Monday, May 22, 2017 Tonight’s Futures Closes

[Pages:2]Tonight's Futures Closes:

Monday, May 22, 2017

July 17 Corn Sep 17 Corn Dec 17 Corn Mar 18 Corn May 18 Corn July 17 Oats Dec 17 Meal Dec 17 SB Oil Aug 17 Cattle Aug 17 Feeder Aug 17 Hogs

$3.75 $3.825 $3.9275 $4.025 $4.08 $2.265 $312.1 $33.45 122.025 152.775 79.675

+2.5 +2.75 +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 +4.5 +1.7 +0.61 +0.975 +2.325 +0.450

July 17 Soybeans Aug 17 Soybeans Nov 17 Soybeans Jan 18 Soybeans Mar 18 Soybeans Nov 17 Rapeseed

July 17 Cotton Oct 17 Cotton Dec 17 Cotton July 17 Rice Nov 17 Rice

$9.565 $9.5825 $9.5625 $9.6325 $9.6575 $499.9 $78.39 $74.65 $73.01 $1105.5 $1152.0

+3.5 +4.0 +4.5 +4.25 +3.25 +1.4 -1.06 -1.16 -0.44 +22.5 +21.0

July 17 CH Wheat Sep 17 CH Wheat July 17 KC Wheat Sep 17 KC Wheat July 17 MN Wheat Sep 17 MN Wheat Jun Dollar Index

June Crude Oil June Gold June S&P

June Dow Jones

$4.3425 $4.48 $4.36 $4.53

$5.5925 $5.655 96.870 $50.81 $1260.4 2392.40 20879

-1.0 -0.5 -2.0 -2.0 +3.5 +3.0 -0.160 +0.48 +6.8 +10.90 +92

(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Maybe we're in a weather market. Maybe seasonal price patterns are kicking in for markets like corn & soybeans. And maybe managed funds are ready to cover some other their short positions. Corn, soybeans, & rice each closed higher on the day, and I think you can attribute some or all of the reasons above for the higher closes. I'm watching corn the closest due to a) time in getting the crop planted & out of the ground, b) managed funds are near-record short corn as of Friday's COT report (below right), & c) December corn got within ? cent of its spring high this morning, but closed a bit off of that mark. $3.95 ? is an EXTREMELY significant level ? a trade/close above that mark could trigger a round of fund short-covering, with the next target the winter high near $4.04. Weather & planted acres will certainly be the driver for this market in the days ahead ? see next page! BTW ? it's not too late to buy "Courage Calls" on corn for those who want to aggressively hedge if this market moves higher. See TTMM recording for ideas.

Regarding the managed fund corn position, Diana Klemme wrote:

"Do the fund shorts guarantee a big rally is imminent in corn, soybeans, or wheat? No. So far corn 'rallies' have faltered, as we've seen today. Funds might decide being short is fine even though addtl gains in recent weeks have been minimal as markets drift sideways. But the market could be about ready to expand its range to the upside. Total world crops remain plentiful but photos of soggy corn fields in Iowa in late May could be enough to turn some spec shorts cautious and willing to move to the sidelines, even if today hasn't convinced the specs."

Crop Progress This week's Planting Progress report continues to show most crops near average in planting progress. Here are USDA's estimates for some crops ? there's really nothing in these numbers to boost market prices.

Corn planted Corn emerged Soybeans planted Soybeans emerged Cotton planted Sorghum planted Peanuts planted

85% vs 84% avg 54% vs 55% avg 53% vs 52% avg 19% vs 21% avg 52% vs 50% avg 37% vs 41% avg 67% vs 59% avg

Sunflowers planted 20% vs 14% avg

Rice planted

91% vs 90% avg

Rice emerged

78% vs 76% avg

Rice condition

65% G/E, 11% P/VP

Spring Wheat planted 90% vs 84% avg

Barley planted

88% vs 87% avg

Winter Wheat condition 52% G/E (+1), 15% P/VP (-2)

Weather ? looking ahead, the forecast may be a little bullish. QT's Allen Motew wrote today: "More, More, More" More unstable, wet weather is anticipated this week and next, keeping numerous fields ponded and soggy. Locally excessive rains will continue next week across parts of the Plains and Corn Belt as yet another upper low appears.

Later this week, there will again be a risk of "excessive" rainfall in parts of the Corn Belt, this time in E IL, IN, extreme S MI and NW OH. Field ponding will remain an issue.

7 day totals will be heaviest across the Deep South and Southeast with some 3 and 4 inch amounts. Corn Belt rains will return with 1-2 inch totals from MO to OH. NE, KS, IA, WI and MI see several events leaving lesser .50-1 inch amounts. Widespread, above normal rainfall is expected next week too (May 29-Jun 4) with another Midwest upper low expected to replace the current one.

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