Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.

March 16, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Bulls & Bears Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 AAII Sentiment Bull & Bears

1 2 3 4 5 6-10

March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bulls & Bears

Figure 1.

6

6

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

5

Ratio

Ratio

5

Bull/Bear

Mar 1

0.87

4

Ratio*

Mar 8

0.90

Mar 15

0.84

4

3

3

2

2

1

3/15

1

0

0

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

80

80

75

Percentage

Bulls Bears

75

70

Bulls

Mar 1

29.9

34.5

Mar 8

32.2

35.6

70

65

Bears

Mar 15

30.6

36.5

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

30

3/15

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

50

50

45

Percentage

Correction

Correction

Mar 1

35.6

40

Mar 8

32.2

Mar 15

32.9

35

30

45

40

35 3/15

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10



5

5

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 1 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

Figure 2.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200

700

5200

4700

3/15

4200

3700

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200



700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 3.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600

36600

3/15

31600

26600

21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 2 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

Figure 4.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

3200

(daily, ratio scale)

2700

2200

1700

1200

700

5200

4700

3/15

4200

3700

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200



700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 5.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600

36600

3/15

31600

26600

21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 3 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

Figure 6.

40

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

20

20



0

0

3/15

-20

-20

-40

-40

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Figure 7.

40

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

20

20



0

0

3/15

-20

-20

-40

-40

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 4 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



AAII Sentiment

Figure 8.

100

100

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio* (34.4)

75

75

50

50

3/9

25

25

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

5

5

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio (0.5)

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

3/9

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

80

80

Latest Readings

70

Bulls (24.0)

Bulls Bears 70

Bears (45.8)

Mar 2

30.4

41.4

Mar 9

24.0

45.8

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

3/9

20

20

10

10



0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

Page 5 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull & Bears

Figure 9.

5.5

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

5.0

Bull/Bear Ratio

(4-week average)

4.5

Consumer Confidence

4.0

Expectations Index

3.5

3.0

2.5

140

120

100 Feb

80

2.0 60

1.5

1.0

3/15

40

.5



.0

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 10.

6

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO

S&P 500 Forward P/E* (18.2) 5

Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (0.8) 4

3

2

30

25

20 3/11

15

10 1

3/15



0

5

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.

Page 6 / March 16, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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