STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES

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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

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STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES

NEW STARTS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH DEMAND Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand. The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to new analysis from , whose findings were reported by . Analyzing U.S. census data, the report showed that the 5.9 million single-family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time. Even with an aboveaverage pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market. The current shortfall can be blamed on the epic housing crash of more than a decade ago, brought on by irrational and unscrupulous mortgage lending. With loans available to even the riskiest buyers, builders responded by putting up 1.7 million single-family homes at the peak of the construction boom in 2005, according to the U.S. census. That was about 5 million more than the 20-year average. When the lion's share of those bad mortgages defaulted, and millions of homes went into foreclosure, home construction plummeted. In addition, about 5 million homes were bought by investors and turned into rentals during and after the crisis, further lowering for-sale inventory.

Builders crawled back after that, focusing on mostly higher-end homes, where the margins are more attractive. But lower mortgage rates and the aging millennial population have ignited demand in the last few years, and while builders put up 888,000 homes in 2019, it was still not enough.

"Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb," said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at . "The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market."

Builders are starting to address the entry-level market, offering smaller, more basic floor plans with stripped-down amenities. That should help, but only if millennials are willing to move further away from the cities.

Adding to the supply crunch is the new desire among baby boomers to age in place. Older Americans are not freeing up their homes at the same rate as previous generations did at their age. Part of that is because so many millennials moved back in with their parents during the recession, unable to afford to either rent or buy their own space. That has left a shortage of move-up homes in some communities.

"Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings," added Vivas.

ADVERTISER NEWS Planters has leaked what appears to be its upcoming

Super Bowl spot. That's according to Ad Age, which says fans of Mr. Peanut will want to brace themselves. We'll spare you all the specifics, but the spot features a Nutmobile crash and ends with the words "Mr. Peanut, 1916-2020," appearing across a black screen. No word yet on whether this is the official Super Bowl ad, and if so, if it was leaked intentionally... Target and Whole Foods are among a group of retail stores

in Minneapolis not charging customers five cents for plastic and paper bags at the checkout. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports a new local ordinance, which requires retailers to charge customers a fee for each bag, went into effect Jan. 1. Other retailers within the city limits are adding the bag fee to purchases... Starbucks is launching an ambitious initiative to give more than it takes from the planet. In a public letter, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced a multi-decade commitment and aspiration to becoming a resource-positive company by storing more carbon than it emits, eliminating waste and providing more clean, freshwater than it uses. The announcement included science-based preliminary targets for the reduction of carbon emissions, water use and waste by 2030... A new survey indicates millennial shopping habits are more complex than they are often given credit for. According to the 2020 Consumer Culture Report from public relations agency 5WPR, millennial shoppers age 1834 are more likely to make impulse purchases (64%) than Gen X shoppers age 35-54 (53%) or baby boomer shoppers age 55 and older (36%). However, millennials are also more likely to watch carefully for sales before purchasing an item they really want (90%) than Gen Xers (85%) or baby boomers (79%). In addition, millennials (80%) are much more likely to keep a running wish list of items in their online carts at favorite e-commerce sites than Gen Xers (66%) or baby boomers (31%)... J.C. Penney is trimming its store portfolio. The department store retailer plans to shutter six stores by April 24, along with a call center in Lenexa, Kan. The closings, which were first reported by USA Today, will leave Penney with approximately 850 stores nationwide. The stores scheduled to close are Southgate Mall, Missoula, Mont.; Myrtle Beach Mall, Myrtle Beach, S.C.; Chapel Hill Mall, Akron, Ohio; North Hills Shopping Center, Raleigh, N.C.; Tulsa Promenade, Tulsa, Okla.; and Green Acres Mall, Valley Stream, N.Y. The company says the moves are part of an ongoing review of its store portfolio... Upscale stationery and gifts retailer Papyrus is closing up shop. The company, which is owned by Schurman Retail Group, is reportedly closing all locations. Papyrus once had more than 450 U.S. stores, but has been closing locations in recent years. The company now operates some 260 stores. According to the Chicago Tribune, employees were notified last week that all stores were expected to close in the next four to six weeks, with liquidation sales already underway in stores and online.

SINCLAIR STIRR APP DOWNLOADED 1.6M TIMES AVAILS

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NETWORK NEWS

immediate opening for a Chief Engineer. This person

American Ninja Warrior is returning for a ninth season. is responsible for all studio and

NBC said it has renewed the series for a return this summer. transmission technical operations,

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Hall, the obstacle course competition series will shoot in management team, this position plays a vital role in station

three cities this season: Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and strategic planning, budgeting and day-to-day operations.

St. Louis. The show's national finals will once again take Rochester is a growing family-friendly community, rated as

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Written by Tina Fey and Robert Carlock, the untitled project NETFLIX ADDS 8.8M GLOBAL SUBSCRIBERS IN Q4

stars Danson as a wealthy businessman who runs for mayor Netflix racked up 8.76 million global paid subscribers last

of Los Angeles for all the wrong reasons. Once he wins quarter -- hitting 167.1 million -- beating expectations overall

he has to figure out what he stands for, gain the respect of but still soft on U.S. additions. Earnings in the fourth quarter

his staff, and connect with his teenage daughter, all while popped and revenue came in a hair higher than anticipated,

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a pilot order to Prospect, a single-camera comedy. This is The latest financial and subscriber numbers were hotly

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by Sherry Bilsing-Graham and Ellen Kreamer and to be growing competition. Disney+ and Apple TV+ launched last

directed by Randall Einhorn, Prospect is described as a fall. Two more heavyweight rivals, HBO Max and Peacock,

comedic Western with a feminist twist. An idealistic young will land this spring. Netflix had seen subdued growth in

woman moves to the frontier to be a schoolteacher, but her domestic subscribers versus international even before the

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RuPaul set for Feb. 8. Musical guest for the Feb. 1 show acknowledged that the launch of rival streaming services hurt

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fourth quarter.

1/22/2020

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BLOOMBERG DRIVING TV AD PRICES HIGHER

OUTLOOK: GROWTH FOR AD, MARKETING SPEND

Unprecedented campaign spending by Michael A new study from Winterberry Group indicates that

Bloomberg is a windfall for television stations across advertising and marketing spending should grow significantly

the U.S., but it might not be such a good thing for others this year. The specialist management consultancy sees

-- including the former New York City mayor's fellow spending reaching $389.5 billion, an increase of 7.2 percent.

Democratic candidates, Politico reports.

That projected 2020 increase follows 2.7 percent growth

Just two months into his campaign, Bloomberg -- who last year and 15.1 percent in 2018.

as of yesterday had a net worth of more than $60 billion, More than 57 percent of the total spending (or $223.1

according to Forbes -- has already spent nearly a quarter billion) will be on offline channels like linear TV.

of a billion dollars.

Addressable TV should see the largest boost, with

Eight weeks into his presidential campaign, Bloomberg Winterberry Group predicting a 44 percent increase to $2.9

has already spent more money on

billion. Linear TV is anticipated to see

advertising ($248 million) than most

a 1.9 percent increase to $65.5 billion,

candidates could spend in years. That amount has squeezed TV ad inventory in nearly every state, lowering supply and causing stations to raise ad prices at a time of high demand, as candidates

My cat's birthday is tomorrow and my mean boss said I still have to come to work this week.

making it the largest category for offline spending, followed by experiential/ sponsorship, which is expected to increase 3.1 percent to $48.5 billion. Online advertising is anticipated to grow

around the country gear up for their

across the board this year, increasing

primaries.

14.5 percent to $166.4 billion.

Average prices for political ads across the nation have increased by 20



The study also sees a continued shift by consumers to pursue experiences

percent since Bloomberg's campaign

(+6.3%) over actual goods. It also says

commenced, Politico says. But media buyers cited in the top attributes to secure brand trust are reliability (40%),

the report say Bloomberg's pursuit of the Democratic relevance (32%) and credibility (29%).

presidential nomination isn't the only factor driving prices

higher: Inventory is growing increasingly scarce as early POLL: APPLE TV+ STRUGGLES TO GAIN TRACTION

primary states will begin voting in the upcoming weeks. Only around 5 percent of U.S. streaming homes tried the

This is leading to concerns that down-ballot candidates new Apple TV+ SVOD service in the fourth quarter. Nearly

won't be able to execute advertising strategies.

20 million U.S. streaming households, around 23 percent

"There is no doubt that rates are being driven up and of the overall market, used Disney+ in December. And 90

it is making it much more expensive for congressional percent of those users also subscribe to Netflix.

candidates and other down-ballot races to communicate That's according to a poll of 18,946 consumers in the fourth

in their own primaries," a Democratic strategist said. "In quarter, conducted by HarrisX for equity research firm

some ways that is difficult for candidates and campaigns MoffettNathanson. The findings were reported by Next TV.

that have been disciplined about raising money and are The data revealed a maturing U.S. streaming market --

now faced with the fact that their money will not go nearly penetration by streaming services in the U.S. only grew from

as far."

68 percent to 72 percent from October 2018 to December

2019, after expanding much faster previously in the decade.

HEDGE FUND PUSHES TEGNA FOR SALE, MERGER The news about Disney+'s fast uptake isn't surprising, with

Another large investor in Tegna wants the U.S. regional Disney revealing close to 10 million signups in the first 24

TV station operator to pursue a merger or sale, arguing a hours after the service's Nov. 12 launch. Users, the HarrisX

tie-up could be very valuable at a time the industry is facing poll said, were engaged, with 41 percent of them streaming

a wave of consolidation, two people familiar with the matter content daily.

tell Reuters.

Hedge fund HG Vora Capital Management, which owns about 4 percent of Tegna's stock, is the third investor to

MONDAY NIELSEN RATINGS - LIVE + SAME DAY

push for changes at Tegna. Standard General has laid the

groundwork for a proxy contest and Donerail also wants

changes to be made.

Standard General, which owns 9.7 percent of Tegna shares,

last week said that it plans to nominate four directors to the

company's 11-member board, including Soohyung Kim,

Standard General's founder and portfolio manager.

Talks between Tegna and Standard General about board

seats have faltered, with the company saying publicly

that it has "serious concerns (about Kim's) prior business

and board service." Tegna said it will evaluate Standard

General's three other nominees.

HG Vora, run by Parag Vora, is likely to be supportive

of Standard General's board nominees, one of the people

said. HG Vora oversees $5.3 billion in assets.

1/22/2020

The Daily News of TV Sales @

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