Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios - Yardeni Research
Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 21, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Joe Abbott
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Bulls & Bears Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 AAII Sentiment Bull & Bears
1 2 3 4 5 6-12
September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bulls & Bears
Figure 1.
6
6
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
5
Ratio
Ratio
5
Bull/Bear
Sep 6
1.00
4
Ratio*
Sep 13
1.15
Sep 20
0.96
4
3
3
2
2
1
9/20 1
0
0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
80
80
75
Percentage
Bulls Bears
75
70
Bulls
Sep 6
29.7
29.7
Sep 13
32.4
28.2
70
65
Bears
Sep 20
30.0
31.4
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
9/20 30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
50
50
45
Percentage
Correction
Correction
Sep 6
40.6
40
Sep 13
39.4
Sep 20
38.6
35
45
40 9/20
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: Investors Intelligence.
Page 1 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
Figure 2.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
5200
4700
4200
9/20
3700
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 3.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
41600 36600 9/20 31600 26600 21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 2 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
Figure 4.
5200
4700 4200
3700
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
3200
(daily, ratio scale)
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
5200
4700
4200
9/20
3700
3200
2700
2200
1700
1200
700
200
200
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.
41600 36600 31600 26600
21600
Figure 5.
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)
16600
11600
41600 36600 9/20 31600 26600 21600
16600
11600
6600
6600
1600
1600
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Page 3 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
Figure 6.
40
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
20
20
0
0
9/20
-20
-20
-40
-40
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Figure 7.
40
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
20
20
0
0
9/20
-20
-20
-40
-40
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 4 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
AAII Sentiment
Figure 8.
100
100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio* (36.2)
75
75
50
50
9/14
25
25
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
5
5
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio (0.6)
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
9/14
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
90
90
Latest Readings
80
Bulls (26.1)
Bulls Bears 80
70
Bears (46.0)
Sep 7
18.1
53.3
Sep 14
26.1
46.0 70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
9/14
20
20
10
10
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
Page 5 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Bull & Bears
Figure 9.
5.5
140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
5.0
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
4.5
120
Consumer Confidence
4.0
Expectations Index
100 3.5
3.0
80
2.5
Aug
2.0 60
1.5
1.0
9/20 40
.5
.0
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 10.
6
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO
S&P 500 Forward P/E* (16.3) 5
Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (1.0) 4
3
2
30
25
20 9/16
15
10
1
9/20
0
5
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.
Page 6 / September 21, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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