Trends in U.S. Intention-to- Stay Rates of International ...

APRIL 2020

Trends in U.S. Intention-toStay Rates of International Ph.D. Graduates Across Nationality and STEM Fields

CSET Issue Brief

AUTHORS Remco Zwetsloot Jacob Feldgoise James Dunham

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

3

International Ph.D. Graduates in U.S. STEM Fields

5

Trends in Intention-to-Stay Rates Across Nationality and STEM Fields

7

Intention-to-Stay Rates by STEM Field

7

Intention-to-Stay Rates by Nationality

8

Intention-to-Stay Rates by Nationality and STEM Field

9

Country Profile: China

10

Country Profile: India

12

Conclusion

14

Data Notes

16

Acknowledgments

16

Endnotes

17

Executive Summary

This Issue Brief assesses how many international Ph.D. graduates intend to stay in the United States after completing their degrees, and how these intentions differ across fields and nationalities. All analysis is based on data from the National Science Foundation's Survey of Earned Doctorates, an annual census of all Ph.D. graduates from U.S. universities (see Box 1). Past studies show that intention-to-stay rates, the focus of this paper, correlate strongly with actual stay rates.

The results speak to recent debates about the continued ability of the United States to attract and retain global talent. Many fear that an increase in international competition is eroding the country's talent and innovation assets.1 Chinese students feature especially prominently in these debates due to concerns about technology transfer, and a widespread perception exists of a "reverse brain drain" of Chinese citizens leaving the United States.2

We find little evidence of decreasing U.S. attractiveness either among international Ph.D. students in general or among Chinese students specifically. Instead, we find that:

International students account for a large portion of U.S. STEM Ph.D. graduates, with large variation across fields. International graduates are most numerous in computer science and engineering (around 60 percent) and least numerous in the health and biological sciences (below 30 percent). In nearly all STEM fields, the proportion of graduates who are international remained constant or decreased slightly between 2010 and 2017.

Intention-to-stay rates among international Ph.D. graduates are 70 percent or higher in all STEM fields. They are highest--between 85 and 90 percent--in computer science, biology, and engineering. Across all STEM fields, intention-to-stay rates either held steady or increased slightly between 2000 and 2017.

Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 3

 Intention-to-stay rates are highest--above 85 percent--among students from Iran, India, and China. Students from richer countries, such as European Union member states and Canada, intend to stay at lower rates (around 75 percent). Intention-to-stay rates increased for students from most countries of origin between 2000 and 2017.

The two most common countries of origin among international Ph.D. graduates are China and India. Looking closely at these graduates, we find that: Among graduates from China, engineering (40 percent) and the physical sciences (20 percent) are the most popular fields of study. In these and most other STEM fields, intention-to-stay rates were around 85 to 90 percent in 2017. Rates declined somewhat in the 2000?2010 period, but mostly remained constant between 2010 and 2017. Among graduates from India, engineering (40 percent) and the biological and health sciences (cumulatively 30 percent) are the most popular fields of study. In these and most other STEM fields intention-to-stay rates were between 85 and 95 percent in 2017, with little change between 2000 and 2017.

Box 1. Data: The National Science Foundation's Survey of Earned Doctorates

This Issue Brief is based on data from the NSF's Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED), which has been administered annually to all Ph.D. graduates from U.S. universities since 1957. The survey is administered to approximately 55,000 individuals who obtain degrees from 431 universities.

The survey asks Ph.D. graduates for a range of background information, including their demographic and educational background, degree field, and post-graduation plans. Response rates for the survey are consistently above 90 percent.3

SED data is not publicly available due to privacy considerations. Researchers can request access to the data through an NSF license request. The use of NSF data does not imply NSF endorsement of the research, research methods, or conclusions contained in this report.

Further relevant information about the SED and the data reported here is discussed in the "Data Notes" at the end of this Brief. The NSF also has extensive documentation for the SED available on its website, including a copy of the full survey and an annual report with detailed data tables.4

Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 4

International Ph.D. Graduates in U.S. STEM Fields

This Brief focuses on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Following SED classifications, we distinguish between seven broad STEM fields: Agricultural Sciences/National Resources ("Agriculture"), the Biological/Biomedical Sciences, Computer and Information Sciences ("Computer Science"), Engineering, Health Sciences, Mathematics, and the Physical Sciences. Each of these fields encompasses between four and 40 "fine fields," for example nuclear physics within the physical sciences. We exclude fields within the humanities and social sciences, and professional degrees such as business and education.5

Figure 1 shows that the proportion of Ph.D. graduates who are from abroad varies significantly across the seven STEM fields. At the high end, roughly 60 percent of SED respondents in Computer Sciences and Engineering are international. At the low end, less than 30 percent of respondents in the Biological/Biomedical Sciences and Health Sciences are international. Mathematics, the Physical Sciences, and Agriculture fall in the middle (40 to 50 percent). Between 2010 and 2017, the percentage of international Ph.D. graduates remained stable or fell slightly in all fields, with the exception of Computer Science.

Figure 1. Percentage of STEM Ph.D. graduates who are international by field, 2000?2017.

Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates.

Table 1 displays the absolute number of graduates by field and specific countries of origin for international graduates. To give a representative picture of the recent graduate pool (rather than a one-year snapshot), we display the

Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 5

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download