Monday, April 3, 2017 Tonight’s Futures Closes

[Pages:2]Tonight's Futures Closes:

Monday, April 3, 2017

May 17 Corn July 17 Corn Sep 17 Corn Dec 17 Corn Mar 18 Corn May 17 Oats Dec 17 Meal Dec17 SB Oil Jun 17 Cattle May 17 Feeder Jun 17 Hogs

$3.6775 $3.7525 $3.8275

$3.92 $4.0125 $2.255 $312.7 $32.11 110.700 131.800 72.650

+3.5 +3.5 +3.5 +3.75 +4.0 +1.25 +0.3 -0.32 -0.175 -0.900 -1.200

May 17 Soybeans July 17 Soybeans Aug17 Soybeans Nov 17 Soybeans Jan 18 Soybeans Nov 17 Rapeseed

May 17 Cotton July 17 Cotton Dec 17 Cotton

May 17 Rice Nov 17 Rice

$9.3825 $9.4925

$9.52 $9.5025 $9.5625 $476.7 $75.47 $77.12 $73.48 $1007.0 $1069.0

-7.75 -7.75 -7.5 -3.75 -3.5 +0.3 -1.86 -1.47 -0.61 +17.5 +16.5

May 17 CH Wheat July 17 CH Wheat May 17 KC Wheat July 17 KC Wheat May 17 MN Wheat Sep 17 MN Wheat Jun Dollar Index

May Crude Oil April Gold June S&P

June Dow Jones

$4.2775 $4.4025

$4.19 $4.3322

$55.31 $5.465 100.350 $50.28 $1251.1 2356.00 20580

+1.25 +1.25 -1.5 -1.5 -3.25 -2.5 +0.132 -0.32 +3.8 -3.20

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(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)

Today's market was an extension of Friday's trade, with more short-covering in corn & wheat and more selling in soybeans. Friday's Commitment of Traders Report showed managed funds short a whopping 155,000 contracts of corn & short 136,000 contracts of wheat. The big cuts in intended acres of both has triggered a run of covering in both crops starting Friday & continuing today. Wet spring weather could be something to keep funds covering their shorts, esp in the corn market (see next page). I'm still in favor of owning the September short-dated corn call options on December corn futures to back intended hedges this spring/summer (that I want to make from $4.20-4.50 December futures). The $4.50 calls are back up to 10 cents this afternoon (up 2 cents since the report), & the $5.00 calls are back to 4 ? cents.

The soybean market continues to run the other direction, with funds selling off remaining length. They were long 37,000 contracts of soybeans prior to the report, and have probably sold off most of that since. Selling today took May '17 soybeans back to their August low of $9.37 ?. Will that level hold? This market remains grossly oversold, but may continue to slide until the last weak long gets out of the market. November soybeans haven't had it quite so rough, with old crop pressured more from larger Brazilian crop size. But November soybeans did barely break their October low today. With RSI at 21, we'll see if that level will provide a short-term floor.

Crop Progress It's that time of the year when USDA begins sending out weekly Crop Progress reports. Here are a few highlights from today's report.

Cotton Planted ? 4% vs 4% average Sorghum Planted ? 15% vs 12% average Rice Planted ? 17% vs 14% average Oats Planted ? 28% vs 34% average

Weather ? We should soon move beyond the stocks & planting intentions estimates from last week and begin to trade spring & summer

weather. Here are comments & maps from QT's Allen Motew's midday wire on expected April precipitation. April Rains Rain will be common during the first half of April then the North gets wetter and the South dries, with the Gulf States potentially being drier than normal for much of the last two weeks of the month.

Into mid-April (next 10 days) plentiful precipitation will be seen from the Miss Valley and parts of the Plains through the Great Lakes and the Gulf States and Southeast, too. A minimum of 10 day rains show across VA, W KY to the upper Delta and in W TX. Also E ND and N KS.

Friday (Day 5), a cold rain and some snow crosses the C and E Corn Belt into the C Appalachians. Low temps will be in the mid 30's F. Stormy conditions will be common for week #2, across much of the nation (8-14 day upper left).

The experimental 3-4 week outlook (through April 29) calls for drier than normal in the Gulf States/Southeast, and wetter than normal in the Pac NW and North Plains. The remainder, from CA to ME, and the Mid-Atlantic too shows normal precipitation. More freezing Corn Belt weather is on near term maps for around the 15-16th?

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