Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical - Yardeni Research
Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,
& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
April 16, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
1
Global Growth Barometer
2
Economic Surprise Index
3
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
4
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
5
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
6
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
7
AAII Sentiment
8
Volatility
9
Volume
10
Dow Theory
11
S&P 500 Moving Averages
12-13
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
14
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016
April 16, 2020 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 1.
850
3500
S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
750
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index
650
3000 4/16
2500
550
2000
450
1500
4/16
350
1000
250
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 2.
100
3500
S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
500
900
1300 S&P 500 Index
1700
2100
3000 4/16
2500
2500
2000
2900
Initial Unemployment Claims
(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,
3300
inverted scale)
3700
1500
4100 4500
1000
4900
5300
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2042/011 2021
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / April 16, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Global Growth Barometer
Figure 3.
3500
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
3000 YRI Global Growth Barometer* (752.3) S&P 500 Index (2799.6)
2500
3500
3000 4/16
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
4/16
500
2020 2021
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 4.
200
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
175 S&P 500 Index
Brent Crude Oil Price*
150
(dollars per barrel)
125
3500
3000 4/16
2500
100
2000
75 1500
50
1000
25
4/15
0
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 2 / April 16, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Economic Surprise Index
Figure 5.
800
200
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
(percent)
600
150
400
100
200
50
0
0
-200
4/16
-50
-400
-100
4/16
-600
S&P 500 minus its
-150
200 day-moving average
-800
-200
Economic Surprise Index
-1000
-250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 6.
19
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent)
17
15
150
4/9
100
50
0
-50 13
-100 S&P 500 Forward P/E*
11
4/16
Economic Surprise Index
-150
9
-200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.
Page 3 / April 16, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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