Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500

Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.

August 31, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Stocks & Politics

1

First & Second Terms

2

Presidential Cycles

3-4

S&P 500 Index & P/E

5

Misc.

6-7

August 31, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Stocks & Politics

Figure 1.

4815

4015 3215

S&P 500 DURING SIX-MONTH PERIODS AROUND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (weekly, ratio scale)

2415

1615

815

4815 Aug 4015

3215 2415 1615

815



3.5 -8.9 11.4 6.8 -0.7 0.5 -3.0 7.3 8.7 10.5 7.1 21.3 -18.3 9.0 -42.7 7.7 8.9

15

15

51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas in green (red) are when the S&P 500 is up (down) during the six months from September to February around presidential elections. Numbers above timeline are percentage changes over those six-month periods. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

6004

5004

FDR

4004

HST

3004

2004

DDE

JFK

RMN JEC

LBJ

GRF

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS

1004

BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS

(ratio scale)

RWR GHWB

WJC

GWB

BHO

DJT

6004 5004 Aug 4004 3004

2004

1004



285.6

118.7

78.7

3.5 26.3

220.9

203.0

-31.6

140.3 71.2

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data. Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Data above timeline are percentage changes in S&P 500 for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / August 31, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

5004 4004 Roosevelt 3004

2004

First & Second Terms

Eisenhower Kennedy Nixon

Truman

Johnson Ford

Carter

Bush I

Bush II Obama

Reagan

Clinton

5004 Trump Aug 4004

3004

2004

1004

1004

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL FIRST TERMS

(ratio scale)



149.3

74.8 75.6

45.8 13.7

26.3 23.2

56.9 70.0

-8.2

57.9

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent first term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

4904

4204 3504

Roosevelt

2804

2104

1404

Eisenhower

Nixon

Reagan

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL SECOND TERMS

704

(ratio scale)

Clinton Bush II Obama

4904 Aug 4204

3504 2804 2104 1404

704



-38.4

24.5

-9.0

66.1

78.2 -25.5 52.2

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent second term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / August 31, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Presidential Cycles

Figure 5.

44290033

3503

2803

S&P 500 INDEX* &

2103

FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now

1403

(average = 5.2%, ratio scale)

703

Aug

44290033 3503

2803

2103

1403

703



-11.9 46.6 -38.6 -17.9 30.7 10.3 -6.6 -14.3 23.1 9.1 -11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0 -13.0 3.0 23.5 29.6 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. Source: Standard & Poor's.

3 25

Figure 6.

44290033 3503

2803

S&P 500 INDEX* &

2103

SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now

1403

(average = 4.8%, ratio scale)

703

Aug

44290033 3503

2803

2103

1403

703



-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4

3

3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price data Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 3 / August 31, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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