NWS Provision of



New Mission Need or Requirement Request16-044NWS Provision of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) ForecastsDate submitted: 12/14/2016Revised: 3/26/2018CONTACT INFORMATIONRequest OriginatorLisa Schmitlisa.schmit@952-361-6671Office: NOAA/NWS/WFO MPXDate: 08/23/2016Local Office / Management Concurrence (CaRDS Tier 1 Clearance)Daniel Lunadaniel.luna@952-361-6671Office: NOAA/NWS/WFO MPXDate: 08/23/2016Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) ForecastsStatement of Mission Need or RequirementMission Need or RequirementREQUIREMENTNational Weather Service (NWS) produce and disseminate Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) forecasts. JUSTIFICATIONHeat is a major weather-related killer, and therefore deserves the utmost attention if we are to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation. According to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), 2,630 workers suffered from heat illness and 18 died from heat stroke and related causes on the job in 2014. The National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research found that 52 football players died over the period 1995 to 2012 from exertional heat stroke (EHS). While the legacy heat index is useful for sedentary populations, it does not appropriately address Exertional Heat Illness (EHI) and Exertional Heat Stroke (EHS) threats. Based upon engagement with core partners, namely Emergency Management Officials, the NWS has identified the need to provide to the public, forecasts of a parameter that will address heat risk to active persons. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a composite parameter that estimates the effect of temperature, humidity, wind chill, and solar radiation on humans. WBGT is becoming an increasingly requested parameter by partners in Decision Support Service (DSS) activities. Research studies have shown that WBGT is a more effective means of assessing heat risk to persons involved in physical activity. Twenty three states in the U.S. have WBGT policies in place for heat safety, but we are providing none of them with forecasts or information to carry out those policies.The need for NWS forecasts of WBGT on a nationwide scale has been exhibited in various ways. Partners at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Center for Disease Control (CDC) Heat Health Summit in October of 2014, agreed on the need to incorporate WBGT into the NDFD suite of parameters. The military has used the WBGT for over half a century to assess vulnerability to heat-related illness during training exercises, and experienced a resultant profound reduction in EHI during said exercises. OSHA considers the use of a WBGT meter to be the most accurate way to measure heat exposure in real-time applications. Various athletic associations endorse the WBGT as the parameter that best captures heat risk for athletes. The Korey Stringer Institute and the National Athletic Trainers’ Association have established guidelines to prevent heat illness in sport (Figure 1). Furthermore, many university sports programs, professional sports teams, and all marathon events use the WBGT. 17125951714500Figure 1. States that have implemented WBGT policiesTime SensitivityGiven the deep and persistent need our partners have expressed for WBGT forecasts, in conjunction with the proven validity of said data, national implementation by Q4 of FY18 is requested. Existing Operational GapsThe heat index (apparent temperature) parameter is not allowing forecasters to meet the decision support needs of their core partners. CaRDS approved Requirement: 16-005 A Nationally Consistent, Science-based Approach to Identify Potentially Dangerous Heat Events was approved by the PIC and is currently assigned to STI for review. 16-005 focuses on Heat Impact Levels (HIL) and does not currently address WBGT. Given finite values of WBGT are needed to provide DSS to safety officials for decision-making purposes, historical risk probabilities provided by the HIL are insufficient to fulfill this need. For example, during the warm season, NWS forecasters across the CONUS, from Tulsa, OK to Minneapolis, MN to Raleigh, NC, to Burlington, VT are contacted by safety officials to provide WBGT forecasts for their events, which include but are not limited to High School athletics, training exercises, and races. Said officials need WBGT to determine whether activities should be shortened, delayed, or even cancelled. Having WBGT available as an hourly NDFD parameter would provide a consistent approach nationwide, while also empowering our users to access the data without needing to call the WFO. Furthermore, it would enhance our private sector partners as they would be able to incorporate the WBGT parameter into their systems and apps. Currently, methods being provided for WBGT are highly inconsistent among local offices, and incorporating the WBGT into NDFD would stop the rash of methods being developed on the local level to fulfill DSS needs.-3505201066800034747201524000Figure 2. Examples of various depictions of forecast WBGT values from WFOsProvision of hourly forecasts of WBGT would allow forecasters to better serve and collaborate with these partners, and improve weather decision services for a major weather-related killer in the United States. Multiple studies between the NWS Twin Cities (WFO MPX) and regional partners which assess the relationship between heat morbidity and WBGT, have proven that WBGT is more deeply correlated with heat-related emergency department visits (see details in Background section). Such results have driven policy changes such as the Minnesota State High School League, which has replaced Heat Index with WBGT as the decision-making parameter for heat. Despite all the aforementioned partners utilizing the WBGT for determination of heat hazards and impacts (section 1.1), the NWS does not currently provide hourly forecasts of WBGT in a consistent, official manner. Providing hourly forecasts of WBGT would support partners’ efforts to reduce the risk of heat-related illness and death in outdoor workers and athletes.Justification and Benefits to the NWSStrategic Drivers and MandatesTable 2.1: Justification Does the requirement address a mandate by NOAA, DOC, OMB, Executive Order, or Law?NIs the requirement needed to satisfy a specific external organization’s needs?Y Does the requirement address a specific DOC, NOAA, or NWS strategic initiative? Y Explanation of justification:Providing hourly forecasts of the WBGT would fulfill the needs of the states that have WBGT policies in place, as well as assist partners such as OSHA, military officials, and athletic associations. This also addresses five of the strategies of Goal 1 of the NWS Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap 2.0 (“Improve weather decision services for events that threaten lives and livelihoods.”).BenefitsTable 2.2: Benefit to the NWSDescribe how the request will benefit NWS’ mission to protect life and property.Describe how the request will help the NWS better serve our partners and the public.Describe how the request will improve how NWS operates.Describe how the request will help NWS be a better steward of government resources (e.g., time or money).Explanation of benefits to NWS:The goal of building a Weather-Ready Nation cannot be attained when 23 states in the U.S. have WBGT policies in place for heat safety, but we are providing none of them with forecasts or information to carry out those policies. Furthermore, 51% of heat-related emergency department visits from Hennepin County Medical Center during an 8-year period occurred when the Heat Index (our only current official heat parameter) was below our advisory threshold (95 degrees); we therefore failed to warn a significant percent of our population, which is mission critical. Moreover, internal consistency from government agency to agency would be achieved, given our peers in OSHA and the armed forces utilize WBGT criteria for outdoor worker and military personnel safety. Including WBGT as a gridded parameter will directly fulfill the mission of protecting life related to heat. National Service ProgramTable 3.1: Identification of lead National Service ProgramProgram NameXProgram NameXProgram NameXAviationTropicalPublicXFire WeatherWinter WeatherSpace WeatherMarineClimateTsunamiSevere WeatherWater ResourcesOverarching (broad cross-cutting)Estimated Resource NeedsWBGT is calculated based on three different temperature measurements: ‘dry bulb’ or ambient air, ‘wet bulb’, and ‘black bulb’ temperatures (see Appendix A). Currently black bulb and wet bulb temperatures are not available as a ‘direct’ measurement for NWS sites.An option is to calculate parameters needed for WBGT for which the NWS does not have direct measurements. Bandwith issues will be negligible given the WBGT could be calculated at the National level from elements already contained in GFE. Depending on the final solution, it is imaginable that further monetary resources could be requested to equip Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) sites (especially in urban areas) with black globe thermometers so that the WBGT forecasts could be verified based on direct measurements, and real-time data disseminated.It is recommended that the WBGT forecasts be provided on an hourly basis and incorporated into the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) as a means for dissemination and access.Relationships with Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors such as the Korey Stringer Institute, along with already-established partners in the medical community, could assist in creating communication and outreach to update the heat-related materials used for the national Spring and Summer Awareness Campaigns. Note: As stated in section 1.3, CaRDS approved Requirement: 16-005 A Nationally Consistent, Science-based Approach to Identify Potentially Dangerous Heat Events has been approved by the PIC and assigned to STI for review. 16-005 focuses on Heat Impact Levels (HIL) and does not currently address WBGT. Given finite values of WBGT are needed to provide DSS to safety officials for decision-making purposes, historical risk probabilities provided by the HIL are insufficient to fulfill this need. Furthermore, given there is not climatological data on a national scope for WBGT, since it involves parameters that are not documented by the NWS or any known climatology partners, calculating a HIL for WBGT is not possible. Supporting both 16-005 and this request for WBGT forecasts enhances our provision of heat information such that we are serving the general population as well as physically active populations. These two requests are not duplicative, but complementary in the provision of IDSS for heat. Appendix ABACKGROUNDThe Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a composite parameter that estimates the effect of temperature, humidity, wind chill, and solar radiation on humans. Figure 1. Comparison of parameters used in WBGT and Heat IndexThe WBGT can be calculated using the following formula: WBGT = 0.7Tw + 0.2Tg + 0.1TdTw?is the wet bulb temperature, which indicates humidityTg?is the globe temperature, which indicates radiant heatTd?is the ambient air (dry) temperature.Local Weather Forecast Offices (WFO's) currently operationally produce Td. Tw and Tg can be calculated* and added to Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE). The capability to auto-populate the calculated WBGT forecast grids down to an hourly temporal resolution can be incorporated in GFE/NDFD.*See Estimation of Black Globe Temperature for Calculation of the WBGT Indexat Example. Hourly maximum WBGT in GFEMultiple studies are underway between the National Weather Service (NWS) Twin Cities (WFO MPX) and regional partners (including Hennepin County Medical Center (HCMC), the Minnesota Department of Health, and the University of Minnesota). These studies, which assess the relationship between heat morbidity and WBGT, continually prove that WBGT is more deeply correlated with heat-related emergency department (ED) visits. The results of one such study illustrated (see Figures 3 and 4) the bulk of the heat-related ED visits in the Twin Cities Metro area between 2007 and 2014 occurred when heat index values were below the Twin Cities Metro advisory criteria of 95 degrees (and therefore decision assistance and threat messaging likely fell short of expectations and needs). The following graphics illustrates this issue.Figure 3. Heat-related ED visits in the Twin Cities Metro Area between 2007 and 2014 peakedwhen heat index values were below the Twin Cities Metro advisory criteria of 95 degrees F.Figure 4. Same day max WBGT/max Heat Index and heat-related emergency department cases. Twin Cities Metro heat advisories are issued at 95 degrees F. The growing need for WBGT forecasts is further exemplified by the collaboration that has occurred between WFO MPX and the Hennepin County Emergency Management Office (responsible for a population of nearly 1.2 million), who has funded six WBGT sensors strategically placed around the Twin Cities Urban area to fill WBGT observation gaps (see Figure 5). While not every NWS office is currently privy to WBGT measurement data, collaborative efforts like that with Hennepin county appeal to leveraging partnerships to fill gaps in observations. Additionally, many potential users of the WBGT forecast data have hand-held WBGT instrumentation, and those who do not are able to utilize a chart (see Figure 6) to estimate WBGT.Figure 5. Location of WBGT sensors strategically placed around the Twin Cities Urban area by the Hennepin County Emergency Management Office to fill WBGT observation gaps.Figure 6.References on the use of WBGT:OSHA Safety: Soccer Heat Guidelines: Athletic Guidance for SchoolsGeorgia: : : Carolina: : in National Athletic Trainers' Association Position Statement: Exertional Heat Illnesses Workplace Heat Law (May only be indoor WBGT - no solar)Documented in International Standards (ISO 7243). ................
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