THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF THE CRIMEAN PENINSULA

THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF THE

CRIMEAN PENINSULA 2014?2015 A Post?Cold War Nuclear Crisis Case Study National Security Report

Jonathon Cosgrove

THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF THE CRIMEAN PENINSULA, 2014?2015

A Post?Cold War Nuclear Crisis Case Study

Jonathon Cosgrove

Copyright ? 2020 The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory LLC. All Rights Reserved.

NSAD-R-20-064

The Russian Invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, 2014?2015

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Contents

Figures.......................................................................................................................................................................................... v Foreword...................................................................................................................................................................................vii Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................... ix

Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Coding the Crisis...............................................................................................................................................................1

Historical Background....................................................................................................................................... 2 Pre-Crisis: Russian Compulsion and Euromaidan..................................................................................................6

The Crisis: Invasion and Annexation of Crimea.......................................................................................... 10 Resolution.......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Evaluation and Analysis.................................................................................................................................. 16

Nuclear Weapons in the Crisis................................................................................................................................... 17 Nuclear Weapon Characteristics............................................................................................................................... 21 US Deliberations and Responses.............................................................................................................................. 23 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................... 24

Appendix Coding of Crimea Case Study Variables................................................................................................ 27 Bibliography............................................................................................................................................................................ 37 Acknowledgments................................................................................................................................................................ 51 About the Author.................................................................................................................................................................. 51

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