Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4
DECEMBER 23, 2020
Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow--the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2020: Q4
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)
12
10
Atlanta Fed
GDPNow estimate
8
Range of top 10 and bottom 10
average forecasts
6
Blue Chip consensus 4
2
0 25-Sep 4-Oct 13-Oct 22-Oct 31-Oct 9-Nov 18-Nov 27-Nov 6-Dec 15-Dec 24-Dec
Date of forecast
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey.
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP growth estimates for 2020: Q4
Date 30-Oct
Major Releases Initial nowcast
GDP* Date
Major Releases
GDP* Date
GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
2.2 25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales 11.0 22-Dec
2-Nov ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending
3-Nov
M3-2 Manufacturing
International trade, ISM
4-Nov Nonmanufacturing Index, Auto sales
Employment situation,
6-Nov
Wholesale trade
Consumer Price Index, Monthly
12-Nov
Treasury Budget
13-Nov
Producer Price Index
Retail Trade, Industrial Production,
17-Nov
Import/Export prices
18-Nov 19-Nov
Housing Starts Existing-home sales
3.4 1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending
3.3 2-Dec
Auto sales
3.2 3-Dec 3.5 4-Dec
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index International trade, Employment
situation, M3-2 Manufacturing
3.5 9-Dec 3.5 10-Dec
Wholesale trade Consumer Price Index, Monthly
Treasury Budget
5.4 11-Dec
5.6 15-Dec 6.0 16-Dec
17-Dec
Producer Price Index Industrial Production, Import/Export
prices Retail Trade Housing Starts
11.1 23-Dec 10.9
10.8
11.2
11.2
11.1
11.1
11.3 11.0 11.1
Major Releases
GDP, Existing-home sales Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
New-home sales
GDP* 11.2 10.4
*Note: Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2020: Q4, growth rates and changes
Date
Major Releases
30-Oct
Initial nowcast
19-Nov
Existing-home sales
GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales
1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending
2-Dec
Auto sales
3-Dec ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
International trade, Employment
4-Dec situation, M3-2 Manufacturing
9-Dec
Wholesale trade
Consumer Price Index, Monthly
10-Dec
Treasury Budget
11-Dec
Producer Price Index
Industrial Production, Import/Export
15-Dec
prices
16-Dec
Retail Trade
17-Dec
Housing Starts
22-Dec
GDP, Existing-home sales
Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
23-Dec
New-home sales
GDP 2.2 6.0
11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8
11.2 11.2
11.1 11.1
11.3 11.0 11.1 11.2
10.4
EquipPCE ment
-1.0 21.7 2.7 26.6
6.2 28.3 6.1 28.2 6.0 27.6 5.9 27.5
5.4 28.1 5.4 28.1
5.4 28.1 5.4 28.1
5.2 27.9 4.7 27.8 4.8 27.9 4.7 28.0
5.1 28.1
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
7.7 -2.6 22.6 7.5 -1.9 34.2
Change
in net Change
Govt. Exports Imports exp. in CIPI
4.1 8.5 19.5 -100
78
4.5 9.9 20.4 -99 101
8.6 -1.9 29.6 8.6 -5.7 32.8 8.6 -5.7 32.6 8.5 -5.8 32.5
4.4 13.1 20.4 4.9 13.1 20.4 4.9 12.9 20.3 4.9 12.9 20.2
-84 214 -83 213 -83 212 -83 212
8.3 -6.0 31.5 8.3 -6.0 31.5
5.2 10.7 18.5 5.2 10.7 18.5
-82 244 -82 243
8.3 -6.0 31.4 8.3 -6.0 31.5
5.0 10.7 18.5 5.0 10.7 18.5
-82 243 -82 241
8.3 -5.5 31.1 8.3 -5.6 31.0 8.3 -5.5 33.1 8.6 -5.5 32.5
5.0 10.5 18.3 5.0 10.4 18.2 5.0 10.5 18.3 5.1 10.6 18.6
-82 261 -82 263 -82 263 -83 268
8.6 -5.6 29.7 5.1 10.5 18.5 -83 221
Maximum forecast of real GDP growth
Industrial Production, Import/Export
15-Dec
prices
Minimum forecast of real GDP growth
30-Oct
Initial nowcast
11.3 5.2 27.9 2.2 -1.0 21.7
8.3 -5.5 31.1 7.7 -2.6 22.6
5.0 10.5 18.3 -82 261
4.1 8.5 19.5 -100
78
Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories." Changes in net exports and CIPI are both in billions of 2012 dollars (SAAR). All other numbers are quarterly percent changes (SAAR). Table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "TrackingHistory" in the online excel file for the entire history.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2020: Q4, contributions to growth
Date
Major Releases
30-Oct
Initial nowcast
19-Nov
Existing-home sales
GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales
1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending
2-Dec
Auto sales
3-Dec ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
International trade, Employment
4-Dec situation, M3-2 Manufacturing
9-Dec
Wholesale trade
Consumer Price Index, Monthly
10-Dec
Treasury Budget
11-Dec
Producer Price Index
Industrial Production, Import/Export
15-Dec
prices
16-Dec
Retail Trade
17-Dec
Housing Starts
22-Dec
GDP, Existing-home sales
Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,
23-Dec
New-home sales
GDP 2.2 6.0
11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8
11.2 11.2
11.1 11.1
11.3 11.0 11.1 11.2
10.4
EquipPCE ment
-0.69 1.15 1.83 1.41
Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.
0.36 -0.07 0.89 0.35 -0.05 1.32
Net Govt. exports
0.75 -1.63 0.81 -1.63
4.28 1.51 0.42 -0.05 1.19 0.81 -1.36 4.26 1.51 0.42 -0.16 1.31 0.91 -1.36 4.13 1.47 0.42 -0.16 1.30 0.91 -1.35 4.08 1.47 0.42 -0.16 1.29 0.91 -1.35
3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.96 -1.36 3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.96 -1.36
3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.93 -1.36 3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.93 -1.36
3.58 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.25 0.93 -1.35 3.29 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.24 0.93 -1.35 3.31 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.32 0.93 -1.35 3.30 1.50 0.42 -0.16 1.29 0.93 -1.37
3.56 1.50 0.42 -0.16 1.19 0.93 -1.37
CIPI 1.49 1.94
4.21 4.20 4.17 4.17
4.80 4.79
4.78 4.75
5.14 5.18 5.18 5.27
4.33
Maximum forecast of real GDP growth
Industrial Production, Import/Export
15-Dec
prices
Minimum forecast of real GDP growth
30-Oct
Initial nowcast
11.3 3.58 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.25 0.93 -1.35 5.14 2.2 -0.69 1.15 0.36 -0.07 0.89 0.75 -1.63 1.49
Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories." All numbers are percentage-point contributions to GDP growth (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "ContribHistory" in the online excel file for the entire history.
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