apr
Initial nowcast
2-May Constr. spending, ISM Manufacturing
4-May Intl. trade, M3 Manuf., ISM Nonman.
GDP 1.8 1.8 1.7
EquipPCE ment
2.8 0.6 2.6 -0.6 2.6 -1.4
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
2.6 -6.3 2.1 2.6 -3.9 3.9 2.6 -3.9 4.0
Change
in net Change
Govt. Exports Imports exp. in CIPI
0.9 2.7 2.2
-1 -11
0.8 2.3 1.9
0 -10
0.8 2.4 2.0
0 -12
Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories". Changes in net exports and CIPI are both in billions of 2009 dollars (SAAR). All other numbers are quarterly percent changes (SAAR).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts for 2016: Q2, contributions to growth
Date
Major Releases
29-Apr
Initial nowcast
2-May Constr. spending, ISM Manufacturing
4-May Intl. trade, M3 Manuf., ISM Nonman.
GDP 1.8 1.8 1.7
EquipPCE ment
1.90 0.03 1.76 -0.03 1.75 -0.08
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
0.11 -0.17 0.08 0.10 -0.10 0.14 0.10 -0.10 0.14
Net Govt. exports
0.17 -0.01 0.15 0.01 0.15 0.00
CIPI -0.27 -0.24 -0.29
Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories." All numbers are percentage point contributions to GDP growth (SAAR).
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