LATE WEEK WEATHER TRENDS FOR THE NORTHERN MIDDLE …

LATE WEEK WEATHER TRENDS FOR THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, NEW YORK & NEW

ENGLAND

FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE, LLC

Friday, March 24, 2017

3:00 AM

COLD PATTERN EASES CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS

1. OVERALL THE NEXT 2 WEEKS LOOK TO FEATURE A FAIRLY BLAND TEMPERATURE PATTERN...

2. IT IS LIKELY A COUPLE OF TRUE SPRING FEVER TYPE DAYS WILL POP-UP IN THE COMING DAYS; MOVING INTO VERY LATE MARCH THERE IS ALMOST NO WAY TO STOP A WARM DAY OR TWO FROM DEVELOPING...

3. BUT GIVEN THE RECENT PROPENSITY FOR COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, SOLIDLY COLDER THAN NORMAL DAYS WILL SHOW UP FROM TIME TO TIME...

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO HARASS PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

1. AN AREA OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE A TRANSITION TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPES...

2. OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POCKETS OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS PLAGUE PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA/NJ, WESTERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

TEMPERATURE TRENDS

As we move into the closing days of March, we are seeing a trend similar to one that reared its head during February develop across the central U.S. That is the development of a summer-like temperature pattern with widespread 70's and 80's shifting from the Plains into the Midwest. During February, the warmth that developed across the central U.S. eventually overwhelmed the eastern U.S. and pushed the Northeast into a well above normal temperature pattern.

I think this will eventually be the case again, but it is not going to happen soon. A shift into a long running above normal pattern should eventually takeover during the mid and late spring period (generally mid-April onward). But in the short-term, we will have a

variable pattern that for the most part average fairly close to normal.

2 allows this upcoming 10 to 14 day period to

Even before any of the warmth building off to our west can get here we will likely experience a couple of true spring fever days. It may be tough to forecast the warm days well in advance, but when the stars align (lots of sun, light westerly winds, mild mid-level temps and rising pressures) a late March of early April day and quickly flip it into a top 10 spring / early summer day with highs jumping into the 70's.

On the flip side, the potential for a few days over the next week or two to run colder than normal is also quite high. While I do not see another bitter cold arctic air mass waiting in the wings, it does look like at least a couple more polar high pressure centers will settle southward over the next couple of weeks. This should allow at least a few days to average cooler than normal, but not the truly bitter cold days like we have seen several times during this much colder than normal March.

So, in summary, a more typical late March temperature pattern is in the process of evolving. The next 2-week period will be quite variable with an overall near normal average that will be a product of a couple of very warm, spring fever days mixed with a few cooler than normal days. Eventually the pattern fully transitions into a long running above normal regime once fully into mid-April.

In the short-term, today on through the weekend into at least early next week, the coolness will out-duel warmth, once north of NYC. Some very warm temps will develop across parts of southern and western PA and possibly even far western NY. A slight shift in the low-level pressure pattern would send the warm air quickly northward into most of eastern PA/NJ, eastern NY and New England. But cold high pressure pressing southward from eastern Canada will likely be able to hold off the warmth across southern PA and keep much of eastern NY and new England firmly entrenched in a cool, raw air mass through the weekend on into at least the middle of next week. There is big-time error potential with the temperature forecast over the next few days, but for eastern NY and New England I would bet cool conditions winning out overall.

DISRUPTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOK

OVERVIEW: Before I discuss the short-term issues, a thought a brief mention of the powerful wind event that swept across parts of New England Wednesday was appropriate. The Northeast section of the country has seen several powerful / damaging wind events over the past 4 weeks. Almost every state across the Northeast has experienced at least one damaging wind event since late February, and some areas have seen multiple high wind events. Here alone in Connecticut, 4 persons have lost their lives over the past 10 days due to strong winds toppling trees or large limbs. That is an incredible number of deaths given that none were attributed to severe thunderstorm, tornado, hurricane or flood events.

While many areas saw strong winds and some damage Wednesday, a truly powerful wind event raked portions of central & northern New Hampshire with wind speeds estimated to have exceeded 80 mph. Tree damage was excessive in some communities and power pole destruction was more typical of a strong tornado event. All in all, this was an

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3 exceptional high wind event and was likely caused by a special combination of atmospheric conditions and local terrain enhancement.

Today: As milder air streams into the Northeast today, scattered areas of generally light precipitation will spread across the region. The precipitation will likely fall in the form of a mix of light snow, sleet, freezing rain and plain rain this morning as it moves across into parts of the region. The main precip shield will stay across western, central and northern NY on across portions of western and northern Massachusetts and VT/NH and western / southern Maine. There will be a quick transition to mostly light rain, but some light coatings of snow to possibly an inch or two may be realized before the flip to rain occurs. I am not looking for any widespread plowable snow amounts but a general 1 to 3-inch snowfall could occur across parts of Upstate NY, far northern Massachusetts and portions of VT & NH on into western and southern Maine. Also the potential for some pockets of light freezing rain is in play across portions of western Massachusetts and VT & NH, into western Maine. No truly serious ice accumulation is expected, but it only takes a trace of ice to cause some issues. The could be some minor coatings of snow or snow/sleet mix across parts of eastern PA/northern NJ, southeastern NY and interior Southern New England before a quick change to light rain occurs, but for the most part only scattered light shower activity is likely across eastern PA/NJ, southeastern NY and much of CT, RI and southern Massachusetts with some areas staying dry.

Far northern and eastern Maine will likely stay mainly dry today.

This first slug of moisture will exit offshore late tonight and early Saturday. If enough dry air can filter back into the region early in the day, Saturday could turn into a pleasant day across the region with any partial sunshine quickly producing milder temps. But right now it looks like the strength of the cold high to the north will be strong enough to keep most areas in a cool, if not cold and raw maritime air mass.

Sunday: A complicated forecast is in play Sunday. A frontal boundary and a weak wave of low pressure will be pressing into the region at the same time a mass of colder air will be pressing southward into portions of the region. There is considerable debate about how much precip can develop Sunday and what form it might take. Right now, I favor scattered rain showers or light rain occurring across portions of eastern PA/NJ, much of NY State and much of Southern New England. I would not rule out a few pockets of freezing rain or some sleet, but this looks more like a light rain or shower event for PA/NJ/NY/CT/MA/RI.

Further north rain still might have the upper hand, but it is certainly close enough to consider pockets of mixed precip occurring across scattered areas of northern VT, northern NH and central & northern Maine. I am not sure we are going to see any disruptive snow / sleet amounts but some light accumulations are a reasonable expectation. Maybe the bigger worry could be the potential for some light ice accumulations, especially across the high terrain areas of VT/NH and northern Maine. All in all, I do not want to overstate the winter threat and in the grand scheme of things this is likely a minor weather event, the potential for some light snow / sleet or ice accumulations does make it an interesting setup.

Meteorologist John Bagioni FAX-ALERT WEATHER SERVICE, LLC

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4 BURLINGTON, CT Tel. (860) 675-9091, cell: (860) 930-6534 email: john@

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