Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow--the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2020: Q4

Quarterly percent change (SAAR)

12

10

Atlanta Fed

GDPNow estimate

8

Range of top 10 and bottom 10

average forecasts

6

Blue Chip consensus 4

2

0 25-Sep 4-Oct 13-Oct 22-Oct 31-Oct 9-Nov 18-Nov 27-Nov 6-Dec 15-Dec 24-Dec

Date of forecast

Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP growth estimates for 2020: Q4

Date 30-Oct

Major Releases Initial nowcast

GDP* Date

Major Releases

GDP* Date

GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

2.2 25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales 11.0 22-Dec

2-Nov ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending

3-Nov

M3-2 Manufacturing

International trade, ISM

4-Nov Nonmanufacturing Index, Auto sales

Employment situation,

6-Nov

Wholesale trade

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

12-Nov

Treasury Budget

13-Nov

Producer Price Index

Retail Trade, Industrial Production,

17-Nov

Import/Export prices

18-Nov 19-Nov

Housing Starts Existing-home sales

3.4 1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending

3.3 2-Dec

Auto sales

3.2 3-Dec 3.5 4-Dec

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index International trade, Employment

situation, M3-2 Manufacturing

3.5 9-Dec 3.5 10-Dec

Wholesale trade Consumer Price Index, Monthly

Treasury Budget

5.4 11-Dec

5.6 15-Dec 6.0 16-Dec

17-Dec

Producer Price Index Industrial Production, Import/Export

prices Retail Trade Housing Starts

11.1 23-Dec 10.9

10.8

11.2

11.2

11.1

11.1

11.3 11.0 11.1

Major Releases

GDP, Existing-home sales Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

New-home sales

GDP* 11.2 10.4

*Note: Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2020: Q4, growth rates and changes

Date

Major Releases

30-Oct

Initial nowcast

19-Nov

Existing-home sales

GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales

1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending

2-Dec

Auto sales

3-Dec ISM Nonmanufacturing Index

International trade, Employment

4-Dec situation, M3-2 Manufacturing

9-Dec

Wholesale trade

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

10-Dec

Treasury Budget

11-Dec

Producer Price Index

Industrial Production, Import/Export

15-Dec

prices

16-Dec

Retail Trade

17-Dec

Housing Starts

22-Dec

GDP, Existing-home sales

Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

23-Dec

New-home sales

GDP 2.2 6.0

11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8

11.2 11.2

11.1 11.1

11.3 11.0 11.1 11.2

10.4

EquipPCE ment

-1.0 21.7 2.7 26.6

6.2 28.3 6.1 28.2 6.0 27.6 5.9 27.5

5.4 28.1 5.4 28.1

5.4 28.1 5.4 28.1

5.2 27.9 4.7 27.8 4.8 27.9 4.7 28.0

5.1 28.1

Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.

7.7 -2.6 22.6 7.5 -1.9 34.2

Change

in net Change

Govt. Exports Imports exp. in CIPI

4.1 8.5 19.5 -100

78

4.5 9.9 20.4 -99 101

8.6 -1.9 29.6 8.6 -5.7 32.8 8.6 -5.7 32.6 8.5 -5.8 32.5

4.4 13.1 20.4 4.9 13.1 20.4 4.9 12.9 20.3 4.9 12.9 20.2

-84 214 -83 213 -83 212 -83 212

8.3 -6.0 31.5 8.3 -6.0 31.5

5.2 10.7 18.5 5.2 10.7 18.5

-82 244 -82 243

8.3 -6.0 31.4 8.3 -6.0 31.5

5.0 10.7 18.5 5.0 10.7 18.5

-82 243 -82 241

8.3 -5.5 31.1 8.3 -5.6 31.0 8.3 -5.5 33.1 8.6 -5.5 32.5

5.0 10.5 18.3 5.0 10.4 18.2 5.0 10.5 18.3 5.1 10.6 18.6

-82 261 -82 263 -82 263 -83 268

8.6 -5.6 29.7 5.1 10.5 18.5 -83 221

Maximum forecast of real GDP growth

Industrial Production, Import/Export

15-Dec

prices

Minimum forecast of real GDP growth

30-Oct

Initial nowcast

11.3 5.2 27.9 2.2 -1.0 21.7

8.3 -5.5 31.1 7.7 -2.6 22.6

5.0 10.5 18.3 -82 261

4.1 8.5 19.5 -100

78

Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories." Changes in net exports and CIPI are both in billions of 2012 dollars (SAAR). All other numbers are quarterly percent changes (SAAR). Table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "TrackingHistory" in the online excel file for the entire history.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2020: Q4, contributions to growth

Date

Major Releases

30-Oct

Initial nowcast

19-Nov

Existing-home sales

GDP, Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

25-Nov Adv Econ Indicators, New-home sales

1-Dec ISM Manuf Index, Constr spending

2-Dec

Auto sales

3-Dec ISM Nonmanufacturing Index

International trade, Employment

4-Dec situation, M3-2 Manufacturing

9-Dec

Wholesale trade

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

10-Dec

Treasury Budget

11-Dec

Producer Price Index

Industrial Production, Import/Export

15-Dec

prices

16-Dec

Retail Trade

17-Dec

Housing Starts

22-Dec

GDP, Existing-home sales

Pers Inc/PCE, Adv dur manuf,

23-Dec

New-home sales

GDP 2.2 6.0

11.0 11.1 10.9 10.8

11.2 11.2

11.1 11.1

11.3 11.0 11.1 11.2

10.4

EquipPCE ment

-0.69 1.15 1.83 1.41

Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.

0.36 -0.07 0.89 0.35 -0.05 1.32

Net Govt. exports

0.75 -1.63 0.81 -1.63

4.28 1.51 0.42 -0.05 1.19 0.81 -1.36 4.26 1.51 0.42 -0.16 1.31 0.91 -1.36 4.13 1.47 0.42 -0.16 1.30 0.91 -1.35 4.08 1.47 0.42 -0.16 1.29 0.91 -1.35

3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.96 -1.36 3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.96 -1.36

3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.93 -1.36 3.77 1.50 0.41 -0.17 1.26 0.93 -1.36

3.58 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.25 0.93 -1.35 3.29 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.24 0.93 -1.35 3.31 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.32 0.93 -1.35 3.30 1.50 0.42 -0.16 1.29 0.93 -1.37

3.56 1.50 0.42 -0.16 1.19 0.93 -1.37

CIPI 1.49 1.94

4.21 4.20 4.17 4.17

4.80 4.79

4.78 4.75

5.14 5.18 5.18 5.27

4.33

Maximum forecast of real GDP growth

Industrial Production, Import/Export

15-Dec

prices

Minimum forecast of real GDP growth

30-Oct

Initial nowcast

11.3 3.58 1.49 0.41 -0.16 1.25 0.93 -1.35 5.14 2.2 -0.69 1.15 0.36 -0.07 0.89 0.75 -1.63 1.49

Note: CIPI is "change in private inventories." All numbers are percentage-point contributions to GDP growth (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "ContribHistory" in the online excel file for the entire history.

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download