Thursday, January 26, 2017 Today’s Futures Closes

[Pages:2]Today's Futures Closes:

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Mar 17 Corn May 17 Corn July 17 Corn Sep 17 Corn Dec 17 Corn Mar 17 Oats Mar 17 Meal Mar 17 SB Oil Apr 17 Cattle Apr 17 Feeder Apr 17 Hogs

$3.6375 $3.71 $3.78

$3.8425 $3.9075 $2.5525 $342.4 $34.47 117.575 126.750 67.225

-2.5 -2.5 -2.75 -2.75 -3.0 -4.75 -0.9 -0.40 -1.100 -2.625 -2.925

Mar 17 Soybeans May 17 Soybeans Jul 17 Soybeans Nov 17 Soybeans Jan 18 Soybeans Mar 17 Rapeseed

Mar 17 Cotton May 17 Cotton Dec 17 Cotton

Jan 17 Rice Nov 17 Rice

$10.495 $10.59 $10.6575 $10.2325 $10.26 $527.2 $74.19 $74.70 $71.46 $975.0 $1055.5

-5.75 -5.5 -5.25 -2.25 -2.0 -2.2 +0.31 +0.18 -0.17 -9.0 -1.5

Mar 17 CH Wheat July 17 CH Wheat Mar 17 KC Wheat July 17 KC Wheat Mar 17 MN Wheat Sep 17 MN Wheat Mar Dollar Index

Mar Crude Oil Apr Gold

March S&P Mar Dow Jones

$4.27 $4.55 $4.4025 $4.645 $5.6675 $5.5975 100.375 $54.38 $1192.5 2294.10 20051

+2.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.0 +9.25 +4.5 +0.356 +0.99 -8.0 +0.20 +48

(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Most markets continued to drift lower today, with the exception being wheat. Strength in the US $ probably led to some of that selling in grains ? the $ found support just above its 100-day moving average (purple line).

1. Straight Hedge @ $10.23 (profit?) 2. Minimum Price ? hedge & buy calls

SX $11.50 calls ? 21 cents SX $12.00 calls ? 15 cents

It also seems that there's been some investment money flow this week from commodities to stocks. The Dow closing over 20,000 pts yesterday seems to be encouraging more investment. The soybean market seems content ? for now ? with an Argentine crop size in the 51-54 mmt range vs USDA's estimate at 57 mmt (Brazil still looking at a record above 100 mmt!).

As I mentioned early this week, most ag markets pushed into "overbought" status, and have seen some profit taking take place. The charts at right & on the next page show these new crop markets either breached or nearly breached their winter highs, and have each pushed back below their 9-day moving average lines (red lines). Tomorrow's trade heading into the weekend will be important for establishing next levels of support.

On each chart I've included my comments from today's meetings, with some selling/option/ insurance ideas for managing price risk. (PS - I still like selling soybeans & flooring cotton right now!)

1. If hedging @ $3.95, wait to buy calls when back to $3.75-3.80

2. Buy OTM "courage calls" early to help make sales on a rally later CZ $4.50 calls ? 13 ? cents CZ $5.00 calls ? 7 ? cents

1. Buy 70 cent put/sell 75 cent call to establish floor & accept a ceiling 3.64 ? 3.09 = 0.55 cent net cost 2. Use STAX policy ? 90% coverage, subsidized @ 80%

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Today was Day 8 of setting base price averages in most southern states. Corn, soybean, sorghum, & cotton prices are all currently the same or higher ? at this point ? than a year ago.

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