THE SUV SEGMENT OUTLOOK STUDY

[Pages:61]THE SUV SEGMENT OUTLOOK STUDY

FEBRUARY 2019

Has the SUV Market Peaked?

The SUV Market Does Not Appear to Be Peaking in the Short Term....However, There are Signs of Saturation

SUV Sales have grown 16% in the last 2 years. 6.5+ million units were sold in 2018

Are there indications of SUVs peaking?

Sales - 6.5+ million units and forecasted to grow Consideration - highest 4x as many SUVs from 30 years ago

Are there indications of SUV Saturation?

Days supply increasing Average ATP increasing Increased competition from used market More SUV launches

Source: OEM Press Release Sales Data

Utility Sales Overtook Car Sales in 2016 and is Now the Most Popular Segment

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

0% 2010

Car

2011

SUV

2012

2013

Truck

Van

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: OEM Press Release Data. Sales for all segments (non-lux)

SUV Segment Shares Forecasted to Grow

Segment

COMPACT SUV

2015

2025

20%

29%

MID-SIZE SUV

16%

18%

COMPACT CAR

16%

13%

MID-SIZE CAR

20%

13%

MID-SIZE TRUCK

3%

4%

FULL-SIZE TRUCK

12%

14%

Source: IHS Markit, U.S. Automotive Sales Forecast April 2018

Consideration for SUVs Has Been Trending Upwards

SEGMENT CONSIDERATION

Non-Luxury Utility Vehicle Non-Luxury Sedan Luxury Utility Vehicle

Luxury Sedan

21% 18%

56% 40%

Pickup Non-Luxury Coupe Minivan

17% 9% 6%

Luxury Coupe 4%

TRENDED SUV CONSIDERATION

Non-luxury Utility Vehicles

Luxury Utility Vehicles

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40% 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Brand Watch Please select at most 5 vehicles that you are currently shopping.

The Number of SUV Offerings Has Dramatically Increased in the Past 30 Years

NEW SUBCOMPACT SUV SEGMENT CREATED

SEGMENT

Model Count

1990 1998 2008 2018

250

# OF VEHICLES

Subcompact SUV

13

200

# of Vehicles

Compact SUV

10

10

20

18

150

Mid-size SUV

5

15

28

23

Fullsize SUV

7

6

11

8

100

Luxury Compact SUV

4

26

50

Luxury Mid-size SUV

3

16

23

Luxury Fullsize SUV

2

5

13

11

Grand Total

24

39

92

122

0

CARS SUVS

1990 168 24

1998 141 39

2008 186 92

2018 202 122

Consumers now have more SUV choices than they ever had before, especially in the smaller sizes that consumer really want.

There are now 4 times as many SUVs as there were 30 years ago. Even though there are more cars today, the segment has only grown by 20% since 1990. Data includes both luxury and nonluxury vehicles.

Source: Buildout Table

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Days Supply SAAR (millions)

Growth May Be at Risk with the Current Days Supply for SUVs...

New Vehicle SAAR

Days Supply - Industry

Days Supply - Cars

Days Supply - Light Trucks

105

95

85

75

65

55

45

35

25

Source: Autodata Days' Supply, United States Bureau of Economic Analysis New Lt. Vehicle SAAR

20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

88

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