THE 2030 SPIKE - CIA

THE 2030 SPIKE

COUNTDOWN TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE

Colin Mason

London ? Sterling, VA

First published in the UK and USA in 2003 by Earthscan Publications Ltd

Reprinted 2004

Copyright ? Colin Mason, 2003

All rights reserved

ISBN: 1-84407-018-2

Typesetting by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK Printed and bound in the UK by Creative Print and Design (Wales), Ebbw Vale Cover design by Ruth Bateson

For a full list of publications please contact:

Earthscan 8?12 Camden High Street, London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email: earthinfo@earthscan.co.uk Web: earthscan.co.uk

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Earthscan publishes in association with WWF-UK and the International Institute for Environment and Development

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Mason, Colin, 1926The 2030 spike : countdown to global catastrophe / Colin Mason. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-84407-018-2 (hbk.) 1. Twenty-first century--Forecasts. 2. Environmental policy. 3. Natural

resources. 4. Social prediction. 5. Catastrophical, The. I. Title: Two thousand thirty spike. II. Title: Two thousand and thirty spike. III. Title: Twenty-thirty spike. IV. Title.

CB161.M384 2003 303.49--dc21

2003006476

This book is printed on elemental chlorine-free paper

CONTENTS

About the Author

v

PART ONE: CRISIS MODE

1 The Drivers

3

2 Running Out of Fuel: The Coming Energy Crunch

9

3 Population and Poverty

21

4 Climate: Too Hot or Too Cold?

29

5 Famines: Food and Water

41

6 One World?

53

7 The Fourth Horseman

62

PART TWO: DIRECTIONS

8 Which Way Science?

75

9 In the Genes: New Plants ? and People?

83

10 The Values of the Sea

94

11 Multinationals: Good Business or Bad?

101

12 The Trouble with Money

110

PART THREE: UPGRADING THE INDIVIDUAL

13 The Pursuit of Happiness

123

14 Love, Family and Freedom

130

15 Habitat: The Dilemma of the Cities

135

16 Making Education Work

145

17 Health and Wealth

153

18 Religion: The Cement of Society?

161

iv THE 2030 SPIKE

PART FOUR: THE NEW SOCIETY?

19 The Mechanics of Change

171

20 Automation and Employment

178

21 Travelling Less?

186

22 Working Online

192

23 The Information Overload

199

24 The Toxic Culture

205

25 Running the Show

211

26 Conclusion: World to Come

220

Notes

230

Index

244

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