United States Agriculture World Agricultural Production

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series WAP 11-22 November 2022

World Agricultural Production

Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher

USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat production at 34.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt or 5 percent from last month, but down 5 percent from last year's record. Harvested area is estimated at 13.1 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 0.1 mha, or less than 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.63 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 5 percent from last month, but down 6 percent from last year's record.

Sources: MODIS 8-day NDVI Anomaly Composite (NASA); GeoCover LandCover 2010 Agricultural Mask

Overall, wheat passed through the flowering crop stage and into early grain fill with ample moisture availability in September and October. Peak flowering is typically early to midSeptember. At present, root zone soil moisture is average to above-average for the major growing regions, further supporting yield potential.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

Source: USDA PSD Online

The recent satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) depicts aboveaverage crop vigor, especially in the wheat belt of Western Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

2

Global Market Analysis

November 2022

Argentina Wheat: Drought Cuts Production

Source: USDA/NASA GLAM, MODIS Aqua 8-day NDVI

Argentina wheat production for marketing year 2022/23 is estimated at 15.5 million metric tons, down 11 percent from last month and 30 percent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at 2.67 tons per hectare, down 11 percent from last month, and 21 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 11 percent from last year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

3

Global Market Analysis

November 2022

Source: USCB/CHIRPS 2.0 Precipitation Data

Yield is down month-to-month because of continued dry conditions throughout crop areas in Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and Santa Fe, which together account for about 80 percent of total wheat production. Crop conditions, as shown by the satellite-derived MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), were below-average throughout the wheat growing regions. In Buenos Aires, the NDVI values throughout the month of October, when the crop was flowering, were the lowest values in the history of the 20-year data series. Rainfall occurred at the end of October, but it was not enough to boost yield. Harvest will begin in mid-to-late November. (For more information, please contact Katie.McGaughey@.)

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

4

Global Market Analysis

November 2022

Kazakhstan Wheat: Increased Production Driven by Favorable Weather

USDA estimates Kazakhstan wheat production for marketing year 2022/23 at 14.0 million metric tons, up 8 percent from last month and 19 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.10 tons per hectare, up 8 percent from last month and 18 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares, unchanged last month and slightly up from last year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

5

Global Market Analysis

November 2022

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