The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in ...

[Pages:82]The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County

Produced for: Alternative Schools Network

June 12, 2017

Great Cities Institute University of Illinois at Chicago

Great Cities Institute (MC 107), 412 South Peoria Street, Suite 400, Chicago, Illinois 60607-7067 Phone (312) 996-8700 ? Fax (312) 996-8933 ? greatcities.uic.edu ? gcities@uic.edu

Produced for

Alternative Schools Network info@

Authors

Teresa L. C?rdova, Ph.D. Director and Professor tcordova@uic.edu

Matthew D. Wilson Economic Development Planner mwilso25@uic.edu

Research Assistant

Shubhayan Ukil

Acknowledgements

Timothy O. Imeokparia, Ph.D., AICP

Jackson C. Morsey

v1.5

Table of Contents

i Executive Summary

Full Report 1 Introduction 4 Lower Educational Attainment, Lower Revenues 9 Employment to Population Ratios for Teens and Young Adults

from 1960 to 2015 19 Out of School and Out of Work Rates for Teens and Young Adults

from 1960 to 2015 27 Spatial Distributions of Joblessness, Out of School

and Out of Work Rates, Jobs, and Job Access 48 Conclusion

Appendix I Appendix A: Definitions, Data Sources and Methodology III Appendix B: Illinois and U.S. Data XII Appendix C: Great Cities Institute Reports on Youth Joblessness XIII Appendix D: Out of School and Out of Work By PUMA XV Appendix E: Out of Work and Out of School and Out of Work

in Cook County, 2014 and 2015

Executive Summary This report, The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County, is the fourth report produced by UIC's Great Cities Institute (GCI) for the Alternative Schools Network (ASN).

This latest report from UIC's Great Cities Institute updates data on youth joblessness for Cook County from its 2016 report;1 compiles and calculates longitudinal employment data dating back to 1960; identifies the location of jobs within Cook County in 2014; maps the number of jobs accessible via public transit to people living in Chicago's Community Areas in 2014; and calculates individuals' net fiscal contribution on the tax base, by levels of educational attainment.

The analysis contained in this report was driven by the following questions: ? Are there impacts on the tax base associated with individuals who drop out of high school that can be measured

in lost tax revenues? ? If we look at long-term patterns of joblessness in Cook County (from 1960-2015), how do the trends compare

across groups and to trends in Chicago over the same time periods? ? How do conditions of joblessness in Cook County compare to those in Chicago, Illinois and the U.S.? ? Where are jobs located within Cook County? ? If within Chicago the jobs are concentrated in the loop, how easily accessible via public transportation are those

jobs to those residents living outside the loop?

What we learned: ? Education Makes a Difference: There is a connection between educational attainment and unemployment and

educational attainment and earnings: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed.

? High Cost to Tax Base: In addition to costs to individuals and households that experience joblessness, there are fiscal impacts associated with those that drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues.

? In Illinois, the difference between the amount of taxes paid over 45 years between an individual without a high school diploma and with a high school diploma is $197,055 meaning that someone without a high school diploma will contribute $197,055 fewer dollars to the tax base.

? Over a lifetime of work (45 years), those with a Master's Degree will contribute over $1,000,000 to the tax base.

? Large Numbers in Cook County of 16 to 24 year olds Out of School, Out of Work, with No High School Diploma: In Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma amounts to 21,518 (6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year).

? City and County Have Remarkably Similar Out of School and Out of Work Rates: While there is some variation between groups at various points in time, since 1960, out of school and out of work rates in Chicago and Cook County follow similar trend lines.

? Joblessness Made Worse by the 2008 Recession: While joblessness is chronic and concentrated for Black and Latino youth, conditions were made worse by the recession, in both Chicago and Cook County, and no group has returned to pre-recession employment levels. While whites and blacks have showed some upward movements, employment levels of Latinos continue to drop.

1 UIC Great Cities Institute (March 2016). A Lost Generation: The Disappearance of Teens and Young Adults from the Job Market in Cook County

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? Job Concentration: There is a concentration of jobs in the Chicago Loop and Northwest Suburbs. ? Jobs Not Accessible: Community Areas in Chicago with high rates of joblessness are the same ones that have the

fewest number of jobs accessible within walking distance or a 30-minute commute time on public transit. In what follows, the relevant data supporting each point is illustrated with charts, tables, figures and maps: ? Education Makes a Difference: There is a connection between educational attainment and unemployment and

educational attainment and earnings: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed

? High Cost to Tax Base: In addition to costs to individuals and households that experience joblessness, there are fiscal impacts associated with those that drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues. ? In Illinois, the difference between the amount of taxes paid over 45 years between an individual without a high school diploma and with a high school diploma is $197,055 meaning that someone without a high school diploma will contribute $197,055 fewer dollars to the tax base.

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? Over a lifetime of work (45 years), those with a Master's Degree will contribute over $1,000,000 to the tax base.

Table 4: Average Annual Taxes Paid and Taxes Paid over 45 Years in Illinois by Educational Attainment, 2016

Educational Attainment

Yearly Taxes Paid

Taxes Paid over 45 Years

Below high school, no high school diploma

$989

$44,505

High school diploma or equivalent

$5,368

$241,560

Some college, no degree

$8,424

$379,080

Associates degree

$9,303

$418,635

Bachelor's

$18,228

$820,260

Master's or Higher

$26,084 $1,173,780

? Large Numbers in Cook County of 16 to 24 year olds Out of School, Out of Work, with No High School Diploma: In Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma amounts to 21,518 (6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year).

Table 6: Percent and Number of the 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 Year Olds Out of School and Out of Work Population without a High School Diploma by Race/Ethnicity in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, and the U.S., 2015

Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois

U.S.

White (non-Hispanic or Latino)

27.7%

30.8%

34.5%

37.7%

n

430

1,274

6,262

196,680

Black (non-Hispanic or Latino)

32.8%

34.6%

41.9%

36.5%

16-19

n

1,991

2,769

4,329

92,194

Hispanic or Latino

27.7%

33.9%

33.7%

41.0%

n

1,100

2,327

3,535

132,738

Total Population (Including all other groups)

30.7%

33.5%

36.8%

38.3%

n

3,623

6,551

14,806

458,271

White (non-Hispanic or Latino)

29.2%

18.6%

19.7%

19.6%

n

1,158

2,021

11,520

323,551

Black (non-Hispanic or Latino)

26.5%

24.3%

27.2%

24.5%

20-24

n Hispanic or Latino

7,299 15.8%

8,482 18.9%

14,623 19.5%

203,974 28.8%

n

2,137

3,740

5,897

260,541

Total Population (Including all other groups)

23.5%

21.2%

22.1%

23.0%

n

11,000

14,967

33,302

847,807

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? City and County Have Remarkably Similar Out of School and Out of Work Rates: While there is some variation between groups at various points in time, since 1960, out of school and out of work rates in Chicago and Cook County follow similar trend lines.

? Joblessness Made Worse by the 2008 Recession: While joblessness is chronic and concentrated for Black and Latino youth, conditions were made worse by the recession, in both Chicago and Cook County, and no group has returned to pre-recession employment levels. While whites and blacks have showed some upward movements, employment levels of Latinos continue to drop.

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