Updated Funding Need, Program-Change Scenarios, and other ...

Updated Funding Need, Program-Change Scenarios, and other Planning Considerations

CVRP Work Group #3 (4 Apr. 2019, Sacramento CA) Brett Williams, PhD ? Senior Principal Advisor, EV Programs, CSE John Anderson ? Research Analyst, CSE

With thanks to Amy Lastuka, Michelle Jones, and others at CSE and CARB

Outline

I. Updated FY 201920 Funding Need (including FY 18?19 shortfall) II. Updated Three-Year Funding Need (SB 1275) III. Updated Funding Need for 5M EVs ('18?'19 Budget Act)

? Context: Private-investment estimates

IV. Program-Change Scenario Estimates V. Discussion: Funding Needs and Program Changes

Appendix

? Caveats; previous versions from 22 March 2019 CVRP Work Group

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Updated FY 201920 Funding Need

Including FY 2018?19 Shortfall

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Method "...all models are wrong; some are useful" ?George Box

Extrapolate trends in EV sales volume

Calculate CVRP demand as a percentage of the market

Assign a percentage of

CVRP to Increased Rebates /

adjust

Estimate funding required

4

Extrapolations

Monthly sales data

? Source: new-vehicle registrations (IHS), March 2010 ? December 2018 ? Vehicle categories created:

1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) 2. Range-extended battery electric vehicle (BEVx)* 3. Tesla Model 3: "Medium," "low" scenarios 4. Tesla Model S 5. Tesla Model X 6. Chevrolet Bolt 7. Other battery electric vehicles (BEV) 8. Fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV)

Rebate data

? Source: CVRP rebates (public dashboard), March 2010 ? November 2018

? "Current program" design (after lowering of income cap) = Nov. 2016 ? Nov. 2018

? Vehicle Categories created: 9. Zero-emission motorcycle (ZEM) 10. Tesla Model 3: "High" scenario

* Receives a BEV rebate. See for more detail.

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To date = BMW i3 REx.

Updated Percent of Market Rebated Before and After the Income Cap (illustrative eras)

"Before" era excludes anomalous run-up to income cap

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"After" = after the most recent change in income cap

Includes all PHEV, BEVx, BEV, and FCEV rebates from CVRP

Calculate CVRP demand as a percentage of the market

Percentage of the EV market rebated:

November 2016 ? November 2018

PHEV

44%

BEVx

43%

Tesla Model 3

48%

Tesla Model S

31%

Tesla Model X

31%

Chevrolet Bolt

54%

Other BEV

72%

FCEV

90%

ZEM

n.a.*

Extrapolate trends in EV sales volume

Calculate CVRP demand as a percentage of the market

* Data not available to calculate a percentage for the ZEM category;

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the overall BEV percentage is assumed for the ZEM category in the projections

Percentage Assumed to Be Increased Rebates

for Lower-Income Consumers

Participants that received an Increased Rebate: Nov. 2016 ? Nov. 2018

PHEV BEVx Tesla Model 3 Tesla Model S Tesla Model X Chevrolet Bolt Other BEV FCEV ZEM

Increased Rebate Percentage 10.2% 8.2% 3.3% 2.1% 2.9% 6.5% 12.4% 5.8%

Not eligible for increased rebates

Extrapolate trends in EV sales volume

Calculate CVRP demand as a percentage of the

market

Assign a percentage to Increased

Rebates / adjust

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