130 120 Dow Jones Jan 2020 May 24, 2021 120 100 Jan 2020 ...

May 24, 2021

Chart Watch

4 CAD hits a record high since early 2015

5 Canada has passed the US in 1st vaccine doses

ARC Energy Charts

10 Air travel in the US at nearly 70% of 2019 levels

Visit for more

information on this publication and the Institute

18 US refined product stocks lowest since March ¡®20

47 US rig activity up 30% year to date

¨¢

2.78

¨¢

Broad Equity Markets

1

Spot AECO

$Cdn/GJ

¨¢

61.71

Spot Henry Hub

$US/MMBtu

2.85

0.28

Currency

$US/$Cdn

0.8302 ¨¢

Oil and Gas E&P Indices

2

Daily Index Values; January 2020 to Present

Indexed to

Jan 2020

130

Spot AECO Basis

$US/MMBtu

¨¢

66.20

Edmonton Light

$US/B

¨¢

Spot WTI Crude

$US/B

Daily Index Values; January 2020 to Present

Indexed to

Jan 2020

MSCI Global ESG Index

S&P/TSX Composite

Dow Jones

S&P 500 E&P

S&P/TSX E& P Index

120

120

100

110

80

100

90

60

80

40

70

60

Jan-20

Apr -20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of

the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

Oil & Gas Service and Midstream Indices

3

20

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep -20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21

Apr -21

Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against

each other.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

4

Daily Index Values; January 2020 to Present

Indexed to

Jan 2020

Philadelphia Service I ndex

PSAC Cana dian In dex

S&P/TSX Oil & Gas Storage & T ransport ation In dex

120

Canadian Currency Exchange

Daily Close Values; Rolling 24-Month History

$US/$Cdn

0.84

The Canadian

Dollar hit its

highest level

since 2015.

0.82

Stronger

commodity

prices and BoC

signalling on...

0.80

100

...potential

future rate

hikes have

driven the move.

0.78

80

0.76

0.74

60

0.72

40

0.70

20

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20

Jul-20

Sep -20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21

The performance of Canadian oil and gas service and midstream equities

are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US Oilfield index.

Source: Bloomberg, Petroleum Services Association of Canada

0.68

May-19

Sep -19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep -20

Jan-21

May-21

Much of Canada¡¯s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the

exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits.

Source: Bloomberg

Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language



? 2021 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

ARC Energy Charts 1

May 24, 2021

ARC Energy Charts

Pandemic Recovery

United States: New and Active COVID-19 Cases

5

United States: Daily New Deaths

6

Daily (5-Day Rolling Average); Last 6 Months

New Cases

(Thousands)

300

250

Activ e Cases

(Thousands)

New US COVID Ca ses

Active US C OVID Cases

New US COVID

cases have fallen

to a low since

March of 2020.

150

100

...dose than Americans. Canada

still lags in

second doses.

50

0

10-Nov

08-Dec

05-Jan

02-Feb

02-Mar

30-Mar

7

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

10-Nov

27-A pr

Daily infection rates and active cases of COVID-19 will determine reopening

and recovery of the world¡¯s largest economy.

Source: Worldometer

TomTom Traffic Index: Chicago, U.S.

July 3, 2006

Daily Deaths

(Thousands)

100 00

900 0

800 0

700 0

600 0

500 0

400 0

300 0

200 0

100 0

0

200

At almost 52%,

more Canadians

have received a

first vaccine...

Deaths per Day (5-Day Rolling Average): Last 6 Months

08-Dec

05-Jan

02-Feb

02-Mar

30-Mar

27-A pr

The growth rate of daily deaths is a useful statistic for tracking the progress

of COVID-19 and predicting healthcare needs.

Source: Worldometer

TomTom Traffic Index: Beijing, China

8

2021 Congestion Level Relative to 2019

2021 Congestion Level Relative to 2019

This data is no

longer being

updated for

China.

Traffic congestion levels show a real-time picture of the number of vehicles

on the road; an indication of gasoline demand and economic recovery.

Source: TomTom International BV

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

9

Traffic congestion levels show a real-time picture of the number of vehicles

on the road; an indication of gasoline demand and economic recovery.

Source: TomTom International BV

Initial Claims

(Millions)

Number of Travelers as % of 2019; 7-Day Rolling Average

Continuing Claims

(Millions)

US Initial Jobless C laims

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 12-Mar 26-Mar 09-A pr

TSA Trav eler Throughput

Relativ e to Prior Y ear (%)

6

70%

5

60%

4

50%

Air travel

continues to

increase in the

US.

Flights relative

to 2019 are the

highest since

March 2020.

40%

3

30%

2

1

0

23-A pr 07-May

Jobless claims are an important leading indicator on the state of the

employment situation and the health of the economy.

Source: US Labor Department



TSA Checkpoint Screening Numbers

10

Initial and Continuing Claims

20%

10%

0%

06-Nov

04-Dec

01-Jan

29-Jan

26-Feb

26-Mar

23-A pr

21-May

Monitoring the daily number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints in

the United States is a leading indicator of recovery in air travel.

Source: Transportation Security Administration

? 2021 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

ARC Energy Charts 2

May 24, 2021

ARC Energy Charts

Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil Price and Differential to Brent

11

US Crude Oil Futures

12

Near-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

WTI D iff

WTI ($US/B)

WTI

80

WTI Dif f to Brent ($US/B)

20

18

16

60

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Next 36 Months

July 3, 2006

202 1-05-2 4

WTI $US/B

202 1-04-2 3

70

65

14

12

40

60

10

8

6

20

4

2

0

May-20

55

50

45

0

Jul-20

Sep -20

Nov-20

Jan-21

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

Mar-21

Months

North American crude oil prices can sometimes disconnect from global

prices depending on regional supply and demand dynamics.

Source: Bloomberg

Forward prices for WTI are plotted for the next 36 contracts, and compared

against the same contracts one month prior.

Source: Bloomberg

13

Canadian Heavy Oil Price Differential to WTI

Western Canadian Select (WCS) Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

14 Canadian Light Crude Oil Price Differential to WTI

WTI and Edmonton Light differential; Rolling 12-Month History

WCS ($US/B)

WCS Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

30

WCS Diff.

WCS

60

Edm. Light ($US/B)

Spot WT I

80

Edm. Light Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

20

Spot Edmonton Light

50

25

40

20

30

15

20

10

10

5

0

May-20

Jul-20

Sep -20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

15

40

10

20

5

0

May-20

0

May-21

The differential should reflect quality differences and transportation costs.

Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages.

Source: Bloomberg

Daily NGL Prices as a % of Edmonton Light

15

60

Sep -20

The differential should reflect the transportation cost from Alberta to Cushing.

Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages.

Source: Bloomberg

16

Long and Short Contracts - WTI

NGL Prices at Edmonton, AB, 10 Day Rolling Average Shown

Managed Money - Futures

% of Edm.

Light

Cond ensate

Contracts

Butane (Spot)

500 ,00 0

180 %

Propa ne (Spot)

400 ,00 0

140 %

350 ,00 0

120 %

300 ,00 0

100 %

250 ,00 0

80%

200 ,00 0

60%

150 ,00 0

40%

100 ,00 0

20%

50,000

Aug -19

Dec-19

Apr -20

Aug -20

Dec-20

Apr -21

Natural gas liquids have become critical contributors to producer¡¯s cash flow.

Prices are influenced by the price of oil as well as local supply and demand.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.



Long

450 ,00 0

160 %

0%

Apr -19

0

May-21

Jan-21

0

May-19

Short

Sep -19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep -20

Jan-21

Long contracts take the position that WTI oil price will increase, while short

contracts expect a decline.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

? 2021 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

ARC Energy Charts 3

May 24, 2021

ARC Energy Charts

Crude Oil

US Crude Oil Stocks

17

US Refined Product Stocks

18

Historical Range and Current Year Levels

Historical Range and Current Year Levels

MMB

600

MMB

490

550

5-Year

Max

2021

Refined product

stocks draw by Inventories are

3.5 MMB.

down to the

lowest since

March 2020.

July 3, 2006

2021

470

450

500

5-Year

Max

430

450

410

5-Year

Min

400

5-Year

Average

350

390

5-Year

Average

370

300

5-Year

Min

350

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan

US crude oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices. Stock levels for the

current year are represented by the blue line.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

20

Historical Range and Current Year Levels

%

110

100

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

US Petroleum Product Consumption

Top Three Product Categories; Jan 2020 to Present

MMB/d

5-Year

Max

5-Year

Average

Apr May Jun

Total stocks of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are shown. Stock levels for the

current year are represented by the blue line.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

US Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (%)

19

Feb Mar

11

Gasoline

10

9

8

90

7

6

80

Diesel

5

70

4

2021

5-Year

Min

60

3

Jet

2

1

0

Jan-20

50

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Refinery utilization rates change the supply of refined products, impacting

price. Utilization for the current year is blue.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

21

US Weekly Crude Oil Production

Apr -20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr -21

Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel consumption represent the majority of oil use in

the US.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

US Oil Drilling Activity

22

US Field Production of Crude Oil; 2019 to Present

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts; 2020 to Present

# of Oil Rigs - Play Lev el

800

MMB/d

14

Per mia n (Hor izon tal)

Other

700

600

13

500

12

400

300

11

200

10

9

Jan-19

100

May-19

Sep -19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep -20

Jan-21

May-21

Weekly production is modelled by the EIA. It is less accurate then monthly

reported numbers, but is instructive of up to date changes.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration



0

Jan-20

Apr -20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr -21

Tracking US oil drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of

US oil supply and growth trends.

Source: Baker Hughes

? 2021 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

ARC Energy Charts 4

May 24, 2021

ARC Energy Charts

Crude Oil

US Crude Oil Imports

23

US Exports of Crude Oil and Refined Products

24

Weekly Data; 2017 to Present

MMB/d

Weekly Data; 2017 to Present

Other Imp orts

10

Imp orts fro m Canada

MMB/d

10

July 3, 2006

Crude Oil

Refined Produ cts

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

0

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Crude oil imports from Canada are taking market share from overseas

imports.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Total US Oil Production

25

The US exports more refined products than crude oil. With the rapid growth of

tight oil, most export growth should come from crude oil exports.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

26

OPEC and Russian Oil Production

Monthly; 2010 to Present

Monthly; Rolling 60-Month History

MMB/d

14

Offsho re

12

Onsho re

Saudi and

Russia

12 (MMB/d)

10

11

8

10

Russia

Other OPEC

(MMB/d)

24

22

20

Saudi

6

9

18

4

2

8

0

201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 202 0 202 1

7

Apr -16

The advancement of drilling and completion methods is increasing US crude

oil production.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Alberta Oil Production

27

Millions

MMB/d

28

3.5

Conventional

Apr -18

Apr -19

Apr -20

14

Apr -21

OECD Total Industry Oil Stocks

Monthly; 2012 to Present

Upgrad ed Oil Sands

Non-Upgra ded Oil Sand s

Apr -17

16

OPEC¡¯s production levels relative to its sustainable and spare capacity

influences global crude prices. Note: scale has been expanded.

Source: Bloomberg, Russia Ministry of Energy

Monthly; Conventional and Oil Sands

4.0

Other

OPEC

MMB

3,500

3,250

3.0

2.5

3,000

2.0

2,750

1.5

1.0

2,500

0.5

0.0

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21

Most of Canada¡¯s oil production comes from Alberta; split between oil

sands and conventional production.

Source: Alberta Energy Regulator



2,250

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

OECD stock levels can affect crude oil prices.

Source: International Energy Agency

? 2021 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

ARC Energy Charts 5

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download