Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

COR PORAT ION

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

Michael Kofman, Katya Migacheva, Brian Nichiporuk, Andrew Radin, Olesya Tkacheva, Jenny Oberholtzer

For more information on this publication, visit t/RR1498

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9606-7

Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. ? Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation

R? is a registered trademark.

Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at

giving/contribute



Preface

This report is the third in a series about the impact and implications of the Ukraine crisis on European security. This report examines covert and conventional operations in Crimea in February and March 2014, as well as the origins of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, its phases of escalation, and the series of events that led to the outbreak of limited conventional war between Russia and Ukraine in summer 2014. These operations offer important insights into Russian approaches and objectives in the conflict.

This report should be of interest to those concerned with Russia's annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Research for this project was conducted from May 2015 to October 2015.

This research was sponsored by the Army Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Office in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Headquarters, Department of the Army, and was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army.

The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD146843.

iii

Contents

Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Figures and Table. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

CHAPTER TWO

The Annexation of Crimea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 How Russia Annexed Crimea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

The Balance of Forces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 A Chronology of Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Russia's Information Campaign.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Characteristics of the Crimean Operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Russian-Crimean History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Cultural Proximity Between Russia and Crimea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Geography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Russia's Force Posture and Transit Arrangements with Ukraine.. . . . . . . . . . 18 Target of Opportunity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Ukrainian Actions Contributing to Russian Success. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Factors Enabling Russia's Operational Successes.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Force Composition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Use of Deception at the Tactical and Strategic Levels.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

v

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download