Chapter 8 Elections and Campaigns



Chapter 8 Elections and Campaigns (über-notes)

I. Presidential vs Congressional Campaigns

a. Two phases: getting nominated and getting elected

b. Getting nominated

i. Getting a name on the ballot

ii. An individual effort (vs org effort in Europe)

iii. Parties play a minor role (compared with europe)

iv. Parties used to play a major role

c. Major differences

i. Presidential races are more competitive.

1. House races have lately been one sided for Dems, (until 2010)

Interactive link!

2. *Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55% of the popular vote (electoral way different- example…. electoral vote 2008 Obama 365 (68%) McCain 173 (32%) vs. 2008 pop vote obama-53% McCain 46%)

3. Most house incumbents are reelected (more than 90% in any given year) #1 incumbents reelected in government) (Senators appx 80% in any given year) pd 3 lecture

ii. Fewer people vote in congressional elections

1. Unless election coincides with presidential election (on year election)

2. Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)

iii. Congressional incumbents can service their constituents

1. Can take credit for governmental actions even if they didn’t have much to do with them

2. President can’t take credit, power is not local

iv. Congressional candidates can duck responsibility

1. “I didn’t do it, the people in Washington did.”

2. President is stuck with blame-See current obama approval ratings!

3. However, local candidates can suffer when their leaders economic policies fail

v. Benefit of presidential coattails has declined

1. Congressional elections have become largely indep.

2. reduces power of party. (see ch 7)

d. Running for president

i. Getting mentioned

1. name recognition big- also use reporters trips, speeches (name recog reason for incumbents always winning as well)

2. Sponsoring legislation, *(reason for incumbent power), from a large state important

3. Money- Curent law of land is McCain-Feingold Act. (in terms of campaign finance) parts were overruled by Citizens united decision of supreme court- very recent- will not be on test (probably))

a. Individuals can give $1,000, PACs (political action committee) $5,000

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4. strategy and themes lecture pd 6

a. Incumbent v. challenger: defend or attack?

b. Setting the tone (positive or negative)

c. Developing a theme:trust confidence and so on

d. Choosing a target voter: who is audience?

e. Getting elected to congress

i. Malapportionment and gerrymandering

ii. Establishing the size of the house

iii. Winning the primary

1. Ballot procedures

2. developing a personal following for the party’s nomination

3. Incumbent advantage

iv. Sophomore surge

1. Using the perks of office

2. campaigning for/against congress

v. Impact of the way we elect individuals to congress

1. Legislators closely tied to local concerns

2. Weak party leadership

f. Primary vs general campaign

i. Different primaries

ii. Differences between primaries and general campaigns

1. What works in a general election may not work in a primary

a. Different voters, workers and media attention

b. Must mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nomination

c. Must play politics of activists- GOP stay more right, liberals stay more left than a general election

2. Iowa Caucuses- the first primary

a. Must do well to be considered viable

b. Winners tend to be “ideologically correct”

c. Can give dark horse campaign legitimacy (bill Clinton) PD 3 LECT

d. How works-(leave space) period 6

3. primary vs general election

a. Stay right and left in primary, move to center for general election (Clinton vs obama)

iii. Two kinds of campaign issues

1. Position issues

2. Valence issues

iv. TV, Debates, and Direct mail

1. Paid ads “spots”

a. Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome, spots tend to cancel each other out

b. Most voters rely on many sources of info.

2. News broadcasts (visuals)

a. Cost little

b. May have greater credibility with voters (until recently with the expansion of “newsertainment” FOX, MSNBC

3. Debates

a. Usually an advantage only to the challenger

b. Primary debates kind of like “The Dating Game” so many candidates it is very tough to get a sense for what they stand for.

4. Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates.

a. Quayle and potato, Clinton and “I did not have sex with that woman”, Howard Dean and scream, Reagan and trees, Obamas minister and his speeches, Bush and speaking. Pd 6 lecture

b. Forces candidates to rely on stock “stump” speech that is the same at every campaign stop

c. Sell yourself not ideas

5. Computer (internet)

a. Makes direct mail possible inexpensively

b. Allows candidates to address specific voters or issues

II. Money

a. How important is it?

i. “money is the mothers milk of politics”

ii. Presidential candidates spent 286million in 1992 up from 177 in 1988 (1 billion in 2008!!!!!!) most expensive election in history)

iii. Are candidates being “sold” like soap? Book says answer not obvious, im saying yes.

b. The sources of campaign money

c. Campaign finance rules

i. Bipartisan campaign finance reform act of 2002-(mccain/ Feingold)

1. ban on soft money- "Hard" money is contributed directly to a candidate of a political party. It is regulated by law in both source and amount, "Soft" money is contributed to the political party as a whole- this money is almost untracable, and unlimited, so was banned by mccain feingold- (still being challenged in court)

2. Increase on individual contributions (to 2,000 per candidate per election)

d. Money and winning

i. During peacetime, presidential election are usually decided on 3 things:

1. party affiliation- (either a GOP or dem “year”)

2. State of the Economy

3. Character of the candidates here PD3

4. Incumbents also have an advantage because of the following

a. Easier to raise money- name recognition, donate to winner

b. Can provide services to constituency-Congress

c. Can use Franking privilege –mail stuff for free

d. Can get free publicity through laws, press conferences, etc.

III. What decides elections?

a. Party identification- but then dems would win every election?

i. Dems less wedded to their party

ii. GOP does better among independents (most people see themselves as….) debatably mostly marketing

iii. GOP has higher voter turnout. (remember our chart on who votes?, )

b. ISSUES

i. Most voters who switch parties do so in their own interests (Cubans exception down here)

1. they know which issues affect them personally

2. they care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, prayer, etc.)

ii. Prospective voting-

1. Know the issues and vote for the best candidate

2. Most common among activists (party loyalists)

3. Few voters use prospective voting because it requires information (and thinking)

iii. Retrospective voting

1. Judge the incumbents performance and vote accordingly

2. Have things gotten better or worse, esp economy!

3. Most elections/ voters are decided retrospectively

4. midterms- (no prez election) (2010)-voters turn against prez party. See 2010 exactly! Opposite of coattail effect.

c. Democratic coalition

i. Blacks number 1 most loyal

ii. Jews loyal as well

iii. Hispanics growing

iv. Union members high

v. Catholics, southerners- 50-50 or gone in the case of southerners

d. Republican coalition

i. Party of business and professionals

ii. Very loyal

iii. Usually wins poor vote because of retired, or socially conservative Midwest and south.

iv. Evangelical (religious) voters, new to coalition and growing and super loyal.

IV. Cynical view-Public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office.

a. Yes, but devil is in the details. And there are a lot of details if you know public policy.

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