Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 1, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1

Global Growth Barometer

2

Economic Surprise Index

3

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

4

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

5

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

7

AAII Sentiment

8

Volatility

9

Volume

10

Dow Theory

11

S&P 500 Moving Averages

12-13

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

14

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016

June 1, 2021 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 1.

850

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

4500 6/1

4000

750

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index

650

3500

3000 6/1

550

2500

2000 450

1500

350 1000



250

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2.

-100

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

300

700

1100

4500

56//212 4000

1500

S&P 500 Index

3500

1900

2300

3000

2700

3100

2500

Initial Unemployment Claims

3500

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,

inverted scale)

3900

2000

4300

4700 5100

1500

5500

1000

5900



6300

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / June 1, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Global Growth Barometer

Figure 3.

4500

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

4000

3500

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1154.8)

S&P 500 Index (4202.0)

3000

4500 6/1

4000

3500

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500 1000

1500

6/1 1000



500

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 4.

200

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

175 S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price*

150

(dollars per barrel)

125

4500 6/1

4000

3500

3000

100

2500

75

2000

5/31

50

1500

25

1000



0

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 2 / June 1, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Economic Surprise Index

Figure 5.

1000

400

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

350

800

300

600

250

200

400

6/1 150

100 200

50

0

6/1

0

-50 -200

-100

-400

-150

-200

-600

S&P 500 minus its

200 day-moving average

-250

-300

-800

Economic Surprise Index

-350



-1000

-400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 6.

25

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent)

23 S&P 500 Forward P/E*

21

19

300

250

200 5/27

150

100

17

50

6/1

0

15

-50

13

-100

11

Economic Surprise Index

-150



9

-200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.

Page 3 / June 1, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download